East League: Meet the Mets

The New York Mets are 10-3 after trying all comers in the National League East in the first two weeks of the season. The Mets, who lead the East League with their effort, will get their first crack at the rest of the East when they cross town to visit the New York Yankees later this week.

Alex Rodriguez is about the only many in the New York Yankees' lineup who is hitting right now. Which means ... (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

An evident danger of reading too much into the early standings is always the likelihood of some team doing remarkably well on a steady diet of one opponent.

But that's not what's happening with the New York Mets, who are off to a nice start, 10-3, after playing each of its National League East opponents for one series apiece. And we can guess that the Mets won't do much, if any, worse when it gets into American League East opponents later this season.

That process will begin later this week, when the Mets go to Yankee Stadium against the crosstown New York Yankees, who have been rescued from the depths of every kind of standings by, of all people, Alex Rodriguez.

Once again, the Yankees are beset by a big batch of under-performing big contracts. But the one big contract they absolutely did not want to pay, their contract with Rodriguez, is about all that's floating an otherwise tepid offense. The Yankees have scored 64 runs through games of April 19, and Rodriguez had either scored or driven in 17 of them, after subtracting his four homers so they don't get counted twice.

Rodriguez, at this moment, is a Top Ten American Leaguer in homers (4), RBI (11), runs (10), on-base percentage (.447), slugging average (.711), OPS (1.157) and, very importantly, walks (nine). We don't preach in the Church of the Walk around here, nor do we necessarily cheer Rodriguez for taking four wide as much as he has. We merely note that opponents will catch on to the obvious pitching plan now against the Yankees, as there's no good reason to give Rodriguez anything to hit when he's surrounded in the Yankees order with luminaries such as Mark Teixeira (.184 batting average), Chase Headley (.234), Brian McCann (.250 with one walk and nine strikeouts) and Carlos Beltran (.184) and Stephen Drew (.167).

The Mets, who are getting terrific starts right now from everyone in their rotation except for Dillon Gee, certainly will work around A-Rod when the New York clubs meet at the end of the week. Before that series comes to pass, though, the Mets pitchers should eat up on the notoriously weak offense of the Atlanta Braves, who venture to CitiField for three games, Tuesday through Thursday.

Inexplicably, the Braves just now scored 18 runs in three games in Toronto against the Toronto Blue Jays. We say "inexplicably," but an easy explanation presents itself. The Jays now rank 22nd among Major League pitching staffs with a 4.50 ERA.

Looking at the East League standings, we see the Mets on top, followed by the Braves, who have lived off weak opposition pitching offered by Toronto and the Miami Marlins (5.10 staff ERA, worst in baseball). The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles also have winning records, but the Red Sox can't pitch right now (4.73 staff ERA).

It's early, generally, but it's less early in the East League than in the American or National Leagues. And the Mets, so far, are handling the NL side of the east. See how they do when they start playing against the AL side later this week.

Games of April 6
Toronto 6, at New York (AL) 1.
Boston 8, at Philadelphia 0.
Baltimore 6, at Tampa Bay 2.
New York (NL) at Washington 1.
Atlanta 2, at Miami 1.

Games of April 7
Atlanta 12, at Miami 2.
Baltimore 6, at Tampa Bay 5.

Games of April 8
at Philadelphia 4, Boston 2.
at Washington 2, New York (NL) 1.
at New York (AL) 4, Toronto 3.
Atlanta 2, at Miami 0.
at Tampa Bay 2, Baltimore 0.

Games of April 9
Boston 6, at Philadelphia 2.
Toronto 6, at New York (AL) 3.
New York (NL) 6, at Washington 3.

Games of April 10
Toronto 12, at Baltimore 5.
Boston 6, at New York (AL) 5, 19 innings.
at Philadelphia 4, Washington 1.
at Miami 10, Tampa Bay 9, 10 innings.
at Atlanta 5, New York (NL) 3.

Games of April 11
Boston 8, at New York 4 (AL).
Tampa Bay 2, at Miami 0.
at Baltimore 7, Toronto 1.
at Atlanta 5, New York (NL) 3.
at Philadelphia 3, Washington 2.

Games of April 12
Tampa Bay 8, at Miami 5.
New York (NL) 4, at Atlanta 3.
Toronto 10, at Baltimore 7.
Washington 4, at Philadelphia 3 (10 innings).
at New York (AL) 14, Boston 4.

Games of April 13
New York (AL) 6, Baltimore 5.
Tampa Bay 2, at Toronto 1.
at Atlanta 3, Miami 2.
at New York (NL) 2, Philadelphia 0.
at Boston 9, Washington 4.

Games of April 14
at Boston 8, Washington 7.
Tampa Bay 3, at Toronto 2.
at Baltimore 4, New York (AL) 3.
Miami 8, at Atlanta 2.
at New York (NL) 6, Philadelphia 5.

Games of April 15
at New York (NL) 6, Philadelphia 1.
at Baltimore 7, New York (AL) 5.
at Toronto 12, Tampa Bay 7.
Washington 10, at Boston 5.
Miami 6, at Atlanta 2.

Games of April 16
at Washington 5, Philadelphia 2.
Tampa Bay 4, at Toronto 2.
at New York (NL) 7, Miami 5.

Games of April 17
at Washington 7, Philadelphia 2.
Atlanta 8, at Toronto 7.
at New York (NL) 4, Miami 1.
New York (AL) 5, Tampa Bay 4.
at Boston 3, Baltimore 2.

Games of April 18
Philadelphia 5, at Washington 3.
at Toronto 6, Atlanta 5.
Baltimore 4, at Boston 1.
at New York (NL) 5, Miami 4.
New York (AL) 9, at Tampa Bay 0.

Games of April 19
at New York (NL) 7, Miami 6.
New York (AL) 5, at Tampa Bay 3.
Baltimore 8, at Boston 3.
at Washington 4, Philadelphia 1.
Atlanta 5, at Toronto 2.

Dodgers dolt up NLCS opener, lose in 13 innings

It seemed as though the entire Dodgers organization had a collective synaptic misfiring Friday, when they set their roster for the National League Championship Series quite questionably, then performed questionably in Game 1. It still took the St. Louis Cardinals 13 innings to beat them, 3-2.

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Carlos Beltran drove in all three of his team's runs and cut down a scoring chance for the Dodgers Friday night (djprybyl/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers were so air-headed Friday that they just about had to lose their National League Championship Series opener to the St. Louis Cardinals, and they did.

The in-game decisions by players and manager alike are sure to be turned over endlessly if the series ends with the Dodgers losing. Upper management didn't cover itself with glory before the game, either. The Dodgers now are down, 1-0, with Game 2 coming up at 1 p.m. PST Saturday in St. Louis.

First, the game. The Dodgers lost, 3-2, in 13 innings. The end came after Dodgers reliever Chris Withrow gave up a single to Daniel Descalso and a walk to Matt Carpenter with one out in the 13th. The Dodgers manager, Don Mattingly, had no choice but to call his closer, Kenley Jansen, with Carlos Beltran coming to the plate.

You hate to use your closer in a tie game on the road, which is why Jansen didn't start the inning. But Withrow couldn't keep the bases clean, so the tying run moved into scoring position and, at that point, the situation is desperate. Jansen is his best guy in the bullpen, and Mattingly's best chance to keep the run from scoring.

Jansen threw strike one, then three straight fastballs too low, running the count to 3-1. At that point, Beltran had a free swing. Jansen threw the next fastball away and about knee high, Beltran took his rip and bolted it into right field to drive in Descalso. Game over.

But the Dodgers lost this game in so many other ways. Players didn't come through enough to get the job done earlier. Dodgers hitters were one-for-10 with runners in scoring position. They didn't knock out Cardinals starter Joe Kelly when they had several chances early.

The keynote was set in the first inning, when the Dodgers put runners at second and third with one out. Adrian Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig struck out to end the inning. The Dodgers scored twice against Kelly in the third, but it amounted to minimal damage. Bases loaded, one out, Puig grounded to the pitcher, who threw home for a force out. Next, Juan Uribe singled through the middle to drive in two runners and move Puig to second base. Andre Ethier then flew out to center field, ending the inning.

The Cardinals came right back in their half of the third after their first two batters, David Freese and Pete Kozma struck out. Kelly somehow singled to left, then Dodgers starter Zack Greinke walked Carpenter. The next man up, Beltran, hit a drive to the center field wall. Ethier, rusty from not playing for a while in the outfield, came close to catching it at the wall, but missed. Two runs scored, tying the game, 2-2.

The game stayed that way until the 13th inning. Though the 10th inning, the Dodgers sent up only two more batters than the minimum. They could get nothing started. Seeing precious few scoring opportunities, Mattingly sent in Dee Gordon to punch run for Gonzalez after a leadoff walk in the eighth. Very interesting decision.

Why would you make it? Because you're not getting people on base, and you have a couple hitters coming up -- Puig and Juan Uribe -- who can give you a jolt. In fact, Uribe has four RBI in the last two games. A double by one of these players drives in a run if Gordon is running, and not if Gonzalez is running.

Why would you not make it? Because you don't want to take Gonzalez and his bat out of the lineup in a game that could be going to extra innings. And because you're probably not trying to steal second base against Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who threw out 43 percent of attempting base stealers this year. It's a move that says you're trying to take the lead right now so you can close it out with Brian Wilson pitching the eighth and Jansen pitching the ninth.

Mattingly’s explanation was a little disturbing. By the accounts, it went like this: “If we don't use (Gordon) there and the next guy hits a ball in the gap and he doesn't score and we don't score there, we're going to say, 'Why didn't you use Dee?’”

Sounds too much like Mattingly is wary from constant second guessing, and he sought to guard himself from another second guess. The problem is that people watching the game questioned it as a first guess.

Anyway, it didn't work. Puig hit into a force and Uribe hit into an inning ending double play. It was the first of three double plays that would end Dodgers innings. Michael Young, who replaced Gonzalez, hit into both of the others.

Young once was an excellent batsman who tacked up 200 hits in multiple seasons because he hit the ball hard to right field. But he turns 37 next week and he no longer has the bat speed of a .315 hitter. He's more like .275 or .280, which is better than most, but the difference shows up against postseason quality.

Many commentators have complained that having Young bat behind Hanley Ramirez took the bat away from Ramirez, as the Cardinals intentionally walked Ramirez in the 10th and 12th innings with Young on-deck. It's much more sensible to suppose that if you're the Cardinals, you're not letting Ramirez beat you even if Gonzalez is up behind him. The real damage from missing Gonzalez lies in the fact that he's simply a better hitter than Young and, being left-handed, he might have forced some uncomfortable decisions on Cardinals manager Mike Matheny.

With one out in the tenth, Mark Ellis tripled for the Dodgers. One wished at that point for Gordon to be available. But he wasn't, and the Cardinals walked Ramirez so they could pitch to Young. On a 1-0 pitch, Young hit a lazy fly ball to medium right field, with Beltran coming in on the ball to catch it.

Beltran is well known for his arm and Molina is well known for his excellence at blocking the plate. Ellis is not well known for his speed. But Ellis tried to score on the fly ball, with predictable results. He was out by several feet. There was some question of whether Molina actually tagged Ellis, but even Ellis conceded that he was out. When there's a collision at home plate and the catcher hangs onto the ball, he will get that call every time.

Nothing went right for the Dodgers in this one. Their roster setting decisions before the game didn't go right, either. Facing a St. Louis team that batted .238 against left-handed pitching this season, the Dodgers decided to leave lefties Paco Rodriguez and Chris Capuano off the NLCS in favor of right-handers Edinson Volquez and Carlos Marmol.

Mattingly told reporters that management discussed that call for five hours. One has to wonder what goes down in a decision making process that last five hours and lands on removing two lefties from your staff when you're playing a team that doesn't hit them.

But that's how the day went for the Dodgers. Not a very promising start to the NLCS.

Dodgers have right matchups to beat St. Louis in NLCS

With all the metrics going around baseball these days, the simplest might still be the most predictive. And when we look at the simple numbers pertaining to right-handers against left-handers, it becomes very hard to believe the St. Louis Cardinals can last against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.

The St. Louis Cardinals bagged two of their three wins against the Dodgers this year because Pete Kozma (above) hit two doubles against Clayton Kershaw. What are the chances of that happening again? (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers will begin their National League Championship Series (NLCS) this evening against the St. Louis Cardinals in St. Louis, seeking their first trip to the World Series since 1988, when they posted an unlikely victory against the heavily favored Oakland Athletics.

The predictions are running about even. Outwardly, at least, it does shape up as an even series between two divisional championships.

However, a couple aspects of this matchup indicate that the Dodgers enter with compelling advantages. Simply, the Dodgers match up very well with the Cardinals. Although the Dodgers won the season series only 4-3, a couple of those Cardinals wins turned on occurrences that one would not expect to come up with any regularity.

We're picking the Dodgers, not because they are local, but because they are left-handed. The Dodgers match up so well with the Cardinals that we wouldn't be one bit surprised if they wrap it up in fewer than seven games. Maybe five or six, which also would stand the Dodgers well entering the World Series.

We have mentioned several times here that the Dodgers are vulnerable to left-handed pitching, and when their National League Division Series (NLDS) with the Atlanta Braves was tied, 1-1, we went so far as to say that the Braves lost the series before it started because they shorted themselves on left-handed pitching.

But do you know who really can't hit left-handed pitching? The Cardinals. They are absolutely the worst team in the National League at hitting left-handed pitching. And the Dodgers will throw them at least two left-handers in the first four games, and four, maybe even five, if it goes seven. That depends on how the Dodgers approach Game 4, for which they have not announced a starting pitcher.

We already know the Dodgers will send lefties Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-jin Ryu to the mound in Games 2 and 3. If they're feeling adventurous, they might want to try lefty Chris Capuano in Game 4. Generally, you'd rather throw power pitching at the Cardinals -- generally, you'd rather throw power pitching at everybody every day -- but it will depend on how the series progresses. If the Dodgers hold a 2-1 or 3-0 lead going to Game 4, Capuano is a good call. If Capuano can maintain an effective sinker-changeup game, he can lock them up (compare this and this with this).

On the flip side, knowing the Dodgers at the top of their game can only be slowed down by a good left-handed starting pitcher, the Cardinals don't have any. They only threw 21 starts by left-handed pitchers all year, and none of their left-handers figure in their rotation for the NLCS.

This is Christmas for the Dodgers. As we've noted before, showing a lefty to the Dodgers turns leadoff hitter Carl Crawford into nothing. Against lefties this year, Crawford batted .206 with a .551 OPS. Notice, Crawford wasn't nothing against the right-handed Braves. He hit three homers.

Left-handers turn Andre Ethier into almost nothing -- .221 batting average and .613 OPS. Juan Uribe (.308 on-base percentage against lefties) and A.J. Ellis (.200 batting average against lefties) are just a tiny bit of something against lefties. Uribe will run into a left-handed slant now and then (six homers) and Ellis can tap them for walks (17 walks, .330 on-base percentage). Nick Punto bats .309 against lefties, but it's such a flaccid .309 that his on-base (.362) actually is higher than his slugging (.361).

In short, the Dodgers have virtually no chance of scoring against lefties until the order turns to Yasiel Puig and Hanley Ramirez.

The Dodgers will have to worry about none of this for the first five or six innings of any game, unless, of course, they beat up the Cardinals right-handed starters well enough to send them showering.

When we look this Dodgers order up and down, well, look at these OPS readings against right-handers: Ramirez (1.001), Puig (.897), Ethier (.854), Adrian Gonzalez (.829), Crawford (.796), Uribe (.765). Let's even throw in Game 1 starting pitcher Zach Greinke -- .715.

Nobody questions that the Cardinals have real talent among their right-handed starting pitchers. But this is the NLCS. We're not playing against the Chicago Cubs anymore. Weaknesses are exposed here. The lack of left-handed starting pitchers already has been exposed on the Braves, and it's waiting to be exposed on the Cardinals. Getting through this Dodgers lineup with right-handed starters every day is a task perhaps too large.

On the other side, the Cardinals batted .238 with a .672 OPS this year against lefties. Both ranked 13th in the 15-team National League. Their on-base percentage was .301. Only the Cubs (.298) were worse. Their slugging was .371, which ranked 12th.

Bear in mind, this Cardinals team is a slugging bunch. Overall this year, they ranked first in runs (783) and on-base percentage (.342), second in OPS (.733) and third in slugging (.401). But they did all of that -- and much more, really -- against right-handed pitching.

Moral of the story: Don't throw right-handers at the Cardinals. The Dodgers shall take heed, because that's how they are built. They can -- and will -- make the Cardinals deal with left-handed pitching.

Take a look at the Cardinals and their OPS readings against lefties and righties, showing lefties first and righties second: Matt Adams (.654 and .876), Carlos Beltran (.729 and .871), Matt Carpenter (.820 and .897), Daniel Delasco (.529 and .684), David Freese (.811 and .629), Matt Holliday (.799 and .903), Jon Jay (.620 and .749), Pete Kozma (.536 and .554) and Yadier Molina (.883 and .823).  

Of all these hitters, only Molina and Freese are better against left-handers. Holliday, Beltran, Adams, Jay and Delasco all are more than 100 points worse against left-handers, while Carpenter is 77 points worse and Kozma is so small either way that it doesn't matter.

That said, baseball is a funny game. It has often been noted that Kershaw lost twice to the Cardinals this year. But look at how it happened.

The first time was a 5-3 St. Louis win at Dodger Stadium on May 26. The Cardinals scored three times in the second inning when Kershaw walked two hitters and Kozma hit a three-run double to left. Kershaw left the game after allowing four runs in seven innings.

The second time was a 5-1 St. Louis win at Busch Stadium on Aug. 6. With one out in the fifth inning of a scoreless tie, Jay doubled against Kershaw, then Tony Cruz singled him in, Kozma doubled Cruz to third and Joe Kelly grounded out to drive in Cruz. The next hitter, Carpenter, grounded out to end the inning. Kershaw's line at the end showed six innings and two runs.

In essence here, Pete Kozma beat Clayton Kershaw twice. What are the chances of that lightning striking for a third time? If Kozma even puts a bat on the ball against Kershaw in this series, it might qualify as a major upset.

One more factor for the Dodgers, and this, again, pertains to Kershaw, who pitched six innings without giving up an earned run in the Dodgers' Game 4 win against the Braves to finish the NLDS. If the Dodgers hadn't won that game -- and they won it largely because Kershaw pitched so well -- then the NLDS would have moved to Atlanta with Greinke pitching Game 5. As it happens, Greinke instead is pitching Game 1 of the NLCS in St. Louis.

As it happens, Greinke has taken four starts at Busch Stadium in his career, and all of them have been quality. In none of them did he last fewer than six innings, and in none of them did he allow more than two runs. Greinke took one start this year in St. Louis, a 3-2 win on Aug. 5 during which he allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings.

It also happens that Greinke took no starts this season in Atlanta. However, he has taken two starts during his career in Atlanta, and neither were quality, totaling 11 innings and seven earned runs for a 5.73 ERA. As it turned out, then, Kershaw's Game 4 outing set up Greinke for his favorable scenario and rescued him from his unfavorable scenario.

It's just breaking right for the Dodgers here. The Cardinals are an excellent team and they've got a postseason history that says they overcome the odds. But it always comes down to matchups, and the matchups clearly favor the Dodgers. For the Cardinals to prevail in this series, they will have to beat the odds once again.

NL Central race is as good as it gets

Is the National League Central division race any worse for the fact that none of its three contestants will be eliminated for falling short? No, that actually makes this race better. Because the wildcard team enters the playoffs so marginally, winning the division is everything, and we have three good clubs going at it.

Here's a common scene -- Cardinals players Allen Craig (21), John Jay (19) and Carlos Beltran (3) celebrating a run, probably after a two-out hit (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The expansion to five playoff teams in each league is supposed to increase the total September intrigue. But in the National League this year, all of the playoff contestants were identified, really, before August was done. Does that mean we have little suspense?

In the National League East, the Atlanta Braves won 14 straight between July 26 and Aug. 9, expanding their lead over the Washington Nationals from eight games to 15 1/2. The Nationals are 24-8 lately, including a dramatic double-header win against the Braves on Sept. 17, but the Braves still clinched on Sept. 22. The Nats still have about a one percent chance of stealing a wildcard bid. They have seven days to make up five games.

Same kind of thing in the National League West. The Dodgers dropped a bomb on this division and destroyed it, hitting that 42-8 stride the game hadn't seen in more than 70 years. From June 22 through Aug. 17, the Dodgers improved from 30-42 to 72-50, turning a 9 1/2-game disadvantage into an 8 1/2-game lead. After taking a break to lose a couple, the Dodgers bit off another 11 out of 14, increasing their lead to 13 1/2 on Sept. 3. The Dodgers lost nine of 13 after that, but they clinched last week, anyway, and the Arizona Diamondbacks always were well short of a wild card.

So, all the tension of three playoff races is boiled into one, which is the race for the National League Central championship. It's rare for the NL Central to have such gravity about it. These are the teams of fly-over America, where the markets aren't as rich, the lights aren't as bright, and the budgets aren't as high. But the division has produced three formidable teams whose characters are well known, and all are going to the playoffs. The stakes remain high. The division winner has the secure berth in the playoffs, and the other two will submit to a one-and-done wildcard game against each other.

The St. Louis Cardinals are the team around here that understands the playoffs. The Cardinals have only won the division once in the last six years, but they are a 21st century playoff power, going to the postseason nine times with 13 series wins, three pennants and two World Championships. In 2011, the Cardinals stole the wild card spot from Atlanta and rode that heist all the way to the World Championship. Last season, the Cardinals entered as the tag-along second wild card, but lasted through two rounds of playoff opponents and didn't succumb until Game 7 of the National League Championship Series.

Contrast that track record with the Cincinnati Reds, who, on account of their checkered postseason history, enter the playoffs with more to prove than any other team. The Reds have won the division two times out of the last three, and they could make it three of four right here. Somehow, no one thinks of this as a great team, and that's all because of the postseason.

Their 2010 division title was a little less persuasive after the Reds went down in three straight against the Philadelphia Phillies, possibly in the least contested playoff series ever. They lost the opener to Roy Halladay's no hitter, made four errors in the second game to blow a 4-0 lead and lose, then gave pitching ace Johnny Cueto nothing to work with in a 2-0 loss. It was as if the playoffs were too big for them.

The Reds returned to the top of the division in 2012 and tanked again in the playoffs. The Reds won the first two on the road in their divisional series against the San Francisco Giants, and needed to win only one of the next three in Cincinnati. But the Reds lost the first of them, 2-1, in 10 innings. Next two games, the Giants mugged the Reds in their own yard, and the winning by scores of 8-3 and 6-4, and Reds fans sat by dumbfounded while the Giants went on to play, of course, the Cardinals.

To that mix, which has really stirred the pot in this division for the last three years, we add an underdog, a true sentimental favorite. Any inclination about treating the Reds sentimentally is wrong, because the Pittsburgh Pirates are even more sentimental. They've already celebrated their first winning season in 20 years this month. The Pirates have pitched their way there, tied for second in NL ERA at 3.29, while they tweak an offense with only one great player, Andrew McCutchen. On the principle that every little hit helps, the Pirates have added veterans Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau to their mix, but they still only scored nine runs in a five-game stretch last week against the Chicago Cubs and the San Diego Padres.

The Pirates pitch enough to contend, and the Cardinals keep hitting with two out, and these teams have not gotten unstuck from each other. Since April 23, either the Cardinals or Pirates have led the division. After the Cardinals held on to it for two months, the Pirates took the lead on June 28, and the lead has since changed hands five more times. There have been 12 days on which the lead was tied. The Pirates have led on 39 days and the Cardinals have led on 34 days. But the Cardinals now have led since Sept. 12, which is about 10 days, and there are only about seven games left for each club.

It's irresistible to say that the Cardinals are leading because they hit in the clutch. With two outs and runners in scoring position, the Cardinals were batting .301 with an .813 OPS entering last weekend's games. The league averages were .227 and .676. Just going back through this short century on baseball-reference.com, you don't see teams batting .300 in that situation. You see a team once in a while bat .280, and sometimes an OPS is higher. But one almost never finds a team so much better than the rest of the league in that little aspect.

The Cardinals had 707 plate appearances with two out and runners in scoring position, pretty close to the league average of 693.3. That's already odd – isn’t it? – because one would expect success in that situation to create more situations of that type ("two-out RISP"). When you get a hit with two out and runners in scoring position, you still have two out, and there’s a good chance of a runner in scoring position. Anyway, the Cardinals scored 241 runs in those plate appearances, against a league average of 182.8. The next most productive team, the San Francisco Giants, had 203 runs with two out-RISP.

The Cardinals aren't setting any records. The Philadelphia Phillies scored 300 runs in that deciding circumstance in 2007. What's striking is that the Cardinals were hitting .300 while the rest of the league did so terribly. The league average usually is around .235-.240, and the league is averaging .227 this year. The Cardinals, overall, scored 738 runs, 68 more than any other team and 123 more than the league average of 615.733. Their margin over the next best team with two out and scoring position was 38 runs, and that margin over the average is not even 60 runs. So, hitting with two out and runners in scoring position is some of what's happening with the Cardinals, but not all of it.

When one accepts that clutch hitting is not considered a repeatable skill, then it becomes evident that the Cardinals' advantage against every other team in this regard is not sustainable. It's only a short hop to wondering if the probabilities back toward the mean are in store for the Cardinals, and when. But another short hop disarms us: Does it really matter?

In 2001, the Colorado Rockies tore up two outs and scoring position, batting .281, with an .837 OPS and 292 runs, 59 more than any other team. Rockies had 855 plate appearances, many more than the Cardinals will reach. The Rockies also were a last-place team in 2001. Hitting with two out and runners in scoring position isn't as helpful if you're already four runs down.

One more matter, not small. The Cardinals probably are without Allen Craig for the rest of the season after he sprained his foot on Sept. 4 in Cincinnati. Craig has been the Cardinals ring leader with two-out RISP, batting .448 (26 for 58) with 38 RBI and a 1.202 OPS. But the Cardinals aren't destitute. Matt Holliday, Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams and Carlos Beltran all are above a .940 OPS with two-out RISP.

A team that can keep the Cardinals from brewing up an inning should be unafraid of their prowess at batting with two out and runners in scoring position. Just the other day, on Sept. 18, the Cardinals happened to be playing at Colorado, during which they were two-for-four with two out-RISP through nine innings of a game then tied at 5-5. For the next five innings, the Rockies bullpen kept the Cardinals out of scoring position. In the 15th, the Cardinals brought up a hitter with one out and a runner in scoring position, and he hit into an inning-ending double play. The Rockies scored in the 15th and won, 6-5. So, the Cardinals added to their numbers with two out-RISP, but it's not a deal maker.

In a manner of speaking, the Cardinals are in the clubhouse with the lead, having no games left with the Pirates or Reds. But the Cardinals have three each coming against the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs, and they're not safe. In baseball, you never know.

Beneath the Cardinals and Pirates, we find a shadow contender, the Reds, who have, after all, won this division in two of the last three years. But the Reds have not held first place this year since April and they have never mounted a strong bid to take over. They've just sat on the fringe, well enough to win a wild card, always sustained, it seems by a sense that the Pirates just can't hit enough and the Cardinals, at some point, have got to start making that third out.

None of that has happened, at least not enough to move the Reds up the standings. But, with a week left, there they sit, two games behind the Cardinals and tied with the Pirates after winning two of three in Pittsburgh during the past weekend. At this point, of course, winning the division would be a feat of heroism for the Reds, who have not etched themselves as an especially heroic team.

But you never know in baseball, and, in this division, we really don't know. The Cardinals play three this week at home against Washington, which is poised to end Davey Johnson's managerial career with a flourish. The Nats are the hottest team in the NL. And you know they want to spoil the Cardinals after losing to them in last year's divisional series. The Cardinals will end their season this weekend with three at home against the Cubs, who did win two of three in the shadow of the arch from Aug 9-11.

The Pirates are on the road this final week with three at the Cubs and, crucially, three in Cincinnati. The Reds are at home this week with three at home against the New York Mets and the three against the Pirates.

The Cardinals lead on the morning of Sept. 23 by two over the Pirates and Reds. Division races don't get better than this, even though the outcome will eliminate none of these teams. Then again, it probably is because all these teams are too good to be eliminated that the race has this kind of juice.