Dodgers, Angels still fighting to stay in First Division

The Dodgers improved their status in the First Division during the weekend, but at the expense of the Angels. The Dodgers swept three games from the Orange County club, pushing themselves slightly out of the relegation zone while the Angels fell to last place in the top tier.

Don Mattingly continues to do a lot right managing the Dodgers, but his club's struggle against top clubs continues to be costly in the First Division, despite a three-game sweep of the Angels during the weekend (Cbl62/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The First Division came to August divided into two divisions, with half of the teams seriously in the fight to win the championship and the other half desperately fighting to stave off relegation to the Second Division for 2016.

The Angels and Dodgers both are in the wrong half of that mix, and that didn't change with the Dodgers sweeping the Angels in a three-game series during the weekend at Dodger Stadium. What did change is that the Dodgers no longer are the bottom team in the top tier. The Angels have taken their place.

The dramatic home run hitting of Andre Ethier lifted the Dodgers in a big way Sunday. His solo homer in the bottom of the eighth inning gave the Dodgers a 3-2 lead. His two-run homer in the bottom of the tenth gave the Dodgers a 5-3 win to go with wins of 5-3 on Saturday and 3-1 Friday.

With those victories, the Dodgers improved to 13-18 in the First Division, barely out of the relegation zone. The Dodgers are one-half game ahead of the Atlanta Braves, who are 12-18. The only club beneath the Braves is the Angels, who are defending their First Division championship from 2014 with a 5-11 performance in 2015.

The bottom two teams in the First Division are relegated to the Second Division for 2016.

The Dodgers never trailed in either of the first two games, winning Friday night behind right-hander Zack Greinke and winning Saturday afternoon behind left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Newly acquired right-hander Mat Latos wasn't bad, either, giving up one run on four hits Sunday in his six-inning Dodger debut.

The Angels are attempting to defend their First Division title from 2014 with a light schedule, which can work, but, as this season has shown, might not. The Angels have only six games left this year in the First Division, all at home – three against the Toronto Blue Jays Aug. 21-23 and three with the Dodgers Sept. 7-9.

The Angels could escape relegation by winning a majority of those games, but that remains to be seen and it will have a lot to do with how the Dodgers, Braves and Toronto Blue Jays (10-13) play out the rest of the year. Even if the Angels win a substantial portion of those six games, four or five of them, it guarantees nothing.

The Angels have the unwelcome distinction of being the best club ever relegated from the First Division, finishing 16-18 (.474 winning percentage) in 2011 and still going down. The Minnesota Twins that year turned in the worst ever performance for a First Division club with an 11-26 record (.297).

That demotion began a free fall for the Twins, who then were demoted to the Third Division for 2013 and the Fourth Division in 2014 before rising back to the Third Division this season.

Now the Twins are making a strong bid for a promotion to the Second Division as they lead the Third Division at 15-9, one-half game in front of the Arizona Diamondbacks (13-8). The Philadelphia Phillies (9-7) and Boston Red Sox (11-9) are the top teams in pursuit of those top two slots for a 2016 promotion.

The Angels barely missed promotion back to the First Division with a strong Second Division showing in 2012, but they won the Second Division easily in 2013 and took the First Division championship last season. In 2014, the Angels became the second team in as many years, and the third in four years, to win the First Division fresh in from a promotion. Now, the Angels are in danger of repeating the performance of the Texas Rangers, who won it in 2013 right off of a promotion, then bottomed into relegation a year later.

For the Dodgers, it's a matter of being unable to hold up against the better clubs, which we have seen again and again this season. Last week, the Dodgers went to Atlanta for three games against the Braves, a First Division team which, by the lights of the Major League standings, probably are the worst club in the top tier this season. But the Braves beat the Dodgers twice.

The Dodgers don't have a lot of First Division games left, either. In addition to the three in Anaheim against the Angels, they will play three against the San Francisco Giants at home Aug. 31-Sept. 2 and four in San Francisco Sept. 28-Oct. 1.

Are the Giants and Dodgers cooking a greater rivalry?

The Dodgers and San Francisco Giants are always in each other's business. But they have too seldom, in the last several decades, both been in the business of winning the championship at the same time. This year, now that it's all but certain that both clubs will be in the playoffs, they might be getting back to what once made the rivalry great.

Juan Marichal's 1965 attack against Dodgers catcher John Roseboro was a peak moment in hostilities between the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants way back when these clubs often tangled for the National League pennant (Copyright holder unknown. It is believed that this low resolution image of an event in the Dodgers-Giants rivalry that is referenced in this text about the rivalry constitutes fair use in the absence of a public domain image.).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers and San Francisco Giants came to the final week with the National League West on the line, and it's been a while since these long-time rivals really fought over anything important.

Been a while?

It almost never happens.

It's all but sacrilegious to say so in these parts, but that's just the way it is. Whatever places in the standings these clubs have occupied through the years, they somehow always shadow each other, always getting into each other's business. But as far as being a rivalry of importance throughout the game, we might just as well have written it off as an artifact of the 20th century. Twice before in the 21st century, the Dodgers and Giants finished first and second, in whatever order, in the NL West, and only one other time has that been the case since 1971. Of the episodes in which the Dodgers or Giants came up big to spoil the other's chances, they were 20th century events.

So, the Dodgers and Giants met just now at Dodger Stadium with first place on the line in the final week of the season. The Dodgers entered the series with a 4 1/2 game lead, meaning the Giants could have whittled it to 1 1/2 game with a three-game sweep going to the final weekend. It could have come off the way it has happened so many times back in history, with the Dodgers entering as the big men in the standings only to be brought back to earth by the Giants, or vice versa.

It didn't actually happen that way this time because the Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, two forces greater than history in today's baseball. Greinke and Kershaw won the last two games of the series, with Kershaw playing his characteristic all-around game Wednesday night as the Dodgers won the clincher, 9-1, in front of their home crowd.

So, the Dodgers won two of three to put the NL West in the bag for this year, but the Giants still are all but in the playoffs, needing either one win or a loss by the Milwaukee Brewers in the final weekend of the season to clinch the National League's second wildcard, in which case they are headed to Pittsburgh for the wildcard game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. And that raises the possibility that the Dodgers and Giants really aren't done with each other, yet, because they still could meet in the playoffs.

The rivalry, great as it is and has been for about the last 100-odd years, could do with that boost.

A great national rivalry is about championships. A lesser local rivalry is about Schadenfreude. That's the basic flavor of the Dodgers and Giants for about the last four decades. It's usually been about one club struggling before rising to ruin the other's aspirations. The Giants have done it more often to the Dodgers than the other way around. The Giants did it to the Dodgers in 1980, 1982, 1991 and 1997, in each case coming up from the bottom to keep the Dodgers from the top in late-season events. The Dodgers did it to the Giants in 1982 (they actually did it to each other in 1982), 1993 and 2001. We might also put 2012 in the column for the Giants, who beat the Dodgers only once in the final three-game series of the season at Dodger Stadium, but it was enough to keep the Dodgers out of wildcard contention and the Giants went on to win the World Series.

But none of those events were titan struggles. They all were one club keeping the other from celebrating, which isn't nothing, but it isn't enough to establish a championship rivalry, either. The Dodgers and Giants may be central adversaries in each other's narratives, but the central rivalries in the narrative of Major League Baseball are elsewhere. There has been, really, only one of those in the last generation, and it has all but died, as well.

We mean, of course, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, who always worked a peculiar backyard antagonism, but never became a championship rivalry – a rivalry of  importance across the game – until the Red Sox finally were just about good enough to take down the Yankees for high stakes and, then, actually were good enough to finish the job. All of America rolled its eyes at times over the national media's promotion of the Yankees and Red Sox as the only two clubs that really mattered – in relation to each other and across the game – but the national media wasn't wrong.

Starting with the first wildcard playoffs in 1995, the Yankees and Red Sox both were in the playoffs eight times in 15 seasons (1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2009), meaning they finished, in whichever order, first and second in the American League East. In 2000, the Yankees beat the second-place Red Sox by 2 1/2 games for the division, so the Yankees went to the playoffs and the Red Sox didn't.

In every season of wildcard playoffs except for this year, at least one of those clubs went to the playoffs. During the height of that rivalry, the Yankees and Red Sox met in the playoffs three times in six years (1999, 2003 and 2004), the winner of that series ultimately winning the World Series in 1999 and 2004. That rivalry mattered up until now, when it doesn't.

Those with the West Coast bias often shrugged about the Yankees and Red Sox, saying the rivalry between the Dodgers and Giants is better. But they had to argue using history, ancient history by today's short attention standards. The Dodgers and Giants have a much longer and deeper championship rivalry, and we might even say it has been broader, taking place, as it has, along two different coasts. But that was a while ago.

The Dodgers and Giants had their best days as a rivalry during the 1950s and the 1960s, finishing first and second, in whichever order, six time in 15 years across the National League, which didn't have divisions (1951, 1952, 1954, 1962, 1965 and 1966). Those days produced some of the game's most enduring moments, like Bobby Thompson's "Shot Heard 'Round the World" in 1951 to complete the Giants' surge to overtake the Dodgers in 1951, or the ghastly bat beating by Giants pitcher Juan Marichal against Dodgers catcher John Roseboro in 1965, as these clubs fought over the pennant. Those days were the height of the rivalry. When the leagues divided into divisions, the Giants and Dodgers finished one-two in the NL West in 1971.

But then came down times for the Giants, and the Dodgers wrestled with the Cincinnati Reds for the NL West through the 1970s. The rivalry made a brief comeback, of sorts, in 1982, but the Atlanta Braves prevailed, with the Dodgers finishing a game behind them and the Giants finishing a game behind the Dodgers. The Dodgers and Giants met for the final three games of the season and, after the Dodgers won the first two to eliminate the Giants, Joe Morgan hit a two-run homer for the Giants in the eighth on the last day of the season, giving his club a 5-3 win to eliminate the Dodgers.

Now, though, we've come to something like the real deal, for we're looking at the likelihood of the Dodgers and Giants both going to the playoffs, along with the possibility that they could face each other some time in October. That gave the Yankees and Red Sox real spice, those years when those two clubs would play each other 25 times.

We love the Dodgers and Giants out here. Vin Scully grew up in New York loving the Giants before launching his career of 65 years broadcasting the Dodgers, and he still always has one eye on the Giants, and that's part of what makes the whole thing work. But he doesn't often get to put both eyes on both teams playing against each other for everything. None of us do, either along the West Coast or across the country. But, maybe, that is changing this year.

No reason for Dodgers to deal on deadline

The Dodgers already have plenty enough to win this year. In order for them to have enough for winning every year, they must refrain from dealing prospect talent that gives them a chance to win every year in exchange for a pitcher who would be marginally valuable right now. It sounds like the Dodgers will play this right.

The Dodgers have moved shortstop prospect Corey Seager up to the Chattanooga Lookouts in the Southern League (Feelin' Kinda Blue/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Reports indicate that the Dodgers are going to cool it on today's trading deadline and refrain from making a deal for a pitcher, or anything else. Good.

The Dodgers have enough players to win already. It would make absolutely no sense at this point for them to trade anything of value for a two-month rental on a pitcher like Boston Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester, good as he is, or any amount of Red Sox right-hander John Lackey.

The Dodgers began the season with a $230 million player payroll. These players haven't all been golden. But they have been good enough to take a three-game lead on the San Francisco Giants in the National League West, and they still haven't really begun hitting.

The deadline arrives with the season going right for the Dodgers. They've won five straight with their 3-2, 10-inning win at Dodger Stadium Wednesday night against the Atlanta Braves. Matt Kemp is hitting .400 since the All-Star break with three homers in the last two days, and he's playing with fury we haven't seen since 2012. And the Giants have been flailing, though they snapped their six-game losing streak with a 7-5 win Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Fans always want to win every year, which is more than legitimate, but they generally want to win every year one year at a time, and you're not going to win every year that way. The management's job is to win every year. That means a good front office will hang onto prospects rather than maximize the opportunity to win this year.

But the Dodgers wouldn't maximize anything by adding a pitcher at the deadline, anyway. They've already got the best threesome going in Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu. Josh Beckett has been more than solid as a No. 4. Do they need a No. 5? Of course not.

Everyone remembers those Atlanta Braves clubs that always had a solid pitching rotation one through four, sometimes one through five, won 14 consecutive divisions and came out of it with precisely one World Championship. They were great clubs that almost never went all the way because that attribute of four or five strong starting pitchers is no advantage during the postseason.

During the regular season, when you're playing 20 games in 21 days, having four or five good starting pitchers will get you 100 wins. But during the postseason, when you're playing three games every four days or, maybe, five games every seven games, that No. 5 starter never appears. He becomes all but useless. The manager will use his one through three as often as possible. The No. 4 will get one start in a seven-game series.

If the Dodgers could add a pitcher who would be one of their best two or three starters, perhaps a deal would be worth making. But nobody on the market qualifies, including Lester, despite his 10-7, 2.52 performance this year for the Red Sox. If the Dodgers were to add Lester and make him their No. 4, then run their starters straight-up one through four during the postseason, then Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu all become less valuable because they wouldn't work as often. It would be rather too much of a good thing, and the cost would be a prospect, a good one, probably Corey Seagar or Joc Pederson for a pitcher who probably is gone after the postseason, anyway.

Lackey doesn't present quite the same problem. He's 11-7 with a 3.60 ERA. If he's on the Dodgers as their No. 4, then we can suppose the Dodgers wouldn't run out their starters, one through four, in turn, during the postseason. Lackey would take probably one start in a seven-game series. But, then, what's the point of having Lackey for the postseason?

The Dodgers ownership struck boldly to acquire players on taking over in 2012, but the club president, Stan Kasten, said back then that the goal was to develop players. They've got a couple in their system now who project to become big producers for many years. Trading either of them, for virtually any price, would be foolish.

Pederson is a 22-year-old outfielder OPSing 1.035 in the Pacific Coast League, where the average hitter is 26.6 years old and OPSing .766. Seager is 20 years old and recently promoted to the Southern League, where he is playing shortstop every day. In eight games there, he is OPSing .745. The league's average hitter is 24.5 years old and OPSing .712. For most of the season, he played in the California League, OPSing 1.044. The average hitter in that league is 22.8 years old and OPSing .767.

It's remarkable that anyone would advocate trading either player for a pitcher who would be marginally valuable, if that, for the Dodgers in the postseason.

The Dodgers already have an excellent chance to win this year. The goal for this organization is to win every year. They should keep the prospects. It sounds like they will.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Dodgers no better than a year ago ... is that good enough?

The Dodgers are a star in the Major League universe again, and it is good to have them back. But they began spring training last week no better than they were when they left the field after last year's National League Championship Series, which makes one question if they can take the next step in 2014.

The Dodgers are back a little earlier than most teams because they will begin the season on March 22 in Australia (Public domain image).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers have begun training camp with pitchers and catchers, which seem to be among the least of their worries. Not to be a killjoy, considering that the Dodgers again are the No. 1 team in town with the demise of the Lakers, but some skepticism is in order.

We don't normally like skepticism in spring training. Spring is the time of new awakening in a young man's heart, and all that. But the Dodgers have been on such a honeymoon since reaching the National League Championship Series (NLCS) that no one seems to notice that they have improved not one bit during the winter, nor is there sufficient accounting for that freakish 42-8 run the Dodgers needed to rescue their 2013 season.

The Dodgers earned everything they got, and they probably have another 92 wins or more in them for 2014. The National League West doesn't include another club that is absolutely ready to pounce. The Dodgers will be favored to win their division, and they should be.

But if the 2013 Dodgers weren't a World Series team, then the 2014 Dodgers probably aren't one, either. There's an idea going around that the Dodgers somehow were noble over-achievers, taking on the St. Louis Cardinals without Matt Kemp or most of Andre Ethier and Hanley Ramirez before losing the NLCS in six games. There is some merit to it, and there also isn't. After all, the Cardinals didn't have one of their main producers, Allen Craig, and the former ace Chris Carpenter missed the whole year before retiring.

Obviously, though, the strengths of this Dodgers team are compelling. Signing ace left-hander Clayton Kershaw to a seven-year extension for $215 million is a franchise move. Behind him in the rotation, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu are as good as it gets for No. 2 and No. 3 starting pitchers.

And the Dodgers bullpen could be top-notch from top to bottom. Kenley Jansen is back to close after 28 saves, a 1.88 ERA and a 0.861 WHIP in 75 appearances. Brian Wilson, the former San Francisco Giants closer, figures to be the eighth-inning man. Behind them, we find right-handers Chris Perez and Brandon League, both experienced as big league closers. The two top lefties, J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez, both are good.

Offensively, the roster includes Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp, who all have produced MVP-type seasons. In the outfield, along with Kemp, we find Ethier, Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig. All four of the outfielders, except for Puig, have produced in winning amounts over multiple Major League seasons, and Puig might be the monstrous talent of them all.

The catcher, A.J. Ellis, is a popular anti-star on this team. If he doesn't keep every pitch in the dirt from getting away, he and the pitching staff are splendid at cutting down the opponent's running game, offing 44 percent of attempting base stealers (28 of 63) against a league average of 28 percent.

Lots to like. There also is quite a bit about which to be wary. The main questions about the Dodgers concern health, aging and defense.

On the health front, we begin with Kemp, who had a period in his life -- roughly 2011 and the first month of 2012 – when he was the best baseball player in the world. As spring training begins in 2014, Kemp is fighting against a career threatening injury to the talus bone in his left ankle. He can't run yet.

Kemp played in only 73 games last season, a few less than Ramirez, who appeared in 86 games. Ramirez produced like no one else in 2013, a 190 OPS-plus. When he played. His durability in 2014 cannot be assumed.

Injury concerns also are at work in the starting rotation, with Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley both entering spring training as walking wounded. Those are two pretty good names to have at No. 4 and 5 in the starting rotation. Right now, though, those names can't go there. We are more likely to see the names of lefty Paul Maholm, who is a pretty good recent signing, and right-hander Dan Haren, who is as likely as not to spend the season at the chiropractor’s office. Along with Haren's troublesome back, there is some concern about Maholm's left elbow, which caused him to miss time last September. And if neither of them has it, we're back to Stephen Fife and Matt Magill.

Behind the plate, Ellis is entering his age 33 season, that magic moment when all but the very greatest players begin to decline sharply. Ellis already declined from a 118 OPS-plus in 2012 to 93 in 2013, and squatting behind the plate all day isn't conducive to freshness. Behind Ellis is Tim Federowicz, and we shouldn't be too surprised if he is catching the majority of games by September.

Defensively, who knows what to expect from incoming second baseman Alex Guerrero, the former shortstop for the Cuban national team? The transition to second base is hardly a no-brainer, especially when it comes to dealing with that back side runner on the double-play ball to the shortstop. And if he fights the transition, the Dodgers don't have Mark Ellis around anymore to clean it up. He signed with the Cardinals, who brought him in as a fallback position in case Kolten Wong isn't really ready.

The Dodgers also should be concerned about balls hit to the left side of the field, and with lefties Kershaw, Ryu and Maholm in the rotation, those will not be infrequent. Ramirez is minus-3.5 WAR defensively in his career at shortstop. In left field, Crawford lacks range and throwing arm, and teams that don't run on him are missing opportunities for extra bases. Juan Uribe at third base often enough fails the eye test at third base, even though his metrics there are pretty good.

Uribe is something of a metaphor for the Dodgers overall. Maybe synecdoche – a part that is representative of the whole – is more like it. Dodgers fans spent three years complaining about the three-year deal for $21 million to which the club signed Uribe back when they couldn't afford anyone better. But when he crushed that bunny pitch from Atlanta Braves reliever David Carpenter to win the National League Division Series last year, Uribe became a hero to millions. With that, the Dodgers signed Uribe for another two years at $15 million. But Uribe is entering his age 34 season, he contributed little except outs in 2011 and 2012, and he now is a candidate for decline.

The Dodgers aren't exactly candidates for decline. They can expect an exciting regular season during which they will win a lot more than they lose, and it is a major upset and disappointment if they don't return to the playoffs.

But when they get there, are they any better? Will Uribe be able to deliver that towering hit? Will there be enough towering hits across the club to push the Dodgers into the World Series? Because that's what it's really about at this point. It's World Series or bust. And as spring training begins, it's not obvious that the Dodgers have added the pieces to get them there, because they haven't really added anything.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Dodgers won't fret over losing out on Tanaka

Japanese star right-hander Masahiro Tanaka signed Wednesday with the New York Yankees, meaning the Dodgers didn't get a player they wanted. Turns out, perhaps, that the Dodgers didn't want him very badly. Certainly not as badly as the Yankees.

Masahiro Tanaka pitching for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Japanese Pacific League (Neier/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

So, the Dodgers missed out on signing Japanese right-hander Hisanori Tanaka, and the rush is on to make this development into a larger story.

Over at the Los Angeles Times, their fine veteran baseball reporter Steve Dilbeck characterized the Dodgers' whiff on Tanaka as "(t)he first hint of coming financial limitations. Ownership warned this day was coming, and here it is, feeling slightly early upon arrival."

An SB Nation blogger, Grant Brisbee, puzzled over the "meaning" of the Dodgers missing on Tanaka and didn't seem very convinced by his own conclusions. 

The list could go on, but you get it. The very idea that the Guggenheim Dodgers couldn't procure just whoever they wanted seems almost to imply a contradiction. It seems an analytic truth that if the Dodgers want a player, he's theirs. And if they didn't get him, it must mean that something important has changed.

But nothing has changed at all. The Tanaka signing says nothing about the Dodgers, except that they have a little sense. The Yankees are paying $22 million per year, money approaching the Clayton Kershaw/Justin Verlander level, to a fellow who has never tossed a pitch in the Major Leagues. Add in the $20 million posting fee, and the Yankees are spending $25 million per year for this pitcher.

The Dodgers had just finished a seven-year, $215 million extension with Kershaw, a durable Cy Young pitcher who isn't yet 26. Is Tanaka worth three-quarters of that at 24 after a 24-0 performance last year in the Japanese Pacific League?

Absolutely not. It's safe to say that $25 million per year for a pitcher who hasn't tossed a pitch in the Major Leagues is unprecedented. It's barely precedented among pitchers who have succeeded in the Major Leagues. It's about what the Dodgers will pay Zack Greinke for the next five seasons, $25 million in some years and $26 million in others. When you spend $25 million per year on Hisanori Tanaka, you're saying he's as valuable as Zack Greinke. The Dodgers weren't about to say that, nor should they.

No one is arguing here that Tanaka can't or won't be a big winner in the Major Leagues. And it's not like the Yankees will go broke for spending $175 million to negotiate with him and sign a contract. In its twisted way, the signing even makes sense. For the Yankees. 

That's because the Yankees live in a different environment than other Major League teams. For all their free-agent signings this year, which included Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran, they didn't have reliable starting pitchers beyond C.C. Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda. The Yankees were a third-place team last year. And being bad in New York is bad, but, as everyone knows, being irrelevant is worse.

So, the Yankees made a bid to be relevant, to capture the back page and, it is hoped, to considerably improve their pitching rotation. 

The Dodgers don't have those needs. They won the National League West last season and advanced to the National League Championship Series. When it ended, they were portrayed not as under-achievers, but as gritty fighters against injuries to Hanley Ramirez, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. They've got an outstanding front three in their pitching rotation and, with or without Tanaka, they are the hands-down favorite to win the NL West again in 2014.

Why, then, spend $25 million per year for a pitcher who hasn't begun to demonstrate that he's worth it? The Dodgers don't have an answer to that question, and neither do we. But the Yankees do. 

In fact, Yankees officials mentioned through several outlets that they have scouted Tanaka for years, having a considerable presence in Japan, and they are confident that he will translate. Meanwhile, by the testimony of MLB.com reporter Ken Gurnick, the Dodgers don't have the same confidence that Tanaka will translate to the American game.

The Dodgers now turn to other names on the free-agent market, and the most popular name is Bronson Arroyo, late of the Cincinnati Reds. Arroyo is a No. 3 starter in a good rotation. With the Dodgers, who have a much better rotation than that, he's a No. 4.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Dodgers dolt up NLCS opener, lose in 13 innings

It seemed as though the entire Dodgers organization had a collective synaptic misfiring Friday, when they set their roster for the National League Championship Series quite questionably, then performed questionably in Game 1. It still took the St. Louis Cardinals 13 innings to beat them, 3-2.

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Carlos Beltran drove in all three of his team's runs and cut down a scoring chance for the Dodgers Friday night (djprybyl/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers were so air-headed Friday that they just about had to lose their National League Championship Series opener to the St. Louis Cardinals, and they did.

The in-game decisions by players and manager alike are sure to be turned over endlessly if the series ends with the Dodgers losing. Upper management didn't cover itself with glory before the game, either. The Dodgers now are down, 1-0, with Game 2 coming up at 1 p.m. PST Saturday in St. Louis.

First, the game. The Dodgers lost, 3-2, in 13 innings. The end came after Dodgers reliever Chris Withrow gave up a single to Daniel Descalso and a walk to Matt Carpenter with one out in the 13th. The Dodgers manager, Don Mattingly, had no choice but to call his closer, Kenley Jansen, with Carlos Beltran coming to the plate.

You hate to use your closer in a tie game on the road, which is why Jansen didn't start the inning. But Withrow couldn't keep the bases clean, so the tying run moved into scoring position and, at that point, the situation is desperate. Jansen is his best guy in the bullpen, and Mattingly's best chance to keep the run from scoring.

Jansen threw strike one, then three straight fastballs too low, running the count to 3-1. At that point, Beltran had a free swing. Jansen threw the next fastball away and about knee high, Beltran took his rip and bolted it into right field to drive in Descalso. Game over.

But the Dodgers lost this game in so many other ways. Players didn't come through enough to get the job done earlier. Dodgers hitters were one-for-10 with runners in scoring position. They didn't knock out Cardinals starter Joe Kelly when they had several chances early.

The keynote was set in the first inning, when the Dodgers put runners at second and third with one out. Adrian Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig struck out to end the inning. The Dodgers scored twice against Kelly in the third, but it amounted to minimal damage. Bases loaded, one out, Puig grounded to the pitcher, who threw home for a force out. Next, Juan Uribe singled through the middle to drive in two runners and move Puig to second base. Andre Ethier then flew out to center field, ending the inning.

The Cardinals came right back in their half of the third after their first two batters, David Freese and Pete Kozma struck out. Kelly somehow singled to left, then Dodgers starter Zack Greinke walked Carpenter. The next man up, Beltran, hit a drive to the center field wall. Ethier, rusty from not playing for a while in the outfield, came close to catching it at the wall, but missed. Two runs scored, tying the game, 2-2.

The game stayed that way until the 13th inning. Though the 10th inning, the Dodgers sent up only two more batters than the minimum. They could get nothing started. Seeing precious few scoring opportunities, Mattingly sent in Dee Gordon to punch run for Gonzalez after a leadoff walk in the eighth. Very interesting decision.

Why would you make it? Because you're not getting people on base, and you have a couple hitters coming up -- Puig and Juan Uribe -- who can give you a jolt. In fact, Uribe has four RBI in the last two games. A double by one of these players drives in a run if Gordon is running, and not if Gonzalez is running.

Why would you not make it? Because you don't want to take Gonzalez and his bat out of the lineup in a game that could be going to extra innings. And because you're probably not trying to steal second base against Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who threw out 43 percent of attempting base stealers this year. It's a move that says you're trying to take the lead right now so you can close it out with Brian Wilson pitching the eighth and Jansen pitching the ninth.

Mattingly’s explanation was a little disturbing. By the accounts, it went like this: “If we don't use (Gordon) there and the next guy hits a ball in the gap and he doesn't score and we don't score there, we're going to say, 'Why didn't you use Dee?’”

Sounds too much like Mattingly is wary from constant second guessing, and he sought to guard himself from another second guess. The problem is that people watching the game questioned it as a first guess.

Anyway, it didn't work. Puig hit into a force and Uribe hit into an inning ending double play. It was the first of three double plays that would end Dodgers innings. Michael Young, who replaced Gonzalez, hit into both of the others.

Young once was an excellent batsman who tacked up 200 hits in multiple seasons because he hit the ball hard to right field. But he turns 37 next week and he no longer has the bat speed of a .315 hitter. He's more like .275 or .280, which is better than most, but the difference shows up against postseason quality.

Many commentators have complained that having Young bat behind Hanley Ramirez took the bat away from Ramirez, as the Cardinals intentionally walked Ramirez in the 10th and 12th innings with Young on-deck. It's much more sensible to suppose that if you're the Cardinals, you're not letting Ramirez beat you even if Gonzalez is up behind him. The real damage from missing Gonzalez lies in the fact that he's simply a better hitter than Young and, being left-handed, he might have forced some uncomfortable decisions on Cardinals manager Mike Matheny.

With one out in the tenth, Mark Ellis tripled for the Dodgers. One wished at that point for Gordon to be available. But he wasn't, and the Cardinals walked Ramirez so they could pitch to Young. On a 1-0 pitch, Young hit a lazy fly ball to medium right field, with Beltran coming in on the ball to catch it.

Beltran is well known for his arm and Molina is well known for his excellence at blocking the plate. Ellis is not well known for his speed. But Ellis tried to score on the fly ball, with predictable results. He was out by several feet. There was some question of whether Molina actually tagged Ellis, but even Ellis conceded that he was out. When there's a collision at home plate and the catcher hangs onto the ball, he will get that call every time.

Nothing went right for the Dodgers in this one. Their roster setting decisions before the game didn't go right, either. Facing a St. Louis team that batted .238 against left-handed pitching this season, the Dodgers decided to leave lefties Paco Rodriguez and Chris Capuano off the NLCS in favor of right-handers Edinson Volquez and Carlos Marmol.

Mattingly told reporters that management discussed that call for five hours. One has to wonder what goes down in a decision making process that last five hours and lands on removing two lefties from your staff when you're playing a team that doesn't hit them.

But that's how the day went for the Dodgers. Not a very promising start to the NLCS.

Dodgers have right matchups to beat St. Louis in NLCS

With all the metrics going around baseball these days, the simplest might still be the most predictive. And when we look at the simple numbers pertaining to right-handers against left-handers, it becomes very hard to believe the St. Louis Cardinals can last against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.

The St. Louis Cardinals bagged two of their three wins against the Dodgers this year because Pete Kozma (above) hit two doubles against Clayton Kershaw. What are the chances of that happening again? (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers will begin their National League Championship Series (NLCS) this evening against the St. Louis Cardinals in St. Louis, seeking their first trip to the World Series since 1988, when they posted an unlikely victory against the heavily favored Oakland Athletics.

The predictions are running about even. Outwardly, at least, it does shape up as an even series between two divisional championships.

However, a couple aspects of this matchup indicate that the Dodgers enter with compelling advantages. Simply, the Dodgers match up very well with the Cardinals. Although the Dodgers won the season series only 4-3, a couple of those Cardinals wins turned on occurrences that one would not expect to come up with any regularity.

We're picking the Dodgers, not because they are local, but because they are left-handed. The Dodgers match up so well with the Cardinals that we wouldn't be one bit surprised if they wrap it up in fewer than seven games. Maybe five or six, which also would stand the Dodgers well entering the World Series.

We have mentioned several times here that the Dodgers are vulnerable to left-handed pitching, and when their National League Division Series (NLDS) with the Atlanta Braves was tied, 1-1, we went so far as to say that the Braves lost the series before it started because they shorted themselves on left-handed pitching.

But do you know who really can't hit left-handed pitching? The Cardinals. They are absolutely the worst team in the National League at hitting left-handed pitching. And the Dodgers will throw them at least two left-handers in the first four games, and four, maybe even five, if it goes seven. That depends on how the Dodgers approach Game 4, for which they have not announced a starting pitcher.

We already know the Dodgers will send lefties Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-jin Ryu to the mound in Games 2 and 3. If they're feeling adventurous, they might want to try lefty Chris Capuano in Game 4. Generally, you'd rather throw power pitching at the Cardinals -- generally, you'd rather throw power pitching at everybody every day -- but it will depend on how the series progresses. If the Dodgers hold a 2-1 or 3-0 lead going to Game 4, Capuano is a good call. If Capuano can maintain an effective sinker-changeup game, he can lock them up (compare this and this with this).

On the flip side, knowing the Dodgers at the top of their game can only be slowed down by a good left-handed starting pitcher, the Cardinals don't have any. They only threw 21 starts by left-handed pitchers all year, and none of their left-handers figure in their rotation for the NLCS.

This is Christmas for the Dodgers. As we've noted before, showing a lefty to the Dodgers turns leadoff hitter Carl Crawford into nothing. Against lefties this year, Crawford batted .206 with a .551 OPS. Notice, Crawford wasn't nothing against the right-handed Braves. He hit three homers.

Left-handers turn Andre Ethier into almost nothing -- .221 batting average and .613 OPS. Juan Uribe (.308 on-base percentage against lefties) and A.J. Ellis (.200 batting average against lefties) are just a tiny bit of something against lefties. Uribe will run into a left-handed slant now and then (six homers) and Ellis can tap them for walks (17 walks, .330 on-base percentage). Nick Punto bats .309 against lefties, but it's such a flaccid .309 that his on-base (.362) actually is higher than his slugging (.361).

In short, the Dodgers have virtually no chance of scoring against lefties until the order turns to Yasiel Puig and Hanley Ramirez.

The Dodgers will have to worry about none of this for the first five or six innings of any game, unless, of course, they beat up the Cardinals right-handed starters well enough to send them showering.

When we look this Dodgers order up and down, well, look at these OPS readings against right-handers: Ramirez (1.001), Puig (.897), Ethier (.854), Adrian Gonzalez (.829), Crawford (.796), Uribe (.765). Let's even throw in Game 1 starting pitcher Zach Greinke -- .715.

Nobody questions that the Cardinals have real talent among their right-handed starting pitchers. But this is the NLCS. We're not playing against the Chicago Cubs anymore. Weaknesses are exposed here. The lack of left-handed starting pitchers already has been exposed on the Braves, and it's waiting to be exposed on the Cardinals. Getting through this Dodgers lineup with right-handed starters every day is a task perhaps too large.

On the other side, the Cardinals batted .238 with a .672 OPS this year against lefties. Both ranked 13th in the 15-team National League. Their on-base percentage was .301. Only the Cubs (.298) were worse. Their slugging was .371, which ranked 12th.

Bear in mind, this Cardinals team is a slugging bunch. Overall this year, they ranked first in runs (783) and on-base percentage (.342), second in OPS (.733) and third in slugging (.401). But they did all of that -- and much more, really -- against right-handed pitching.

Moral of the story: Don't throw right-handers at the Cardinals. The Dodgers shall take heed, because that's how they are built. They can -- and will -- make the Cardinals deal with left-handed pitching.

Take a look at the Cardinals and their OPS readings against lefties and righties, showing lefties first and righties second: Matt Adams (.654 and .876), Carlos Beltran (.729 and .871), Matt Carpenter (.820 and .897), Daniel Delasco (.529 and .684), David Freese (.811 and .629), Matt Holliday (.799 and .903), Jon Jay (.620 and .749), Pete Kozma (.536 and .554) and Yadier Molina (.883 and .823).  

Of all these hitters, only Molina and Freese are better against left-handers. Holliday, Beltran, Adams, Jay and Delasco all are more than 100 points worse against left-handers, while Carpenter is 77 points worse and Kozma is so small either way that it doesn't matter.

That said, baseball is a funny game. It has often been noted that Kershaw lost twice to the Cardinals this year. But look at how it happened.

The first time was a 5-3 St. Louis win at Dodger Stadium on May 26. The Cardinals scored three times in the second inning when Kershaw walked two hitters and Kozma hit a three-run double to left. Kershaw left the game after allowing four runs in seven innings.

The second time was a 5-1 St. Louis win at Busch Stadium on Aug. 6. With one out in the fifth inning of a scoreless tie, Jay doubled against Kershaw, then Tony Cruz singled him in, Kozma doubled Cruz to third and Joe Kelly grounded out to drive in Cruz. The next hitter, Carpenter, grounded out to end the inning. Kershaw's line at the end showed six innings and two runs.

In essence here, Pete Kozma beat Clayton Kershaw twice. What are the chances of that lightning striking for a third time? If Kozma even puts a bat on the ball against Kershaw in this series, it might qualify as a major upset.

One more factor for the Dodgers, and this, again, pertains to Kershaw, who pitched six innings without giving up an earned run in the Dodgers' Game 4 win against the Braves to finish the NLDS. If the Dodgers hadn't won that game -- and they won it largely because Kershaw pitched so well -- then the NLDS would have moved to Atlanta with Greinke pitching Game 5. As it happens, Greinke instead is pitching Game 1 of the NLCS in St. Louis.

As it happens, Greinke has taken four starts at Busch Stadium in his career, and all of them have been quality. In none of them did he last fewer than six innings, and in none of them did he allow more than two runs. Greinke took one start this year in St. Louis, a 3-2 win on Aug. 5 during which he allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings.

It also happens that Greinke took no starts this season in Atlanta. However, he has taken two starts during his career in Atlanta, and neither were quality, totaling 11 innings and seven earned runs for a 5.73 ERA. As it turned out, then, Kershaw's Game 4 outing set up Greinke for his favorable scenario and rescued him from his unfavorable scenario.

It's just breaking right for the Dodgers here. The Cardinals are an excellent team and they've got a postseason history that says they overcome the odds. But it always comes down to matchups, and the matchups clearly favor the Dodgers. For the Cardinals to prevail in this series, they will have to beat the odds once again.

Inside the numbers of the Dodgers' 40-8 surge

Breaking down the Dodgers' last 48 games, of which they have won 40, it seems as if there is no kind of a game or circumstance in which the Dodgers are likely to lose. The Dodgers are defying every tried and true indicator out there. No matter who scores first, the Dodgers are likely to win. No matter who hits the most, the Dodgers are likely to win. No matter how little the Dodgers score, they're likely to win.

These days, the Dodgers are winning games that teams just don't win (public domain image).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Let's just say something unpleasant right off the top: The Dodgers aren't really this good. No team is really this good.

The Dodgers have won 40 of their last 48 games, the first time any team has done that at any point in any season in 71 years. This is historic stuff we're seeing out there, night after night. With wins in their next two games -- and their scheduled pitchers are Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw -- the Dodgers would become only the fifth team ever to win 42 of 50 games. During this run, the Dodgers are 12-2 against clubs that are positioned, right now, to be in the playoffs.

Much virtual ink has been spilled on explanations for how this team has become so formidable so quickly. Remember, if you will, that the Dodgers were 73-89 in their last year's worth of games when they started play on June 22, the day they began this historic surge. The team included most of these same players for most of that time. They gave no indication of being able to win. There were injuries, of course, but there also have been injuries since. They've done almost all of this without Matt Kemp, after all.

Anyway, the ink that has been spilled, virtual and otherwise, is for naught, because the explanation for what has changed with the Dodgers is simple.

Everything. There’s simply no point in trying to isolate causes or reasons, because everything is going absolutely right for the Dodgers like we’ve never seen it go right for anybody.

There is no aspect of the game at which the Dodgers aren't dramatically improved and playing very well. And they're lucky. Just say it. The Dodgers are lucky. Carlos Marmol pitched two shutout innings for them in their 5-4, 12-inning win against the New York Mets Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium. The Chicago Cubs couldn't wait to get rid of Marmol, and now he's notching big outs for the hottest team in the game.

Attempting to quantify this remarkable run by the Dodgers, we shall extrapolate from a section of records commonly found in the game notes provided to the media by each team before every game. This stuff is wild.

For example, before June 22, the Dodgers were 21-17 in games during which they scored first. Not very good. Year by year, the team that scores first wins about 65 percent of the time. From June 22, though, the Dodgers are 28-0 when they score first. That's an awful lot better than 65 percent. When the opponent scores first, the Dodgers were 9-25 through June 21. Since then, they are 12-8, which is just a couple ticks worse than teams have generally done through the years when they score first.

Through June 21, the Dodgers were 23-7 when they led after six innings. Since then, they are 28-0. Through June 21, the Dodgers were 25-4 when they led after seven innings. Since then, they are 28-0. Through June 21, the Dodgers were 28-2 when they led after eight innings. Since then, they are 30-0. When the opponent led through six, the Dodgers were 0-26 through June 21. Since then, they are 5-8. When the Dodgers trailed through seven, the Dodgers were 0-29 before the surge and they're 4-8 since. When the Dodgers trailed through eight, they were 0-33 and they're 4-8 since. Notice that those eight losses in each case are the only eight losses, so no one has come back on them.

When games were tied after seven, the Dodgers were 5-8 through June 21, and they were 2-6 when they were tied after eight. Since then, the Dodgers are 8-1 and 6-1 under those circumstances. Before June 22, they were 3-4 in extra innings. Since, they are 4-0. The Dodgers had 11 comeback wins through June 21, and they have 15 since. In games decided in the final at-bat, the Dodgers were 1-5. Since June 21, they are 4-0. In one-run games, the Dodgers were 7-12 through June 21. Since then, they are 12-0.

Winning every time they score first, winning 60 percent of the time when the other team scores first, winning one-third of the time when they trail after seven innings, the Dodgers are winning games that teams just don't win. And there are many more such examples.

Presumably, the team with the most hits will win most of the time. That certainly was true in Dodgers games before June 22. The Dodgers were 22-10 when they had more hits than the opponent and 6-25 when they had fewer hits. From that point though, it doesn't matter who gets the most hits, because the Dodgers are likely to win. Starting with June 22, the Dodgers are 29-2 when they have the most hits, and a pretty snappy 10-5 when the other team has more hits. Somehow, the Dodgers were only 16-15 when they had 10 or more hits through June 21. Since then, they are 25-1 when they collect at least 10 hits.

Other measures give us an even sharper sense of how much better the Dodgers are playing. For example, through June 21, they were 17-18 when they didn't make an error. So, not only did they tend to squander errorless fielding, but they were errorless in fewer than half of their games. Since June 21, they are 24-4 when they make no errors, so they are errorless 58.33 percent of the time and they win almost all of them.

Through June 21, the Dodgers were 22-20 when they homered and 7-4 when they homered twice or more. Since then, the Dodgers are 24-2 when they homer and 11-1 when they homer more than once. Through June 21, by the way, the Dodgers batted around twice all year. Since then, they have batted around five times.

Remember how the Dodgers used to squander quality starts? Through June 21, the Dodgers were 21-16 when their guy went six or more innings and allowed three or fewer runs. Thus, only 29.2 percent of their games were quality start victories. Since then, the Dodgers are 26-3 when they get a quality start, so in 54.2 percent of their games the Dodgers received a quality start and won.

Decades of reading media game notes have made one truism clear, especially in the National League. The tipping point between winning and losing is scoring four runs as opposed to scoring three. Just as surely as the sun rises every day, team after team after team will have a winning record when it scores four or more, and a losing record when it scores three or less. Even an excellent team is in a jittery position when it scores three runs. Consider the Atlanta Braves, who have the National League's best record at 74-47. The Braves are second in league ERA at 3.20 and second in league scoring at 4.50 runs per game. But when the Braves score three runs or fewer, they are 15-38, and when they score exactly three, they're 8-10. When they score four or more, they're 58-9.

It would be helpful to see some good numbers on the matter, but when the league ERA is around 4.00, it would seem that four runs is where most games will tip. Consider the Houston Astros, who are 39-81. They can't even win one-third of their games. But when the Astros score four or more, they're 28-28. When they score three or fewer, they're 11-53.

You get the idea. The team that scores four or more has an excellent chance of winning. Even the Astros break even when they score four or more. And the team that scores three or fewer probably will lose. Even the Braves lose when they score three or fewer.

Now dig. Through June 21, the Dodgers were 11-33 when they scored three or fewer. And they were 19-9 when the scored four or more. They also were 24-9 when they allowed three or fewer and 6-33 when they allowed four or more. Since June 21, not surprisingly (and not even remarkably, considering some of the other numbers we've seen), the Dodgers are 29-1 when they score four or more and 29-3 when they allow three or fewer. But they're also 16-7 when they score three or fewer 10-5 when they allow four or more.

Those last two numbers are the most stunning of all. You just don't see teams win, let alone win two-thirds of the time, when they score three runs or fewer, or when they allow four runs or more. Call it magic, call it history, call it luck, call it damned good baseball, call it anything. But know this. It won't last. It's can't. That's nothing against the Dodgers. No team is this good.

Right remark made the wrong way

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said last week that the club wouldn't suffer for his one-game suspension because it is on "autopilot." Mattingly didn't mean it as a knock against himself, but it described the club he is managing all too well.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said last week that his club is on "autopilot." He needs to fix that (Cbl62/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Unported 3.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly made an unfortunate remark Friday, before his club began a three-game series in Pittsburgh. Mattingly, who was just about to serve a one-game suspension, sensibly told reporters that the manager's absence for one game isn't such a disaster.

But there was a "because" to it. The because was that the team "is on autopilot, anyway."

The Dodgers were ten games below .500 when Mattingly made that remark. They had lost four of their last five games, and they were about to lose another one that night. The Dodgers were "on autopilot," said the manager.

Leaving aside whatever disagreements one may have with Mattingly's field management, his "autopilot" remark struck a nerve. Two nerves.

The first nerve is the one that twinges about Mattingly's value to the Dodgers as their manager. When the manager says his team is on autopilot, he's saying he doesn't make a difference. He's saying it doesn't really matter who is managing or what he does. It could be anyone. For a manager whose job security is a running topic, that's a damning remark.

Mattingly's job performance has never been an issue until recently. Everyone, especially Joe Torre, knew the Dodgers were compromised in player acquisition under Frank McCourt. That's why Torre left the job and it came open for Mattingly, his protégé, before the 2011 season. Mattingly got an under-manned team to play for him and came in with a winning record. In 2012, still under-manned, the Dodgers started strong and ended with another winning season.

Of course, the new Guggenheim ownership with its bags of money arrived about one year ago, and we saw changes. The Dodgers began acquiring players. Coming into 2013 with a $217 million payroll and a manager who had gotten more out of less, the Dodgers were supposed to improve. They haven't. With the notable exceptions of Yasiel Puig and a couple of brawls involving Zack Greinke, the Dodgers have seldom been crisp or fiery.

And that brings us to the second nerve, which concerns the way the Dodgers are playing. They are playing as if they were on autopilot. By saying that the Dodgers are "on autopilot," Mattingly has offered an apt description of the team he is managing. It is not a flattering description.

We understand that Mattingly would not have meant for it to come out that way. We understand that Mattingly meant the groundwork has been laid, the plans have been set, the roles are established, and one night with a fill-in manager isn't going to make a big difference. All of that is true.

But it is too true. The Dodgers are on autopilot. They went on to lose two of three in Pittsburgh. They are at the bottom of the National League West, 7 1/2 games out of first place. They can thank the San Diego Padres for that. The Padres, who have won six straight, swept three from the first-place Arizona Diamondbacks. The Padres, the next team up from the Dodgers, now are 35-34, two games behind Arizona. Every team in the division is participating in this race, except for the Dodgers.

As noted, there are a few signs that this ball club has a pulse. Mattingly served his one-game suspension for his role in the June 11 fight at Dodger Stadium, where the Dodgers and Diamondbacks threw pitches at each other until they decided to make their confrontation more direct. One of the marks against Mattingly was that players from the Dodgers disabled list jumped into the fray, which is a rules violation.

Just as the rule is, the fact that players on the DL stuck up for their guys is an indication that this club has some passion. If only the same passion were more often exhibited in more routine acts of baseball.

We always wish Mattingly the best. He is a very nice man with deep knowledge of the game. It's always a little sad to think of him as the one New York Yankees great who never appeared in the World Series. One hopes his managing career will be more successful, from that standpoint.

As it happens, the Dodgers are going to Yankee Stadium for a three-game series starting Tuesday night. Mattingly is so well regarded in New York that even the late George Steinbrenner knew better than to mess with him. A poor showing by his team in the Bronx would be unfortunate.

He needs to get his team off of autopilot.

Angels going great, but others are just as good

Since falling to 62-60 on Aug. 19 and all but eliminating themselves from the playoff race, the Angels are 18-7. And it has been barely enough to keep them alive, because Oakland and Baltimore have been as good or better. Now, the Angels are righted with about two weeks left, but Baltimore has a clear schedule advantage for the second wild card.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

When last we left the Angels four weeks ago, they had suffered three weeks of unfathomably poor pitching, lost 13 of 18 and fell from wild card leader only two games down in the AL West to 62-60 and 4 1/2 games short of any playoff spot.

With 12 of their next 15 coming on the road, including a series each at playoff contenders Detroit and Oakland, the obituaries were being written for the Angels when they began that run on Aug. 21.

Since then, the Angels are playing about as well as anyone in the game, 18-7, including 11-4 on the road. And they've needed every bit of it. If the Angels were 15-10, we would be saying it's too little too late. The Angels would be about six games down for the second wild card with three teams to jump. As it is, they are 2 1/2 behind Baltimore for the second wild card, and no one stands between them.

One has to love how the Angels are playing while also lamenting that it hasn't helped very much. Often enough, a club goes on a hot streak and some feeble nemesis helps out by going on a cold streak. But it doesn't go like that for the Angels.

All the clubs the Angels are or would be trying to catch are as hot as they are, including AL West leader Texas (17-9), first wild card leader Oakland (19-7) and second wild card leader Baltimore (16-9). Thus, for going 18-7, the Angels have only gained 1 1/2 games in the AL West (they are down 7 1/2 games now), they have gained only one game on the first wild card (they are down 4 1/2 games) and they have gained two games on the second wild card (they are down 2 1/2 games).

But the good news runs deeper for the Angels, because they now have their starting rotation back in order, making those wins possible. Since Aug. 19, Zack Greinke has a 1.70 ERA, eating 37 innings with his five starts. Since then, Dan Haren has a 2.35 ERA in five starts covering 30 2/3 innings. Jered Weaver has a 2.73 ERA in four starts. Ervin Santana has a 3.00 ERA in five starts. The worst of the lot is C.J. Wilson, who has a 4.40 ERA in his last five starts, but the Angels have won all five of those starts.

And, again, the Angels will need all of it to stay in the race to the end, because outside factors are not in their favor. It seems they never are this year.

The Angels play three at home this week against the Texas Rangers, then three at home against the Chicago White Sox. That’s two division leaders. Baltimore, the team the Angels are trying to catch, stays on the road this week for three at Seattle and three at Boston. That’s two teams that are playing out the string. Next week, the Orioles go home for four against Toronto and three against Boston. The Angels start next week at home against Seattle, then they go to Texas for three.

Remember, the Angels need to gain 2 ½ games on the Orioles, basically in the next two weeks. Those schedules are not promising. The Orioles will close out their season with three at Tampa Bay, while the Angels will close with three at Seattle. But it’s hard to believe the Angels will be in striking distance as the last series begins.

The playoff race is shaping up as something of a hard luck story for the Angels. The moment they went to the trouble to trade for Greinke, the pitching rotation tanked. Then, the Angels righted themselves and went on a roll, but everyone they needed to catch matched them practically win for win since Aug. 20. So, now the Angels have crawled into view of the playoffs, but that view is obstructed by Baltimore’s very easy schedule.

Wait ‘til next year for the Angels? Probably, but with all the talent they’ve put together, we’ve still got two interesting weeks of this year. This club still has a chance. It just isn’t a very good one, unless Baltimore unaccountably collapses.