Bosox, Indians take early First Division lead

The Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians, two new First Division clubs, are the early leaders. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies went off to a fast start in the Third Division.

With Freddy Galvis (13) at shortstop, the Philadelphia Phillies won their first six games in the Third Division (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

We shouldn't too surprised by the early going in the First Division. The two new teams are on top.

It's only the first week of May, of course. But history says new promotions thrive in the First Division. And recent champions flounder.

The Cleveland Indians (3-0) and the Boston Red Sox (5-2), newly promoted, are the early leaders. The San Francisco Giants (4-3) are right behind after winning two of three this week from the Dodgers (3-4) in Los Angeles.

The Washington Nationals, the only team yet to debut in the First Division, play their first game within the tier on May 29 in San Francisco. That will begin a run of nine First Division games in two weeks for the Nats.

The Second Division still awaits participation from half of its clubs. The New York Yankees have the early lead, thanks to a three-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals. But the Cardinals will have plenty of chances to catch up because this level includes two other National League Central clubs, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

By contrast, the Third Division has seen heavy participation. The Philadelphia Phillies took the early lead, winning their first six games at this level before visiting Chicago and losing two games so far this week against the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs, of course, won the World Series last year, but they still couldn't escape the Third Division, despite a 26-13 showing at this level. As it happened, the Detroit Tigers (35-16) and the New York Mets (28-13), surpassed the Cubs for promotion with their over-whelming performances.

At the bottom of this group, the Seattle Mariners already have cause for concern, losing 10 of their first 15 games. 

In the Fourth Division, it's still very early. The team to watch is the Baltimore Orioles, who were knocked back into this group as a result of the 2014 playoffs and haven't been able to escape. 

Angels unique among expansion teams

Just going by the regular season histories, the Angels are the most successful expansion franchise in  Major League Baseball, being the only expansion franchise with a winning record through its entire life. The Angels went over. 500 in July 2014 and they have kept winning.

Gene Mauch won two division managing the Angels before their golden age of the 21st century (Topps baseball card. It is believed this low resolution, cropped and watermarked image of a poster to identify the subject of this story is fair use in the absence of a public domain image of the subject.).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

It's worthwhile to note a unique anniversary that passed last month for the Angels.

A year ago on July 10, the Angels became the first and only expansion team across the Major Leagues to achieve a winning record historically. The Angels went over the top for good (so far) with a 15-6 win against the Texas Rangers in Arlington that night, bringing their all-time record up to 4274-4273-3. Since then, the Angels are 99-71, bringing themselves up to 4,373-4,347 all-time entering games of August 1 (all numbers in this piece are from Baseball-reference.com).

Out of 30 Major League franchises, 13 are breaking even or better historically in regular season games. Of those 13, 12 are original "modern era" franchises, meaning they go back at least to the founding of the American League in 1901. 

Presumably, the traditional franchises would have winning records because they could fatten up on expansion teams through the years, but it hasn't always worked out that way, especially not in the American League, where three franchises lost so much before expansion that they still haven't caught up. They are the Baltimore Orioles (formerly the St. Louis Browns), the Minnesota Twins (formerly the Washington Senators) and the Oakland Athletics (formerly of Philadelphia and Kansas City), who could pretty reliably be counted upon to finish in the second division of the American League when it was said that the World Series wasn't official unless it included the New York Yankees.

The only pre-expansion National League team with an historical losing record is the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies also are more games under .500 (1,111) than any other pre-expansion team, followed by the Orioles (840), the Twins (698) and the Athletics (440). In the pre-expansion American League, one team won a lot (the Yankees) and three teams (the Senators, Athletics and Browns) lost quite a bit. In the pre-expansion National League, three teams won quite a bit (the Cardinals, Dodgers and Giants) and one franchise (the Phillies) lost a lot.

Behind the Angels, the next best expansion team relative to .500 is the Toronto Blue Jays, who are 59 games short of breaking even since their debut in 1977.

Two other teams in recent years have flirted with reaching .500 historically.

The Atlanta Braves succeeded, and they now are a robust 48 games over .500 in their 140-year history, which began in 1876 as the Boston Red Stockings of Harry Wright and George Wright. The Braves were so consistently terrible through their last 50 years in Boston that they didn't reach .500 until 2012. Think about this: The Braves won 14 straight division titles from 1991 through 2005, and that still wasn't enough to break them even.

The Houston Astros failed to become the first expansion team to reach .500 a couple of times in the last 10 years. A run of excellent Houston clubs from 1993 through 2006 brought the Astros within four games of .500 entering the 2007 season. But the Astros finished 73-89 in 2007, putting themselves 20 games under. An 86-75 effort for the Astros in 2008 brought them back within nine games of .500. But the Astros went 74-88 in 2009, and the losing has continued all the way up until this season. The Astros now are 205 games below .500 in their history.

Getting to .500 wasn't easy for the Angels, either. 

The Angels actually began their life with three winning seasons (and another year with 80 wins) in their first seven. But from 1968 until 2002, there wasn't a lot happening – just a couple decent clubs in the late 1970s and three good clubs in the late 1980s. 

The Angels were working from way behind going to 2002 – 234 games below .500 historically. So, they have moved fast, rolling up seven seasons with 90 or more wins in the last 14 complete seasons. Unquestionably, the 21st century has been a new era for the Angels, and it has been a good one.

The Angels entered the 2014 season 16 games below .500 historically, and their start, combined with their losing effort in 2013, gave little indication that much was to come. As of May 7, they were 16-17. They began then to win a little more than they lost, but they still were just 37-32 as of June 16. 

But the Angels then went on a huge roll, winning 21 of their next 26 games through July 18. They first reached .500 with a 5-2 win against the Toronto Blue Jays on July 7, bringing themselves up to 4,272-4,272-3 all-time. But they lost, 4-0, to the Jays the next night, dropping back below .500.

No problem, though, because the Angels were getting hot. An 8-7 win against the Jays on July 9 brought them back even, then the Angels went to Arlington and went over for good with their 15-6 win on July 10. 

The Angels still were 3½ games behind the Oakland Athletics in the American League West at that point and they wouldn't move into first place until Aug. 16. But they held first place once they took it and finished the regular season 98-64 before losing their only playoff series to the Kansas City Royals in a three-game sweep.

Dick Allen Award: Cardinals finally fall

The St. Louis Cardinals haven't started the 2015 season with the best run of title defenses in the history of the Dick Allen Award, but they came close. And the only other two times anyone did it better, it was the Cardinals. The Pittsburgh Pirates finally snagged the Allen from the Cardinals last weekend in Pittsburgh after heartbreak the weekend before in St. Louis.

Josh Harrison was batting only .200 for the Pittsburgh Pirates through May 14, but his hitting helped the Pirates hold the Dick Allen Award from the Philadelphia Phillies this week (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The St. Louis Cardinals finally lost the Dick Allen Award this week, giving it up to the club that probably deserved it more than any other.

The prize now belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who dropped the Cards two of three last weekend in Pittsburgh. A weekend earlier, the Cardinals prevailed over the Pirates in three consecutive extra-inning, one-run games. That series was quite a scene shifter. One can imagine how different the season would look if these games that could have gone the other way had done so.

But it was just how it is when the Cardinals hold the Dick Allen Award, especially early in the season. Once the Cardinals barely wrestled the prize from the Chicago Cubs in an opening week split, they defended it eight consecutive times, holding it for 29 games. The 29-game reign is the longest within a single season for the Allen Award, but this competition has a history of the Cardinals bridging seasons with their dominance.

For example, the Cardinals won the Allen Sept 6-8, 2013 and held it all the way through the National League Championship Series (NLCS), a run of 27 games. They held it, then, into the 2014 season, first beating the Cincinnati Reds, 2-1, for a title defense before losing two-of-three at Pittsburgh. Thus, the Cardinals held the Allen for 33 games over two seasons.

The Cardinals ran a bridge over the 2011 and 2012 seasons that was just as long. That time, the Cardinals won it during the final week of the 2011 regular season and held it through the NLCS, a running title defense of 14 games. Of course, the Cardinals carried the Allen into the 2012 season and immediately launched six more title defenses covering 19 games. Thus, the Cardinals held it, again, for 33 games, total.

Historically, the Cardinals now have held the Allen for 198 games since the competition began in 2011. Second on the list is the Atlanta Braves, who have held it for 69 games. All-time in games for the Allen, the Cardinals are 169-100, with 42 title defenses in 58 attempts.

Once the Pirates took the Allen from the Cardinals, they held it with a four-game split in Philadelphia. The Pirates won the first two and the Phillies took the second two, but the Pirates won the total runs tie-breaker, 15-12. The Pirates basically clinched it by winning the second game, 7-2, keyed by three RBI from Josh Harrison. The Pirates third baseman is struggling this year, batting .200, but he homered and stole a base in that game.

The Pirates are defending the Allen this weekend in Chicago against the Chicago Cubs.

2015 Dick Allen Award results 

Total run tiebreakers, if applicable, are given at the end of the results.

St. Louis 1, Chicago 1 — April 5-8 at Chicago (St. Louis wins total runs tiebreaker, 3-2).

St. Louis 2, Cincinnati 1 — April 10-12 at Cincinnati.

St. Louis 2, Milwaukee 1 — April 13-16 at St. Louis.

St. Louis 3, Cincinnati 0 — April 17-19 at St. Louis.

St. Louis 2, Washington 1 — April 21-23 at Washington.

St. Louis 2, Milwaukee 1 — April 24-26 at Milwaukee.

St. Louis 3, Philadelphia 1 — April 27-30 at St. Louis.

St. Louis 3, Pittsburgh 0 — May 1-3 at St. Louis.

St. Louis 3, Chicago 1 — May 4-7 at St. Louis.

Pittsburgh 2, St. Louis 1— May 8-10 at Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh 2, Philadelphia 2 — May 11-14 at Philadelphia (Pittsburgh, 15-12).

2013 Second Division standings and summary

The Angels shook off the disappointment of 2012, as well as a bad 2013 Major League season, to win promotion back to the First Division in 2014. Joining them will be the Washington Nationals. The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies, who each resisted demotion for years, now are headed to the Third Division in 2014.

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Angels barely missed promotion to the First Division for the 2013 season. But they earned that promotion with an excellent 2013 season in the Second Division, even though their Major League season went badly.

In the Second Division, the Angels played only 19 games, but they were 6-0 against the Detroit Tigers and 3-0 against the Milwaukee Brewers. They only broke even against the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox, but 14-5 is a .737 winning percengage, and they also finished a game ahead of the Washington Nationals.

The Nationals are being promoted for the second straight year, going to the First Division in 2014 after starting all of this in the Fourth Division in 2010.

During the regular Major League season, the Angels struggled to a 78-84 finish. It also wasn't such a great season for the Nationals, who were heavily favored to repeat as National League East champions and wound up finishing 10 games out of first place.

The Chicago Cubs began these standings back in 2010 with Second Division status and somehow floated there for four years, despite consistent losing records. This time, though, they couldn't escape. They came up last in the Second Division and are going to the Third Division in 2014.

And the Philadelphia Phillies, a First Division team from 2010 through 2012, now will be demoted for the second straight time, going to the Third Division in 2014.

2012 First Division standings and summary

The First Division in 2012 was two tight races, with the top four clubs in a squeeze for the championship and the bottom four in a squeeze to fight off relegation. The New York Yankees prevailed among the prosperous clubs, while the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies lost their bids to stay in the top tier.

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants finished tied on top of the First Division in the games behind column in 2012. But the Yankees (.564) had a better winning percentage than the Giants (.551), so the Yankees were declared the champions.

Not far behind, in either case, were the Dodgers and the Tampa Bay Rays. The Dodgers finished 1/2 game back with a .548 winning percentage, while the Rays were a game back and .538.

The Boston Red Sox began rebuilding their operation in 2012 and finished in last place to be relegated to the Second Division for 2013. The Philadelphia Phillies will be relegated the same after finishing a mere two percentage points worse than the St. Louis Cardinals, .457 for the Cardinals and .455 for the Phillies.

East League: Mets extend lead

The New York Mets lost two of three to the New York Yankees during the weekend, but they still doubled their lead in the East League during the week. They can thank their three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves, who lost five of six during the week. The Tampa Bay Rays had the best week in the league, moving up to second place.

Mark Teixeira had the most powerful week in the East League, crushing five homers and running a 1.429 OPS in six games (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

So, the New York Mets struggled against the New York Yankees during the weekend, losing two of three at Yankee Stadium.

But the Mets aren't struggling otherwise. They beat the Atlanta Braves three straight to start the week ending on April 26 and increased their lead in the East League from 1 1/2 games over the Braves to three games over the Tampa Bay Rays. Though the Yankees won their series against the Mets, they still lost one-half game because they were playing in Detroit while the Mets were sweeping the Braves.

And the Mets did rather beat themselves in the April 26 rubber game with the Yankees, making four errors that led to two unearned runs, the difference in a 6-4 Yankees victory. Two of the errors came after balls hit by Alex Rodriguez, both after Rodriguez had homered earlier in the game.

No team in the East had a better week than the Rays, who moved up from fifth place to second place after winning five straight through April 26. The Rays picked up a game on first place and now are three games down.

More dramatically, the Rays picked up huge in the South Division, coming from 2 1/2 games down to take the lead by one-half game. They can thank the Braves, who held the division lead a week ago, then lost three straight against the Mets and two of three against the Philadelphia Phillies, all on the road.

The Mets will go on the road at the start of this week against the Miami Marlins, who ended the week just completed with five straight wins against the Phillies and Washington Nationals. The Mets swept the Marlins in four at home earlier in April. After that, the Mets go home against the Nats, who have, so some surprise, distinguished themselves with their last-place occupancy in the East at this early date.

A series of some import at the start of the week will put the Yankees against the Rays at Yankee Stadium.

Games of April 20

at Boston 7, Baltimore 1.

Games of April 21

at Toronto 13, Baltimore 6.

at New York (NL) 7, Atlanta 1.

at Philadelphia 7, Miami 3.

at Boston 1, Tampa Bay 0.

Games of April 22

Miami 6, at Philadelphia 1.

at Toronto 4, Baltimore 2.

at New York (NL) 3, Atlanta 2.

at Tampa Bay 7, Boston 5.

Games of April 23

at Tampa Bay 2, Boston 1.

at Toronto 7, Boston 6.

at New York (NL) 6, Atlanta 3.

Miami 9, at Philadelphia 1.

Games of April 24

at Baltimore 7, Boston 5.

at New York (AL) 6, New York (NL) 1.

at Tampa Bay 12, Toronto 3.

at Miami 3, Washington 2.

at Philadelphia 1, Atlanta 0.

Games of April 25

Baltimore 5, Boston 4, 10 innings.

at New York (NL) 8, New York (AL) 2.

at Tampa Bay 4, Toronto 2.

at Miami 8, Washington 0.

Atlanta 5, Philadelphia 2.

Games of April 26

at Baltimore 18, Boston 7.

at Tampa Bay 5, Toronto 1.

at Miami 6, Washington 2.

at Philadelphia 5, Atlanta 4.

at New York (AL) 6, New York (NL) 4.

2010 First Division standings and summary

The Boston Red Sox didn't go to the Major League playoffs in 2010, but they won the First Division, thanks largely to a combined 12-1 record against the two Los Angeles teams. The Angels barely escaped relegation to the Second Division for 2011, but the Dodgers weren't so lucky.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The eight clubs that went to the 2009 Major League playoffs were assigned to the First Division for 2010. Three of them — the Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies — returned to the playoffs in 2010.

But it was the Boston Red Sox winning the 2010 First Divison by four games.

The Red Sox cleaned up on the Angels (9-1) and the Dodgers (3-0), then broke two games better than even against the rest of the First Division.

The Angels barely escaped relegation to the Second Division for 2011, but the Dodgers and Colorado Rockies did not. The Dodgers were 2-10 against American League teams in the First Division, sealing their demotion. The Rockies finished the Major League season 83-79, but they had losing seasons against every First Division team they played, except for their 2-1 mark against the Red Sox.

NL East: Two up, three down

The National League East almost certainly can't involve anyone other than the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals in 2013. Each has won it in the last two years, and no one else is even close to contending for even a wild card spot.

Cliff Lee, with a 7.3 WAR in 2013, was the most productive player in the National League East by that measure (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The National League East shapes up, by 2013 WAR, as a matter of two clubs, the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals. The Braves won it last year. This year, it figures to be the Nationals, especially after spring injuries to Atlanta pitchers Kris Medlen and Mike Minor.

By 2013 WAR, this is quite a close race, with Atlanta scoring 45.7 against 44.7 for the Nationals. The Braves actually beat the Nats by 10 games in 2013, but the gap has been closed somewhat with the Nats adding nearly 5.0 WAR to their pitching staff between the additions of Doug Fister and Jerry Blevins, while the Braves lost catcher Brian McCann.

The other three clubs look weak here, though the Miami Marlins have a chance to come up fastest after young pitching made a good showing in 2013.

Following is a list of each team in the division, giving each club's "top half" position players by 2013 WAR, its "second-level" position players, its top-level pitchers and second-level pitchers. For the top-half position players, we give the player's position and where he ranked at the position across big league baseball in 2013 WAR, then the actual WAR value for the player. For every other category, we give the player's overall 2013 WAR ranking, understanding that pitchers and position players are ranked separately.

More about all of this, including some important clarifications, can be found here. Bear in mind, though, that the 2013 WAR totals for each club only include these top players, and every club will have players with little, no or negative WAR value that actually would drag down its totals.

Atlanta Braves (45.7 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 1B: Freddie Freeman 5, 5.5; SS: Andrelton Simmons, 1, 6.7; RF; Jason Heyward, 9, 3.6; LF: Justin Upton, 11, 2.6. Totals: four players 18.4 WAR.

Second-level position players — Chris Johnson, 144, 2.0; Ramiro Pena, 208, 1.0. Jordan Schafer, 213, 0.9. Totals: three players, 3.9 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Craig Kimbrel, 37, 3.3; Kris Medlen, 39, 3.3; Julio Teheran, 41, 3.2; Mike Minor, 45, 3.1; Ervin Santana, 52, 2.9; Luis Avilan, 72, 2.4; David Carpenter, 90, 2.1. Totals: seven pitchers, 20.3 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Alex Wood, 177, 1.1; Anthony Varvaro, 202, 0.8; David Hale, 222, 0.7; Freddy Garcia, 234, 0.6. Totals: four pitchers, 3.2 WAR.

The most striking reading on the Braves is four starting pitchers in that 31-60 range by 2013 WAR -- Medlen, Teheran, Minor and Santana — meaning four No. 2 starters. Their fifth-best starter, Avilan, is a No. 3 by these criteria. Thus, the Braves figure to win the pitching match-up in most games they play, even though this group doesn't include a clear No. 1. And they'll finish games better than anyone else in the National League with Kimbrel.

The shortstop, Simmons, is the best across the game by 2013 WAR. Despite winning the NL batting title in 2013, Johnson finished 20th among big league third basemen by 2013 WAR, meaning the Braves still could use an upgrade. With McCann gone, the Braves still have a plus catcher in Pena.

Washington Nationals (44.7 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — SS: Ian Desmond, 6, 3.7; 3B: Ryan Zimmerman, 10, 3.8; RF; Jayson Werth, 5, 4.8; LF: Bryce Harper, 5, 3.8; C: Wilson Ramos, 11, 2.4. Totals: Five players, 18.5 WAR.

Second-level position players — Denard Span, 110, 2.4;  Nate McLouth, 161, 1.6; Adam LaRoche, 217, 0.9. Totals: three player. Totals: Three players, 4.9 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Doug Fister, 21, 4.1; Jordan Zimmerman, 28, 3.7; Stephen Strasburg, 45, 3.1; Gio Gonzalez, 49, 3.0; Tanner Roark, 91, 2.0; Tyler Clippard, 105, 1.8. Totals: Six pitchers, 17.7 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Craig Stammen, 183, 1.0; Ross Ohlendorf, 188, 0.9; Rafael Soriano, 195, 0.9; Jerry Blevins,  204, 0.8; (4, 3.6)

The only club around here (or anywhere) for starting pitchers that looks better than the Braves is Washington, with Fister and Zimmermann in the top 30, then Strasburg and Gonzalez in the next 30. That's to say the Nats have two No. 1s and two No. 2s. And Roark, the fifth best starter on this club, comes in as a No. 3 by 2013 WAR. Add to all that five relievers who hit the top 240, and this team figures to pitch.

The Nationals could have done with a little more star turning by Harper, Zimmerman and Werth. That, and the discovery of a second baseman, would give this club a complete lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies (29.6 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — RF: Marlon Byrd, 4, 5.0; LF: Domonic Brown, 12, 2.5; (2, 7.5)

Second-level position players — Carlos Ruiz, 155, 1.7; Ben Revere, 227, 0.8; (2, 2.5)

Top-level pitchers — Cliff Lee, 2, 7.3; Cole Hamels, 16, 4.6; A.J. Burnett, 111, 1.7; (3, 13.6)

Second-level pitchers — Jonathan Papelbon, 125, 1.5; Jonathan Pettibone, 126, 1.5; Chad Gaudin 149, 1.3; Kyle Kendrick, 182, 1.0; Jake Diekman, 222, 0.7; (5, 6.0)

Look how little offense we can find on a club that includes Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. None of these old horses even made these rankings at any level. The Phillies had to sign free-agent Marlon Byrd just to reach two players into the top half in their positions.

Some pretty good pitching here between Lee and Hamels. The Phils have famously had trouble getting leads up to Papelbon as the closer.

Miami Marlins (26.7 in 2013 WAR) 

Top-half position players — RF: Giancarlo Stanton, 14, 2.4; C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 10, 2.9. Totals: Two players, 5.3 WAR.

Second-level position players — Ed Lucas, 168, 1.5; Christian Yelich, 176, 1.4; Jeff Baker, 235, 0.7. Totals: Three players, 3.6 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Jose Fernandez, 6, 6.3; Nathan Eovaldi, 80, 2.2; Steve Cishek, 83, 2.1; Henderson Alvarez, 100, 1.9; Mike Dunn, 117, 1.6. Totals: Five pitchers, 14.1 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Jacob Turner, 134, 1.4; A.J. Ramos, 197, 0.9; Tom Koehler, 203, 0.8; Kevin Slowey, 234, 0.6. Totals: Four pitchers, 3.7 WAR.

The framework for this club is the young starting pitchers, particularly Fernandez, Eovaldi, Turner and Koehler. Lots to like. And though Stanton ranked only 14th among big league right fielders by 2013 WAR, everyone knows he's real.

This is a club that tore down last season and started all over. Indeed, the Marlins had to go beyond starting over. The club made a move in the right direction in 2012, moving to its rightful home in the Little Havana section of Miami and changing its official location to "Miami," before the manager, Ozzie Guillen, made his bone-headed declaration of love for Fidel Castro. Then, a cast of veteran players tanked. No slack here for Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria, but there's also no reason to spend a bundle and finish in last place. It's more fun watching a young club try to improve.

New York Mets (24.5 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 3B: David Wright, 5, 5.9; CF: Juan Lagares, 10, 3.7. Totals: Two players, 9.6 WAR.

Second-level position players — Daniel Murphy, 150, 1.8; Josh Satin, 194, 1.2; Curtis Granderson,195, 1.1. Totals: Three players, 4.1 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Bartolo Colon, 14, 5.1; Dillon Gee, 78, 2.2. Totals: Two pitchers, 7.3 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Zack Wheeler, 170, 1.2; Carlos Torres, 197, 0.9; Bobby Parnell, 211, 0.7; Jonathon Niese, 220, 0.7. Totals: Four pitchers, 3.5 WAR.

They say it's worse in New York to be irrelevant than the be terrible. The Mets are both. They made a little bit of an effort to improve with the free-agent additions of Colon and Granderson. But it won't be nearly enough.

We didn't include pitcher Matt Harvey here because he is out all season with injury, but he would have added 5.2 WAR to the pitching staff. He and Colon would have given the Mets a front two in the rotation to rival anyone outside the Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners. David Wright is a great player. Not much else to say here.

Puig needs to cool it, or he'll cool down the Dodgers

Yasiel Puig, 22, is a wonder for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have become powerful contenders through his energetic style of play. As the competition becomes more serious, though, it becomes a question of whether his erratic style of play will derail the Dodgers' championship bid.

Yasiel Puig is hitting .352 for the Los Angeles Dodgers and winning games dramatically. But some of his dramas are potentially damaging (Ron Reiring/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The saga of Yasiel Puig brings up a lot of the old dualities concerning the relationship between genius and reality.

Of course, "genius" isn't typically the word to describe dominance on the baseball field, and anyone who finds himself constantly groaning about Puig's reckless throws and base running misadventures will agree that genius is no part of his game. Nor is Puig's expression of the game especially original. It's just endlessly dramatic, perpetually thrilling and consistently inspiring. Maddening, too. But we'll take it.

By now, everyone knows that Puig showed up at Marlins Park in Miami Tuesday 35 minutes before stretching, a little bit after the second bus arrived from the hotel. Traditionally, players who don't take either of the buses from the hotel, whether because they have other transport or because they stay at other locations, are required to be at the yard before the second bus arrives. Puig has a home in Miami and reportedly was caught in traffic. As Dodgers manager Don Mattingly told reporters, it happens.

So, Mattingly fined Puig the usual nominal amount, which is usually about $500, and benched the young star, which he was going to do, anyway. Puig was on an zero-for-11 and hadn't taken a day off since Aug. 4. Of course, his tardy appearance was huge news.

So, then, was his at-bat in the eighth inning, when he homered off the bench against the Miami Marlins to break a 4-4 tie and trigger a 6-4 Dodgers victory.

Moments like that are the upside with Puig, who was batting .352 with a .979 OPS. Puig was batting .353 against left-handers and .351 against right-handers with 12 homers in 261 at-bats -- seven of his homers coming in the sixth inning or later.

But it's only because Puig has such a flair for the dramatic that the Dodgers, or any other team, would put up with his warts, which include a tendency to show up veteran teammates on the field, throwing to the wrong base so he can show off his arm and running into outs as he attempts to show off his speed. Which is to say nothing of his harrowing confrontations with umpires.

Puig is untamed, flouting the conventions of the game, only to make the game his own in the end. Of course, that works against teams like the Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins, who have been losing all year long. In the playoffs, though, when all the teams you play are good, weaknesses not only are exposed, but they are exploited. When the playoffs come around, the Dodgers will lose a lot more from Puig's vices than they will gain from his virtues. The game is based in failure, and the fear remains that Puig will bring more failure on himself than he or his team can overcome.

Thus, the pundits have offered us two schools of thought about Yasiel Puig. One, which might be represented by MLB.com's Richard Justice, says leave the kid alone and let him be himself. Perhaps it is because of Puig's exuberance that the Dodgers have done as well as they have (50-20) since he came to the big leagues. The other, which might be represented by Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times, says the Dodgers need to harness Puig and get him under control before he kills them in the postseason.

The inclination here is to agree with Plaschke. Puig will never reach his potential, nor will the Dodgers reach theirs, so long as they can't bring his game under control. In particular, these confrontations with umpires really need to stop. If he starts going badly, then calls start going against him, and if he's still missing cut-off men and running into outs, he's not going to be a very good player, at all.

The Dodgers do need Matt Kemp back, but not to remove Puig from the lineup. Indeed, as recent outings against David Price, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels have reminded us, a good left-handed starting pitcher is the best antidote to the Dodgers. The Dodgers will need Puig and Kemp in the lineup simultaneously to handle left-handed pitching.

But if Puig doesn't learn, or isn't taught, how to handle his emotions and harness his game, there's a real good chance that it won't end well. For all the promise and excitement that Puig has brought to the Dodgers with his upside, his downside can still keep them from realizing that promise and excitement in their fullest manifestations.

Inside the numbers of the Dodgers' 40-8 surge

Breaking down the Dodgers' last 48 games, of which they have won 40, it seems as if there is no kind of a game or circumstance in which the Dodgers are likely to lose. The Dodgers are defying every tried and true indicator out there. No matter who scores first, the Dodgers are likely to win. No matter who hits the most, the Dodgers are likely to win. No matter how little the Dodgers score, they're likely to win.

These days, the Dodgers are winning games that teams just don't win (public domain image).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Let's just say something unpleasant right off the top: The Dodgers aren't really this good. No team is really this good.

The Dodgers have won 40 of their last 48 games, the first time any team has done that at any point in any season in 71 years. This is historic stuff we're seeing out there, night after night. With wins in their next two games -- and their scheduled pitchers are Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw -- the Dodgers would become only the fifth team ever to win 42 of 50 games. During this run, the Dodgers are 12-2 against clubs that are positioned, right now, to be in the playoffs.

Much virtual ink has been spilled on explanations for how this team has become so formidable so quickly. Remember, if you will, that the Dodgers were 73-89 in their last year's worth of games when they started play on June 22, the day they began this historic surge. The team included most of these same players for most of that time. They gave no indication of being able to win. There were injuries, of course, but there also have been injuries since. They've done almost all of this without Matt Kemp, after all.

Anyway, the ink that has been spilled, virtual and otherwise, is for naught, because the explanation for what has changed with the Dodgers is simple.

Everything. There’s simply no point in trying to isolate causes or reasons, because everything is going absolutely right for the Dodgers like we’ve never seen it go right for anybody.

There is no aspect of the game at which the Dodgers aren't dramatically improved and playing very well. And they're lucky. Just say it. The Dodgers are lucky. Carlos Marmol pitched two shutout innings for them in their 5-4, 12-inning win against the New York Mets Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium. The Chicago Cubs couldn't wait to get rid of Marmol, and now he's notching big outs for the hottest team in the game.

Attempting to quantify this remarkable run by the Dodgers, we shall extrapolate from a section of records commonly found in the game notes provided to the media by each team before every game. This stuff is wild.

For example, before June 22, the Dodgers were 21-17 in games during which they scored first. Not very good. Year by year, the team that scores first wins about 65 percent of the time. From June 22, though, the Dodgers are 28-0 when they score first. That's an awful lot better than 65 percent. When the opponent scores first, the Dodgers were 9-25 through June 21. Since then, they are 12-8, which is just a couple ticks worse than teams have generally done through the years when they score first.

Through June 21, the Dodgers were 23-7 when they led after six innings. Since then, they are 28-0. Through June 21, the Dodgers were 25-4 when they led after seven innings. Since then, they are 28-0. Through June 21, the Dodgers were 28-2 when they led after eight innings. Since then, they are 30-0. When the opponent led through six, the Dodgers were 0-26 through June 21. Since then, they are 5-8. When the Dodgers trailed through seven, the Dodgers were 0-29 before the surge and they're 4-8 since. When the Dodgers trailed through eight, they were 0-33 and they're 4-8 since. Notice that those eight losses in each case are the only eight losses, so no one has come back on them.

When games were tied after seven, the Dodgers were 5-8 through June 21, and they were 2-6 when they were tied after eight. Since then, the Dodgers are 8-1 and 6-1 under those circumstances. Before June 22, they were 3-4 in extra innings. Since, they are 4-0. The Dodgers had 11 comeback wins through June 21, and they have 15 since. In games decided in the final at-bat, the Dodgers were 1-5. Since June 21, they are 4-0. In one-run games, the Dodgers were 7-12 through June 21. Since then, they are 12-0.

Winning every time they score first, winning 60 percent of the time when the other team scores first, winning one-third of the time when they trail after seven innings, the Dodgers are winning games that teams just don't win. And there are many more such examples.

Presumably, the team with the most hits will win most of the time. That certainly was true in Dodgers games before June 22. The Dodgers were 22-10 when they had more hits than the opponent and 6-25 when they had fewer hits. From that point though, it doesn't matter who gets the most hits, because the Dodgers are likely to win. Starting with June 22, the Dodgers are 29-2 when they have the most hits, and a pretty snappy 10-5 when the other team has more hits. Somehow, the Dodgers were only 16-15 when they had 10 or more hits through June 21. Since then, they are 25-1 when they collect at least 10 hits.

Other measures give us an even sharper sense of how much better the Dodgers are playing. For example, through June 21, they were 17-18 when they didn't make an error. So, not only did they tend to squander errorless fielding, but they were errorless in fewer than half of their games. Since June 21, they are 24-4 when they make no errors, so they are errorless 58.33 percent of the time and they win almost all of them.

Through June 21, the Dodgers were 22-20 when they homered and 7-4 when they homered twice or more. Since then, the Dodgers are 24-2 when they homer and 11-1 when they homer more than once. Through June 21, by the way, the Dodgers batted around twice all year. Since then, they have batted around five times.

Remember how the Dodgers used to squander quality starts? Through June 21, the Dodgers were 21-16 when their guy went six or more innings and allowed three or fewer runs. Thus, only 29.2 percent of their games were quality start victories. Since then, the Dodgers are 26-3 when they get a quality start, so in 54.2 percent of their games the Dodgers received a quality start and won.

Decades of reading media game notes have made one truism clear, especially in the National League. The tipping point between winning and losing is scoring four runs as opposed to scoring three. Just as surely as the sun rises every day, team after team after team will have a winning record when it scores four or more, and a losing record when it scores three or less. Even an excellent team is in a jittery position when it scores three runs. Consider the Atlanta Braves, who have the National League's best record at 74-47. The Braves are second in league ERA at 3.20 and second in league scoring at 4.50 runs per game. But when the Braves score three runs or fewer, they are 15-38, and when they score exactly three, they're 8-10. When they score four or more, they're 58-9.

It would be helpful to see some good numbers on the matter, but when the league ERA is around 4.00, it would seem that four runs is where most games will tip. Consider the Houston Astros, who are 39-81. They can't even win one-third of their games. But when the Astros score four or more, they're 28-28. When they score three or fewer, they're 11-53.

You get the idea. The team that scores four or more has an excellent chance of winning. Even the Astros break even when they score four or more. And the team that scores three or fewer probably will lose. Even the Braves lose when they score three or fewer.

Now dig. Through June 21, the Dodgers were 11-33 when they scored three or fewer. And they were 19-9 when the scored four or more. They also were 24-9 when they allowed three or fewer and 6-33 when they allowed four or more. Since June 21, not surprisingly (and not even remarkably, considering some of the other numbers we've seen), the Dodgers are 29-1 when they score four or more and 29-3 when they allow three or fewer. But they're also 16-7 when they score three or fewer 10-5 when they allow four or more.

Those last two numbers are the most stunning of all. You just don't see teams win, let alone win two-thirds of the time, when they score three runs or fewer, or when they allow four runs or more. Call it magic, call it history, call it luck, call it damned good baseball, call it anything. But know this. It won't last. It's can't. That's nothing against the Dodgers. No team is this good.

Nationals shape up as new NL East dynasty

The National League East has been a division of local dynasties. The Atlanta Braves won it for 11 straight years. Then the Philadelphia Phillies won it five straight times. Time for a new dynasty. The Washington Nationals.

Bryce Harper is up for the Washington Nationals for the whole season in 2013. He will be good for a very long time. So, one supposes, will the Nationals (MissChatter/Creative Commons).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Atlanta Braves won the National League East every year from 1995 through 2005, rebooted and returned in 2010 with a consistently strong team. But not strong enough to win the division again.

The Philadelphia Phillies were primed to become the division's next kingpin, but that didn't happen right away. The New York Mets combined young stars David Wright and Jose Reyes with Carlos Delgado's last good year and Carlos Beltran's best year to win the division in 2006, when they were easily the National League's best team. 

The Mets were going to win the NL East again in 2007. They held a seven-game lead through Sept. 12. But the Phillies went to Shea Stadium and swept three from the Mets, cutting the difference to 3 1/2 games and starting up a race. Turns out, the Mets lost 12 of their last 17 and the Phillies won 13 of their last 17 to sneak past the Mets by a game. By then, the Phillies had a core of Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Cole Hamels in place. Aided by astute pitching additions such as Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, the Phillies would win the division five straight times, adding on six playoff series victories, two NL pennants and a World Championship.

Along, then, came 2012, which began with Howard and Utley on the disabled list. The Phillies couldn't cover and went to the All-Star break with a 37-50 record, losing 12 of their last 15 and falling to 14 games out of first place. Ryan and Utley were back in the lineup for the second half and the Phillies were their old selves, 44-31 after the All-Star break as they rallied to the fringe of the wild card race. 

By then, though, the division was changed, maybe for a very long time.

A young group of talent with the Washington Nationals leaped forward, managed by the great Davey Johnson. From 69 wins in 2010 to 80 wins in 2011, the Nationals already were 49-34 at the 2012 All-Star break, and they just never let go, even though the Braves stayed right with them and the Phillies began winning consistently.

Now, 2013 is coming, and it's just impossible to predict that anyone but Washington will win this division. The Nationals are even better now than at the start of last year. Bryce Harper is up this time for the whole season. Kurt Suzuki, who substantially upgraded their catching after a mid-season trade, is around for the whole year. Jayson Werth is back after missing half of last season with a wrist injury. The Nationals traded for a good center fielder, Denard Span. They signed a good free agent, Rafael Soriano, as their new closer. Stephen Strasburg will not be limited to 160 innings.

And all of that will be added to an impressive core of young, established talent. Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Ross Detwiler, Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen and Drew Storen all will be between 25 and 29 years old in 2013. The Nats also brought back free agent Adam LaRoche, the next guy down from Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto among National League first basemen.

The only way to ruin this team is at the negotiating table, and that's not coming around for another nine months. So, make way for the Nationals. A lot of people believe the Braves will make trouble for them. We don't. Sometimes, we think the Phillies might have one last campaign, and that if they can go to it with all their guys for the whole year, they might teach these kids lesson. But the news coming from spring training said Halladay is out of velocity and command, and Lee didn't get people out, and that staff full of aces might be down to Cole Hamels.

Of all the clubs across the National League, the Nationals are the easiest to pencil in as a division winner. Last year, the Nats were among the best offensive clubs in the National League. This year, they might be the best, certainly the best in the NL East. Their pitching staff -- starting rotation and bullpen -- is right there on top of the NL with Cincinnati, if not a little ahead. Defensively, they are plus up the middle with Suzuki, Espinosa, Desmond and Span, and all of those guys can kick in offensively. Balls hit to the left side will have to deal with Zimmerman and Harper. Almost the entire team is younger than 30, but the Nats also have key veterans like LaRoche, Werth and Dan Haren who have, between them, been on nine postseason teams outside of Washington. And they have the best manager going.

Johnson is 70 years old, he has 16 years of managing in the big leagues, and he has finished first six times and second seven times. It says volumes about what has happened in baseball management that Johnson didn't work for ten years, from 2001 through 2010, because Johnson isn't the kind of guy who's sitting behind his desk in his underwear at one in the afternoon waiting for the general manager to come down and dictate the lineup. But he knows better than anyone what to do when the light goes on. So, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo took a lot of heat last year for sitting Strasburg after 160 innings, but if he's willing and able to work with Johnson, then he's got something going that a lot of other GMs in the game don't.

Only one little chink in this armor presents itself, and it is the kind of thing that can hurt. There are times in life when you need to get a left-handed hitter out in the sixth or seventh inning to keep the game under control, and the Nats don't have an obvious left-handed reliever for the job. Their two good lefties from last year's bullpen, Mike Gonzalez and Tom Gorzelanny, both signed as free agents with Milwaukee. Veteran lefty Zach Duke made the Nats as a reliever, but he is a four-pitch guy without a magic bullet and he has been slapped around by left-handed hitters for a .748 OPS in his career entering 2013. 

Maybe it won't matter. Maybe Washington's starters will go seven innings every day. Maybe the Nationals will score so much that they can take a punch in the sixth or seventh inning. When you scan this club looking for flaws, all that emerges is this one little, common situation, but games turn on this situation. Chances are, the Nats will whistle past it. Although the Nats will not sneak up on people this year, taking them down is going to be a big job.

Our favorite candidate is the Phillies, assuming, for the purposes of forecast, that Halladay will not be great and that Lee is just working on pitches this spring. Along with bringing Howard and Utley back for the whole season, the Phillies made some nice upgrades.

Domonic Brown finally happened this spring, and he profiles as a fast, powerful right fielder along the lines of Atlanta's Jason Heyward and Miami's Giancarlo Stanton. The Texas Rangers made a big mistake in trading away Michael Young, and Philadelphia is the beneficiary. In his best days, Young was a 200-hit machine and, more recently, he excelled in a super-utility role to help the Rangers win two pennants. He's 35 now and he was down last year, but he's playing for another contract and the Phillies are giving him third base. Expect a productive season from him.

The Phillies paid Jonathan Papelbon $11 million last year to be their closer, then kept losing leads before they could give him the ball. During the winter, they signed Mike Adams, who is about as good as it gets for an eighth-inning reliever. And Phillippe Aumont is ready to make a contribution. Seattle took Aumont No. 11 overall in the 2007 draft, then shipped him to the Phillies in exchange for Lee in 2009. The Phillies moved Aumont to the bullpen, he started getting people out, and now appears to be the time for the 6-foot-7 right hander. 

Progressing year by year, the Braves reached the playoffs in 2012 as a strong first wild card with 94 wins. But they made some changes and they're licking some wounds. They might have too many holes for a return to the playoffs.

Catcher Brian McCann, a key piece of this team, is entering his age 29 season off shoulder surgery. He hasn't played all spring and, even if he does return before the end of April, his throwing arm will be an issue. Zapping out base stealers has never been a strong part of his game -- 24 percent against a league average of 27 percent during his career. Chipper Jones, now retired, was still producing last year and the Braves don't have an obvious replacement, though the spring numbers suggest that a platoon of Chris Johnson from the right and Juan Francisco from the left might work. Second baseman Dan Uggla suffered a big offensive decline in 2012 and he is entering his age 33 season. And Brandon Beachy, who led the NL with a 2.00 ERA when he went under the knife last year, still is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The starting rotation is questionable. Tim Hudson is 37, and he's always been pretty good, but it's pretty easy to name eight or nine guys who you would rather have as a No. 1 starter. Kris Medlen went 10-1 as a midseason call-up last year, but it's not established that he can maintain for a whole season. Lefty Paul Maholm is 31 with two straight solid seasons behind him (3.66 ERA, 351 innings combined). The Braves will hope for more of the same and better yet from 25-year-old lefty Mike Minor. Julio Teheran, 22, is thoroughly unproven. The Braves do have three very solid performers for their bullpen in Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty.

The Braves made headlines by bringing in the two Upton brothers, Bossman Junior and Justin, but it's not obvious that the Uptons are upgrades, for they replace two dynamic players in Martin Prado and Michael Bourn. Prado, in particular, is one of the game's unsung heroes, a .300 hitter and .800 OPS performer at five positions with presence of mind and flair for the dramatic. He doesn't show up in the baseball columns, but he definitely shows up in the games. The Braves might miss him more than they know, but they're still powerful contenders in a three-team race with Washington and Philadelphia.

The top three will feast on a dreary bottom two, the New York Mets and Miami Marlins, both of which are scandalized by their own ownership.

The National League, in recent years, has suffered from the travails of its three big city teams -- the Mets, the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers appear to have solved their problems with new ownership, the Cubs have, perhaps, intensified their problems with new ownership, and the Mets are muddling along with the same ownership. Mired in debt and entangled in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme for the last several years, Mets owner Fred Wilpon appears no closer to building a contender. The Mets have some guys who might someday be somebody, but right now they've got nobody except for third baseman David Wright.

We're not as hard on Miami owner Jeffrey Loria as a lot of commentators are, but we're not as easy on him as Bud Selig, either. Loria is under a lot of heat for unloading several established players from his 2012 club, never mind that the Marlins' $118 million outfit was a last place team in 2012. If you're going to finish last, you might as well spend only $35 million, which the Marlins are paying this year. Either way, Loria's sell-off doesn't approach the most outrageous sell-off in Marlins history, which would have been Wayne Huizenga's fire sale right after the Marlins won the 1997 World Series.

That certainly wasn't the only Marlins folly under Huizenga. Putting the team in Fort Lauderdale for all those years was even worse. This franchise needed to be in Miami all along, but Huizenga is a Fort Lauderdale guy, so that's how it went. The more rabid South Florida baseball fans are in Miami, particularly the Cuban community. The Marlins might never sign a big time Cuban defector because of it. The pressure would be too great. But the Marlins stand to work up a solid base of fans there. 

So, all was looking great for the Marlins going to 2012 as they were set to open Marlins Park in the Little Havana section of Miami and Loria ponied up with a $118 million payroll.

Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox were hoping to unload manager Ozzie Guillen before his mouth damaged the franchise, and Loria was glad to take him -- just in time for Guillen's mouth to damage the Marlins. Proclaiming, "I love Fidel Castro," just as the Marlins were about to open a new stadium in Little Havana might have been the most tone-deaf remark of 2012, at least right with any number of statements made during the election season. The season just had to fail. A Miami baseball team with a manager saying he loves Fidel Castro is a public relations disaster even if the team does win.

So, the Marlins are starting over, and they might as well. Guillen is gone, and so are key players from last season's belly-up ball club. Loria still is there, which isn't great news. But it's a new season, and that's always great news.