Showing posts with label Clayton Kershaw. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Clayton Kershaw. Show all posts

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Offense dies as Dodgers drop NL traveling title

The Dodgers lost the National League traveling championship by losing two of three at home against the Washington Nationals this week, continuing an offensive slump that now has lasted for longer than a week.


Max Scherzer struck out 14 for the Washington Nationals in a 2-1 win against the Dodgers on June 6 (Keith Allison/Creative Commons 2.0 Generic license).

An offensive surge took the Dodgers to the National League traveling championship last week, and now an offensive slump has taken it away.

Losing two of three games this week against the Washington Nationals at Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers lost the traveling championship to the visiting club. The Dodgers scored four runs in the three games.

The Dodgers remain on top of the traveling standings with two titles and 13 games of defense. But the Nationals have the league traveler for the first time this season and become the eighth club this year to claim the title.

The downfall for the Dodgers is a batting order that is prone to strikeouts and double plays, but is not as likely as most other clubs to hit the ball out of the park. Strikeouts are everywhere throughout the game now, but so are home runs. Except that's not how it works with the Dodgers, who entered games of June 9 with the fifth most strikeouts (541), but tied for 21st in home runs (66).

In their eight games from May 31 through June 7, the Dodgers scored only 18 runs – 10 of them in a 10-8 win on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers on June 3. In those eight games, the Dodgers hit four homers and struck out 91 times – 11.38 strikeouts per game. In those games, the Dodgers batted .166.

Somehow, the Dodgers won three of those games. The outburst against Milwaukee was one, Clayton Kershaw's 2-1 win against Washington's Stephen Strasburg on June 7 was another, and a 2-1 win against the Brewers on June 2, when Kershaw out-dueled Jimmy Nelson.

If it seems that the Dodgers can't win a game unless Kershaw pitches or the other team can't pitch, that's right. At least for the last eight games.



Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Dodgers dominate to capture NL traveling title

The Dodgers are finishing May by making a big move with the National League traveling championship. Hitting and pitching at a high level, the Dodgers are angling to become the third team this year to defend the title.


Cody Bellinger hit two homers for the Dodgers in a four-game stretch for the Dodgers while they played for the National League traveling championship (Johnmaxmena2/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license).

Closing out May, the Dodgers are playing their best baseball of the 2017 season. With five straight wins through May 29, the Dodgers aren't just winning. They are dominating.

It happens that the last four of those victories coincide with the traveling championship across the National League. The Dodgers now hold the title for the second time this season.

The Chicago Cubs arrived at Dodger Stadium with the NL traveling title on May 26, but it wasn't long before the Dodgers took it away. The Dodgers won three straight from the Cubs by a combined score of 18-4.

The Dodgers began a four-game series in St. Louis on May 30 with a 5-1 win against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Looking a little more closely at this four-game run by the Dodgers, we can see how sharp they've been against the defending World Champions and another club that has been a king in the NL for this entire century.

In those four games, the Dodgers hit 10 home runs. Balance has been key. Chase Utley and Cody Bellinger were the only Dodgers with two homers in this small run, so six players hit the other six homers.

As the composite batting numbers from the four games show (courtesy of baseball-reference.com), the Dodgers batted only .250. But 16 walks and 10 homers papers over a lot of batted-ball outs. They also paper over a lot of non-batted outs. The Dodgers struck out 41 times in these four games, the one disturbing trend across the team.

Pitcher by pitcher, start by start – and especially reliever by reliever – the Dodgers were all but untouchable. Their staff ERA in the four games was 1.25

On May 26, Dodgers left-hander Alex Wood pitched five shutout innings. He won, raising his mark to 6-0 and dropping his ERA to 1.69. Pedro Baez and Chris Hatcher each pitched two shutout relief innings to secure a 4-0 win.

The next day, Brandon McCarthy pitched six shutout innings, improving his numbers to 5-1 and 3.28. Ross Stripling finished a 5-0 win against the Cubs with three shutout innings.

On May 28, all of America anticipated a pitcher's duel between Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and Jon Lester of the Cubs. But Lester lasted not even four innings, and Kershaw hung around for barely more than that. Four Dodgers relievers combined for 4 2/3 hitless, shutout innings in a 9-4 Dodgers win.

On to St. Louis. On May 29, Dodgers starter Rich Hill gave up one run in five innings. Four Dodgers relievers combined for four shutout innings in a 5-1 win for the Dodgers.

The pitching numbers (from baseball-reference.com) are here, but one key set of numbers isn't. In these four games, the Dodgers produced 15 shutout relief innings.

Long-term, the Dodgers won't hold up if four out of five starts last only five innings. Their batters can't be striking out 10 times per game, either. Short-term, though, the Dodgers rolled up key wins against strong competition. And dominated with the NL traveling championship.

Famously, the Cardinals have owned the traveling championship in the NL since it launched in 2011. But the early indications in 2017 show that we could see different results.

The Cardinals whiffed on their first try at the NL traveler when they lost two of three at home to the San Francisco Giants May 19-21. With their Monday loss to the Dodgers, the Cardinals lost four of their first five games with the NL traveler this season.

The leading teams so far in 2017 are the Dodgers, the Giants and the Miami Marlins. The Marlins notched a title with three defenses in April. The Giants have a title with two defenses in May.

The Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, Cubs, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds all have won titles this season. But the Marlins and Giants are the only clubs to successfully defend it.

The Dodgers and Giants are the only clubs that have won it twice this season.



Monday, March 13, 2017

Playoff push takes Dodgers to First Division title

The Dodgers won their first title in the First Division, rallying past the Washington Nationals during the playoffs to break open a five-way race.


Clayton Kershaw finished off the Washington Nationals in the playoffs, nailing down the First Division championship for the Dodgers (Tony the Tiger/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license).

The Dodgers, who have spent as much time in the First Division as anyone, finally won the premier league crown in 2016. Playoff results, which are included in our baseball divisions, dramatically turned the race for the Dodgers.

The Texas Rangers actually led the top division at the end of the regular season, 14-9 with a winning percentage of .609, one-half game ahead of the second-place Dodgers at 21-17 and .553. But the post season included two series in the divisional round pitting First Division performers. The Dodgers were to play the Washington Nationals, while the Rangers were to face the Toronto Blue Jays. All four of those clubs, plus the San Francisco Giants remained in the championship hunt during the postseason.

The Giants also were in the playoffs, going against the Chicago Cubs in the first round. If the Giants and Dodgers had both won in the first round, they would have met in the National League Championship Series, possibly with the First Division on the line.

Entering the first round playoff games of Oct. 11, the picture boiled down, just a little. The Rangers had taken themselves out of contention by losing in three straight against Toronto. The Dodgers and Giants both were down, two games to one, in the playoffs. So, the Giants (21-18, .538), Dodgers (22-19, .537), Blue Jays (22-19, .537) and Nationals (14-12, .538) all were rather stuck together.

October 11 was the day of Game Four both for the Giants/Cubs and the Dodgers/Nationals. But the Giants lost their Game Four to the Cubs, thus losing the series in as many games and missing their chance to face the Dodgers in the next round. Meanwhile, the Dodgers took a 5-2 lead in their Game Four against the Nationals, who then tied it with three runs in the top of the seventh inning. Then the Dodgers regained the lead with Chase Utley's base hit to drive in Andrew Toles in the bottom of the eighth, and Kenley Jansen saved the ninth for a 6-5 Dodgers win.

Now, it came down to Game Five for the Dodgers and Nationals. The Dodgers were 23-19 and .547, first place, but barely ahead of the Giants (21-18, .538) and the Blue Jays (22-19, .537). The Nationals were 14-13 now, falling out of the race even if they were to win Game Five. With a loss, the Dodgers would have finished in a tie with Toronto and the Giants in the games back column, with the Giants leading by one percentage point, the slimmest of margins for the First Division title.

But the Dodgers wiped out that controversy with their 4-3 Game Five win against the Nationals at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers brought in Clayton Kershaw in a save situation, and, somehow, the Nationals resorted to Wilmer Difo as their two-out hitter with the tying run at second base in the top of the ninth. Kershaw struck out Difo in three pitches, giving the Dodgers, at 24-19 and .538, the undisputed First Division lead.

It remained that the Dodgers and Blue Jays could have met in the World Series with the First Division on the line between those two clubs. But neither club made it that far, the Dodgers falling to the Cubs in the National League Championship Series and the Jays losing to the Cleveland Indians in the American League Championship Series.

So, the 2016 standings in the top two divisions divisions ended like this:


We forewarn the Dodgers, though, that defending the First Division championship is a perilous station. For the last four years, a team defending the title fell to the relegation zone the very next year and was banished to the next level down.

In 2016, that team was the St. Louis Cardinals, the last standing charter member of the First Division in 2010 without since then being relegated. But once the Cardinals claimed their first share of a First Division title in a split with the Tampa Bay Rays and San Francisco Giants in 2015, they plummeted to 9-18 in 2016, last place in the top tier. They will be joined in relegation by the Kansas City Royals, who had just been promoted to the high level for 2016.

With the Cardinals now gone, Tampa Bay is the longest running member of the First Division, winning promotion to the top division in 2011 and staying there since. For all of their larger apparent troubles, the Rays hang tough every year against this high level of competition. Even in 2016, when they didn't contend, they still finished 19-20.

In fact, the Rays are the last team to win the First Division outright without being relegated the next season. They entered league and won it in 2011, then finished within a game of the top in each of the next two seasons before claiming a share of the 2015 title.

The New York Yankees won a First Division title in 2012 and earned relegation a year later. The same happened with the Texas Rangers, who won it in 2013, and the Angels, who won it in 2014 before it happened to the 2015 co-champion Cardinals in 2016.

Through the regular season, the Cleveland Indians were an afterthought in the Second Division – fifth place 13-10 and .565, well behind the first-place Boston Red Sox at 25-14 and .641. The second promotional position was held by the Pittsburgh Pirates (20-15, .571), barely over the Milwaukee Brewers and the Yankees, both 20-16 and .556.

But the Indians had an opportunity that the Pirates, Brewers and Yankees did not have – a divisional playoff series against the Red Sox. Winning three straight against the Red Sox, the Indians hoisted themselves through the standings, all the way up to the winning percentage portion of the Second Division title at 16-10 and .615, but still behind the Red Sox (25-17, .595 ) in the games column.


A key performer for the Indians, reliever Andrew Miller, notched the victory in Game One, then pitched two key shutout innings in Cleveland's clinching 4-3 win in Game 3 against the Boston Red Sox (Artura Pardavila III/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

Thus, the Indians and Red Sox are the two clubs being promoted to the First Division in 2017, replacing the Royals and Cardinals, who will come down from the First Division to the Second Division. At the bottom of the Second Division, the Angels and Atlanta Braves appear joined at the hip in their decline. Both were freshly demoted to the Second Division in 2016, and both are being demoted again, to the Third Division, in 2017.

The Detroit Tigers, New York Mets and Chicago Cubs dominated the Third Division in 2016. Each had a Third Division patsy within its regular big league division, and each took advantage. The Tigers were 15-4 against the Minnesota Twins, the Cubs were 15-4 against the Cincinnati Reds, and the Mets were 12-7 against the Philadelphia Phillies.


By being just a nudge better, nine winning percentage points, the Phillies staved off the Twins and averted relegation. The Reds, who finished in last place, are to be relegated, with the Twins, to the Fourth Division in 2017. The Twins, a charter First Division club in 2010, now are headed to the bottom level.

On the top of this heap, the Tigers were unstoppable. They roughed up the Twins pretty good, but they also were 20-12 against their other Third Division opponents and notched winning records against every such team that they played. At 35-16 and .686, the Tigers needed every bit of it to avoid sharing the division championship with the Mets and Cubs.

The Mets were the second-place team, 28-13 and .683. The Tigers, playing so many more games, still won the games column by two, but barely finished ahead by percentage. The Cubs were right there, too, 26-13 and .667. However, the Mets won five of their seven games against the Cubs to secure Second Division promotion with the Tigers in 2017.

Coming down from the Second Division and replacing the promoted Tigers and Mets in the Third Division are the Angels and Braves. Neither team seems likely to become a noise maker in the Third Division.

The more likely Third Division noise makers figure to be the teams coming up from the Fourth Division, the Houston Astros and the Miami Marlins. The Astros became a strong club across big league baseball in 2015, but only now have they been able to escape from the Fourth Division dungeon, a house of horrors they first entered in 2011.

The Fourth Division is loathe to give up good teams that fall into its clutches. The Baltimore Orioles fell to the Fourth Division in 2015. Last year, in their second attempt to escape, they finished at the bottom of this lowest division for the second straight time.

Monday, August 3, 2015

Dodgers, Angels still fighting to stay in First Division

The Dodgers improved their status in the First Division during the weekend, but at the expense of the Angels. The Dodgers swept three games from the Orange County club, pushing themselves slightly out of the relegation zone while the Angels fell to last place in the top tier.


Don Mattingly continues to do a lot right managing the Dodgers, but his club's struggle against top clubs continues to be costly in the First Division, despite a three-game sweep of the Angels during the weekend (Cbl62/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The First Division came to August divided into two divisions, with half of the teams seriously in the fight to win the championship and the other half desperately fighting to stave off relegation to the Second Division for 2016.

The Angels and Dodgers both are in the wrong half of that mix, and that didn't change with the Dodgers sweeping the Angels in a three-game series during the weekend at Dodger Stadium. What did change is that the Dodgers no longer are the bottom team in the top tier. The Angels have taken their place.

The dramatic home run hitting of Andre Ethier lifted the Dodgers in a big way Sunday. His solo homer in the bottom of the eighth inning gave the Dodgers a 3-2 lead. His two-run homer in the bottom of the tenth gave the Dodgers a 5-3 win to go with wins of 5-3 on Saturday and 3-1 Friday.

With those victories, the Dodgers improved to 13-18 in the First Division, barely out of the relegation zone. The Dodgers are one-half game ahead of the Atlanta Braves, who are 12-18. The only club beneath the Braves is the Angels, who are defending their First Division championship from 2014 with a 5-11 performance in 2015.

The bottom two teams in the First Division are relegated to the Second Division for 2016.

The Dodgers never trailed in either of the first two games, winning Friday night behind right-hander Zack Greinke and winning Saturday afternoon behind left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Newly acquired right-hander Mat Latos wasn't bad, either, giving up one run on four hits Sunday in his six-inning Dodger debut.

The Angels are attempting to defend their First Division title from 2014 with a light schedule, which can work, but, as this season has shown, might not. The Angels have only six games left this year in the First Division, all at home – three against the Toronto Blue Jays Aug. 21-23 and three with the Dodgers Sept. 7-9.

The Angels could escape relegation by winning a majority of those games, but that remains to be seen and it will have a lot to do with how the Dodgers, Braves and Toronto Blue Jays (10-13) play out the rest of the year. Even if the Angels win a substantial portion of those six games, four or five of them, it guarantees nothing.

The Angels have the unwelcome distinction of being the best club ever relegated from the First Division, finishing 16-18 (.474 winning percentage) in 2011 and still going down. The Minnesota Twins that year turned in the worst ever performance for a First Division club with an 11-26 record (.297).

That demotion began a free fall for the Twins, who then were demoted to the Third Division for 2013 and the Fourth Division in 2014 before rising back to the Third Division this season.

Now the Twins are making a strong bid for a promotion to the Second Division as they lead the Third Division at 15-9, one-half game in front of the Arizona Diamondbacks (13-8). The Philadelphia Phillies (9-7) and Boston Red Sox (11-9) are the top teams in pursuit of those top two slots for a 2016 promotion.

The Angels barely missed promotion back to the First Division with a strong Second Division showing in 2012, but they won the Second Division easily in 2013 and took the First Division championship last season. In 2014, the Angels became the second team in as many years, and the third in four years, to win the First Division fresh in from a promotion. Now, the Angels are in danger of repeating the performance of the Texas Rangers, who won it in 2013 right off of a promotion, then bottomed into relegation a year later.

For the Dodgers, it's a matter of being unable to hold up against the better clubs, which we have seen again and again this season. Last week, the Dodgers went to Atlanta for three games against the Braves, a First Division team which, by the lights of the Major League standings, probably are the worst club in the top tier this season. But the Braves beat the Dodgers twice.

The Dodgers don't have a lot of First Division games left, either. In addition to the three in Anaheim against the Angels, they will play three against the San Francisco Giants at home Aug. 31-Sept. 2 and four in San Francisco Sept. 28-Oct. 1.

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Henry Aaron Award: Giants foil Dodgers, again

Just as the Dodgers were about to set the all-time record for Henry Aaron Award title defenses, they ran into their nemesis for all time, the San Francisco Giants. The Giants shut out the Dodgers three straight in San Francisco this week, stopping the Dodgers at six consecutive Aaron defenses.


San Francisco Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner beat the Dodgers for the second time in 2015 this week. The Giants snatched the Henry Aaron Award for the first time this season (SD Dirk/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

You can leave it to the San Francisco Giants to ruin the fun for the Dodgers. But don't get the wrong idea. 

Some folks think the Dodgers are spooked by the Giants. They're not. The Giants don't beat their opponents by spooking them. The Giants win because they are good.

So, the Giants have done it to the Dodgers here, sweeping them three May 19-21 at AT&T Park to take away the Henry Aaron Award just as the Dodgers were poised to set a record with it.

Instead, the Dodgers came through that series heading into a record no one wants. The Dodgers didn't score a run for the entire series, going one-for-17 with runners in scoring position. The first two starting pitchers to take them down for the Giants were 39-year-old right-hander Tim Hudson and the nowadays unremarkable Tim Lincecum (though he is off to a nice start in 2015 — 4-2 with a 2.08 ERA). 

The finale went to Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner, who beat Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw for the second time this season and may, in view of his 2014 World Series performance, be the top pitcher going right now. Bumgarner and Kershaw locked up on one earlier game this year in which neither pitcher took a decision, but, in the course of this season, the Giants won.

The Dodgers entered the series with a record-tying six consecutive Henry Aaron title defenses, then went down by scores of 4-0, 4-0 and 2-0. 

Following the series, the Dodgers returned to Dodger Stadium and failed to score in their first four innings Friday night against the San Diego Padres. With a scoreless fifth inning, the Dodgers would have set their all-time record with 36 consecutive scoreless innings. With a scoreless game, the Dodgers would have been the first team to be shut out four consecutive times for the first time since the Chicago Cubs in 1992.

But Andre Ethier broke that streak for the Dodgers with a run-scoring double in the fifth. Before Ethier stepped in, the Dodgers had gone 133 consecutive batters without scoring a run. The Dodgers ended up beating the Padres Friday night, 2-1.

Anyway, the Giants have the Aaron again after their terrific run with it to end the 2014 season. The Giants have won it for the first time in 2015.

But the Dodgers took a big lead in the Aaron standings, in which they now are 15-10 with 22 days holding the honor. 

Now, it's the Giants' turn after taking down the Dodgers, as they will do to the Dodgers and as the Dodgers will do to them, because that's what these clubs have always done to each other. It's true that the Giants now have beaten the Dodgers in all six games the two clubs have played in San Francisco this season. But that isn't the Giants spooking the Dodgers. 

Remember that the Dodgers beat the Giants two-of-three at Dodger Stadium this year, and the Dodgers beat the Giants in seven of their last nine meetings last year, including five of their last six in San Francisco. 

Whichever club is riding high, that's the club that's going down when these clubs meet. It isn't spooks. It's just a great rivalry.

Saturday, May 2, 2015

Henry Aaron Award: Dodgers do a turn

The Henry Aaron Award is in the hands of the Dodgers, who took it from the San Diego Padres on the road last weekend and have held it since. The Padres had taken it from the San Francisco Giants, ending a long run with the prize for the World Champions.


Joc Pederson had a .938 slugging percentage (three homers, a double and a single) in 16 at-bats from April 24 through May 1 (TonyTheTiger/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers have defended the Henry Aaron Award by winning two of three from the San Francisco Giants this week at Dodger Stadium.

A 7-3 rubber game win over the Giants on April 29 clinched it for the Dodgers, who hit four home runs against right-hander Ryan Vogelsong, all from the left-handed batters box. Joc Pederson, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier and Jimmy Rollins all went long.

A night earlier, in an anticipated meeting between ace left-handers Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and Madison Bumgarner of the Giants, the Dodgers sat all of their left-handed hitting and turned in a tepid offensive performance in a 2-1 loss. The Dodgers had won the series opener, 8-5.

That came after the Dodgers won the Aaron by taking two of three on the road from the San Diego Padres.

The Dodgers denied another moment with the Aaron to the Giants, who took it  from the Padres during the final regular season series of 2014, then held it all the way through the World Series. The Giants maintained it through their first series of 2015, winning two of three from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Then, the Giants met the Padres again for the second series of the new season. After the Giants won the opener, 1-0 (on April 9), the Padres beat them three straight to recapture the Aaron. And the Padres kept it through more than two weeks of remarkably efficient offense.

With their celebrated new lineup, the Padres held the Aaron for three defenses to take the early lead in the standings. They didn't lose it until the Dodgers beat them on April 25 in San Diego to clinch a series victory with an 11-8 victory. In that game, Ethier, Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick and Juan Uribe all homered for the Dodgers.

In 15 games after that 1-0 loss to the Giants, the Padres scored 79 runs (5.3 per game) and stranded only 86 (5.7 per game), a ratio approaching one-to-one. In the National League, particularly, the ratio of runners stranded to runs scored runs closer to two-to-one, generally. Through April 27, NL teams scored 1,150 runs and left 1,958 runners on base. In 2014, NL teams scored 9,600 runs and left 16,646 runners on base.

Through April 27, the Padres were the league's best-hitting team with two outs and runners in scoring position, carding a .318 batting average. No other NL team was batting higher than .269. The Padres drove in 30 runs (and scored 30) in their 95 place appearances on that split.

2015 Henry Aaron (interleague) standings and results through April 29

Standings

                        W    L    P    T    G    D    A
San Francisco   5     5     3     0     7     1     2
Arizona             2     4    2     0     0     0     0
San Diego         10   7    5     1   13     3     4
DODGERS       4     2    2    1     3     1     1
Colorado           2     2    1     0    0     0     0
Chicago (NL)    1     2     1    0    0     0     0

W — Wins. L — Losses. P — Times played for title. T — Titles won. G — Number of games that team held title after winning it. D — Title defenses. A — Title defense attempts.

Results
San Francisco 2, Arizona 1 — April 6-8 at Arizona.
San Diego 3, San Francisco 1  April 10-12 at San Diego.
San Diego 2, Arizona 1  April 13-15 at San Diego.
San Diego 2, Chicago (NL) 1  April 17-19 at Chicago.
San Diego 2, Colorado 2  April 20-23 at Denver (San Diego, 26-16).
DODGERS 2, San Diego 1  April 24-26 at San Diego.
DODGERS 2, San Francisco 1  April 27-29 at Los Angeles.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Are the Giants and Dodgers cooking a greater rivalry?

The Dodgers and San Francisco Giants are always in each other's business. But they have too seldom, in the last several decades, both been in the business of winning the championship at the same time. This year, now that it's all but certain that both clubs will be in the playoffs, they might be getting back to what once made the rivalry great.


Juan Marichal's 1965 attack against Dodgers catcher John Roseboro was a peak moment in hostilities between the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants way back when these clubs often tangled for the National League pennant (Copyright holder unknown. It is believed that this low resolution image of an event in the Dodgers-Giants rivalry that is referenced in this text about the rivalry constitutes fair use in the absence of a public domain image.).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers and San Francisco Giants came to the final week with the National League West on the line, and it's been a while since these long-time rivals really fought over anything important.

Been a while?

It almost never happens.

It's all but sacrilegious to say so in these parts, but that's just the way it is. Whatever places in the standings these clubs have occupied through the years, they somehow always shadow each other, always getting into each other's business. But as far as being a rivalry of importance throughout the game, we might just as well have written it off as an artifact of the 20th century. Twice before in the 21st century, the Dodgers and Giants finished first and second, in whatever order, in the NL West, and only one other time has that been the case since 1971. Of the episodes in which the Dodgers or Giants came up big to spoil the other's chances, they were 20th century events.

So, the Dodgers and Giants met just now at Dodger Stadium with first place on the line in the final week of the season. The Dodgers entered the series with a 4 1/2 game lead, meaning the Giants could have whittled it to 1 1/2 game with a three-game sweep going to the final weekend. It could have come off the way it has happened so many times back in history, with the Dodgers entering as the big men in the standings only to be brought back to earth by the Giants, or vice versa.

It didn't actually happen that way this time because the Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, two forces greater than history in today's baseball. Greinke and Kershaw won the last two games of the series, with Kershaw playing his characteristic all-around game Wednesday night as the Dodgers won the clincher, 9-1, in front of their home crowd.

So, the Dodgers won two of three to put the NL West in the bag for this year, but the Giants still are all but in the playoffs, needing either one win or a loss by the Milwaukee Brewers in the final weekend of the season to clinch the National League's second wildcard, in which case they are headed to Pittsburgh for the wildcard game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. And that raises the possibility that the Dodgers and Giants really aren't done with each other, yet, because they still could meet in the playoffs.

The rivalry, great as it is and has been for about the last 100-odd years, could do with that boost.

A great national rivalry is about championships. A lesser local rivalry is about Schadenfreude. That's the basic flavor of the Dodgers and Giants for about the last four decades. It's usually been about one club struggling before rising to ruin the other's aspirations. The Giants have done it more often to the Dodgers than the other way around. The Giants did it to the Dodgers in 1980, 1982, 1991 and 1997, in each case coming up from the bottom to keep the Dodgers from the top in late-season events. The Dodgers did it to the Giants in 1982 (they actually did it to each other in 1982), 1993 and 2001. We might also put 2012 in the column for the Giants, who beat the Dodgers only once in the final three-game series of the season at Dodger Stadium, but it was enough to keep the Dodgers out of wildcard contention and the Giants went on to win the World Series.

But none of those events were titan struggles. They all were one club keeping the other from celebrating, which isn't nothing, but it isn't enough to establish a championship rivalry, either. The Dodgers and Giants may be central adversaries in each other's narratives, but the central rivalries in the narrative of Major League Baseball are elsewhere. There has been, really, only one of those in the last generation, and it has all but died, as well.

We mean, of course, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, who always worked a peculiar backyard antagonism, but never became a championship rivalry – a rivalry of  importance across the game – until the Red Sox finally were just about good enough to take down the Yankees for high stakes and, then, actually were good enough to finish the job. All of America rolled its eyes at times over the national media's promotion of the Yankees and Red Sox as the only two clubs that really mattered – in relation to each other and across the game – but the national media wasn't wrong.

Starting with the first wildcard playoffs in 1995, the Yankees and Red Sox both were in the playoffs eight times in 15 seasons (1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2009), meaning they finished, in whichever order, first and second in the American League East. In 2000, the Yankees beat the second-place Red Sox by 2 1/2 games for the division, so the Yankees went to the playoffs and the Red Sox didn't.

In every season of wildcard playoffs except for this year, at least one of those clubs went to the playoffs. During the height of that rivalry, the Yankees and Red Sox met in the playoffs three times in six years (1999, 2003 and 2004), the winner of that series ultimately winning the World Series in 1999 and 2004. That rivalry mattered up until now, when it doesn't.

Those with the West Coast bias often shrugged about the Yankees and Red Sox, saying the rivalry between the Dodgers and Giants is better. But they had to argue using history, ancient history by today's short attention standards. The Dodgers and Giants have a much longer and deeper championship rivalry, and we might even say it has been broader, taking place, as it has, along two different coasts. But that was a while ago.

The Dodgers and Giants had their best days as a rivalry during the 1950s and the 1960s, finishing first and second, in whichever order, six time in 15 years across the National League, which didn't have divisions (1951, 1952, 1954, 1962, 1965 and 1966). Those days produced some of the game's most enduring moments, like Bobby Thompson's "Shot Heard 'Round the World" in 1951 to complete the Giants' surge to overtake the Dodgers in 1951, or the ghastly bat beating by Giants pitcher Juan Marichal against Dodgers catcher John Roseboro in 1965, as these clubs fought over the pennant. Those days were the height of the rivalry. When the leagues divided into divisions, the Giants and Dodgers finished one-two in the NL West in 1971.

But then came down times for the Giants, and the Dodgers wrestled with the Cincinnati Reds for the NL West through the 1970s. The rivalry made a brief comeback, of sorts, in 1982, but the Atlanta Braves prevailed, with the Dodgers finishing a game behind them and the Giants finishing a game behind the Dodgers. The Dodgers and Giants met for the final three games of the season and, after the Dodgers won the first two to eliminate the Giants, Joe Morgan hit a two-run homer for the Giants in the eighth on the last day of the season, giving his club a 5-3 win to eliminate the Dodgers.

Now, though, we've come to something like the real deal, for we're looking at the likelihood of the Dodgers and Giants both going to the playoffs, along with the possibility that they could face each other some time in October. That gave the Yankees and Red Sox real spice, those years when those two clubs would play each other 25 times.

We love the Dodgers and Giants out here. Vin Scully grew up in New York loving the Giants before launching his career of 65 years broadcasting the Dodgers, and he still always has one eye on the Giants, and that's part of what makes the whole thing work. But he doesn't often get to put both eyes on both teams playing against each other for everything. None of us do, either along the West Coast or across the country. But, maybe, that is changing this year.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Kershaw no Koufax ... and thank heaven!

Comparisons between Clayton Kershaw and Sandy Koufax are inevitable and, fortunately, misguided. Kershaw will never be used as Koufax was used, which means we don't have to worry that Kershaw will retire at age 30 with a traumatically arthritic left arm. That aside, Kershaw not only is the best pitcher, but the best complete baseball player going today.


Clayton Kershaw, left, and Sandy Koufax, right, aren't exactly mirror images (Original crop and collage. Kershaw photo by kla4067/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license. Koufax photo by unknown. It is believed that this cropped, low-resolution image constitutes fair use in the absence of a public domain image).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Appropriate witness to the greatness of Clayton Kershaw is easily to be found, except in these pages, and we shall attempt to rectify that error forthwith.

Our version shall contain a slightly different wrinkle, however, for the usual account contains the details of Kershaw's standing merely as a pitcher, of which he is the best in the world at this moment, and for at least the last three or four years of moments, and, perhaps for three or four years of moments hence, if not for longer. 

If all one knows about Kershaw is the man on the mound and the pitches coming from his hand, that, alone, imparts the knowledge that the Dodgers left-hander is the best. The fastball isn't 100 miles per hour, but he has gotten it to 98, and he works it 92-95 with puzzling late movement that sometimes tails in on a right-handed hitter, highly unusual for a left-handed pitcher. But that slider, which touches 88, probably is his best pitch, and his looping 12-to-6 curveball is his most beautiful. They all work. Sometimes, rarely, he throws a changeup. It works, too. 

If all one knows about Kershaw is what appears on the spreadsheet, the black ink imparts the knowledge that the Dodgers left-hander is the best. Kershaw won his 19th game of 2014 on Sept. 14 in San Francisco, a 4-2 win against the San Francisco Giants. With 19 wins, Kershaw leads the National League, despite missing the entire month of April with injury. He missed four or five starts that way, enough for four or five wins. He's 19-3. He also leads the NL in complete games (six), ERA (1.70), winning percentage (.864), ERA-plus (210), fielding independent pitching (1.86), WHIP (0.826), fewest hits per nine innings pitched (6.1), strikeouts per nine innings pitched (10.6) and strikeouts per walk (7.82). He already won the Cy Young Award in 2011 and 2013, finished second in 2012, and has to win it again this year.

Kershaw now is working on his fourth straight NL ERA title, his third straight league leadership in ERA-plus, his fourth straight league leadership in WHIP, and his third league leadership in four years in fewest hits allowed per nine innings (which also is his fourth in six years). 

Comparisons with the all-time great Dodgers left-hander Sandy Koufax are inevitable, and they are rather forced. Each is the best left-hander of his time. That's where it ends, and where it should end. These are different times, and they are different men. Additionally, the great Koufax we remember and the great Kershaw of today are in different stages of their careers.

Behold, to begin, this composite of Koufax's last four seasons, 1963 through the present point in 1966. We'll never see anything like it again.

The closest to it that we will see today is this composite of Kershaw's last four years, 2011 through this point in 2014. It dazzles, but it does not compare.

We should remember, however, that Kershaw was much younger for the last four years than Koufax during 1963-1966. Kershaw is 26 today. Koufax was 30 when he retired at the end of the 1966 season. When we compare Koufax in the four years through his age 26 season to Kershaw's four years to this point, Kershaw is ahead, hands down. Here is the composite for Koufax for the four years ending with his age 26 season in 1962.

The Koufax we came to know began in 1963, his age 27 season, when he won the first of his three Cy Young Awards in four years. Kershaw will never be that guy, which is for the best. Teams invest too much in their premium pitchers today to load them up with 330 innings per year and force their retirements just so they may have functioning arms for the rest of their lives. Koufax did just that, and for just that reason, after the 1966 season.

At his retirement press conference, Koufax was asked, famously, how he could walk away from all the money he could make as a baseball player. Koufax replied that if a man lost the use of one of his arms, he would pay any amount of money to get it back and that, in a sense, is what he was doing. Koufax made $125,000 in 1966, claiming the highest salary in the game due largely to his dual holdout with Don Drysdale

Koufax already knew he was in trouble when he missed the last six weeks of the 1964 season with traumatic arthritis in his left arm. At the end of spring training in 1965, his arm was black and blue from hemorrhaging. He papered over it with cocktails of pain-killing drugs, ointments and ice, then pitched 335 2/3 innings that year. His feats of sacrificial endurance continued through Game 7 of the World Series, when he entered on two days of rest before all but ditching his curveball by the third inning. Throwing almost all fastballs, Koufax beat the Minnesota Twins, 2-0, in a complete-game three-hitter. 

Then came 1966, with its 27-9 record, its 1.73 ERA, its 41 starts, its 27 complete games, its five shutouts, its 323 innings and its 317 strikeouts, all league-leading totals. Then came his retirement.

Kershaw will never go through anything like that, and we should be grateful. No club would be dumb enough to abuse a great pitcher to that extent. The reason no club would be that dumb isn't so much that clubs are enlightened, as that they are invested. The Dodgers have Kershaw signed to a seven-year contract worth $215 millions. Or, we should say, Kershaw has the Dodgers signed to that contract. Koufax had the Dodgers signed to nothing, so tearing him up cost the Dodgers nothing. Those were the days before the union mattered, though Koufax also deserves credit for helping to make the union matter. His dual holdout with Drysdale showed players what they might accomplish by bargaining collectively. His early retirement showed players what they might lose by not bargaining collectively, though they were beginning to realize that already.

Kershaw is signed for six more seasons, at annual salaries from 2015 through 2020 ranging from $30 million to $33 million. At the end of that contract, Kershaw will be 32. Those salaries are guaranteed. The Dodgers are paying them even if Kershaw's arms fall off. The Dodgers will bear most any burden to keep those arms from falling off. The bore no such burden for Koufax.

So, Kershaw isn't Koufax, and we don't want him to be Koufax. Kershaw is something else, entirely, and, for this, he doesn't receive nearly his deserved credit.

Kershaw isn't merely a great pitcher, the greatest of our time. He is much more than that, an outstanding baseball player at all facets of the game. Pitchers aren't supposed to be great baseball players, and few are. They are supposed to be great pitchers, and few are even that. Kershaw is a great performer in every aspect of the game. He might not be Babe Ruth if he had the chance, but comparisons with Babe Ruth make about as much sense as comparisons with Koufax – if comparisons between Ruth and anyone make any sense, or, for that matter, if comparisons between Koufax and anybody make any sense. Ruth, of course, was a dominant left-handed pitcher with the Boston Red Sox before he became a dominant power hitter with the New York Yankees.

Kershaw has one home run in his whole life, a memorable blast on Opening Day 2013 to beat the Giants, 1-0. In his last four seasons, he is a .196 hitter, remarkable for any pitcher, considering that they place no emphasis on hitting. As a batter, Kershaw has positive WAR in his career (1.2). It is absolutely no rarity for Kershaw to throw a complete game and go one-for-three at the plate. Excepting the concern about possible injury, a manager in a bind wouldn't hesitate to run him up there as a left-handed pinch hitter.

Nor would such a manager hesitate to use Kershaw as a pinch runner, because he has more presence of mind and competitive drive on the bases than many everyday players. We saw a great example on Sept. 2, when the Washington Nationals visited Dodger Stadium. Batting with one out in the bottom of the fifth in a scoreless game, Kershaw singled. When Dee Gordon followed with a ground single to center field, Kershaw challenged Nationals center fielder Bryce Harper with a sprint to third base. Kershaw won the challenge, easily beating Harper's throw and enabling Gordon to take second. Kershaw, the pitcher, set a tone that day. Kershaw, the batter and base runner, finished it. With two out that inning, Adrian Gonzalez hit a ground ball to short and the Washington shortstop, Ian Desmond, lost so much nerve thinking about an aggressive Kershaw and a speedy Gordon that he threw wildly to home and both runners scored. The Dodgers won that game, 4-1.

As a defender, Kershaw's perfectionism continues. He won a Gold Glove in 2011, and certainly could argue for more. Kershaw has made only four errors in his entire career, which comes to 209 appearances (207 starts) his fielding percentages have been higher than the league averages for pitchers ever year starting with 2009 and, by the defensive runs saved metric, he saves five runs per game as a defender compared with other pitchers over the last four years.

Koufax, great of a pitcher as he was, never was any match for Kershaw as a hitter, base runner or fielder, by the metrics or by eye witness testimony.

It isn't simply that Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher of our time. There isn't a better complete player, period.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

No reason for Dodgers to deal on deadline

The Dodgers already have plenty enough to win this year. In order for them to have enough for winning every year, they must refrain from dealing prospect talent that gives them a chance to win every year in exchange for a pitcher who would be marginally valuable right now. It sounds like the Dodgers will play this right.

The Dodgers have moved shortstop prospect Corey Seager up to the Chattanooga Lookouts in the Southern League (Feelin' Kinda Blue/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles


Reports indicate that the Dodgers are going to cool it on today's trading deadline and refrain from making a deal for a pitcher, or anything else. Good.

The Dodgers have enough players to win already. It would make absolutely no sense at this point for them to trade anything of value for a two-month rental on a pitcher like Boston Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester, good as he is, or any amount of Red Sox right-hander John Lackey.

The Dodgers began the season with a $230 million player payroll. These players haven't all been golden. But they have been good enough to take a three-game lead on the San Francisco Giants in the National League West, and they still haven't really begun hitting.

The deadline arrives with the season going right for the Dodgers. They've won five straight with their 3-2, 10-inning win at Dodger Stadium Wednesday night against the Atlanta Braves. Matt Kemp is hitting .400 since the All-Star break with three homers in the last two days, and he's playing with fury we haven't seen since 2012. And the Giants have been flailing, though they snapped their six-game losing streak with a 7-5 win Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Fans always want to win every year, which is more than legitimate, but they generally want to win every year one year at a time, and you're not going to win every year that way. The management's job is to win every year. That means a good front office will hang onto prospects rather than maximize the opportunity to win this year.

But the Dodgers wouldn't maximize anything by adding a pitcher at the deadline, anyway. They've already got the best threesome going in Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu. Josh Beckett has been more than solid as a No. 4. Do they need a No. 5? Of course not.

Everyone remembers those Atlanta Braves clubs that always had a solid pitching rotation one through four, sometimes one through five, won 14 consecutive divisions and came out of it with precisely one World Championship. They were great clubs that almost never went all the way because that attribute of four or five strong starting pitchers is no advantage during the postseason.

During the regular season, when you're playing 20 games in 21 days, having four or five good starting pitchers will get you 100 wins. But during the postseason, when you're playing three games every four days or, maybe, five games every seven games, that No. 5 starter never appears. He becomes all but useless. The manager will use his one through three as often as possible. The No. 4 will get one start in a seven-game series.

If the Dodgers could add a pitcher who would be one of their best two or three starters, perhaps a deal would be worth making. But nobody on the market qualifies, including Lester, despite his 10-7, 2.52 performance this year for the Red Sox. If the Dodgers were to add Lester and make him their No. 4, then run their starters straight-up one through four during the postseason, then Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu all become less valuable because they wouldn't work as often. It would be rather too much of a good thing, and the cost would be a prospect, a good one, probably Corey Seagar or Joc Pederson for a pitcher who probably is gone after the postseason, anyway.

Lackey doesn't present quite the same problem. He's 11-7 with a 3.60 ERA. If he's on the Dodgers as their No. 4, then we can suppose the Dodgers wouldn't run out their starters, one through four, in turn, during the postseason. Lackey would take probably one start in a seven-game series. But, then, what's the point of having Lackey for the postseason?

The Dodgers ownership struck boldly to acquire players on taking over in 2012, but the club president, Stan Kasten, said back then that the goal was to develop players. They've got a couple in their system now who project to become big producers for many years. Trading either of them, for virtually any price, would be foolish.

Pederson is a 22-year-old outfielder OPSing 1.035 in the Pacific Coast League, where the average hitter is 26.6 years old and OPSing .766. Seager is 20 years old and recently promoted to the Southern League, where he is playing shortstop every day. In eight games there, he is OPSing .745. The league's average hitter is 24.5 years old and OPSing .712. For most of the season, he played in the California League, OPSing 1.044. The average hitter in that league is 22.8 years old and OPSing .767.

It's remarkable that anyone would advocate trading either player for a pitcher who would be marginally valuable, if that, for the Dodgers in the postseason.

The Dodgers already have an excellent chance to win this year. The goal for this organization is to win every year. They should keep the prospects. It sounds like they will.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.


Friday, June 13, 2014

Dodgers freeze in first inning

The Dodgers lack luster so far, and it shows in the way they start the game. The Dodgers have scored only 25 runs in the first inning. Only San Diego, among National League clubs, has fewer runs to show for the first frame.


Dee Gordon has made many contributions this season for the Dodgers, but he's still not getting the offense started in the first inning (bridgetds/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Those arriving so late as to miss the first inning at Dodger Stadium aren't seeing nothing happening.

Nothing happening is the Dodgers offense in the first inning, specifically at home. Across baseball through the years, the first inning is the best inning for scoring, but it's one of the worst this year for the Dodgers. Entering a six-game homestand on June 13, they've scored only 25 first-inning runs all season, the second-lowest total in the National League. Only the San Diego Padres, with 20, are less successful.

If you're able to see the road games because you're able to see the Dodgers on TV, you might not notice it as much. The Dodgers are about like a normal club in the first inning on the road, scoring in the first inning 11 times for a total of 17 runs (they're 8-3 in those games). The average Major League club has scored 31.8 runs in the first inning this year (home and road), so the Dodgers are close to the average just as a road team.

At home, the Dodgers have scored only six times in the first inning, totaling eight runs (They're 2-4 in those games.). When you look at the Dodgers having the second-worst home record in the league at 13-19, it would seem that failing to score in the first inning 26 times has something to do with it.

In 32 home games, the Dodgers have scored three runs or fewer 16 times. They have won one of those games. They have scored two or fewer at home 11 times, and won none of those games. They've scored one run six times, but they've been shut out once.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly suggested in The Los Angeles Times Friday morning that the expanded and refurbished clubhouse at Dodger Stadium might influence how badly the Dodgers are performing at home. That's an intuition and we'll leave that with the Dodgers. What really pops the eye is the numbers for their offensive performers in the first inning, when they emerge from the clubhouse.

Put Dee Gordon in the road greys and he's a snappy player, batting .296 with a .355 on-base percentage. Even at home, he's .274 and .306. But in the first inning, Gordon remains overmatched, going .265 and .294. Gordon has the third most first-inning plate appearances for the Dodgers (51), all at the top of the lineup, and he has scored only five runs. One of those was a solo homer.

But the problem isn't merely that Gordon doesn't get on to create first-inning opportunities, for he can at least boast the third-best batting average for the inning of any Dodgers hitter (with at least 10 first-inning plate appearances). Most of the hitters down the order are even worse.

Hanley Ramirez is a .240 hitter with a .725 OPS in the first inning (58 plate appearances, most on the club.). Andre Ethier is three-for-26 (.188) with one walk, four strikeouts and two RBI in the first inning.

It's no secret that Matt Kemp isn't what he used to be, especially in the first inning. During his should-have-been-MVP season of 2011, he slashed .383/.445/.798/1.243 in the first inning. All of those were his highs for an inning, except for a .455 on-base percentage in the eighth. His first inning runs (23), homers (11) and RBI (36) were his highs for an inning. This year, his first inning is two-for-15 (.133) with no walks and three strikeouts. He has reached base twice, but also grounded into three double plays, so he has a negative output concerning base runners in the first inning.

Not to suggest a correlation, but Kemp's work against left-handed pitching has fallen off the same way. The Dodgers have been turned out by left-handers for at least three years, but Kemp once gave them one guy who could tear lefties apart so badly that they were going to score, anyway. In 2011, he split .341/.461/.682/1.142 against left-handers, with 11 homers and 32 RBI in 132 at-bats, 30 walks and 29 strikeouts.

In 2014 against left-handers, Kemp is .176/.211/.294/.505 with no homers and five RBI in 68 at-bats, three walks and 18 strikeouts. He is literally less than half the hitter he used to be against left-handers.

This year, the Dodgers are batting .213 with a .644 OPS against left-handers, each being better than only the Padres in the NL. Their batting average on balls in play (.260) is barely better than the Padres at a bottom-ranking .259.

But the Dodgers do two things reasonably well against left-handers, and they count: they walk and they can occasionally run into a left-hander and take him out of the park (16 homers). None of those are balls batted into play.

The homers make the Dodgers about average in the NL. The benefit is multiplied, however, because the Dodgers have walked 62 times against 606 plate appearances, the second-highest such proportion in the league against left-handers. So, they are seventh in runs against left-handers (66), though also third in plate appearances (682).

Most of their damage to left-handers comes from the right side, naturally, and especially from Scott Van Slyke, who has six homers in 44 at-bats and a 1.243 OPS against left-handers. As far as how the Dodgers' left-handed hitters do against left-handed pitching, Clayton Kershaw is about as good as any of them.

We got sidetracked just now and began looking at how badly the Dodgers handle left-handers as the discussion got into Kemp. This is supposed to be about how the Dodgers score fewer runs in the first inning than all but one other club in the National League. We don't suggest any kind of cause and effect between the two. We can't even imagine which would be the cause and which would be the effect. We know, also, that struggling against left-handers is a long-term trait of the Dodgers, while we suppose that the first-inning problem will work itself out in the long run of cases this season.

The numbers are too weird to believe right now. The Dodgers, as said before, are 15th in the NL with 25 runs in the first inning. But seven American League teams have scored fewer first-inning runs than the Dodgers, and two of them are the Boston Red Sox (24) and Detroit Tigers (23). Can we really expect it to end this way?

The Red Sox pounced on everyone at the start last year, but their first inning this year reeks of Dustin Pedrioa (.619 OPS in the first inning) and David Ortiz (.631). For the Tigers, Miguel Cabrera is relatively lacking luster with his first-inning OPS of .843, and Victor Martinez is less than that at .669. But along with that, Ian Kinsler (.514) and Torii Hunter (.483) are next to nothing in the first inning.

Allowing that Hunter may be finally showing his age at 39, it's hard to believe that all these elite players between the Dodgers, Red Sox and Tigers are going to continue stammering through the first inning. With about 100 games left in the season, it's early enough to believe that these hitters will work it out.

The Dodgers have a couple hitters somewhat delivering in the first inning. Adrian Gonzalez has a .286 batting average and an .897 OPS, while Yasiel Puig has a .298 batting average and .888 OPS. But neither of those are sky high, and they're not enough to paper over all the other weak first-inning performers.

It should be mentioned that the Dodgers have a ninth-inning problem, as well, and it is serious. They are second from the bottom across baseball in ninth-inning batting average (.174) and OPS (.508). The average team has scored 22.6 ninth-inning runs and the Dodgers have scored 15. They have no one hitting in the ninth. The most culpable by OPS are Gordon (.649), Carl Crawford (.481), Ethier (.478), Van Slyke (.465), Puig (.440), Gonzalez (.269) and Kemp (.241). It would seem that the Dodgers struggle against the top relievers.

The ninth inning and the first inning are different problems. The first inning is never a do-or-die situation, but it always counts and it is the best opportunity for arranging offensive talent to strike against a pitcher who hasn't gotten into his tool box. That's why the first inning is the highest scoring inning. The ninth inning may or may not be crucial. If some team gets well enough on top, it isn't.

The Dodgers are flat-lining at 35-33 this year, and one reason is that they can't get on top of a game at Dodger Stadium. They seldom score in the first inning at home and, even when they do, they've still lost two-thirds of the time.

The probability gremlins discourage a flat prediction that the Dodgers will ultimately reach their level in the first inning. But the Dodgers certainly are paying enough bats to do it. The hot streak we're waiting for could ride on it.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Second wild card starts race to the middle

Now that fifth best in some league is good enough to reach the playoffs, even the worse clubs know they're only one or two good players and a dozen good bounces from surviving to October. Thus the distance from the middle of the league to the bottom is shorter than ever.


Nathan Eovaldi, traded by the Dodgers to the Miami Marlins for Hanley Ramirez, now is helping the Marlins into the National League playoff race (Cbl62 at en.wikipedia/Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike Unported 3.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The two weeks between the quarter pole and the one-third mark changed the face of the baseball season, or at least brought it into focus.

The divisional races became much thinner, particularly after the first weekend in June, which ended with the first-place Oakland Athletics sweeping the second-place Angels in the American League West and the first-place Atlanta Braves sweeping the second-place Miami Marlins in the National League East.

The divisional races already were looking weak. Three weeks ago, though, the leads in two divisions were one-half game and the leads were within four games in three others. But as of June 2, every division leader had at least a three-game advantage.

Some of us are old coots who remember a day before divisions, and a year like this makes us half-relish those days. In the American League, we would have a smoking race right now between the Athletics, Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers, all within two games of the top. In that past world, nine clubs would be within 6 1/2 games of first place.

Then again, the National League would be a dreary snooze, with the San Francisco Giants three games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers, 5 1/2 ahead of the Braves and seven ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals.

So, we take what we have now, universal wild card races in which a scrum of mediocre teams is playing for something, which is better than playing for nothing, but not much better. It's one game in the playoffs. It's enough to give most clubs a feint whiff of a chance, but it's not enough to make fans of shadowy contenders forget that they hate their local ownership.

One hates to annoint the division leaders, but no one else is playing so well that it's clear how any of the present leaders would fall. The races in the NL East and AL West looked further apart than ever after Memorial Day. The Giants were 7 1/2 games ahead of the second-place Dodgers in the NL West. The Detroit Tigers are the dominant club in the AL Central and they stoll held a 4 1/2-game lead after losing 10 of their last 14.

The St. Louis Cardinals have enough pedigree to claim that they might make up their four-game deficit to the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, and the Toronto Blue Jays don't have enough pedigree to assume they will stay in the AL East lead, so there is that little bit of suspense at the top. But most of the puzzles are in the middle of each league, where the solutions don't stand to be gratifying.

On the morning of June 2, when every team had now played one-third (54) of its games or more, the two National League wild cards were the Dodgers and Cardinals, last year's contestants in the National League Championship Series. Under the present scenario, it would be a one-game playoff, which doesn't bode well for the Dodgers, the way the Cardinals have fared against Clayton Kershaw. The Cardinals beat Kershaw in all three of his starts against them last year.

The Cardinals were within a half-game of the Dodgers, the Marlins were within a half-game of the Cardinals, the Colorado Rockies were within a half-game of the Marlins, and the New York Mets and Washington Nationals were each within a half-game of the Rockies. The Mets and Nationals both were a game below .500. The only team in that group that was winning lately, the Mets, took seven of nine against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies, none of whom are in thick of this year's race to the middle.

The Pirates and Cincinnati Reds both were within 2 1/2 games of the second wild card, but that's a long distance considering the faltering states of their bullpens and the number of teams in between. The Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs were unable to make a move between the one-third mark and the quarter pole, so they remained at the bottom of the standings. It would appear they will be joined by the Phillies and San Diego Padres, who both lost traction in May while the Pirates and Reds gained traction.

The Angels lost traction in the AL west by losing three straight at Oakland, but they oddly remained in the first wild card because the fifth-place team, the New York Yankees, lost two of three at home against the Minnesota Twins. The rubber game had to hurt  Phil Hughes held the Yankees to two runs in eight innings of a 7-2 victory, raising his record to 6-1 and lowering his ERA to 3.12. Hughes did good work with the Yankees, but he botched his walk year in 2013 and fell to the Twins in free agency for three years at $24 million.

The Angels might have made a bid for Hughes, who went to high school in Santa Ana, but they're still holding the top wild card spot despite jitters in their pitching staff. If the Angels could straighten out their bullpen, they'd have a good game going, because they're top-half of the AL everywhere else except third base. The Angels have gotten nothing from their major off-season acquisitions  Hector Santiago, David Freese, Joe Smith, Fernando Salas, Raul Ibanez  except that Tyler Skaggs has been a solid fifth starter. Their combined WAR was minus-0.6. Yet, the Angels are a much better team.

The Yankees are spending $197 million on the most mediocre team that money can buy. It probably isn't true that you can just go out and buy a championship, but you can certainly go out and just buy a mediocre team, and that's enough for fifth place. The Yankees have attended wild-card playoffs more than any other club. They've only missed twice, and the first of those (2008), they would have been the second wild card. Last year was the first time the Yankees fell out, but they didn't fall out until September.

Last year might be counted as a freak occurence, though this season says different. The Yankees added breadth to the offense by letting go of Robinson Cano and signing three bats on the free-agent market, but everyone is scuffling except for Mark Teixeira Yangervis Solarte, the replacement at third base for Alex Rodriguez. The Yankees were only 11th in AL runs scored and the team was really living off a pitching staff ranked seventh in AL ERA (4.02).

Presumably, the Yankees were vulnerable at 29-27. Definitely, the Yankees are ordinary, which is fifth place. The Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers were only one-half game behind them, while the Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals all were within 2 1/2 games or less. That's your AL wild card division. The Twins and Tampa Bay Rays appear to have fallen out, and the Houston Astros have never been in.

But the Astros are showing long-awaited signs of progress and have become, quite out of nowhere, a very competitive team. Last year, the Astros were competitive with poor teams -- 33-35 against teams that finished below .500. But they didn't belong on the field against better clubs -- a deep-bottom 18-76 against clubs finishing .500 or better. The next worst AL club in that regard, the Twins, were 33-71.

Through two days of June, The Astros were 19-28 against clubs .500 or better, which isn't great, but it already exceeds last year's win total, and it does give them more wins against winners than any other club except the Giants (21-11). The Astros had faced the better clubs 47 times, more games than any other Major League club, with the Red Sox coming in next at 39 (18-21).

The Astros may yet climb the steep hill to mediocrity and make themselves playoff contenders among this bunch. Following their series this week against the Angels, the Astros embark on nine games against the most of badly faltering clubs out there  the Twins, the Diamondbacks and the Rays. After two at Washington, they go to St. Petersburg for four.  They won't face a contemporary powerhouse for two weeks. Last year, the Astros broke even against these clubs. If they can win nine or 10 of these 15, they'll pick up a couple of games on the fifth-place scrum and place themselves on the outer fringe of the race.

It is, after all, a race to the middle for that coveted position that tells the world you're fifth best. May the most mediocre team prevail.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

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