Center League: Royals, Cardinals fight for lead

The St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals are meeting this weekend in Kansas City for the Center League lead. The Royals won the opener Friday night, 5-0, behind two homers by designated hitter Kendrys Morales.

Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain enters Saturday's games with a 2.8 WAR, according to baseball-reference.com, second only to the Angels' Mike Trout among American League position players (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The key series of the weekend is in the Central League, where the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals are meeting for the lead.

It happens that the Royals have the best record in the American League (27-14) and the Cardinals have the best record in the National League (27-15), but it's the Cardinals and the Detroit Tigers with a half-game lead on the Royals in the Central League, even after the Royals carried a 5-0 win out of Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City Friday night.

The Royals have advanced from mere feel-good story to real going concern in a very short time. One can tell they are real because they can replace real talent and keep winning.

During the offseason, they lose their ace right-hander, James Shields, the player who, more than any other, lurched them towards credibility. Shields went to the San Diego Padres as a free agent. Instead, now, the Royals have Chris Young, who now has 69 career victories as he approaches his 35th birthday on May 25. Young threw six innings of goose eggs at the Cardinals Friday night, allowing six hits. He's 4-0 now with a 0.78 ERA.

During the offseason, the Royals lost their long-time designated hitter, Billy Butler, to free agency.  In his place, the Royals signed Kendrys Morales, who, being a switch-hitter with power, pretty obviously trumps Butler, who signed with the Oakland Athletics.  Morales accounted for all of Kansas City's scoring Friday with a three-run homer in the first inning and a two-run homer in the third.

The centerpiece for the Royals remains, of course, that core of young, veteran talent. It would be hard to pick just one, but, if you had to, it would probably be the center fielder, Lorenzo Cain. As of Saturday morning, Cain was second to Mike Trout of the Angels in WAR (2.7) among American Leaguers who aren't pitchers, according to baseball-reference.com. Friday night, Cain hit himself onto base twice so he could score on Morales homers.

As of Saturday morning in the Central League, the Cardinals are 20-11, the Tigers are 23-14 and the Royals are 18-10. Now, 30 years after the Royals and Cardinals met in the World Series, they are meeting on the weekend before Memorial Day. Perhaps they will meet again in October.

West League: Dodgers streak to seven straight

The Dodgers brought two northern opponents to Chavez Ravine last week and cruised to a 6-0 homestand, bringing their winning streak to seven. They have the early lead in the West League. But they travel this week to the haunts of the floundering San Francisco Giants.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is swinging as much bat as anyone in the game right now, leading his club to a streaking start in all competitions (TonyTheTiger/Creative Commons Share Alike-Attribution 4.0 International license).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

A look at the early West League standings reveals that the balance of power in the west is in the south, particularly Southern California.

The Dodgers (9-3) have won seven in a row after wolfing down two northern opponents, the Seattle Mariners and the Colorado Rockies, in a 6-0 home stand that ended Sunday. The only other club that's even two games above even in the West League, the San Diego Padres, recently enjoyed a good home stand against two northern division clubs, winning three of four against the San Francisco Giants and two of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Maybe some of this will shake back as the Dodgers and Padres hit the road. We could find out quickly.

The Dodgers are in San Francisco Tuesday through Thursday, and even though the Giants are a scuffling 4-10, well, you know the rest.

Right now, though, the Dodgers are riding high. No one in the game is on-basing (.527), slugging (.939), or, therefore, OPSing (1.467) better than Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and he has company in that lineup. Two other Dodgers are in the OPS Top 20 across the Major Leagues — second baseman Howie Kendrick (tenth, 1.105) and rookie center fielder Joc Pederson (20th, .990).

So, the Dodgers are doing fine offensively without Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon. They probably ought to be better defensively with those three replaced, respectively, by Pederson, Jimmy Rollins and Kendrick. Pederson has been terrific with the glove. Rollins, Kendrick and Gonzalez have been less so. But the Dodgers lead all of baseball with a team OPS of .885, which covers a lot of defensive problems.

Much was made during the winter about the Padres bring in a new outfield, and it's worked out well so far, with Kemp (162 OPS-plus), Wil Myers (114) and Justin Upton (191) all hitting. But they haven't outshined the Padres' new pitchers, which is why the Padres are fourth across baseball in staff ERA at 2.79. Give it to newcomers James Shields (2.84), Brandon Morrow (1.29) and Craig Kimbrel (1.42 with four saves).

Games of April 5

St. Louis 3, at Chicago (NL) 0.

Games of April 6

at Cincinnati 5, Pittsburgh 2.

at Detroit 4, Minnesota 0.

at Kansas City 10, Chicago (AL) 1.

Games of April 7

St. Louis at Chicago (NL), ppd.

Games of April 8

at Chicago (NL) 2, St. Louis 0.

at Detroit 11, Minnesota 0.

at Cincinnati 5, Pittsburgh 2 (11 innings).

at Kansas City 7, Chicago (AL) 5.

Games of April 9

at Cincinnati 3, Pittsburgh 2.

at Detroit 7, Minnesota 1.

at Kansas City 4, Chicago (AL) 1.

Games of April 10

Detroit 8, at Cleveland 4

Minnesota 6, at Chicago (AL) 0.

at Cincinnati 5, St. Louis 4.

Pittsburgh 6, at Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 11

St. Louis 4, at Cincinnati 1.

at Chicago (AL) 5, Minnesota 4.

Detroit 9, at Cleveland 6.

at Milwaukee 6, Pittsburgh 0.

Games of April 12

Detroit 8, at Cleveland 5.

St. Louis 7, at Cincinnati 5 (12 innings).

at Chicago (AL) 6, Minnesota 2.

Pittsburgh 10, at Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 13

at Chicago (NL) 7, Cincinnati 6.

at Pittsburgh 5, Detroit 4.

Milwaukee 5, at St. Louis 4.

Kansas City 12, at Minnesota 3.

Games of April 14

Detroit 2, at Pittsburgh 0.

Chicago (AL) 4, at Cleveland 1.

Cincinnati 3, at Chicago (NL) 2.

Games of April 15

at Cleveland 4, Chicago (AL) 2.

Detroit 1, at Pittsburgh 0.

at Chicago (NL) 5, Cincinnati 0.

at Minnesota 3, Kansas City 1.

at St. Louis 4, Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 16

at St. Louis 4, Milwaukee 0.

at Minnesota 8, Kansas City 5.

Games of April 17

at Detroit 2, Chicago (AL) 1.

at Pittsburgh 6, Milwaukee 3.

at Minnesota 3, Cleveland 2.

at St. Louis 6, Cincinnati 1.

Games of April 18

Chicago (AL) 12, at Detroit 3.

Cleveland 4, at Minnesota 2.

at St. Louis 5, Cincinnati 2.

at Pittsburgh 6, Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 19

at Detroit 9, Chicago (AL) 1.

at Pittsburgh 5, Milwaukee 2.

at Minnesota 7, Cleveland 2.

at St. Louis 2, Cincinnati 1.

Lester, trade loom large as A's straggle to playoffs

Tuesday's American League wildcard game is a beauty, with the Oakland Athletics sending Jon Lester against the Kansas City Royals and James Shields. Both arrived in controversial trades. The Shields deal already has worked out for the Royals, and Lester still has a chance to save his trade if he is the postseason pitcher that he always has been.

The Oakland Athletics acquired Jon Lester from the Boston Red Sox to get them through the postseason. Tuesday night in Kansas City, Lester has a chance to do it (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The backdrop couldn't be more different for the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals approaching their wildcard playoff game Tuesday night in Kansas City.

For the Royals, this playoff turn is their first in 30 years, since the real glory days, 1985 and its world championship. They are celebrating. The Royals have fought inch by inch to become a playoff team in the last couple of years, surviving to the last week last season and actually making a bid for the American League Central this year before settling in as the lead wildcard.

For the Athletics, an unimaginable nightmare continues. The Athletics lost 30 of their last 46 games, blowing a six-game lead in the AL West to the surging Angels, who won it going away. The Athletics, far from their days with the best record in the game, finished 10 games down to the Angels and fought to the final day to secure the final spot in the playoffs. So, the Athletics enter this game as a sinking ship. And their playoff history isn't glorious. The A's have been to the playoffs seven times in the 21st century, and won only one playoff series.

Many will tell you that the A's are where they are because of a certain trade they made on July 31. For the sake of Oakland general manager Billy Beane, we'll grant that saying so is a slight over-simplification, even though we never liked the trade for the Athletics. But it's not just a slight over-simplification. It's premature.

The Athletics are hanging this game on Jon Lester, who is in the cross hairs of a tortured narrative. Lester has done a fine job for the A's (2.35 ERA in 11 starts), and no one should blame him because the A's traded Yoenis Cespedes to get him in the deal that has taken a huge piece from the Athletics batting order. But it comes down to games like this for Lester, because games like this are why the A's got him. To some degree, Lester can ratify a very controversial trade for Billy Beane by coming through in this game.

And Lester is uniquely equipped to do it. He has pitched better against the Royals than against any other team in his career. The Royals are batting .196 with one homer against Lester in 353 plate appearances going back to 2006. Lester's record against the Royals is 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA in 13 starts (88 innings) with a WHIP of 1.068. The A's won only two of seven meetings with the Royals this year, and Lester pitched both of the wins, which went 8-3 and 11-3. They were the only games against the Royals in which the A's scored more than three runs. The Royals shut them out twice.

Lester has a 2.11 ERA in 11 starts and two relief appearances in the postseason. So, the A's have the right guy pitching in this game. One hopes. Because if Lester isn't the guy to pitch in this game, then this season will live in infamy for the Athletics. The Cespedes-for-Lester deal will go down as one of the biggest trading deadline blunders ever. Can the pitcher for whom Beane sacrificed so much offense do the job that he was brought in to do?

If Lester is the right guy, then he pitches the A's through Kansas City and then, all of a sudden, they're in a five-game series with the Angels, and you know the A's would relish that after how these last couple of months have gone. Lester can come back for Game 3 in that series, and there he would work in another critical moment. After what the Angels did to the A's last time they met, sweeping them four in Anaheim and blowing them right out of the division race ... these are games that the A's will want to play. And if the A's can get past the Angels, they will be lined up for two starts from Lester in the American League Championship Series.

The book is closed on Cespedes for this year. He has one more year on his contract with the Boston Red Sox, and he just drove in 100 runs for the first time. The Red Sox made out well, and they can take a crack at Lester on the free-agent market.

As far as the A's are concerned, the facts aren't all in. The trade certainly blew up on them down the back stretch as the A's continuously lost two out of every three games because they couldn't score. They're worse off for going in as a wildcard instead of the league's top seed. But all of that can be overcome with some pitching in the postseason. We still think the A's won't hit enough to go very far. But if Lester is everything that Beane traded for, then he will win some key games coming up and the A's could last for a while.

Some believe the Lester trade should somehow be compared with the deal that brought James Shields to the Royals, for whom he is the starting pitcher in this wildcard game. You can argue for their similarity, if you'd like, but the only similarity we see is that they are both trades. They are trades made by very different clubs for very different purposes.

Unlike the Athletics, who traded for Lester so they can make a big move in the playoffs, the Royals acquired Shields because they just needed someone to anchor their pitching rotation and help them contend for the playoffs. The Royals have never developed that guy and general manager Dayton Moore, entering the final year of his contract, paid big for Shields last spring.

Moore sent Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Patrick Leonard and Mike Montgomery to the Tampa Bay Rays in December 2012 and brought back Shields, Wade Davis and Elliot Johnson. The Royals were pretty roundly panned for the trade. With only one winning season since 1993 as they made the trade, the Royals were finally getting it right with player development. It didn't seem sensible for the Royals to deal away promising players when they still appeared a couple of years from contending. Dealing a big piece of long-term future for a short-term future that wasn't promising, the trade smacked of desperation for a general manager in the last year of his contract.

But when we look at the Royals now, we can see how the pieces fit. The Royals have plenty of players, many of them quite talented, who can run out to the outfield, first base or designated hitter. They can't get Alex Gordon, Jerrod Dyson, Lorenzo Cain, Nori Aoki, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler and Josh Willingham all into the same lineup. Two of those guys have to sit. We can't say the Royals are better off without Myers, who won the American League Rookie of the Year in 2013 with a 131 OPS-plus, but they aren't scrambling to fill his position, either.

The true gold in this trade is the pitcher Moore thought he was getting, because that's the pitcher who arrived. Shields has made that trade work for Moore by giving the Royals presence and credibility for their pitching staff. In two years with the Royals, Shields has taken 34 starts each time, throwing 228 2/3 and 227 innings for ERAs of 3.15 and 3.21.

If all the Royals got in the trade were Shields, it was worth making. The Royals could not have made this long climb to the playoffs without him. The club definitely improved around Shields, but if the Royals hadn't made that move for a No. 1 starter, they would be the Milwaukee Brewers, sitting at home.

Then the Royals made the trade even better for themselves by figuring out what to do with Davis. The Royals originally tried Davis as a starter, and it wasn't for him. The Rays had already reached that conclusion, which is why all 54 of his appearances for them in 2012 came from the bullpen, but the Royals had to see for themselves. They saw a guy who posted a 5.32 ERA and couldn't get past the third inning.

Now Davis is the eighth-inning hold guy, throwing an ERA of 1.00. With Kelvin Herrera throwing 100 miles per hour in the seventh, Davis tossing a 1.00 in the eighth and Greg Holland throwing 46 saves in the ninth, the Royals are well set on the days when Shields doesn't pitch eight or nine innings.

Whatever happens in the wildcard game, the Shields trade already is a success for the Royals. They finally made it to the postseason. For the A's, an old postseason hand who barely made it to the playoffs this time, their trade to bring in Lester hasn't been everything they would want. And it might not ever be. But it still can become good enough rather quickly.

Tigers in tangle for AL Central title

The Detroit Tigers are trying to win the American League Central division for the fourth straight time, and this one isn't as easy as some of the others. They still hit as well as just about anyone and they still catch it worse than anyone, but their trademark pitching is way down. Now, they're trying to hold off the Kansas City Royals in the last two weeks of the season.

Justin Verlander isn't a Cy Young Award contender this year, and the Detroit Tigers aren't a shoo-in to win the American League Central division (SD Dirk/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Nobody saw a championship race coming in the American League Central division, where the Detroit Tigers, going for their fourth straight title, held a seven-game lead on July 24. This division was on cruise control.

That was almost two months ago. Friday, the Tigers go to Kansas City fighting for their postseason lives. The Tigers hold a mere half-game lead over the Kansas City Royals as those clubs begin three games that might decide the division if the Tigers sweep, and, otherwise, won't. A week of games will follow the series, and any other outcome than a Tigers sweep would keep the margin between these clubs within three games. The way this season has gone, though, the Tigers wouldn't be comfortable even if they do sweep.

What happened? Tigers fans often can be found bemoaning that their favorites should have won five or six more games by now. Looking at the Tigers, it would appear they have done everything right, by the book, at least, entering this season.

They had their big arm, Justin Verlander, signed for the long term. They, apparently, improved themselves defensively by trading first baseman Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers for second baseman Ian Kinsler so they could move Miguel Cabrera to first base, where he figured to be less of a defensive liability. They had a rookie, Nick Castellanos, ready for third base. They had to figure that replacing departed free agent Jhonny Peralta at shortstop at least wouldn't hurt defensively. They brought in Rajai Davis to play left field. They signed a successful closer, Joe Nathan, to solve that problem they've long had with finishing out leads. Of course, they have Victor Martinez, who is close to being the best designated hitter in the American League.

Above all that, they "won" the Fielder-Kinsler trade, though in the most unfortunate possible way, due to Fielder's serious neck problems. And who could top that starting rotation? Even after trading Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals last winter, which wasn't one of their better ideas, they still had Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly. And they held a seven-game lead on July 24. Then, at the trading deadline, they nabbed the big prize on that market, bringing in left-hander David Price from the Tampa Bay Rays.

Know what else? They enter Friday's first game in Kansas City having defeated the Royals in 11 of their 16 meetings.

And, yet, the Tigers have been unable to shake the Royals. They have been unable to run out there for the last two months and win their solid four games per week that would enable them to maintain the comfortable lead. On July 24, the Tigers were 57-42. Since then, they are 27-26.

For all that the Tigers have put into making themselves better, they are a long way short of being an imposing club right now.

Defensively, they are even worse than last year, when they finished at minus-57 fielding zone runs above average. This year, with 10 games left, they are at minus-89, which means they give away more than half of a run per game defensively. Just looking at defensive runs saved, the Tigers are down significantly at many positions.

At first base and second base, the Tigers are improved defensively. Last year, Fielder was minus-13 in defensive runs saved at first base. This year, Cabrera is even (zero). At second base, they've improved from Omar Infante's minus-five to Kinsler's plus-16. But Cabrera was minus-18 at third base last year and Castellanos is minus-30 there now. At short, Peralta was even (zero) last year and the Tigers haven't found anyone better this year than Andrew Romine (minus-2). In left field, Andy Dirks was plus-eight last year. This year, Davis was minus-15 there, then they moved him to center field, where he is minus-three. Right fielder Torii Hunter has declined from minus-10 last year to minus-19 this year.

The Tigers were weak defensively last year, but their pitching staff papered over some of that by striking out 1,428 batters, most in the league. The Tigers last year also had the second-best ERA-plus in the league at 116. This year, the Tigers have a mediocre pitching staff with a 100 ERA-plus and they are way down to sixth in AL strikeouts at 1,170, just a tick better than the league average of 1,158. So, the Tigers defend terribly, and they don't have the pitching to hide that.

Individually, certain Tigers pitchers have been disappointing, particularly the guys at the front and back of their staff. Verlander is the fifth-best starter they have this year at 13-12 with a 4.81 ERA. Nathan is no better than the Jose Valverde of late 2012, running a 5.20 ERA. He has 32 saves, but he also has blown 10 saves (though he did come back and win two of those games).

Fans might think the Tigers should have won five or six more games by now, but the club's Pythagorean disagrees. The Tigers are 84-68 and their Pythagorean says they should be 81-71. Not much of a club. Good hitting (still), but also terrible defense (still). The difference is in the pitching, which has declined from near league leadership to middle of the pack.

So, the Royals don't need to be fantastic to jump into this thing, and they aren't. They are pitching and defense – third in the AL with a 114 ERA-plus and second only to Baltimore in defensive runs saved (36).

The Royals are good fun defensively. Their manager, Ned Yost, has said he might have a half-dozen Gold Gloves, and he's not far from wrong. The top candidates might be outfielders Lorenzo Cain (20 defensive runs saved), Alex Gordon (24), Jarrod Dyson (16) and catcher Salvador Perez (eight). Shortstop Alcides Escobar is a good defender, though his minus-three doesn't say so. First baseman Eric Hosmer is plus-two and Infante at second base is plus-one. Even their worst defenders aren't too bad. Third baseman Mike Moustakas is minus-two and right fielder Nori Aoki is minus-seven (though his fielding zone runs above average is plus-two).

When a ball club doesn't beat itself defensively, we shouldn't be surprised that it wins. Obviously, that defense supports terrific pitching. Leading the rotation are veteran James Shields (14-7, 3.15) and 25-year-old left-hander Danny Duffy (8-11, 2.42). The other starters – Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas and Yordano Ventura – are solid. The back three pitchers in the bullpen are much more than solid. Kelvin Herrera destroys the seventh inning for opposing hitters with a fastball that touches 100 miles per hour, Wade Davis is an eighth-inning guy with a 0.94 ERA and Greg Holland has a 1.54 ERA and 42 saves as the closer.

The Royals will go as far as the hitting takes them, which often isn't very far, but often enough is. For the season, the Royals are 11th in the AL in all three short-slash categories (.312/.375/.687) and they are ninth in runs with 610. They are 15th with 93 homers.

They do have some upsides, however. When the Royals have it working offensively, they are something in the mold of the Angels. They walk (358) and strike out (909) fewer times than any other club in the AL. They keep it moving, though, going third in league batting average (.261) and leading the league with 142 stolen bases (in 175 attempts, an .811 percentage). The AL is successful only 73 percent of the time on steals.

It's often said in sports that when your team isn't scoring, defense keeps you in it. But when the Royals don't score, they are so tepid that not even their pitching and defense can make it work.

Through May 28, for example, the Royals ran a long slash of .251/.306/.348/.654 with only 21 homers in those 58 games, and they were 24-28. During the next three weeks, they went on an offensive tear, slashing .290/.340/.440/.781 with 18 homers in 19 games, during which they were 15-4. The Royals won the last 10 of those games, the last three of them against the Tigers, including wins of 11-8 and 11-4. They took a 1 1/2 game lead in the division.

Then, the Kansas City offense went to sleep again. From June 19 through July 21, the Royals slashed .264/.307/.371/.679 with 16 homers in those 27 games, during which they were 9-18. They fell to third place in the AL Central, eight games down to the Tigers.

From July 22 through Aug. 27, we saw a slight offensive rally, though the pitching staff really had more to do with their 26-8 run that put them back into a 2 1/2 game division lead. The hitters slashed .264/.309/.400/.709 with 29 homers in those 34 games. The pitchers were terrific during that run, tossing a 2.90 ERA.

From Aug. 29 through now, the Royals hitters are back to not hitting, throwing a slash of .242/.307/.339/.647. The club is 9-10 during the run, losing 3 1/2 games to the Tigers. The pitching during that run has held steady with a 2.95 ERA.

We have, here, two mirror opposite clubs. The Tigers hit it, but they don't pitch it or catch it. The Royals pitch it and catch it. Sometimes, though, they also hit it. When they do, they win.

It makes forecasting this outcome rather a form proposition. If the Royals hit during these last 11 games of the season, they will prevail. If they don't, it's the Tigers. Again. Barely.