Showing posts with label Adrian Gonzalez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adrian Gonzalez. Show all posts

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Dodgers win wild West League in 2015

The Dodgers rallied through the final two months of the 2015 West League season, while the Houston Astros faltered on the road. Thus, the Dodgers overtook the Astros to claim the West League championship.


Adrian Gonzalez led the Dodgers' batting order through a championship campaign during the 2015 West League season (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

The Dodgers looked finished in the West League after the Houston Astros swept them three Aug. 21-23 in Houston, starting with a no-hitter for Houston hurler Mike Fiers in the Friday night opener.

After that series, the Astros were 42-26, four games up on the Dodgers, who wallowed at 37-29 second place. 

But the road took a toll on the Astros in the final month, as two three-city trips through the circuit yielded combined results of 4-15. 

The better seasoned Dodgers campaigned on their big road trip, a Sept. 3-13 three-city swing through San Diego, Anaheim and Arizona that went 7-3, one loss in each location.

By the time the Astros took a 2-8 beating going through Oakland, Anaheim and Arlington, TX, Sept. 7-17, the Dodgers were in command.

The Dodgers went to the final week of the season with a two-game lead on the Astros and a three-game lead on the Angels and San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers then split four in San Francisco before sweeping three at home against the San Diego Padres to secure a 5-2 week, which no one else surpassed and only the Astros matched.

Ending the regular season, the Dodgers remained two up on the Astros. The Dodgers, Astros and Rangers remained alive in the Major League playoffs. Though the Rangers won the American League West at 88-74, two games ahead of the Astros and three ahead of the Angels, they were also-rans in the West League.

The Rangers finished 47-49 in the West League, sixth out of 10 clubs. So, the Rangers didn't hold up very well against their regional competition, but they were 41-25 outside the West League. The Astros were 32-34 outside the West League. The Dodgers were 36-30 outside the league

As the playoffs began, the possibility existed that the Astros and Rangers could meet again for the World Series berth, also giving the Astros one last run at the Dodgers in the West League. But the Astros couldn't get past the Kansas City Royals and the Rangers couldn't get past the Toronto Blue Jays.

Thus. the Dodgers prevailed in the first year of playing out the West League, which will next play out when the interleague divisions align for it in 2018. Meanwhile, it has been decided here to track a different disalignment in the next two seasons, based on whether clubs are original or expansion franchises. If we applied it to the 2015 season, the results are quite surprising.

With their league win, the Dodgers also claim the title in the league's South Division. In the North Division, the Giants prevailed by one game over the Arizona Diamondbacks.


Wednesday, May 13, 2015

West League: Dodgers, Astros expand cushion

The Dodgers and Houston Astros now are running well ahead of the West League after a spectacular two weeks for both clubs. But the Astros were slowed down last week by the Texas Rangers, while the Dodgers haven't been slowed down by anybody.


Scott Van Slyke is one of several utility players for the Dodgers who are hitting with authority (TonyTheTiger/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

It was anticipated that the Dodgers would at least strongly contend for the West League championship. That expectation was not attached to the Houston Astros.

Right now, though, those are the two teams on top of the league, and they are more on top of the league now than they were two weeks ago. Through April 26, the Astros held a one-half game lead over the Dodgers, but four other clubs were within four games of the league lead. Now, the Dodgers lead the Astros by one game and no one else is less than four games out of the league lead.

The Astros don't seem to have a lot, but everything was going just right. They had a 10-game winning streak in the West League (and overall) from April 24-May 3, winning five of those by one run. The club that finally slowed them down was the Texas Rangers, who swept them three straight last week in Houston.

The Dodgers don't have everything going just right. How can we say everything is going just right when they have Yasiel Puig, Kenley Jansen, Carl Crawford and Hyun-jin Ryu on the disabled list?

But the Dodgers have four or five guys right now who are hitting everything coming their way. Adrian Gonzalez (1.152 OPS) and Joc Pederson (1.043) are leading the charge. But Justin Turner (1.032) and Alex Guerrero (1.155) both have been fantastic and productive in their utility roles. Andre Ethier, something of a forgotten man at the start of the year, is running a .943 OPS. And Scott Van Slyke, who has always damaged left-handers, now is doing it to right-handers, against whom he has a 1.035 OPS and two homers in 36 at-bats this year.

The Dodgers are going so well now that the San Francisco Giants have heated up and still lost ground. The Giants are 7-3 in the West League during the last two weeks, but they lost a game to the Dodgers, who were 7-1.


Games of April 27
Seattle 3, at Texas 1.
Colorado 5, at Arizona 4.
DODGERS 8, San Francisco 3.
Houston 9, at San Diego 4.

Games of April 28
at Oakland 6, ANGELS 2.
Seattle 2, at Texas 1.
at Arizona 12, Colorado 5.
San Francisco 2, at DODGERS 1.
Houston 14, at San Diego 3.

Games of April 29
ANGELS 6, at Oakland 3.
Seattle 5, at Texas 2.
at Arizona 9, Colorado 1.
at DODGERS 7, San Francisco 3.
Houston 7, at San Diego 2.

Games of April 30
at Houston 3, Seattle 2.
ANGELS 6, at Oakland 5.

Games of May 1
at Houston 4, Seattle 3.
Oakland 7, at Texas 5.
at DODGERS 8, Arizona 0.
at San Diego 14, Colorado 3.
at San Francisco 3, ANGELS 2.

Games of May 2
at Houston 11, Seattle 4.
at Texas 8, Oakland 7, 10 innings.
at DODGERS 6, Arizona 4.
at San Diego 4, Colorado 2.
at San Francisco 5, ANGELS 4.

Games of May 3
Houston 7, at Seattle 6.
Oakland 7, at Texas 1.
at DODGERS 1, Arizona 0, 13 innings.
at San Diego 8, Colorado 6.
at San Francisco 5, ANGELS 0.

Games of May 4
Seattle 3, at ANGELS 2.
Texas 2, at Houston 1.
San Diego 3, at San Francisco 0.

Games of May 5
at ANGELS 5, Seattle 4.
Texas 7, at Houston 1.
at San Francisco 6, San Diego 0.

Games of May 6
at ANGELS 4, Seattle 3.
Texas 11, at Houston 3.
Arizona 13, Colorado 7.
Arizona 5, at Colorado 1.
San Diego 9, at San Francisco 1.

Games of May 7
Houston 3, at ANGELS 2.
at Arizona 11, San Diego 0.

Games of May 8
at ANGELS 2, Houston 0.
at Seattle 4, Oakland 3, 11 innings.
San Diego 6, at Arizona 5.
DODGERS 2, Colorado 1, 6 innings.

Games of May 9
Houston 6, at ANGELS 5.
at Seattle 7, Oakland 2.
San Diego 6, at Arizona 4.

Games of May 10
at Angels 3, Houston 0.
at Seattle 4, Oakland 3.
at Arizona 2, San Diego 1.
DODGERS 9, Colorado 5.

Games of May 11
No games.

Games of May 12
San Francisco 8, at Houston 1.
at ANGELS 5, Colorado 2.
at Seattle 11, San Diego 4.

Saturday, May 2, 2015

Henry Aaron Award: Dodgers do a turn

The Henry Aaron Award is in the hands of the Dodgers, who took it from the San Diego Padres on the road last weekend and have held it since. The Padres had taken it from the San Francisco Giants, ending a long run with the prize for the World Champions.


Joc Pederson had a .938 slugging percentage (three homers, a double and a single) in 16 at-bats from April 24 through May 1 (TonyTheTiger/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers have defended the Henry Aaron Award by winning two of three from the San Francisco Giants this week at Dodger Stadium.

A 7-3 rubber game win over the Giants on April 29 clinched it for the Dodgers, who hit four home runs against right-hander Ryan Vogelsong, all from the left-handed batters box. Joc Pederson, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier and Jimmy Rollins all went long.

A night earlier, in an anticipated meeting between ace left-handers Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and Madison Bumgarner of the Giants, the Dodgers sat all of their left-handed hitting and turned in a tepid offensive performance in a 2-1 loss. The Dodgers had won the series opener, 8-5.

That came after the Dodgers won the Aaron by taking two of three on the road from the San Diego Padres.

The Dodgers denied another moment with the Aaron to the Giants, who took it  from the Padres during the final regular season series of 2014, then held it all the way through the World Series. The Giants maintained it through their first series of 2015, winning two of three from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Then, the Giants met the Padres again for the second series of the new season. After the Giants won the opener, 1-0 (on April 9), the Padres beat them three straight to recapture the Aaron. And the Padres kept it through more than two weeks of remarkably efficient offense.

With their celebrated new lineup, the Padres held the Aaron for three defenses to take the early lead in the standings. They didn't lose it until the Dodgers beat them on April 25 in San Diego to clinch a series victory with an 11-8 victory. In that game, Ethier, Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick and Juan Uribe all homered for the Dodgers.

In 15 games after that 1-0 loss to the Giants, the Padres scored 79 runs (5.3 per game) and stranded only 86 (5.7 per game), a ratio approaching one-to-one. In the National League, particularly, the ratio of runners stranded to runs scored runs closer to two-to-one, generally. Through April 27, NL teams scored 1,150 runs and left 1,958 runners on base. In 2014, NL teams scored 9,600 runs and left 16,646 runners on base.

Through April 27, the Padres were the league's best-hitting team with two outs and runners in scoring position, carding a .318 batting average. No other NL team was batting higher than .269. The Padres drove in 30 runs (and scored 30) in their 95 place appearances on that split.

2015 Henry Aaron (interleague) standings and results through April 29

Standings

                        W    L    P    T    G    D    A
San Francisco   5     5     3     0     7     1     2
Arizona             2     4    2     0     0     0     0
San Diego         10   7    5     1   13     3     4
DODGERS       4     2    2    1     3     1     1
Colorado           2     2    1     0    0     0     0
Chicago (NL)    1     2     1    0    0     0     0

W — Wins. L — Losses. P — Times played for title. T — Titles won. G — Number of games that team held title after winning it. D — Title defenses. A — Title defense attempts.

Results
San Francisco 2, Arizona 1 — April 6-8 at Arizona.
San Diego 3, San Francisco 1  April 10-12 at San Diego.
San Diego 2, Arizona 1  April 13-15 at San Diego.
San Diego 2, Chicago (NL) 1  April 17-19 at Chicago.
San Diego 2, Colorado 2  April 20-23 at Denver (San Diego, 26-16).
DODGERS 2, San Diego 1  April 24-26 at San Diego.
DODGERS 2, San Francisco 1  April 27-29 at Los Angeles.

Monday, April 20, 2015

West League: Dodgers streak to seven straight

The Dodgers brought two northern opponents to Chavez Ravine last week and cruised to a 6-0 homestand, bringing their winning streak to seven. They have the early lead in the West League. But they travel this week to the haunts of the floundering San Francisco Giants.


Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is swinging as much bat as anyone in the game right now, leading his club to a streaking start in all competitions (TonyTheTiger/Creative Commons Share Alike-Attribution 4.0 International license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

A look at the early West League standings reveals that the balance of power in the west is in the south, particularly Southern California.

The Dodgers (9-3) have won seven in a row after wolfing down two northern opponents, the Seattle Mariners and the Colorado Rockies, in a 6-0 home stand that ended Sunday. The only other club that's even two games above even in the West League, the San Diego Padres, recently enjoyed a good home stand against two northern division clubs, winning three of four against the San Francisco Giants and two of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Maybe some of this will shake back as the Dodgers and Padres hit the road. We could find out quickly.

The Dodgers are in San Francisco Tuesday through Thursday, and even though the Giants are a scuffling 4-10, well, you know the rest.

Right now, though, the Dodgers are riding high. No one in the game is on-basing (.527), slugging (.939), or, therefore, OPSing (1.467) better than Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and he has company in that lineup. Two other Dodgers are in the OPS Top 20 across the Major Leagues — second baseman Howie Kendrick (tenth, 1.105) and rookie center fielder Joc Pederson (20th, .990).

So, the Dodgers are doing fine offensively without Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon. They probably ought to be better defensively with those three replaced, respectively, by Pederson, Jimmy Rollins and Kendrick. Pederson has been terrific with the glove. Rollins, Kendrick and Gonzalez have been less so. But the Dodgers lead all of baseball with a team OPS of .885, which covers a lot of defensive problems.

Much was made during the winter about the Padres bring in a new outfield, and it's worked out well so far, with Kemp (162 OPS-plus), Wil Myers (114) and Justin Upton (191) all hitting. But they haven't outshined the Padres' new pitchers, which is why the Padres are fourth across baseball in staff ERA at 2.79. Give it to newcomers James Shields (2.84), Brandon Morrow (1.29) and Craig Kimbrel (1.42 with four saves).


Games of April 5
St. Louis 3, at Chicago (NL) 0.

Games of April 6
at Cincinnati 5, Pittsburgh 2.
at Detroit 4, Minnesota 0.
at Kansas City 10, Chicago (AL) 1.

Games of April 7
St. Louis at Chicago (NL), ppd.

Games of April 8
at Chicago (NL) 2, St. Louis 0.
at Detroit 11, Minnesota 0.
at Cincinnati 5, Pittsburgh 2 (11 innings).
at Kansas City 7, Chicago (AL) 5.

Games of April 9
at Cincinnati 3, Pittsburgh 2.
at Detroit 7, Minnesota 1.
at Kansas City 4, Chicago (AL) 1.

Games of April 10
Detroit 8, at Cleveland 4
Minnesota 6, at Chicago (AL) 0.
at Cincinnati 5, St. Louis 4.
Pittsburgh 6, at Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 11
St. Louis 4, at Cincinnati 1.
at Chicago (AL) 5, Minnesota 4.
Detroit 9, at Cleveland 6.
at Milwaukee 6, Pittsburgh 0.

Games of April 12
Detroit 8, at Cleveland 5.
St. Louis 7, at Cincinnati 5 (12 innings).
at Chicago (AL) 6, Minnesota 2.
Pittsburgh 10, at Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 13
at Chicago (NL) 7, Cincinnati 6.
at Pittsburgh 5, Detroit 4.
Milwaukee 5, at St. Louis 4.
Kansas City 12, at Minnesota 3.

Games of April 14
Detroit 2, at Pittsburgh 0.
Chicago (AL) 4, at Cleveland 1.
Cincinnati 3, at Chicago (NL) 2.

Games of April 15
at Cleveland 4, Chicago (AL) 2.
Detroit 1, at Pittsburgh 0.
at Chicago (NL) 5, Cincinnati 0.
at Minnesota 3, Kansas City 1.
at St. Louis 4, Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 16
at St. Louis 4, Milwaukee 0.
at Minnesota 8, Kansas City 5.

Games of April 17
at Detroit 2, Chicago (AL) 1.
at Pittsburgh 6, Milwaukee 3.
at Minnesota 3, Cleveland 2.
at St. Louis 6, Cincinnati 1.

Games of April 18
Chicago (AL) 12, at Detroit 3.
Cleveland 4, at Minnesota 2.
at St. Louis 5, Cincinnati 2.
at Pittsburgh 6, Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 19
at Detroit 9, Chicago (AL) 1.
at Pittsburgh 5, Milwaukee 2.
at Minnesota 7, Cleveland 2.
at St. Louis 2, Cincinnati 1.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

A Dodgers-Giants division race? About time!

It's been 10 years since the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants duked it out in the National League West. Now, at long last, blaring out of the All-Star break, here it comes.


We thought a National League West race between the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants might materialize in 2012, but it didn't. This season, it has (public domain image).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

We're just about to that point at which every club across Major League Baseball has played 100 games, and the last month of Dodgers games will never be confused with 42-8.

But it's certainly good enough for now. And only for now.

For now, the Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants are right with each other on top of the National League West, trading the lead back and forth. The true reason is another June swoon by the Giants after they had won two thirds of their games. At the All-Star break, the Dodgers led the West by one game 54-43. A week following the All-Star game, the Giants hold the one-game lead at 56-44.

We're looking now at an enticing possibility, something we haven't seen in 10 years  a race for the NL West between the Dodgers and the Giants, who last really went toe-to-toe in 2004, when the Dodgers prevailed by two games over the Giants.

The Dodgers teased us a little in 2012, when they started so well, then the new ownership came in and splurged on players mid-season. But a true divisional race never materialized because that Dodgers club never synced together. The Giants won the division by eight games and played a solid postseason to win the World Series for the second time in three years while the Dodgers still hadn't won it since 1988.

Finally, last June, the Dodgers began to gel, hitting that 42-8 stride for the division championship while the Giants suffered the downturn of many defending World Champions. The Dodgers couldn't finish the job in the postseason, losing a six-game National League Championship Series to the St. Louis Cardinals, who then fell to the Boston Red Sox in the World Series.

Now, though, here at mid-season 2014, we've got that race that was happening on two coasts more than 3,000 miles apart for a pretty solid 65 years. The Dodgers and Giants have taken their turns this year, just as we might expect. Through June 8, the Giants were 42-21, 9 1/2 games ahead of the second-place Dodgers, stumbling along at a mere 33-31.

Then, all that Giants hitting went away. From June 8 until the All-Star game, the Giants were 10-22, batting only .234 with a team OPS of .630. The Giants, at their best, aren't a great offensive club, and they were well beyond their powers with a .717 club OPS through June 8. At the break, they were .688 (against a league average of .697). They really lost the home run stroke. Through June 8, they had hit 69 homers in 62 games, and they hit 17 homers in 32 games leading to the break.

The Dodgers were 21-12 from June 8 until the break, but they didn't become that by increasing their offensive potency. Through June 8, they slashed .253/.323/.407/.731. From June 8 until the break, they slashed .267/.339/.380/.718. Those slugging percentages tell us the Dodgers actually hit with less power, and they scored substantially less  4.3 runs per game through June 8 and 3.9 from June 8 until the break.

But we've seen some pitching lately, have we not? On May 20, the Dodgers' team ERA peaked at 3.69. From then until the break, the staff tossed up a 2.92, bringing the season number down to 3.29. The Dodgers struggled early with their bullpen, which choked up about a dozen games in the first six weeks. Through May 20, Dodgers relievers notched 13 saves, five blown saves, three wins and nine losses. From then until the break, it was 17 saves, two blows, a win and a loss. That bullpen, which was supposed to be a huge strength, really is one now. Kenley Jansen is 29-for-32 in saves (90 percent) and the team is 82 percent against a league average of 68 percent.

The recovery of the Dodgers' bullpen is Reason No. 1 for the club's rise in the standings. And the bullpen isn't even where the Dodgers pitching staff is at its best. Day after day, their starting pitcher is simply better than the other guy. With Josh Beckett throwing the way he was throwing before going on the disabled list, their No. 4 is better than half of the other clubs have at No. 1. The Dodgers should out-pitch the other club every day, and that has been happening.

We could say the Dodgers will go as far as their pitching can take them, which is pretty far, but we don't have to. Imagine what this club can do when it starts hitting.

By many measurements, the Dodgers are an elite offensive club within the NL this year, and they're not nearly as productive as they could be. With only 78 homers in their 102 games, they would have to hit one per game the rest of the year to match last year's total of 138 homers. If those homers come, the Dodgers will light it up.

The Dodgers have a few left-handed hitters who might pick it up a little. Last season, Adrian Gonzalez ran a 124 OPS-plus and now he's carding a 114, while Andre Ethier is down from 120 to 94 and Carl Crawford is down from 107 to 94.

Oddly enough for a club whose best hitters are right-handed, the Dodgers continue as one of the league's worst hitting clubs against left-handed pitchers. Against lefties, the Dodgers split .231/.315/.360/.675 with a relative OPS-plus of 90 compared with the league, which splits .252/.317/.391/.708 against left-handers. Right-handed batters Matt Kemp and Juan Uribe OPS .613 and .606 against lefties.

Yet, the Dodgers are, by the measurements, better offensively than they were last season. In 2013, the Dodgers slashed .264/.326/.396/.722, ranking third, third, sixth and fourth in the NL. But they ranked only seventh in runs with 649. This year, they are slashing .258/.329/.397/.726, ranking second, third, third and third. And they're also third in runs with 424.

The difference in terms of their offensive efficiency, just to pick one, is Dee Gordon, a forgotten man, who, out of nowhere, became a second baseman  and an All-Star second baseman, at that. Gordon has added a running dimension that this club sorely needed. The Dodgers already have stolen 91 bases (and been caught 35 times), with Gordon already swiping 45 bases in 55 attempts. Last year, the Dodgers swiped only 78 bases all year (and were caught 28 times). Their stolen base leader, Carl Crawford, was 15-for-19.

So, the Dodgers approach their last 60 games as a strong contender with a lot of room to grow. It bodes well for the remainder of this season. But there is one thing standing in their way. The Giants.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Friday, June 13, 2014

Dodgers freeze in first inning

The Dodgers lack luster so far, and it shows in the way they start the game. The Dodgers have scored only 25 runs in the first inning. Only San Diego, among National League clubs, has fewer runs to show for the first frame.


Dee Gordon has made many contributions this season for the Dodgers, but he's still not getting the offense started in the first inning (bridgetds/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Those arriving so late as to miss the first inning at Dodger Stadium aren't seeing nothing happening.

Nothing happening is the Dodgers offense in the first inning, specifically at home. Across baseball through the years, the first inning is the best inning for scoring, but it's one of the worst this year for the Dodgers. Entering a six-game homestand on June 13, they've scored only 25 first-inning runs all season, the second-lowest total in the National League. Only the San Diego Padres, with 20, are less successful.

If you're able to see the road games because you're able to see the Dodgers on TV, you might not notice it as much. The Dodgers are about like a normal club in the first inning on the road, scoring in the first inning 11 times for a total of 17 runs (they're 8-3 in those games). The average Major League club has scored 31.8 runs in the first inning this year (home and road), so the Dodgers are close to the average just as a road team.

At home, the Dodgers have scored only six times in the first inning, totaling eight runs (They're 2-4 in those games.). When you look at the Dodgers having the second-worst home record in the league at 13-19, it would seem that failing to score in the first inning 26 times has something to do with it.

In 32 home games, the Dodgers have scored three runs or fewer 16 times. They have won one of those games. They have scored two or fewer at home 11 times, and won none of those games. They've scored one run six times, but they've been shut out once.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly suggested in The Los Angeles Times Friday morning that the expanded and refurbished clubhouse at Dodger Stadium might influence how badly the Dodgers are performing at home. That's an intuition and we'll leave that with the Dodgers. What really pops the eye is the numbers for their offensive performers in the first inning, when they emerge from the clubhouse.

Put Dee Gordon in the road greys and he's a snappy player, batting .296 with a .355 on-base percentage. Even at home, he's .274 and .306. But in the first inning, Gordon remains overmatched, going .265 and .294. Gordon has the third most first-inning plate appearances for the Dodgers (51), all at the top of the lineup, and he has scored only five runs. One of those was a solo homer.

But the problem isn't merely that Gordon doesn't get on to create first-inning opportunities, for he can at least boast the third-best batting average for the inning of any Dodgers hitter (with at least 10 first-inning plate appearances). Most of the hitters down the order are even worse.

Hanley Ramirez is a .240 hitter with a .725 OPS in the first inning (58 plate appearances, most on the club.). Andre Ethier is three-for-26 (.188) with one walk, four strikeouts and two RBI in the first inning.

It's no secret that Matt Kemp isn't what he used to be, especially in the first inning. During his should-have-been-MVP season of 2011, he slashed .383/.445/.798/1.243 in the first inning. All of those were his highs for an inning, except for a .455 on-base percentage in the eighth. His first inning runs (23), homers (11) and RBI (36) were his highs for an inning. This year, his first inning is two-for-15 (.133) with no walks and three strikeouts. He has reached base twice, but also grounded into three double plays, so he has a negative output concerning base runners in the first inning.

Not to suggest a correlation, but Kemp's work against left-handed pitching has fallen off the same way. The Dodgers have been turned out by left-handers for at least three years, but Kemp once gave them one guy who could tear lefties apart so badly that they were going to score, anyway. In 2011, he split .341/.461/.682/1.142 against left-handers, with 11 homers and 32 RBI in 132 at-bats, 30 walks and 29 strikeouts.

In 2014 against left-handers, Kemp is .176/.211/.294/.505 with no homers and five RBI in 68 at-bats, three walks and 18 strikeouts. He is literally less than half the hitter he used to be against left-handers.

This year, the Dodgers are batting .213 with a .644 OPS against left-handers, each being better than only the Padres in the NL. Their batting average on balls in play (.260) is barely better than the Padres at a bottom-ranking .259.

But the Dodgers do two things reasonably well against left-handers, and they count: they walk and they can occasionally run into a left-hander and take him out of the park (16 homers). None of those are balls batted into play.

The homers make the Dodgers about average in the NL. The benefit is multiplied, however, because the Dodgers have walked 62 times against 606 plate appearances, the second-highest such proportion in the league against left-handers. So, they are seventh in runs against left-handers (66), though also third in plate appearances (682).

Most of their damage to left-handers comes from the right side, naturally, and especially from Scott Van Slyke, who has six homers in 44 at-bats and a 1.243 OPS against left-handers. As far as how the Dodgers' left-handed hitters do against left-handed pitching, Clayton Kershaw is about as good as any of them.

We got sidetracked just now and began looking at how badly the Dodgers handle left-handers as the discussion got into Kemp. This is supposed to be about how the Dodgers score fewer runs in the first inning than all but one other club in the National League. We don't suggest any kind of cause and effect between the two. We can't even imagine which would be the cause and which would be the effect. We know, also, that struggling against left-handers is a long-term trait of the Dodgers, while we suppose that the first-inning problem will work itself out in the long run of cases this season.

The numbers are too weird to believe right now. The Dodgers, as said before, are 15th in the NL with 25 runs in the first inning. But seven American League teams have scored fewer first-inning runs than the Dodgers, and two of them are the Boston Red Sox (24) and Detroit Tigers (23). Can we really expect it to end this way?

The Red Sox pounced on everyone at the start last year, but their first inning this year reeks of Dustin Pedrioa (.619 OPS in the first inning) and David Ortiz (.631). For the Tigers, Miguel Cabrera is relatively lacking luster with his first-inning OPS of .843, and Victor Martinez is less than that at .669. But along with that, Ian Kinsler (.514) and Torii Hunter (.483) are next to nothing in the first inning.

Allowing that Hunter may be finally showing his age at 39, it's hard to believe that all these elite players between the Dodgers, Red Sox and Tigers are going to continue stammering through the first inning. With about 100 games left in the season, it's early enough to believe that these hitters will work it out.

The Dodgers have a couple hitters somewhat delivering in the first inning. Adrian Gonzalez has a .286 batting average and an .897 OPS, while Yasiel Puig has a .298 batting average and .888 OPS. But neither of those are sky high, and they're not enough to paper over all the other weak first-inning performers.

It should be mentioned that the Dodgers have a ninth-inning problem, as well, and it is serious. They are second from the bottom across baseball in ninth-inning batting average (.174) and OPS (.508). The average team has scored 22.6 ninth-inning runs and the Dodgers have scored 15. They have no one hitting in the ninth. The most culpable by OPS are Gordon (.649), Carl Crawford (.481), Ethier (.478), Van Slyke (.465), Puig (.440), Gonzalez (.269) and Kemp (.241). It would seem that the Dodgers struggle against the top relievers.

The ninth inning and the first inning are different problems. The first inning is never a do-or-die situation, but it always counts and it is the best opportunity for arranging offensive talent to strike against a pitcher who hasn't gotten into his tool box. That's why the first inning is the highest scoring inning. The ninth inning may or may not be crucial. If some team gets well enough on top, it isn't.

The Dodgers are flat-lining at 35-33 this year, and one reason is that they can't get on top of a game at Dodger Stadium. They seldom score in the first inning at home and, even when they do, they've still lost two-thirds of the time.

The probability gremlins discourage a flat prediction that the Dodgers will ultimately reach their level in the first inning. But the Dodgers certainly are paying enough bats to do it. The hot streak we're waiting for could ride on it.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Red Sox build champion by inches, not miles

Almost no one believed the Boston Red Sox were about to win the World Series when the 2013 baseball season began. Everyone else in the American League East appeared to be better. Just shows, once more, how easily we can be tricked by names and fame.


Who even noticed that John Farrell managed the Boston Red Sox to the 2013 World Championship (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license)?

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The winter is here, so it's time to scour the list of free agent players to determine the best new fits for one's team, and to investigate the trade market for deals.

Most of all, in some quarters, it's time to make a splash, to make headlines, to energize the fans and create a buzz for 2014.

However, as the Boston Red Sox showed us in 2013, building a champion isn't the same thing as lighting up the news ether. Come to think of it, the Los Angeles Angels of the last two years have made the same point.

When it's about building a champion, tiny, incremental approaches work just as well loading up star power, if not better. Improving your club by inches instead of miles works. Addition by subtraction works. Building for depth, rather than star power, works.

It also helps to have key players bounce back from injuries and poor seasons. It helps to install a field manager who might not be a big star or a big personality, but who understands that the players are the team.

It also helps to have players rising to the moment. And one of the greatest postseason hitters in the game's history.

On Aug. 25, 2012, the Red Sox made a blockbuster deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, clearing away about $275 in outstanding salaries and receiving almost nothing in return. On their way to a last-place finish, the Red Sox dealt away real big league talent like Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, who were good players for the Dodgers in 2013, and a solid bench player in Nick Punto. They dealt away pitcher Josh Beckett, who has seen some high points in his big league career.

In return, the Red Sox received a swag bag containing James Loney, Ivan De Jesus, Jerry Sands, Allen Webster and Rubby De Le Rosa. Before the 2013 season began, all the Red Sox retained from that group was Webster and De La Rosa.

As we baseball initiates digested the trade, all we could think was that the Dodgers, under their new ownership, were boldly building a pennant winner, while the Red Sox consigned themselves to a long haul of building themselves from the very bottom of the tough American League East to the top.

So, we had that wrong.

The Dodgers did, in fact, markedly improve their team. It didn't show up in the balance of the 2012 season, nor did it appear for the majority of 2013. However, the Dodgers put together that incredible 42-8 run, the best extended period for any team in more than 70 years, and won the National League West easily. Then, they won a round of playoffs against the Atlanta Braves before falling to the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series.

But the Red Sox ruled baseball in 2013.

Their new manager, John Farrell, is quite a bit less bombastic than his predecessor, Bobby Valentine, which had to even out the moods in that clubhouse. A pitcher, John Lackey, who had been counted by Red Sox fans among their most disappointing acquisitions, produced a nice year and helped solidify the starting rotation.

They improved their team by inches, rather than miles, bringing in players like David Ross, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara, Stephen Drew and Mike Carp. The total combined payroll cost for all of those players in 2013 came to about $30 million.

The Red Sox began 2012 with a payroll of $173 million, with hundreds of millions more in guaranteed future salaries. The reduced their payroll to $150 million in 2013, while dramatically reducing their future salary exposure. They improved by 28 wins, from 69 in 2012 to 97 in 2013. Addition by subtraction.

The signing of Uehara proved to be especially helpful. The Red Sox had hoped Joel Hanrahan, acquired by trade from the Pittsburgh Pirates, would be their closer. That failing, perhaps Andrew Bailey, acquired a year earlier from the Oakland Athletics, would be that man. But both were hurt and neither could close. It fell to Uehara, who was nearly unhittable (33 hits in 74 1/3 innings, 0.565 WHIP). They built for depth.

Mostly, though, it was about David Ortiz, who lasted only 90 games in 2012 due to an injury to his right Achilles tendon. Ortiz was all the way back in 2013, and the lineup the Red Sox built around him was relentless. And that's largely due to the full return of leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury, who missed two months of the 2012 season with a shoulder injury.

Based on our appreciation of on-base percentage and slugging percentage, the Red Sox lineup in 2013 was a blueprint for scoring. Their most frequent one through three hitters, Ellsbury, Victorino and Dustin Pedroia, produced solid on-base percentages, respectively, of .355, .351 and .372. None of that is league-leading production, but they're all tough outs and they all provided a bit of pop with slugging percentages ranging from .415 to .451.

Their most frequent five through seven hitters -- Napoli, Daniel Nava and Jarrod Saltalamacchia -- produced slugging percentages ranging from .445 to .482, none of which is top ten material, but they're all good, and they're real good in combination for those spots in the order. And they were tough outs, with on-base percentages ranging from .338 to .385.

In the middle of all that was the clean-up hitter, that powerhouse, Ortiz, who produced a .395 on-base percentage, a .564 slugging percentage and an OPS-plus of 160, fourth in the American League.

During the postseason, Ortiz produced not just big numbers, but key hits at critical junctures. Best of all was the grand slam in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series, tying that game in the eighth inning after the Detroit Tigers had taken a 5-1 lead and threatened to go up in games, 2-0, at Fenway Park.

After beating the Tampa Bay Rays in a four-game American League Divisional Series, the Red Sox beat the Tigers in a six-game ALCS, then defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in a six-game World Series.

In 14 games of postseason play, Ortiz reached base 34 times, batting .352 (18 for 51) with 16 walks (only seven strikeouts), five homers and 13 RBI.

Sometimes, the best addition is a player you had all along. That, too, is worth remembering as we crank up the hot stove for another winter.

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Dodgers dolt up NLCS opener, lose in 13 innings

It seemed as though the entire Dodgers organization had a collective synaptic misfiring Friday, when they set their roster for the National League Championship Series quite questionably, then performed questionably in Game 1. It still took the St. Louis Cardinals 13 innings to beat them, 3-2.


St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Carlos Beltran drove in all three of his team's runs and cut down a scoring chance for the Dodgers Friday night (djprybyl/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers were so air-headed Friday that they just about had to lose their National League Championship Series opener to the St. Louis Cardinals, and they did.

The in-game decisions by players and manager alike are sure to be turned over endlessly if the series ends with the Dodgers losing. Upper management didn't cover itself with glory before the game, either. The Dodgers now are down, 1-0, with Game 2 coming up at 1 p.m. PST Saturday in St. Louis.

First, the game. The Dodgers lost, 3-2, in 13 innings. The end came after Dodgers reliever Chris Withrow gave up a single to Daniel Descalso and a walk to Matt Carpenter with one out in the 13th. The Dodgers manager, Don Mattingly, had no choice but to call his closer, Kenley Jansen, with Carlos Beltran coming to the plate.

You hate to use your closer in a tie game on the road, which is why Jansen didn't start the inning. But Withrow couldn't keep the bases clean, so the tying run moved into scoring position and, at that point, the situation is desperate. Jansen is his best guy in the bullpen, and Mattingly's best chance to keep the run from scoring.

Jansen threw strike one, then three straight fastballs too low, running the count to 3-1. At that point, Beltran had a free swing. Jansen threw the next fastball away and about knee high, Beltran took his rip and bolted it into right field to drive in Descalso. Game over.

But the Dodgers lost this game in so many other ways. Players didn't come through enough to get the job done earlier. Dodgers hitters were one-for-10 with runners in scoring position. They didn't knock out Cardinals starter Joe Kelly when they had several chances early.

The keynote was set in the first inning, when the Dodgers put runners at second and third with one out. Adrian Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig struck out to end the inning. The Dodgers scored twice against Kelly in the third, but it amounted to minimal damage. Bases loaded, one out, Puig grounded to the pitcher, who threw home for a force out. Next, Juan Uribe singled through the middle to drive in two runners and move Puig to second base. Andre Ethier then flew out to center field, ending the inning.

The Cardinals came right back in their half of the third after their first two batters, David Freese and Pete Kozma struck out. Kelly somehow singled to left, then Dodgers starter Zack Greinke walked Carpenter. The next man up, Beltran, hit a drive to the center field wall. Ethier, rusty from not playing for a while in the outfield, came close to catching it at the wall, but missed. Two runs scored, tying the game, 2-2.

The game stayed that way until the 13th inning. Though the 10th inning, the Dodgers sent up only two more batters than the minimum. They could get nothing started. Seeing precious few scoring opportunities, Mattingly sent in Dee Gordon to punch run for Gonzalez after a leadoff walk in the eighth. Very interesting decision.

Why would you make it? Because you're not getting people on base, and you have a couple hitters coming up -- Puig and Juan Uribe -- who can give you a jolt. In fact, Uribe has four RBI in the last two games. A double by one of these players drives in a run if Gordon is running, and not if Gonzalez is running.

Why would you not make it? Because you don't want to take Gonzalez and his bat out of the lineup in a game that could be going to extra innings. And because you're probably not trying to steal second base against Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who threw out 43 percent of attempting base stealers this year. It's a move that says you're trying to take the lead right now so you can close it out with Brian Wilson pitching the eighth and Jansen pitching the ninth.

Mattingly’s explanation was a little disturbing. By the accounts, it went like this: “If we don't use (Gordon) there and the next guy hits a ball in the gap and he doesn't score and we don't score there, we're going to say, 'Why didn't you use Dee?’”

Sounds too much like Mattingly is wary from constant second guessing, and he sought to guard himself from another second guess. The problem is that people watching the game questioned it as a first guess.

Anyway, it didn't work. Puig hit into a force and Uribe hit into an inning ending double play. It was the first of three double plays that would end Dodgers innings. Michael Young, who replaced Gonzalez, hit into both of the others.

Young once was an excellent batsman who tacked up 200 hits in multiple seasons because he hit the ball hard to right field. But he turns 37 next week and he no longer has the bat speed of a .315 hitter. He's more like .275 or .280, which is better than most, but the difference shows up against postseason quality.

Many commentators have complained that having Young bat behind Hanley Ramirez took the bat away from Ramirez, as the Cardinals intentionally walked Ramirez in the 10th and 12th innings with Young on-deck. It's much more sensible to suppose that if you're the Cardinals, you're not letting Ramirez beat you even if Gonzalez is up behind him. The real damage from missing Gonzalez lies in the fact that he's simply a better hitter than Young and, being left-handed, he might have forced some uncomfortable decisions on Cardinals manager Mike Matheny.

With one out in the tenth, Mark Ellis tripled for the Dodgers. One wished at that point for Gordon to be available. But he wasn't, and the Cardinals walked Ramirez so they could pitch to Young. On a 1-0 pitch, Young hit a lazy fly ball to medium right field, with Beltran coming in on the ball to catch it.

Beltran is well known for his arm and Molina is well known for his excellence at blocking the plate. Ellis is not well known for his speed. But Ellis tried to score on the fly ball, with predictable results. He was out by several feet. There was some question of whether Molina actually tagged Ellis, but even Ellis conceded that he was out. When there's a collision at home plate and the catcher hangs onto the ball, he will get that call every time.

Nothing went right for the Dodgers in this one. Their roster setting decisions before the game didn't go right, either. Facing a St. Louis team that batted .238 against left-handed pitching this season, the Dodgers decided to leave lefties Paco Rodriguez and Chris Capuano off the NLCS in favor of right-handers Edinson Volquez and Carlos Marmol.

Mattingly told reporters that management discussed that call for five hours. One has to wonder what goes down in a decision making process that last five hours and lands on removing two lefties from your staff when you're playing a team that doesn't hit them.

But that's how the day went for the Dodgers. Not a very promising start to the NLCS.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Dodgers bashing everyone -- except left-handed starters

The Dodgers would seem to be unstoppable right now, winning 26 of their last 32 games and improving their standing by 12 games in five weeks. But there is this matter about failing to hit left-handed starters that defies easy explanation.



Contrary to what one might think, Andre Ethier is not the problem for the Dodgers as they struggle against left-handed starters (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers are what it's all about in baseball right now, winning 26 of their last 32, winning when they strike out 20 times, winning against teams that appeared in the 2012 playoffs, winning everywhere they go.

From a low point of 30-42 and 9 1/2 games out of first place on June 21, the Dodgers have soared to 56-48 and a 2 1/2-game lead on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West. Against teams that played in last year’s postseason, the Dodgers are 11-2 during this run. Hits make headlines, and the Dodgers are making plenty of both, batting .285, hitting 35 homers and scoring five runs per game during this 32-game romp.

However, hard as it is to find failure in this Dodgers surge, their 1-0 win at Dodger Stadium against the Cincinnati Reds on July 28 illustrated a flaw. The Dodgers continue to struggle against left-handed starting pitchers, and especially against good left-handed starters. In that 1-0 win on Sunday, the Dodgers struck out 20 times, their most since they moved to Los Angeles in 1958. Reds starter Tony Cingrani struck out 11 of them in seven innings.

During these last 32 games, the Dodgers have faced nine left-handed starters, and they have won their share, going 7-2. However, that's mostly a gift of their own outstanding pitching, as their batting has been little help in these games.

Here's the line for left-handed starters against the Dodgers during the run: 54 2/3 innings, 45 hits, 21 runs, 19 earned runs, 16 walks and 60 strikeouts. Left-handed starters are throwing a 3.13 ERA at the Dodgers during this period, with a WHIP of 1.116.

And this includes three real clunkers pitched to the Dodgers by left-handers of little or no distinction: Mike Kickham of the San Francisco Giants, Drew Pomeranz of the Colorado Rockies and Tyler Skaggs of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Throw those out, and the other six left-handed starts against the Dodgers have issued this line: 42 innings, 22 hits, nine runs, eight earned, eight walks and 48 strikeouts, which comes out to an ERA of 1.75 and a WHIP of 0.731.

In the 23 games started against the Dodgers by right-handers, they have scored 5.56 runs per game. In the nine games started against the Dodgers by left-handers, they have scored 3.67 runs per game.

A couple of peculiarities go along with this. For one, the Dodgers actually are one of the best hitting teams in the National League against left-handers. Their .261 batting average against lefties is best in the league, their .321 on-base percentage ranks third, their .401 slugging average ranks third and their .721 OPS ranks second. For another, their top producers aren't bad at all against lefties. Yasiel Puig is batting .365 against righties and .392 against lefties. Adrian Gonzalez is batting .310 against righties and .279 against lefties. Hanley Ramirez is batting .405 against righties and .311 against lefties.

Even Andre Ethier, who has never been known for hitting lefties, has done his part during this run of games. Though Ethier's .241 batting average against lefties this year closely tracks his lifetime .238 average against them, he is six-for-19 with a walk and five strikeouts against left-handed starters during these last 32 games.

But one can see how the Dodgers weaken against left-handers once they go down the lineup from Puig. Against right-handed starters, the Dodgers line up, two through five, with Puig, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. This group has demonstrated some prodigious feats of hitting in that alignment against right-handers. But we see that Gonzalez is just a little less productive against lefties, then Ramirez follows him by being nearly 100 batting average points worse against lefties. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly moves Ethier down the order or benches him against lefties and the No. 5 hitter in his place -- be he Jerry Hairston, Juan Uribe, or whoever -- simply doesn't produce.

Why Mattingly ever thinks Uribe is a good selection against left-handers, by the way, is a mystery. Mattingly has managed Uribe since the start of the 2011 season, during which time Uribe is a .167 batter against left-handers (31-for-186), including .204 this year (11-for-54).

While Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti seeks trade deadline upgrades, it would seem that a strong right-handed bat is an obvious target. But the Dodgers might not even have to particularly worry about that, because they have Matt Kemp waiting on the disabled list. No one destroys left-handers like Kemp, who batted .363 against them last season and has hit them for a .340 average throughout his career.

It's hard to criticize the Dodgers right now, and they certainly have the magic. Even striking out 20 times against Cingrani and the Reds, for example, their own pitching, led by lefty starter Chris Campuano, was even better, and there was that man, Puig, with the homer to win it in the 11th.

But they do have a vulnerability here, and a playoff opponent that can present them with left-handed pitches could cause them problems. Assuming, of course, that they reach the playoffs. Thus, there's still a good deal of this season riding on Matt Kemp. There always is. Even, it seems, when he is out of sight.




Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Puig lifts Dodgers, but can they stay up?

The new Dodgers outfielder, Cuban defector Yasiel Puig, has really juiced up a flagging ball club. Better yet, he is going to make outfielders with big contracts fight for playing time. With two first-place clubs coming to Dodger Stadium in the next week, see if the Dodgers can make a move.


Yasiel Puig has added a new level of energy to the Dodgers two days into his big league career (Spanneraol/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

We're signing up for that chorus singing the praises of Yaseil Puig, his major league debut, and what it means for the Dodgers. Suddenly, and for however long, the Dodgers look like a team that might play a high level of baseball. Imagine the Dodgers, with the most errors in baseball, winning a game on a defensive play.

Sitting here on the morning of June 5, the Dodgers have a chance to move out of the National League West basement this evening as they attempt a three-game sweep of the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium. Trying not to go Pollyanna about this under-performing club, it's one sign among many that the worst is over for the Dodgers, and that they're not far from making a move. Could be wrong, of course. Been wrong many times before. The game is based in failure. 

We'll find out soon enough, because this proposal is being put to the test right away. The remainder of the present Dodgers home stand involves two visiting first place teams -- the Atlanta Braves of the NL East and the Arizona Diamondbacks of the NL West. If there's anything real in this new pulse we're feeling, it will be revealed in the next week, because it has been characteristic of the Dodgers that they don't handle teams their own size, which is the main reason they're not really that size. Against clubs that are .500 or better at this moment, no NL club is worse than the Dodgers at 11-22. They're not as good as they need to be against losing teams, either (only 14-10), but if you can't at least come in around even against the winners, the losing teams will not genuflect in your presence. They'll know you can be had.

So, they've been getting the Dodgers, much more than they should. Another group of teams that are getting the Dodgers much more than they should consists of their NL West brethren, against whom the Dodgers, on the strength of two wins in the last two days against San Diego, now are 8-18. 

This club's problems have been much discussed. Injuries have dug so deep into the pitching staff that a club wondering what to do with eight starters in the winter has wound up giving starts to Matt Magill and Stephen Fife. Too many of Brandon League's fastballs come in too high, so he has a 4.84 ERA as a closer. The Dodgers are fourth in the league in on-base percentage (.325), but only 13th in runs per game (3.61). With runners in scoring position (RISP), the Dodgers are 13th in the NL in batting average (.234), 14th in OPS (.636) and 15th, dead last, in slugging percentage (.315). 

When we crack open those RISP numbers a little bit, we see a lot of what we've seen on the field. With RISP and two out, the Dodgers are a middling team in the NL -- sixth in batting average (.234) and eighth in OPS (.639). Notice that the batting average and OPS are about the same either way, but the Dodgers are six and seven rungs lower in the NL when we look at all RISP situations compared with RISP and two out. That's what the numbers look like for a club that consistently fails to get the runner in from third with less than two out. No other team in the NL kills its own rallies quite like the Dodgers.

Here's a worthwhile comparison, considering that Arizona is the first-place team in the NL West. With runners in scoring position and two out, no one is worse than the Diamondbacks -- dead last in batting average (.183), dead last in OPS (.585), 12th in on-base percentage (.299) and 14th in slugging percentage (.286). The Diamondbacks aren't where they are because they get big two-out hits. They get big one-out hits. They get big no-out hits. They keep rallies going and put up crooked numbers. In all RISP situations, look how the Diamondbacks rise in the NL rankings -- still only 10th in batting average (.241), but seventh in on-base percentage (.326), seventh in slugging average (.393) and fifth in OPS (.719). 

Put a little differently, here are a couple of quick charts. First, here's how the Diamondbacks and Dodgers chart with RISP and two out:

Team         AB       H      TB      R     BB+HB   BA     OBP     SLG   OPS     
D'Backs    224      41      64      59        37       .183   .299      .286    .585
Dodgers    224      52      68      60        35       .232   .336      .304    .639

The Dodgers are a little better with RISP and two out, right in the middle of the NL, while the Diamondbacks are at the bottom. Now, compare these two clubs with RISP and less than two out:

Team         AB       H      TB      R     BB+HB   BA     OBP     SLG     OPS
D'Backs    244      72      120    131      32       .295    .392     .491     .883 
Dodgers    237      56        77     91      32       .236    .341     .324     .665

Look at that difference in scoring with RISP and less than two outs. The Diamondbacks have scored 40 more runs in about the same number of at-bats. Pretty much covers the whole difference in scoring this year between the Diamondbacks, who have scored 250 runs, and the Dodgers, who have scored 206.

We have complained here before that no one chokes up a rally the way Matt Kemp has been doing it this year, and our only regret was that we didn't include Andre Ethier in that same breath. But it's a slight regret, because Ethier isn't on the same plane as Kemp. If Kemp is gone and Ethier plays at the top of his game, then Ethier still isn't the Dodgers' best guy. Adrian Gonzalez is better. But if Kemp is at the top of his game, he's the best player on any team. Kemp is an elite player, whereas Ethier is the third best hitter on a contending team. So, we expect more from Kemp. We haven't been getting it. With RISP and less than two out, Kemp is four-for-32, all singles, with 14 strikeouts.

A couple of weeks ago, when Dodgers manager Don Mattingly started telling on his players in the media -- and they definitely had it coming -- he did Kemp a real favor by revealing that the outfielder still doesn't have himself right from reconstructive surgery on his front shoulder during the offseason. Suddenly, the fans and commentators began to see Kemp and his struggles in a new light. The man just wasn't there physically. Watching him talk to himself on the way to the dugout after another strikeout with one out and a man on second, we already knew he wasn't there mentally. Now, we began to kind of understand why.

If ever there might be gratitude about an injury, Kemp's slight pull of his right hamstring last week might be such a case. From the cheap seats, he already looked like he needed to get away. Now, he can rest his head and his shoulder while healing his hammy. Shutting Kemp down for a couple of weeks right now is the smart play on its own merits.

When the Dodgers also had to disable Carl Crawford, they made a desperate play. The Dodgers didn't want to call up Puig, the 22-year-old Cuban defector who they signed last year for seven years at $42 million. Seeing that size and speed in spring training, and seeing all that he did, batting .526 in the Cactus League, the Dodgers just wanted him to develop for a year. The Dodgers were right for wanting that, and they were just as right for calling him up because they had to.

What we've seen in two days of Puig in right field at Dodger Stadium is movie stuff. First game, he singled in his first at-bat, then he ended the game with a powerful throw to double a runner off first base. Second game, two home runs and five RBI. Two Dodger wins.

And, for all their trouble this year, we suddenly see a Dodgers team with a breath and a heartbeat. Then, when we look at the standings, they're only 7 1/2 games out. 

Suddenly, Hanley Ramirez is back, Puig is up, Kemp is getting straightened out and we're seeing contributions from Scott Van Slyke. Now, outfielders with big contracts are going to fight for playing time. See if we get a little more assertiveness out there. And there's still a schedule of 105 games left to be played.

The young outfielder, Puig, has given the Dodgers a nice lift. See if they can run with it.

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