First Division: Three ways the Rays do it

The Tampa Bay Rays weren't supposed to win this year, but they lead the American League East and they're thick in the race for the First Division and the East League. The Rays succeed by doing a lot right under the radar.

Tampa Bay pitching coach Jim Hickey is one of the main reasons the Rays keep winning (Wknight94/Creative Commons 3.0 Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

We all thought it must have been good while it lasted, but we also thought it must be over. We all thought the Tampa Bay Rays couldn't win anymore.

After six straight winning seasons – five with 90 or more wins – the Rays fell to 77-85 in 2014, and the losses didn't end there. Within the same four months in 2014, the Rays traded pitching ace David Price, lost manager Joe Maddon to the Chicago Cubs and lost general manager Andrew Friedman to the Los Angeles Dodgers. That's a No. 1 starter and a brain trust gone from a team playing in a stadium no one likes, a team that couldn't afford big free agents even if it could attract them, and a team with little apparent appeal within its region.

But the Rays are back on top this year, leading the American League East and, incidentally, contending hard in the First Division. The question of the day: How do the Rays do it?

We don't have the answers, but here are three aspects of the Rays that we like, and which might, at least, pass for clues:

1. The pitching coach. About 10 years ago, it seemed as though FOX Sports was on a mission to make a media star of Jim Hickey, the Houston Astros pitching coach back then. Some of us got kind of tired of looking at him, and, anyway, who couldn't coach that pitching staff? The Astros has Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Brad Lidge, among others.

Hickey became Tampa Bay's pitching coach in 2007. The Rays don't have guys like Clemens, Pettitte and Lidge this year. They don't even have Price or James Shields. But, according to baseball-reference.com through June 24, they have the best ERA (3.28) and the best ERA-plus (121) in the American League, and they've thrown the second-most strikeouts (617).

None of this is unusual in Tampa Bay. In Hickey's first eight seasons as the pitching coach there (2007-14), the Rays led the AL in strikeouts (9,924), WHIP (1.28) and opponent's batting average (.247), while running second in ERA (3.94). That WHIP, according to the Rays' website, is the lowest over an eight-year period by any team since the New York Yankees hit the same number from 1976 through 1983.

By the way, the Rays are doing it right now with Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi – all of whom would be in this rotation if they were healthy – making a total of 15 starts this season. Put those four healthy with Chris Archer and you've got an enviable rotation.

Jim Hickey can get it done without Clemens, Pettitte, Lidge, Price, Shields or any stars. This man can coach up a pitching staff. And he might be Reason No. 1 why the Rays are where they are.

2. Strong defense up the middle. So many teams under-estimate the importance of having guys who know how to defend behind the plate, at second base, at shortstop and center field. But if you're looking for a cost-effective improvement with under-valued skills – let's just say the whole world has caught up to on-base percentage by now. Strong defense up the middle is another matter.

The Rays are paying catcher Rene Rivera, second baseman Logan Forsythe, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier a combined $10.3 million this season – $7.5 million of it for Cabrera, who they signed this year as a free agent. By the count of baseball-reference.com through June 24, they combined for 3.0 defensive WAR. All of these players are plus defenders through their Major League careers.

You don't see the Rays give up many bases defensively. They don't hit enough to get away with that, and everyone knows it. When the Rays give up bases defensively, they lose. With good pitching and good defense, the Rays win, even if they are 13th in the American League with 273 runs scored.

3. Prime-aged players. Maddon made a fascinating remark when the Rays signed James Loney as a free agent before the 2013 season. It's safe to say that Loney's previous two franchises, the Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox, did not engage the Rays in a bidding war. But the Rays were glad to sign him, and Maddon noted at the time that Loney was 29, an age when a lot of players, Maddon said, start to figure it out.

Why don't the rest of us think like that? We'll see a player who's 27, 28, 29 and never made much impact in the Major Leagues, and we just suppose he's not worth the trouble because ... what? Because he's not going to have a Hall of Fame career?

We must be crazy. The Rays have it exactly right. They don't shop for Hall of Famers. But they will run a guy out there in his late twenties athletic prime so long as he can produce a little bit and not kill them fundamentally. They're happy to take his two or three good seasons, then move on. There are always a few guys lying around who are 28 or 29, just now figuring it out, and they're not expensive.

Every heard of Joey Butler? That's because he's 29 and never done anything. Until this year, when he's giving the Rays a 140 OPS-plus (.840 OPS), mostly as their designated hitter. Forsythe was a first-round pick by the San Diego Padres in 2008 and has never distinguished himself. But he's 28 now, playing a good second base and OPSing .824.

Rivera is 31, Loney is 31, Cabrera is 29, Evan Longoria is 29, David DeJesus is 35, Kiermaier is 25, Steven Souza is 26, Brandon Guyer is 29 and Jake Elmore is 28. That's the lion's share of Tampa Bays at-bats and defensive innings. It's a no-name group, and definitely not a young group. It's an experienced group and, to be sure, those experiences haven't all been glorious throughout their lives in professional baseball, but it is experience and it does matter. At the same time, it's not so much experience that the players are flat-up old.

The Rays do an awful lot well under the radar. That's why they're above everyone else in the American League East.

AL East: Can Red Sox repeat?

The Boston Red Sox, who seemed resigned to scratching out a down season, ended up winning the whole thing. Having David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury for the full season helped a lot. But Ellsbury has jumped to the New York Yankees this year, and that might be enough to usher in a new winner.

Of all the offseason moves in this division, none changes the balance like Jacoby Ellsbury jumping from the Red Sox to the Yankees (Parkerjh at the English language Wikipedia/Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Entering 2013, no one figured the Boston Red Sox would win the American League East. Entering 2014, no one figured they won't.

However, considered entirely from the standpoint of 2013 WAR value, the transactions of the offseason have considerably narrowed the gap between the Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles. The Red Sox lost Jacoby Ellsbury and Jerrod Saltalamacchia, while the Orioles gained Nelson Cruz and David Lough.

The club that finished tied last year with Baltimore, the Tampa Bay Rays, are looking 85ish in the win column based on 2013 WAR value, but we all know better than to believe the Rays won't be there at the end.

A more interesting case is the New York Yankees, who gave up on their grand plan to come in below the $189 million luxury tax threshold by signing free agents Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran as major league free agents. With all that, the Yankees still have a relatively small amount of 2013 WAR value, but that doesn't take into account the signing of Japanese right hander Masahiro Tanaka.

Again, the AL East appears to be the strongest of the divisions from top to bottom. The worst team here, the Toronto Blue Jays, would be a third- or fourth-place club anywhere else.

Following is a list of each team in the division, giving each club's "top half" position players by 2013 WAR, its "second-level" position players, its top-level pitchers and second-level pitchers. For the top-half position players, we give the player's position and where he ranked at the position across big league baseball in 2013 WAR, then the actual WAR value for the player. For every other category, we give the player's overall 2013 WAR ranking, understanding that pitchers and position players are ranked separately.

More about all of this, including some important clarifications, can be found here. Bear in mind, though, that the 2013 WAR totals for each club only include these top players, and every club will have players with little, no or negative WAR value that actually would drag down its totals.

Boston Red Sox (49.1 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 1B: Mike Napoli, 8, 4.1; 2B: Dustin Pedroia, 2, 6.5; RF: Shane Victorino, 1, 6.1; LF: Daniel Nava, 7, 2.9; DH: David Ortiz, 1, 4.4. Totals: five players, 24.2 WAR.

Second-level players — A.J. Pierzynski, 164; 1.6. Mike Carp, 185; 1.3. Jonny Gomes, 190, 1.2; David Ross, 244, 0.7. Totals: four players, 4.8 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Clay Buchholz, 20, 4.3; Koji Uehara, 30, 3.6; Jon Lester, 48, 3.0; John Lackey, 56, 2.8. Craig Breslow, 116, 1.6. Totals: five pitchers, 15.3 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Edward Mujica, 123, 1.5; Jake Peavy, 131, 1.4; Junichi Tazawa, 179, 1.0; Felix Doubront, 190, 0.9. Totals: four pitchers, 4.8 WAR.

By 2013 WAR, the Red Sox have two players — right fielder Victorino and designated hitter Ortiz — who were the best across the big leagues at their positions. Reliever Uehara finished with the highest WAR among all Major League relief pitchers. Second baseman Pedroia was No. 2 across the majors.

It's easy to see how the Red Sox could have won the World Championship — and did. The Red Sox also have a firm No. 1 starter in Buchholz, while Lester and Lackey both were No. 2 starters by WAR. Very nice club, across the board.

Baltimore Orioles (44.1 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 1B: Chris Davis, 4, 6.4; SS: J.J. Hardy, 6, 3.7; 3B: Manny Machado, 3, 6.5; CF: Adam Jones, 7, 4.4; LF: David Lough, 8, 2.7. Totals: five players, 23.7 WAR.

Second-level players — Nelson Cruz, 140, 2.0; Ryan Flaherty, 208; 1.0. Totals: two players, 3.0 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Chris Tillman, 18, 4.4; Ubaldo Jimenez, 58, 2.7; Darren O'Day, 85, 2.1; Miguel Gonzalez, 86, 2.0; Bud Norris, 86, 2.0; Tommy Hunter, 88, 2.0. Totals: six players, 15.3 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Ryan Webb, 161, 1.2; Brian Matusz, 214, 0.7. Totals: two pitchers, 1.9 WAR.

The Orioles' late free-agent signing of Cruz for $8 million not only was the steal of the offseason, but he gives depth to an every day lineup that would be lacking without him. Cruz looms especially large with Machado missing the early portions of the season.

The Orioles also made a needed late free-agent signing in Jimenez, without whom they wouldn't have a real No. 2 starter according to 2013 WAR. O'Day and Hunter both hit good WAR totals as relievers in 2013, but it remains to be seen how Hunter will fare as the club's closer.

Tampa Bay Rays (37.9 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 1B: James Loney, 13, 2.7; 2B: Ben Zobrist, 4, 5.1; SS: Yunel Escobar, 9, 3.3; 3B: Evan Longoria, 4, 6.3. Totals: four players, 17.1 WAR.

Second-level position players — Desmond Jennings, 85, 3.0; Wil Myers, 143, 2.0; David DeJesus, 170, 1.5; Jose Lobaton, 174, 1.4; Matthew  Joyce, 191, 1.2; Jayson Nix, 223, 0.8. Totals: six players, 7.9 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Alex Cobb, 24, 4.0; David Price, 54, 2.8; Matt Moore, 62, 2.6; Chris Archer, 76, 2.2. Totals: four pitchers, 10.6 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Grant Balfour, 139, 1.4; Erik Bedard, 193, 0.9. Totals: two pitchers, 2.3 WAR.

The overall WAR totals from 2013 aren't great, but the Rays do have 10 position players ranking this high, against eight for an average club. So, there's depth in this everyday lineup.

The pitching staff lines up with four starters who slot in one through four, and Balfour passes as a quality closer by 2013 WAR. The rest of the bullpen is a puzzle, but it's always a puzzle for this club and manager Joe Maddon always puts it together.

New York Yankees (34.1 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — RF: Carlos Beltran, 13, 2.4; CF: Jacoby Ellsbury, 5, 5.8; Brett Gardner, 9, 4.2; LF: Alfonso Soriano, 13, 2.4; C: Brian McCann, 14, 2.2. Totals: five players, 17.0 WAR.

Second-level position players — Ichiro Suzuki, 172, 1.4; Kelly Johnson, 182, 1.3; Francisco Cervelli, 221, 0.8; Brian Roberts, 241, 0.7. Totals: four players, 4.2 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Hiroki Kuroda, 22, 4.1; Ivan Nova, 31, 3.5; David Robertson, 68, 2.4. Totals: three pitchers, 10.0 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Adam Warren, 160, 1.2; Vidal Nuno, 211, 0.7. Totals: two pitchers, 2.9 WAR.

As an indication of how little the Yankees had going offensively last year, three of the players listed here (Beltran, Ellsbury and McCann) weren't with the club at all, and Soriano was only with the club for the last couple months of 2013. The Yankees lost Robinson Cano's star power and big production, but they now have more bats throughout the lineup.

The factor not accounted for here on the pitching staff, of course, is Tanaka. If he's for real, this might add up to a nice club. If not, then the Yankees will struggle to make the playoffs out of this very deep division.

Toronto Blue Jays (32.8 in 2013 WAR) 

Top-half position players — 1B: Edwin Encarnacion, 9, 4.0; SS: Jose Reyes, 13, 2.6; RF: Jose Bautista, 7, 4.1; CF: Colby Rasmus, 6, 4.8; C. Dioner Navarro, 15, 2.0. Totals: five players, 17.5 WAR.

Second-level position players — Adam Lind, 148, 1.9; Ryan Goins, 176, 1.4; Munenori Kawasaki, 185, 1.3; Moises Sierra, 240, 0.7. Totals: four players, 5.3 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Mark Buehrle, 84, 2.1; R.A. Dickey, 91, 2.0. Totals: two pitchers, 4.1 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Aaron Loup, 122, 1.5; Casey Janssen, 139, 1.4; Brett Cecil, 152, 1.3; Santiago Casilla, 176, 1.1; Steve Delabar, 229, 0.6. Totals: Five pitchers, 5.9 WAR.

Hard to believe, but the best player at any position for this club, based on 2013 WAR, is Rasmus in center field. A full season from Reyes at shortstop would certainly push him well up in the ratings.

The pitching was a huge disappointment last season, with only Buehrle and Dickey making it into the top level of these rankings. And Buehrle added up as barely a No. 2 starter, while Dickey added up to a No. 3 by 2013 WAR. This club didn't really have an ace, and probably still doesn't.

How else are they going to find them?

At first, one thought the Dodgers were making a move just for the sake of making a splash when they took three huge contracts off the hands of the Boston Red Sox. But when you look at the kind of talent that might be available in free agency for the next couple years, that trade and the Hanley Ramirez deal make a lot of sense.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

With their audacious reaches for trades, the new Dodgers owners are bidding for the love of their fans. But you know who loves 'em already? The owners of the Florida Marlins and Boston Red Sox. One suspects there will be others.

Two clubs have dusted their hands of major contract problems, thanks to Guggenheim Baseball. The Dodgers have become speculators in bloated contracts, and if it doesn't work out well in the end for the Dodgers, you can already say it's worked out great for the Marlins and Red Sox.

In total, the Dodgers have unburdened the Red Sox and Marlins of $311 million in outstanding contracts, the pro-rated portion of this season included. The Red Sox are feeling $273 million of relief after the Dodgers took Adrian Gonzalez (owed $131 million through 2018), Carl Crawford (owed $107 million through 2017) and Josh Beckett (owed $35 million through 2014). A month earlier, the Dodgers took Hanley Ramirez and $38 million through 2014 off the Marlins payroll.

In those deals, the Dodgers also received Nick Punto and Randy Choate. In those deals, the Dodgers gave up Nathan Eovaldi, James Loney, Allen Webster, Ivan DeJesus, Scott McGough and two players to be named, including Rubby De La Rosa.

It can't work out badly for the Dodgers, and it might even be the best this club can do for itself for a long time. It can't work out badly because the Dodgers have money to burn. They can afford some mistakes. And it's probably the best the Dodgers can do for a long time because ... look at the free agent lists.

The free agent roll this winter features no one like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder or C.J. Wilson. Everyone who makes the star test -- Robinson Cano, David Wright, Curtis Granderson -- has an attractive club option for 2013.

Jake Peavy will be out there. He has one of the most hilarious provisions ever placed in a contract -- a $22 million club option for 2013. Like there was ever a chance the club would pick that up. He's a real good pitcher, though. Next, you might look at Jose Valverde, a fine closer for the last six years, picking up a fair number of Cy Young and MVP votes here and there. His numbers are down this year, particularly his strikeouts, but he puts on a show. If he's on, Dodgers fans would love him.

That's kind of where the free agent list leads. The pickings are slim.  The next possibility one imagines comes from way out of left field: Mariano Rivera. He's 43 now, he will be coming back from ACL surgery, and he is not under contract with the Yankees for 2013. Remember, he was going to retire after this year, but he has vowed that he will not go down that way. You want a star? That's a star. And if talks for 2013 are going a little slow between Rivera and the Yankees, are the Dodgers audacious enough to make a move?

No wonder Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti said this to reporters at the trade announcement: "July and August may have been our free agency." One might think he meant it was the Dodgers free agent season for 2012. But it's probably their free agent season for 2013, as well, because that free agent class is nothing. And forget about 2014, which is an even worse class. Your best players there are Nelson Cruz and Hunter Pence, No. 6 hitters on a good team. A 30-year-old Tim Lincecum is on the list, but it's anyone's guess what his value will be at that point.

Viewed against this backdrop, these recent Dodgers trades aren't merely bold, nor are they as wacky as one might first think. They make a lot of sense.

The Dodgers are acquiring the very best players that are available, period. Their problem isn't that they have money to burn and they're burning it. Their problem is that they have money to burn and there is no other way for them to use that money on top-drawer players than the way we have seen them do it. Namely, by relieving other clubs of contracts that they don't want.

It's not an entirely new strategy. During his years as the general manager in St. Louis, Walt Jocketty picked up Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen when their old clubs were fine with seeing them go. If a player and his club aren't seeing eye-to-eye, that doesn't mean the guy can't play.

These days, it isn't even that personal. The magnitude of a player's contract makes him expendable. Can you imagine the flash that went before the eyes of Red Sox executives when they realized that the Dodgers would really take these contracts off their hands? This was a once-in-a-freak-lifetime opportunity. The Red Sox took almost nothing. It was very sly of the Dodgers to include James Loney.

Every club out there has a contract or two that has the general manager walking the floor at night. Now they have relief. The Dodgers will take your contract that you no longer want, if they want that player. It's the only way they're going to find big league players.

For now. The team president, Stan Kasten, emphasized that the organization won't be where he wants it until the Dodgers are producing a steady stream of players, homegrown stars, Dodger players playing for the Dodgers. That's the ideal.

Player development has always been the true pride of the baseball operation, though, until not long ago, it happened in the shadows. Now, the fans are involved, and they love to talk about the up-and-coming talent. It's safe to say these new owners care a great deal about how they are perceived, and they know there is a lot more to be gained by creating talent than by writing checks to free agents.

Fortunately, for the Dodgers, it's not a matter of cost effectiveness like it is in smaller markets. It's a matter of creating the right kind of baseball culture, and the kind of teams that are really intimate with the fans. It's going to take years. The Dodgers didn't have a lot happening before the trades, and now the pipeline seems next to bare. But they can afford to buy their players until they start piping in their own guys.

In the meantime, love the pyrotechnics as the Dodgers lay out to win now. It is to be hoped that the baseball will be as interesting as the trades.

Dodger hitting woes part players, part lineup

The Dodgers are back in Dodger Stadium Thursday after a dreadful trip along the West Coast. They're not hitting left-handed pitchers, and they're not hitting right-handed pitchers. After being shut out three straight in San Francisco this week, the Dodgers and Giants now are tied for the National League West lead.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

On the radio about three weeks ago, Vin Scully was on one of his favorite on-air topics, the San Francisco Giants. On that particular night, Giants right hander Tim Lincecum struggled again, prompting Scully to point out that it's quite hard to view the Giants as a threat to the Dodgers unless Lincecum gets himself straightened out.

On that night, the Dodgers were in that five-game lead they nursed for most of the last month. We agree with Vin. How can we expect the Giants to overtake the Dodgers if Lincecum isn't pitching effectively?

Wednesday afternoon at Pac Bell Park in San Francisco, Lincecum threw seven shutout innings at the Dodgers, allowing four hits, striking out eight and walking two. The Giants won, 3-0, shutting out the Dodgers for the third straight time as the blue ones endured one of the very worst weeks in their very long history. It means the Giants now are tied with the Dodgers for first place in the National League West.

Does it mean Lincecum is straightened out? Lincecum now has pitched 12 straight shutout innings, but they all came against the Dodgers and Oakland. Time will tell. And we still agree with Vin: The Giants won't win the division without straightening out Lincecum. That just seems to be a necessary condition.

With the win Wednesday, Lincecum is 3-8 with a 5.60 ERA. With the loss Wednesday, the Dodgers lost eight of nine on their trip through Oakland, Anaheim and San Francisco. They scored 13 runs in the nine games. So, Lincecum didn't do any better against the Dodgers than Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito in the previous two days. The Dodgers didn't even face Matt Cain and they still were shut out three times by the Giants.

Nor did Lincecum pitch much better against the Dodgers than Oakland's Travis Blackley, Tommy Milone and Brandon McCarthy earlier on the road trip. Teams all over the Eastern Time Zone face these nine- or ten-game West Coast trips with dread that they will work out the way this one went for the Dodgers. But the Dodgers shouldn't be having this problem. They're a West Coast team.

The Dodgers have two problems right now: They can't hit left-handed pitchers and they can't hit right-handed pitchers. Both problems have the same root: Without Matt Kemp in the lineup, the Dodgers don't have enough right-handed sock in their lineup to produce the two- and three-run moments they need to turn games their way.

Against left-handed pitching, we have no idea how Dodgers manager Don Mattingly should proceed, because they have not a single right-handed hitter on their club right now who you could write in at the beginning of the season as a productive starting player. You might count catcher A.J. Ellis now, but he is a catcher and we don't know how he will hold up.

Here is the combined line for the last four left-handed starters against the Dodgers (Jose Quintana of the Chicago White Sox, followed by Milone, Blackley and Zito): 32 innings, 14 hits, two runs, both earned, four walks and 18 strikeouts.

So, that's that for the Dodgers against left-handed pitching. They just don't have enough right-handed hitting to compete on a major league level right now. You lose Kemp, the best lefty killer in the game, and that happens. But it's also on the Dodgers general manager, Ned Colletti, whose job it is to stock the team with weapons for his manager. It's simply not reasonable to expect any big league manager to beat left-handed pitching with this roster. It's not that people like Juan Rivera and Jerry Hairston are bad players. But they are supporting players. The Dodgers need another real deal, right-handed bat.

Against right-handed pitchers, the Dodgers are every bit as punchless in the last couple weeks, and we're putting that one on Mattingly, because it is his job to know a good thing when he sees it, and he appears to have missed one here. Every day before the Dodgers face a right hander, we look at the lineup and simply can't believe what Mattingly is doing. Then the Dodgers score two runs or one run or no runs, and we end up blaming the hitters.

Remember all the magic at Dodger Stadium during the second half of May, when Kemp went on the disabled list and the Dodgers kept winning anyway? That wasn't magic. It was a solid, successful approach to beating on right-handed pitching, and Mattingly has all but abandoned it, for reasons that only he knows.

On May 17, a couple days after Kemp went on the disabled list the first time, the Dodgers embarked on a run of eight wins in ten games to reach their high point of the season -- 32-15 with a 7 1/2-game lead in the division. In six of those games, all wins against right-handed pitching, Mattingly stacked his left-handed hitting, with Bobby Abreu, Andre Ethier, Adam Kennedy and James Loney going third through sixth, followed by Ellis, a right-handed hitter well suited for the seven hole.

The Dodgers won all of those games, scoring at least six runs every time and totaling 40 runs. Aside from Ethier, the hitters named in that core aren't especially fearsome. But the constant procession of left-handed hitters seemed to break opposing pitchers apart. That's kind of the point. It's not that the hitters, themselves, are so fabulous, as that the cumulative platoon advantage takes a toll on the pitcher. We have discussed these lineups at length here and here.

Mattingly went back to stacking the left-handed hitters against right-handed pitchers on June 2 at Colorado. Same kind of result, a 6-2 win. Mattingly hasn't stacked his lineup in the manner described since then. Now, they're 3-9 against their last 12 opposing right-handed pitchers.

So, the stack of left-handed hitters is 7-0 and we haven't seen it in nearly a month. Since the Dodgers returned to the West Coast from Philadelphia on June 8, they're 6-12. The stacked lineup is nowhere to be found.

It's perplexing. The Dodgers' problem against left-handed pitchers is that they don't have the right-handed hitting to beat them. But, then, Mattingly seems to think that the way to beat right-handed pitchers is to stick one of these right-handed bats in the middle of his left-handed hitters.

But that approach doesn't work. The approach that works against right-handed pitchers is to stack the left-handed hitters. Let's hope Mattingly finds it again. And soon.

The Dodgers are back home Thursday night for four against the New York Mets and three against Cincinnati Reds. They return to town tied for first place. How will they leave it?

With left approach, Dodgers can solve righties

Matt Kemp is injured again, and the Dodgers were starting to lose their grip against right-handed pitching even before Kemp returned from the disabled list the first time. However, the Dodgers have demonstrated an approach to right handers that works. The question is whether they will go back to it.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers reached their first three-game losing streak of the season Wednesday night, the same night Matt Kemp's hamstring gave out again following a one-day return.

You might say this is the low point of the Dodgers season. Some low point -- first place, 5 1/2-game lead, best record in baseball. But the low points can plumb much lower, and this is precisely what is feared most in blue heaven.

As we endure the horror of this three-game losing streak, we look back on happier times, when the results were so satisfying despite a very long disabled list that has included Kemp, Jerry Hairston, Juan Rivera, Juan Uribe, Mark Lewis and Ted Lilly. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly somehow held the house together by his mode of tinkering that looks in one light like drawing names from a hat and looks in another light like interesting development.

But even before Kemp's brief return from the disabled list, it appeared this club's offensive foundation was cracking. The one attribute the Dodgers had demonstrated, with or without Kemp, was the ability to beat right-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers won 20 of their first 25 games against right-handed starters. Since then, though, the Dodgers have lost four of their last five against right-handed starters.

This three-game losing streak is all against right-handed starters. A week ago, it was almost inconceivable that the Dodgers couldn't tack up six runs against most of the world's right handers. Then, just like that, they're being taken to the woodshed by Lucas Harrell and Michael Fiers.

About a week ago, our fascination with how Mattingly transformed the batting order without Kemp led to an analysis of the new lineup against right-handed pitching as a core and a shell. The core was four left-handed batters consecutively -- Bobby Abreu, Andre Ethier, Adam Kennedy and James Loney -- followed by A.J. Ellis in the seven hole. The results were rather impressive.

This particular core has taken six starts against right handers since Kemp first went on the disabled list. That lineup's output: six wins and 40 runs, nearly seven per game. The details of the core's first four games are discussed here. The hitters in the core, within the six games, are hitting .350 (40 for 114) with 22 runs and 20 RBI.

The core played its fifth game together on May 22 at Arizona. The Dodgers won, 8-7. Not a spectacular night for the core, which went five for 17, but it produced runs with just the right amount of tapping. For example, Mattingly decided in the seventh inning of that game, with the bases loaded, to pinch hit for Kennedy with Ivan DeJesus. The last time the Dodgers faced a right-handed starter, Mattingly took down Kennedy for Scott Van Slyke against a left-handed reliever in the sixth inning and Van Slyke hit a three-run homer to beat St. Louis, 6-5. This time, DeJesus hit a sacrifice fly in his pinch at-bat, then won the game in the ninth with a two-run double. Another golden victory.

Then, as always, the dynamics of the club changed. As a most welcomed development, Jerry Hairston returned from the disabled list, and, naturally, the manager wants him in the lineup. And you certainly aren't thinking that the reason your lineup bashes right-handed starters is because you have Adam Kennedy at third base in the No. 5 hole. It's seeming at this point like every time you pinch hit for Kennedy, you score three runs.

So, Hairston goes into the lineup against the next right hander, batting fifth at third base, on May 25. Hairston did fine -- one for three with a walk and an RBI. But the lineup, which was otherwise unchanged, laid an egg. The core was only three for 14 and the shell (the bottom two and top two slots in the order) was four for 18. The Dodgers lost, 3-1, to Houston and Harrell.

OK. So, let's go back to the core with Kennedy included on May 26, with the Astros tossing right hander Bud Norris at Dodger Stadium. And it's another winning performance by the core with four straight left-handed hitters. The core went seven for 19 with four runs, four RBI and a homer. The Astros won, 6-3, on Ellis's three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth.

Monday night, against Milwaukee and Shaun Marcum at Dodger Stadium, Mattingly went back to the version of the core that broke up the left-handed hitters by batting Hairston fifth. The core did a less productive job -- seven for 22  with only one run and two RBI. Again, Hairston was fine -- two for three with an RBI and a walk. But the lineup was terrible. The shell, in particular, finished the night one for 16 with a run and nine strikeouts. The Dodgers lost, 3-2.

The last two nights, with Kemp in the starting lineup, Mattingly has tried some other combinations, including an order Wednesday night that had Loney batting second against Yovanni Gallardo. The Dodgers lost again, 6-3, their fourth loss in five games against a right-handed starting pitcher.

Now, with Kemp back on the shelf for a while, the Dodgers are scuffling all of a sudden, but they need not scuffle too much. At least, we know they have a productive approach with what they have against right handers. The problem with that approach is that lining up four consecutive left-handed hitters clashes with getting Hairston into the lineup at third base.

Look what's happened here. All the manager did was take Adam Kennedy out of the lineup against right handers and put Jerry Hairston in his place. Hairston produced, added value to the lineup, yet, the lineup tanked. Kennedy was nothing special in that slot, just six for 22 (.273) inflated by one four-for-four game. As No. 5, Kennedy drove in just two runs in six games. Hairston matched that in two games.

It doesn't add up. Then, again, it's not supposed to add up. Lineups aren't the sort of things that add up, like ledgers, balance sheets and math problems. Lineups either work or they don't. We might say of a successful balance sheet that it adds up. We say of a successful lineup that it works.

And when something works, you keep working it until it doesn't work anymore, or until you no longer must work it. In times of widespread injury, baseball management operates by the seat of its pants. Long-run statistical samples about this or that player or combination are not here to help. You need to win a game today. You’re past seeking the best probability. You’re down to your best chance, period. It’s good to know that something works.

Here's a tidbit about Loney as the last lefty: In the six games in which Loney batted sixth, right behind Kennedy, in the order against right-handed pitchers, Loney batted .385 (10 for 26) with a .928 OPS. Coincidence? No. Just an indication of how deep that lineup runs against right-handed starters.

But maybe Loney as the fourth consecutive left-handed hitter against a right-handed starter is quite better than the guy we normally see, and if there are reasons why stacking left-handed bats has worked so well, that might be one of them. So, here is a vote to going back to stacking a core of left-handed hitters  against right handed starters. Let’s test that out a little more.

And if you're worried that four straight left-handed hitters will be easy pickings for the other guy's left-handed reliever in the seventh inning, don't be. The left-handed hitters in that Dodgers core are seven for 12 against the first left-handed reliever during those six games.

The shell of that Dodgers lineup against right handers now is on its third iteration, since Mattingly relented and wrote in Dee Gordon as the No. 8 hitter for the May 22 game at Arizona. Here is how Gordon has responded in eight games at No. 8: 10 for 28 (.357 average) with a .400 on-base and a .793 OPS. He has walked a couple times, stolen a couple bases and scored four runs.

With Ellis batting right in front of Gordon, you now have two ways to start the offense from the bottom of the order, because Ellis knows how to get on and Gordon can do damage when he's on. If Gordon starts your inning by reaching, he can steal second, your pitcher can bunt him to third and you score on a sacrifice fly, at worst.

Then, we come around to the leadoff hitter, who has typically been Tony Gwynn against right handers. In his games leading off against righties for the last two weeks, Gwynn is nine for 33 (.273) with five runs and six RBI. Following Gwynn is Elian Herrera, who has 15 strikeouts and 14 hits, but he's also batting .292.

Submitted for your approval, then, is a modest proposal for how the Dodgers should arrange their batting order against right-handed pitching.

First, drop Gwynn from the lead off position and put him in the five hole. Then, put Hairston in the leadoff spot at third base. Playing the game in such a tough, engaging way, Hairston sets a good tone to begin the game for the Dodgers. He knows how to take a pitch and navigate the bases. Follow Hairston with second baseman Herrera, a switch hitter with speed.

After Herrera, march up the core, four straight left-handed hitters -- it actually becomes five straight left-handed hitters because Herrera switches. We'll call the proposed core Abreu in left, Ethier in right, Gwynn in center and Loney at first. After that, it's Ellis batting seventh and catching, followed by Gordon eighth at short, then the pitcher. If Ellis is on or Gordon has something working on the bases when the leadoff man comes up, then you're back to Hairston, who can hit line drives.

This obviously isn’t an everyday lineup, and we haven’t begun to consider how the Dodgers might attack left-handed starters. However, there is enough here, perhaps, to illustrate that the Dodgers ought to hold their own against right handers as they weather the newest storms.

Minus Kemp, Dodgers not down vs. right handers

With Matt Kemp joining the Dodgers' disabled list, the club looked to be in trouble. But manager Don Mattingly has pieced together a productive lineup against right-handed pitching, and the Dodgers only figure to see three troublesome lefties in a 14-game stretch.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

With four players from the Dodgers opening day lineup sitting on the disabled list, Don Mattingly has resorted to managing. Heck, he's the only guy still around who isn't hurt. He has to do something.

Mattingly is left with a cast of old guys, rookies and veteran role players, almost none of whom profiles as an everyday performer at this moment. Thus, an everyday lineup with this group is out of the question. Mattingly has two names that will be in the lineup every day until some other players return -- Andre Ethier and A.J. Ellis. Let's just say it: barring further injury. Everything else is up for grabs.

But the Dodgers keep winning, anyway. They’re up to 28-13 now, the best record in the game, coming off nine wins in their last 11 home games. Just looking at the Dodgers active roster at the moment, it’s hard to see any buttons for Mattingly to push, but he keeps finding a few and they keep opening up the scoreboard.

The most obvious way to view Mattingly's task is to consider two different kinds of adversary -- left-handed pitchers and right-handed pitchers. When last we checked on the Dodgers, their temporary lineups against left handers shaped up as a problem. In the Dodgers’ last four games, though, their lineup against right-handed starters has been a fascinating development -- and productive, too, cranking out at least six runs in each game.

The lineup against right handers might be divided into two parts. Off the top of our head, we'll call them the core and the shell. The core of the lineup has been constant through the last four games, all of them wins against opposing right-handed starters. It starts with Bobby Abreu batting third in left field, followed, in order, by Andre Ethier in right, Adam Kennedy at third base, James Loney at first and A.J. Ellis catching.

After batting Ellis fifth to break up his left-handed hitters earlier in the week against Arizona right hander Ian Kennedy, Mattingly has moved Ellis to seventh, which lines up four lefties -- Abreu through Loney -- all in a row. The effect on right-handed starters has been startling.

The hitters in the core are 29 for 78 (.372) with 18 runs and 14 RBI in the last four games, through May 20. The Dodgers had 20 offensive innings in which the core hitters were at least half of the hitters who batted. In those 20 innings, the Dodgers scored 14 times for 25 runs.

With that core of veteran left-handed hitters, one coming right after another, the Dodgers are scoring more and at least as consistently as they scored with Matt Kemp in the lineup. Remember, though, this is only against right-handed starting pitchers. Which raises the obvious objection to Mattingly's core; to wit, doesn't he play into the hands of the opposing manager by lining up his left-handed hitters that way? Now, the other side can shut down your core in the seventh with one left-handed reliever, then that core has to deal with the closer in the ninth. One response for Mattingly might be to march up right-handed hitters against the lefty reliever.

But Mattingly doesn't take the bait. By bringing up right-handed pinch hitting that early, he would cook his bench and leave himself without left-handed hitting after the other guys run out of left-handed pitching. If the other side has a good left-handed closer, you might look at it differently. Otherwise,  Mattingly is keeping his left-handed core together, at least through the seventh inning. And that core has responded by scoring against those left-handed relievers. The left-handed hitters in that core are five for nine against lefties in the last four games. In those games, the core has come up for three innings against left handers and the Dodgers scored every time for a total of six runs.

Mattingly will replace Abreu defensively late in games and he'll rest a top guy or two for a couple innings if the Dodgers are winning big. But he likes to leave the left handers in there against a wave of left-handed relief. The hitters have made that the correct decision. Except when Mattingly decides otherwise, and that becomes a correct decision, too.

The Dodgers trailed St. Louis, 5-2, as they batted in the bottom of the seventh Sunday night at Dodger Stadium. The inning began at the top of the order with Tony Gwynn flying out and Elian Herrera singling against Victor Marte. With the four left-handed hitters due up, the Cardinals brought in their left hander, Mark Rzepczynski. True to form, Mattingly stuck with his lefties, who touched up the same guy for a run two nights earlier. This time, Abreu singled Herrera to second, then Ethier struck out.

In the last four days, to this point, Mattingly had not one time taken down a left-handed hitter from that core in favor of a right-handed bat against the first left-handed reliever of the game. The left-handed hitters were validating that approach. But now, all of a sudden, Mattingly changed course, taking down Kennedy for Scott Van Slyke. Kennedy was five for his last 10, including a hit and a walk in his last two ups against left handers. Van Slyke had appeared in five of the last six games without a hit to show for it. Zero for six. So, just to see what happens? Van Slyke hit his first big league homer, a game-winning three-run bomb for a 6-5 Dodgers win.

The shell of the order is the bottom two spots and the top two spots in the lineup. As the lineup begins linear and ends cyclical, the top and the bottom of the order become a shell that surrounds the core. This shell is rather delicate. To this section, Mattingly has deferred all his new problems. The guys in the core are all there to make themselves comfortable and hit. All the mixing and matching takes place in the shell.

Two of the positions to be covered in the shell are injury replacements for Matt Kemp and Mark Ellis. Another position in here is the pitcher, which means you're probably going to give up an out for a base. Next up is leadoff, which has normally meant Dee Gordon. But after you've spent a bunt to put a runner in scoring position with one or two out, you want somebody up there who might drive the ball. So many problems.

In the last four games, Mattingly has used two different shells, the difference coming about after the injury to Mark Ellis. The second shell included Herrera, excluded Gordon and put Gwynn at the top of the order. Justin Sellars at shortstop batted eight in the second arrangement. The first shell no longer is optional because of the injury to Ellis, so we are left with the second.

The newer operation went nine for 32, scoring five runs and driving in three in two games Saturday and Sunday nights against the Cardinals. The hitters within this second shell took at least half of the at-bats in five different innings and the Dodgers scored in only one of them, a four-run seventh on Saturday that ran through eight hitters. There was another inning in which Herrera singled with one out and scored after singles by Abreu and Ethier. That's a core inning.

Looking at the Dodgers batting order as this shell and core, Herrera becomes a transitional figure between them in the two hole. As 27-year-old rookie with eight years in the minor leagues, he's suitable as the last hitter in the shell. As a switch hitter with speed batting in front of the left-handed core, he has a chance to trigger some offense. Herrera's minor league numbers say he's been a pretty reliable .360 on-base guy for the last five years, and he's been stealing about 35-40 bags per year at a 75 percent success rate.

Just as Herrera could be a suitable transitional hitter between the shell and the core at the top of the lineup, A.J. Ellis is the right fit for putting the core with the shell at the bottom. Batting seventh, Ellis can lead off for the shell and put a man on, as his on-base percentage is third across the NL at .446. Or, he can clean up for the core and get a man in, driving in eight runs in as many games since moving up from No. 8.

Flaws and all, you might say the Dodgers' temporary order against right handers is a well-enough wrought urn. The Dodgers seem to have that much of it solved while the big guys are away. They haven't lost to a right hander since Kemp went on the DL. But left handers are another story, and it could be a grim story, but the Dodgers might luck through it.

Mattingly has mentioned that the Dodgers weren't great against left handers even before the injuries. It's true that the Dodgers weren't as good against lefties as against righties. But they were 9-6 in games started by left handers before Kemp's injury. Kemp leads the National League with a .486 batting average against left handers. They were doing fine.

Since Kemp's injury, Mattingly has tried two different lineups against lefties. The Dodgers lost both games, scoring a total of three runs. The first of those lineups, which scored only one run, was discussed in an earlier piece. The next time out against a left hander, Mattingly benched Loney and Gordon, along with the two Ellises. His right-handed hitters that night were Herrera, Jerry Sands, Sellers and Matt Treanor. The Padres won, 4-2, behind Clayton Richard.

So, the Dodgers do have a problem against left-handed starters. However, they also have a lot going for them. In addition to being able to fight through these injuries largely at home, they have stumbled upon a stretch of the season during which they're likely to see only three lefties in a stretch of 14 games, just when we've figured out that left-handed pitchers are going to a problem.

The Dodgers will face Patrick Corbin and Joe Saunders during the next three days in Arizona. Then, they catch a break when Houston comes to Dodger Stadium this weekend, because the Astros are using lefties Wandy Rodriguez and J.A. Happ this week against the Cubs (who are 1-6 against left-handed starters). The Dodgers will miss them. Then, Milwaukee comes to town with only one left-handed starter, old friend Randy Wolf.

Left-handers take about 30 percent of the starts in the National League, so facing only three in a 14-game span during Kemp's injury might end up being worth a couple for the Dodgers. Timing is everything.

How much more time before Kemp returns? The Dodgers are shooting for May 29, the day he is eligible to come off the DL.

Dodgers could be in big trouble against lefties

Before this week, the Dodgers were 6-1 at home against left handed starters. Then they put four right-handed hitters, including Matt Kemp, on the disabled list. Let's just say the new right-handed batting order isn't as good.


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers placed Matt Kemp on the disabled list Monday. He wasn't the same since slightly pulling a hamstring in Chicago on May 5.

Since then, Kemp was four for 20 with one walk and one RBI. Subtract one freak three-for-four game from the mix, and it becomes one for 16. The Dodgers had to do it, and now is the time to do it. The Dodgers will be at home for most of those 15 days. Long term, they need Kemp running.

Short term, the problems for the Dodgers run deeper than trying to paper over Kemp's absence. Their further problem is that the resources they would count on to cover for Kemp also are on the disabled list. None is expected to be back before Kemp.

The Dodgers put Juan Uribe on the DL Sunday because of soreness in his left wrist. They put Juan Rivera on there Sunday with a ruptured hamstring. Jerry Hairston has been on the disabled list since May 11 because of a strained hamstring.

You can imagine that Dodgers manager Don Mattingly is hamstrung. In place of four key right-handed hitters, he now has Elian Herrera, Justin Sellers, Jerry Sands and Scott Van Slyke. It would seem that the manager has quite a juggling act to do for the next two weeks.

Sunday afternoon, Mattingly moved catcher A.J. Ellis up to the sixth spot. Given a chance to drive runners home, Ellis notched four RBI, including a three-run homer just when it seemed like the Dodgers wouldn't score again because Kemp was on the bench and Andre Ethier had just been ejected.

A couple reporters asked Mattingly about keeping Ellis up as high as sixth in the order, instead of the No. 8 position where he has been so effective. It really was the least of Mattingly's concerns. Let's see who else is in the lineup first. Monday evening's lineup included Ellis in the No. 5 position. Unless Ellis slumps, we won't see him at No. 8 for a long time.

Before this week, the Dodgers offense operated on one big bang principle: Mark Ellis, followed by Kemp, followed by Ethier. Through Monday, that singularity high in the order scored a combined 75 runs -- almost exactly half of the club's 154 total runs. With Kemp missing from the middle of that cocktail, the Dodgers will really struggle to score.

Mattingly doesn't have a lot left on which to depend. He has to be frustrated that Dee Gordon, with a .250 on-base percentage, is such an easy out. But Gordon has to be in there because his speed is one of their few offensive weapons. If he's having one of those days when he reaches base and the Dodgers pitcher is on, they can steal a win that way. We can assume that day will come against a right hander, because Gordon hits them a little. Gordon isn't winning the game of plate discipline against anybody, but he has a .299 career batting average against right-handed starters.

We can figure that Gordon will remain in the lead-off position. There's nowhere else to put him. You probably don't want him batting eighth. As Mattingly told reporters after the Dodgers beat Arizona, 3-1 Monday night, "Eight is harder than one." But now you're cooking your leadoff spot against left-handed starters, who have held Gordon to a .238 career on-base percentage in 122 plate appearances.

Following Gordon, there's no reason to move Mark Ellis from the No. 2 hole. The rest of the order, from No. 3 down, is where Mattingly's lineups will be very interesting for the next couple weeks.

Monday night, against Arizona right hander Ian Kennedy, Mattingly put left-handed Bobby Abreu in the third slot, followed by Andre Ethier in his regular cleanup position. A.J. Ellis batted fifth and first baseman James Loney batted sixth. Placing A.J. Ellis fifth allowed Mattingly to break up some left-handed hitters, which included everyone following Ellis -- Loney, third baseman Adam Kennedy and center fielder Tony Gwynn.

We could call it the "El" lineup -- all left-handed except for two players named Ellis. That doesn't make this lineup so unique, because the two players named Ellis will be in every optimal lineup. It is, however, about as left-handed as the Dodgers can get. Their bench would be all right-handed, except for the switch-hitting Herrera.

The lineup didn't score a lot, but it scored three different ways in a 3-1 win. The first run was Gordon singling, drawing a wild pickoff throw to take third, then crossing on a ground ball by Ellis. The second run was a homer by Ethier. The third was A.J. Ellis singling, taking third on Loney's single to center and crossing on Adam Kennedy's sacrifice fly. Two of the runs scored on outs.

Tuesday night, Arizona sent out a left hander, Wade Miley. The Dodgers lineup against Miley once again began with Gordon, followed by Mark Ellis. Ethier remained in the cleanup position, though he moved to center field. A.J. Ellis stayed at No. 5.

Moving Ethier to center enabled the Dodgers to play their two right-handed hitting call-ups, with Scott Van Slyke taking right field and Jerry Sands in left. Van Slyke batted third and Sands batted sixth. Loney batted seventh at first base and Justin Sellers batted eighth at third base.

If you're asking about the best and most right-handed lineup the Dodgers can put to a left hander, that's it. Maybe Herrera can rest Gordon against some of them. In that case, your bench is all left-handed, except for backup catcher Matt Treanor.

The obvious difference here is removing Gwynn and Abreu for Van Slyke and Sands. By flipping the lineup for left handers, the Dodgers change from a veteran lineup to an inexperienced lineup. We shouldn't be too surprised by nights like Tuesday, when the younger lineup produced ten hits, but the only run came on a solo homer by Mark Ellis. The Dodgers lost, 5-1.

The Dodgers couldn't hit in sequence, and it had a lot to do with the young outfielders. Van Slyke hit into two force outs, one with two down and a runner on third. He'll be a hero if he can mix in some doubles. He hit three balls hard through the middle, including a fly out to center. All three were outs.

The Dodgers minor league player of the year in 2011, Van Slyke made his first career start Tuesday in the No. 3 hole. No. 3 is a big responsibility. Mark Ellis, batting in front of Van Slyke, and Ethier and A.J. Ellis, batting behind him, were a combined six for 11 Tuesday night. Van Slyke, in the middle of all those hits, was zero for four.

Also, Sands followed three hits by Ethier and A.J. Ellis with outs. So, it wasn't a great night for the young right-handed hitters. It also shows, specifically, what the Dodgers are up against for the next couple weeks.

Entering Tuesday's game, the Dodgers were 6-1 at home against left-handed starters. But injuries have forced the Dodgers to go all the way down to prospects, greenhorns, to get important jobs done against left-handed pitching.

The resulting weaknesses also magnify the flaws that already were there, namely the fact that Gordon and Loney don't hit left handers. Loney has a career .663 OPS against lefties. When Matt Kemp is in the lineup, you're going to score against lefties, anyway. When he's missing, these become areas where you might start looking to improve offensive production.

So, half of the Dodgers most right-handed batting order is compromised -- Gordon and Loney because they're left-handed hitters who don't hit left handers, and Sands and Van Slyke because they are inexperienced, at best. The Dodgers need to find a way against left handers. The hope, as always, is that a young hitter like Sands and Van Slyke will seize the opportunity. The Dodgers are down to needing something like that, just for the next couple weeks.

PS: The Dodgers were to face another left hander, Clayton Richard, Wednesday afternoon in San Diego.

Way too easy to knock Dodgers 9-1 start

The Dodgers won nine of their first ten games, playing the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates. Is that a good sign? For the Dodgers, it's a very good sign.


By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in LA

Concerns about the quality of opposition have tempered euphoria about the Dodgers' 9-1 start. Should fans be giddy about beating the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates?

Depends on what makes you giddy. If you're happy with a playoff contender, any 9-1 start is a good sign. Only the playoffs compel your baseball club to defeat winning teams. During the regular season, winning teams win by defeating losing teams, which lose.

In 2011, the six clubs that won divisions held the six best records against losing clubs. The best was Milwaukee at 69-32. The worst was Detroit at 67-44. Of those six clubs, two held losing records against winning teams, one broke even against those teams and three finished with winning records against those clubs. The best was Philadelphia at 37-25. The worst was Milwaukee at 27-34.

Half of the 2011 playoff field failed to post winning records against winning teams – Arizona, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Texas. St. Louis (30-30 against clubs .500 and better) and Texas (35-37) played in the World Series.

If your team can win two out of three against the losers and just break even against the winners, it adds up to around 95 wins, which should be comfortably enough for a playoff berth. So, Dodgers fans should fear nothing from their 9-1 start against the Pirates and Padres. Neither club is very good, true, but neither is even approximately the worst in the National League. They still haven't gotten to the Houston Astros or Chicago Cubs.

Dodgers fans should take wins against losers as a good sign, for two reasons. First, the games are all weighted the same. The Dodgers receive no more "points" for beating winners than for beating losers.

Ask the Atlanta Braves. Last year, the Braves missed the playoffs by one game as the Cardinals overtook them for the wild card position. The Braves were 61-41 against losing teams and 28-32 against winning teams. But for two more wins against the Padres or Pirates, the Braves would have made the playoffs and history would be changed. The Braves finished a combined 8-7 against those clubs last year.

The other reason 9-1 is good news? It's early. Last year, the Dodgers were 37-51 through the Wednesday before the All-Star Game. From that point, they were 45-28. The difference was entirely in their results against losing clubs.

During those first 88 games, the Dodgers were 21-33 against losers. During the last 73 games, they were 28-8 against losers. Throw in this year's 9-1 and the Dodgers are a torrid 38-9 against losers from then to now.

Against winners, there was almost no difference. The Dodgers were 16-18 against winners during the first portion of 2011 and 17-20 against winners during the second portion.

Apparently, the Dodgers you see now are the Dodgers you missed while you were boycotting Frank McCourt last August, but not the Dodgers you missed while boycotting McCourt last April. In fact, the Dodgers were 14-3 against the Padres and Pirates during their winning portion of 2011, but 5-4 against them during the losing portion.

The difference between the early 2012 Dodgers and the late 2011 Dodgers is that early 2012 started the season with a clean slate, while late 2011 started 14 games below .500. As Dodgers Manager Don Mattingly told reporters after Sunday's game, everybody is fighting early in the season. It's not like you’re beating teams that have packed it in. These are all good wins.

If we're looking for problems with the Dodgers, they're easy enough to find. We might start by pointing out that only two guys are hitting – Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Maybe Kemp is hitting enough for two hitters right now – 39 at bats, 13 runs, six homers, 16 RBI, .487/.523/.1.026/1.548. NL Player of the Week three weeks running – the first two weeks of this year and the final week of last year. A great player on a hot streak carrying a team offensively. A sight to behold.

Kemp won't hit three homers per week through the entire season, so the Dodgers need to hear more from James Loney, Juan Uribe, Juan Rivera and Dee Gordon. But Ethier is giving Kemp good support right now, and that has been enough.

Is that because the Dodgers are playing Pittsburgh and San Diego?  Don't knock it. They count.