West League: Dodgers streak to seven straight

The Dodgers brought two northern opponents to Chavez Ravine last week and cruised to a 6-0 homestand, bringing their winning streak to seven. They have the early lead in the West League. But they travel this week to the haunts of the floundering San Francisco Giants.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is swinging as much bat as anyone in the game right now, leading his club to a streaking start in all competitions (TonyTheTiger/Creative Commons Share Alike-Attribution 4.0 International license).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

A look at the early West League standings reveals that the balance of power in the west is in the south, particularly Southern California.

The Dodgers (9-3) have won seven in a row after wolfing down two northern opponents, the Seattle Mariners and the Colorado Rockies, in a 6-0 home stand that ended Sunday. The only other club that's even two games above even in the West League, the San Diego Padres, recently enjoyed a good home stand against two northern division clubs, winning three of four against the San Francisco Giants and two of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Maybe some of this will shake back as the Dodgers and Padres hit the road. We could find out quickly.

The Dodgers are in San Francisco Tuesday through Thursday, and even though the Giants are a scuffling 4-10, well, you know the rest.

Right now, though, the Dodgers are riding high. No one in the game is on-basing (.527), slugging (.939), or, therefore, OPSing (1.467) better than Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and he has company in that lineup. Two other Dodgers are in the OPS Top 20 across the Major Leagues — second baseman Howie Kendrick (tenth, 1.105) and rookie center fielder Joc Pederson (20th, .990).

So, the Dodgers are doing fine offensively without Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon. They probably ought to be better defensively with those three replaced, respectively, by Pederson, Jimmy Rollins and Kendrick. Pederson has been terrific with the glove. Rollins, Kendrick and Gonzalez have been less so. But the Dodgers lead all of baseball with a team OPS of .885, which covers a lot of defensive problems.

Much was made during the winter about the Padres bring in a new outfield, and it's worked out well so far, with Kemp (162 OPS-plus), Wil Myers (114) and Justin Upton (191) all hitting. But they haven't outshined the Padres' new pitchers, which is why the Padres are fourth across baseball in staff ERA at 2.79. Give it to newcomers James Shields (2.84), Brandon Morrow (1.29) and Craig Kimbrel (1.42 with four saves).

Games of April 5

St. Louis 3, at Chicago (NL) 0.

Games of April 6

at Cincinnati 5, Pittsburgh 2.

at Detroit 4, Minnesota 0.

at Kansas City 10, Chicago (AL) 1.

Games of April 7

St. Louis at Chicago (NL), ppd.

Games of April 8

at Chicago (NL) 2, St. Louis 0.

at Detroit 11, Minnesota 0.

at Cincinnati 5, Pittsburgh 2 (11 innings).

at Kansas City 7, Chicago (AL) 5.

Games of April 9

at Cincinnati 3, Pittsburgh 2.

at Detroit 7, Minnesota 1.

at Kansas City 4, Chicago (AL) 1.

Games of April 10

Detroit 8, at Cleveland 4

Minnesota 6, at Chicago (AL) 0.

at Cincinnati 5, St. Louis 4.

Pittsburgh 6, at Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 11

St. Louis 4, at Cincinnati 1.

at Chicago (AL) 5, Minnesota 4.

Detroit 9, at Cleveland 6.

at Milwaukee 6, Pittsburgh 0.

Games of April 12

Detroit 8, at Cleveland 5.

St. Louis 7, at Cincinnati 5 (12 innings).

at Chicago (AL) 6, Minnesota 2.

Pittsburgh 10, at Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 13

at Chicago (NL) 7, Cincinnati 6.

at Pittsburgh 5, Detroit 4.

Milwaukee 5, at St. Louis 4.

Kansas City 12, at Minnesota 3.

Games of April 14

Detroit 2, at Pittsburgh 0.

Chicago (AL) 4, at Cleveland 1.

Cincinnati 3, at Chicago (NL) 2.

Games of April 15

at Cleveland 4, Chicago (AL) 2.

Detroit 1, at Pittsburgh 0.

at Chicago (NL) 5, Cincinnati 0.

at Minnesota 3, Kansas City 1.

at St. Louis 4, Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 16

at St. Louis 4, Milwaukee 0.

at Minnesota 8, Kansas City 5.

Games of April 17

at Detroit 2, Chicago (AL) 1.

at Pittsburgh 6, Milwaukee 3.

at Minnesota 3, Cleveland 2.

at St. Louis 6, Cincinnati 1.

Games of April 18

Chicago (AL) 12, at Detroit 3.

Cleveland 4, at Minnesota 2.

at St. Louis 5, Cincinnati 2.

at Pittsburgh 6, Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 19

at Detroit 9, Chicago (AL) 1.

at Pittsburgh 5, Milwaukee 2.

at Minnesota 7, Cleveland 2.

at St. Louis 2, Cincinnati 1.

A Dodgers-Giants division race? About time!

It's been 10 years since the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants duked it out in the National League West. Now, at long last, blaring out of the All-Star break, here it comes.

We thought a National League West race between the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants might materialize in 2012, but it didn't. This season, it has (public domain image).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

We're just about to that point at which every club across Major League Baseball has played 100 games, and the last month of Dodgers games will never be confused with 42-8.

But it's certainly good enough for now. And only for now.

For now, the Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants are right with each other on top of the National League West, trading the lead back and forth. The true reason is another June swoon by the Giants after they had won two thirds of their games. At the All-Star break, the Dodgers led the West by one game 54-43. A week following the All-Star game, the Giants hold the one-game lead at 56-44.

We're looking now at an enticing possibility, something we haven't seen in 10 years – a race for the NL West between the Dodgers and the Giants, who last really went toe-to-toe in 2004, when the Dodgers prevailed by two games over the Giants.

The Dodgers teased us a little in 2012, when they started so well, then the new ownership came in and splurged on players mid-season. But a true divisional race never materialized because that Dodgers club never synced together. The Giants won the division by eight games and played a solid postseason to win the World Series for the second time in three years while the Dodgers still hadn't won it since 1988.

Finally, last June, the Dodgers began to gel, hitting that 42-8 stride for the division championship while the Giants suffered the downturn of many defending World Champions. The Dodgers couldn't finish the job in the postseason, losing a six-game National League Championship Series to the St. Louis Cardinals, who then fell to the Boston Red Sox in the World Series.

Now, though, here at mid-season 2014, we've got that race that was happening on two coasts more than 3,000 miles apart for a pretty solid 65 years. The Dodgers and Giants have taken their turns this year, just as we might expect. Through June 8, the Giants were 42-21, 9 1/2 games ahead of the second-place Dodgers, stumbling along at a mere 33-31.

Then, all that Giants hitting went away. From June 8 until the All-Star game, the Giants were 10-22, batting only .234 with a team OPS of .630. The Giants, at their best, aren't a great offensive club, and they were well beyond their powers with a .717 club OPS through June 8. At the break, they were .688 (against a league average of .697). They really lost the home run stroke. Through June 8, they had hit 69 homers in 62 games, and they hit 17 homers in 32 games leading to the break.

The Dodgers were 21-12 from June 8 until the break, but they didn't become that by increasing their offensive potency. Through June 8, they slashed .253/.323/.407/.731. From June 8 until the break, they slashed .267/.339/.380/.718. Those slugging percentages tell us the Dodgers actually hit with less power, and they scored substantially less – 4.3 runs per game through June 8 and 3.9 from June 8 until the break.

But we've seen some pitching lately, have we not? On May 20, the Dodgers' team ERA peaked at 3.69. From then until the break, the staff tossed up a 2.92, bringing the season number down to 3.29. The Dodgers struggled early with their bullpen, which choked up about a dozen games in the first six weeks. Through May 20, Dodgers relievers notched 13 saves, five blown saves, three wins and nine losses. From then until the break, it was 17 saves, two blows, a win and a loss. That bullpen, which was supposed to be a huge strength, really is one now. Kenley Jansen is 29-for-32 in saves (90 percent) and the team is 82 percent against a league average of 68 percent.

The recovery of the Dodgers' bullpen is Reason No. 1 for the club's rise in the standings. And the bullpen isn't even where the Dodgers pitching staff is at its best. Day after day, their starting pitcher is simply better than the other guy. With Josh Beckett throwing the way he was throwing before going on the disabled list, their No. 4 is better than half of the other clubs have at No. 1. The Dodgers should out-pitch the other club every day, and that has been happening.

We could say the Dodgers will go as far as their pitching can take them, which is pretty far, but we don't have to. Imagine what this club can do when it starts hitting.

By many measurements, the Dodgers are an elite offensive club within the NL this year, and they're not nearly as productive as they could be. With only 78 homers in their 102 games, they would have to hit one per game the rest of the year to match last year's total of 138 homers. If those homers come, the Dodgers will light it up.

The Dodgers have a few left-handed hitters who might pick it up a little. Last season, Adrian Gonzalez ran a 124 OPS-plus and now he's carding a 114, while Andre Ethier is down from 120 to 94 and Carl Crawford is down from 107 to 94.

Oddly enough for a club whose best hitters are right-handed, the Dodgers continue as one of the league's worst hitting clubs against left-handed pitchers. Against lefties, the Dodgers split .231/.315/.360/.675 with a relative OPS-plus of 90 compared with the league, which splits .252/.317/.391/.708 against left-handers. Right-handed batters Matt Kemp and Juan Uribe OPS .613 and .606 against lefties.

Yet, the Dodgers are, by the measurements, better offensively than they were last season. In 2013, the Dodgers slashed .264/.326/.396/.722, ranking third, third, sixth and fourth in the NL. But they ranked only seventh in runs with 649. This year, they are slashing .258/.329/.397/.726, ranking second, third, third and third. And they're also third in runs with 424.

The difference in terms of their offensive efficiency, just to pick one, is Dee Gordon, a forgotten man, who, out of nowhere, became a second baseman – and an All-Star second baseman, at that. Gordon has added a running dimension that this club sorely needed. The Dodgers already have stolen 91 bases (and been caught 35 times), with Gordon already swiping 45 bases in 55 attempts. Last year, the Dodgers swiped only 78 bases all year (and were caught 28 times). Their stolen base leader, Carl Crawford, was 15-for-19.

So, the Dodgers approach their last 60 games as a strong contender with a lot of room to grow. It bodes well for the remainder of this season. But there is one thing standing in their way. The Giants.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Dodgers freeze in first inning

The Dodgers lack luster so far, and it shows in the way they start the game. The Dodgers have scored only 25 runs in the first inning. Only San Diego, among National League clubs, has fewer runs to show for the first frame.

Dee Gordon has made many contributions this season for the Dodgers, but he's still not getting the offense started in the first inning (bridgetds/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Those arriving so late as to miss the first inning at Dodger Stadium aren't seeing nothing happening.

Nothing happening is the Dodgers offense in the first inning, specifically at home. Across baseball through the years, the first inning is the best inning for scoring, but it's one of the worst this year for the Dodgers. Entering a six-game homestand on June 13, they've scored only 25 first-inning runs all season, the second-lowest total in the National League. Only the San Diego Padres, with 20, are less successful.

If you're able to see the road games because you're able to see the Dodgers on TV, you might not notice it as much. The Dodgers are about like a normal club in the first inning on the road, scoring in the first inning 11 times for a total of 17 runs (they're 8-3 in those games). The average Major League club has scored 31.8 runs in the first inning this year (home and road), so the Dodgers are close to the average just as a road team.

At home, the Dodgers have scored only six times in the first inning, totaling eight runs (They're 2-4 in those games.). When you look at the Dodgers having the second-worst home record in the league at 13-19, it would seem that failing to score in the first inning 26 times has something to do with it.

In 32 home games, the Dodgers have scored three runs or fewer 16 times. They have won one of those games. They have scored two or fewer at home 11 times, and won none of those games. They've scored one run six times, but they've been shut out once.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly suggested in The Los Angeles Times Friday morning that the expanded and refurbished clubhouse at Dodger Stadium might influence how badly the Dodgers are performing at home. That's an intuition and we'll leave that with the Dodgers. What really pops the eye is the numbers for their offensive performers in the first inning, when they emerge from the clubhouse.

Put Dee Gordon in the road greys and he's a snappy player, batting .296 with a .355 on-base percentage. Even at home, he's .274 and .306. But in the first inning, Gordon remains overmatched, going .265 and .294. Gordon has the third most first-inning plate appearances for the Dodgers (51), all at the top of the lineup, and he has scored only five runs. One of those was a solo homer.

But the problem isn't merely that Gordon doesn't get on to create first-inning opportunities, for he can at least boast the third-best batting average for the inning of any Dodgers hitter (with at least 10 first-inning plate appearances). Most of the hitters down the order are even worse.

Hanley Ramirez is a .240 hitter with a .725 OPS in the first inning (58 plate appearances, most on the club.). Andre Ethier is three-for-26 (.188) with one walk, four strikeouts and two RBI in the first inning.

It's no secret that Matt Kemp isn't what he used to be, especially in the first inning. During his should-have-been-MVP season of 2011, he slashed .383/.445/.798/1.243 in the first inning. All of those were his highs for an inning, except for a .455 on-base percentage in the eighth. His first inning runs (23), homers (11) and RBI (36) were his highs for an inning. This year, his first inning is two-for-15 (.133) with no walks and three strikeouts. He has reached base twice, but also grounded into three double plays, so he has a negative output concerning base runners in the first inning.

Not to suggest a correlation, but Kemp's work against left-handed pitching has fallen off the same way. The Dodgers have been turned out by left-handers for at least three years, but Kemp once gave them one guy who could tear lefties apart so badly that they were going to score, anyway. In 2011, he split .341/.461/.682/1.142 against left-handers, with 11 homers and 32 RBI in 132 at-bats, 30 walks and 29 strikeouts.

In 2014 against left-handers, Kemp is .176/.211/.294/.505 with no homers and five RBI in 68 at-bats, three walks and 18 strikeouts. He is literally less than half the hitter he used to be against left-handers.

This year, the Dodgers are batting .213 with a .644 OPS against left-handers, each being better than only the Padres in the NL. Their batting average on balls in play (.260) is barely better than the Padres at a bottom-ranking .259.

But the Dodgers do two things reasonably well against left-handers, and they count: they walk and they can occasionally run into a left-hander and take him out of the park (16 homers). None of those are balls batted into play.

The homers make the Dodgers about average in the NL. The benefit is multiplied, however, because the Dodgers have walked 62 times against 606 plate appearances, the second-highest such proportion in the league against left-handers. So, they are seventh in runs against left-handers (66), though also third in plate appearances (682).

Most of their damage to left-handers comes from the right side, naturally, and especially from Scott Van Slyke, who has six homers in 44 at-bats and a 1.243 OPS against left-handers. As far as how the Dodgers' left-handed hitters do against left-handed pitching, Clayton Kershaw is about as good as any of them.

We got sidetracked just now and began looking at how badly the Dodgers handle left-handers as the discussion got into Kemp. This is supposed to be about how the Dodgers score fewer runs in the first inning than all but one other club in the National League. We don't suggest any kind of cause and effect between the two. We can't even imagine which would be the cause and which would be the effect. We know, also, that struggling against left-handers is a long-term trait of the Dodgers, while we suppose that the first-inning problem will work itself out in the long run of cases this season.

The numbers are too weird to believe right now. The Dodgers, as said before, are 15th in the NL with 25 runs in the first inning. But seven American League teams have scored fewer first-inning runs than the Dodgers, and two of them are the Boston Red Sox (24) and Detroit Tigers (23). Can we really expect it to end this way?

The Red Sox pounced on everyone at the start last year, but their first inning this year reeks of Dustin Pedrioa (.619 OPS in the first inning) and David Ortiz (.631). For the Tigers, Miguel Cabrera is relatively lacking luster with his first-inning OPS of .843, and Victor Martinez is less than that at .669. But along with that, Ian Kinsler (.514) and Torii Hunter (.483) are next to nothing in the first inning.

Allowing that Hunter may be finally showing his age at 39, it's hard to believe that all these elite players between the Dodgers, Red Sox and Tigers are going to continue stammering through the first inning. With about 100 games left in the season, it's early enough to believe that these hitters will work it out.

The Dodgers have a couple hitters somewhat delivering in the first inning. Adrian Gonzalez has a .286 batting average and an .897 OPS, while Yasiel Puig has a .298 batting average and .888 OPS. But neither of those are sky high, and they're not enough to paper over all the other weak first-inning performers.

It should be mentioned that the Dodgers have a ninth-inning problem, as well, and it is serious. They are second from the bottom across baseball in ninth-inning batting average (.174) and OPS (.508). The average team has scored 22.6 ninth-inning runs and the Dodgers have scored 15. They have no one hitting in the ninth. The most culpable by OPS are Gordon (.649), Carl Crawford (.481), Ethier (.478), Van Slyke (.465), Puig (.440), Gonzalez (.269) and Kemp (.241). It would seem that the Dodgers struggle against the top relievers.

The ninth inning and the first inning are different problems. The first inning is never a do-or-die situation, but it always counts and it is the best opportunity for arranging offensive talent to strike against a pitcher who hasn't gotten into his tool box. That's why the first inning is the highest scoring inning. The ninth inning may or may not be crucial. If some team gets well enough on top, it isn't.

The Dodgers are flat-lining at 35-33 this year, and one reason is that they can't get on top of a game at Dodger Stadium. They seldom score in the first inning at home and, even when they do, they've still lost two-thirds of the time.

The probability gremlins discourage a flat prediction that the Dodgers will ultimately reach their level in the first inning. But the Dodgers certainly are paying enough bats to do it. The hot streak we're waiting for could ride on it.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Dodgers no better than a year ago ... is that good enough?

The Dodgers are a star in the Major League universe again, and it is good to have them back. But they began spring training last week no better than they were when they left the field after last year's National League Championship Series, which makes one question if they can take the next step in 2014.

The Dodgers are back a little earlier than most teams because they will begin the season on March 22 in Australia (Public domain image).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers have begun training camp with pitchers and catchers, which seem to be among the least of their worries. Not to be a killjoy, considering that the Dodgers again are the No. 1 team in town with the demise of the Lakers, but some skepticism is in order.

We don't normally like skepticism in spring training. Spring is the time of new awakening in a young man's heart, and all that. But the Dodgers have been on such a honeymoon since reaching the National League Championship Series (NLCS) that no one seems to notice that they have improved not one bit during the winter, nor is there sufficient accounting for that freakish 42-8 run the Dodgers needed to rescue their 2013 season.

The Dodgers earned everything they got, and they probably have another 92 wins or more in them for 2014. The National League West doesn't include another club that is absolutely ready to pounce. The Dodgers will be favored to win their division, and they should be.

But if the 2013 Dodgers weren't a World Series team, then the 2014 Dodgers probably aren't one, either. There's an idea going around that the Dodgers somehow were noble over-achievers, taking on the St. Louis Cardinals without Matt Kemp or most of Andre Ethier and Hanley Ramirez before losing the NLCS in six games. There is some merit to it, and there also isn't. After all, the Cardinals didn't have one of their main producers, Allen Craig, and the former ace Chris Carpenter missed the whole year before retiring.

Obviously, though, the strengths of this Dodgers team are compelling. Signing ace left-hander Clayton Kershaw to a seven-year extension for $215 million is a franchise move. Behind him in the rotation, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu are as good as it gets for No. 2 and No. 3 starting pitchers.

And the Dodgers bullpen could be top-notch from top to bottom. Kenley Jansen is back to close after 28 saves, a 1.88 ERA and a 0.861 WHIP in 75 appearances. Brian Wilson, the former San Francisco Giants closer, figures to be the eighth-inning man. Behind them, we find right-handers Chris Perez and Brandon League, both experienced as big league closers. The two top lefties, J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez, both are good.

Offensively, the roster includes Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp, who all have produced MVP-type seasons. In the outfield, along with Kemp, we find Ethier, Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig. All four of the outfielders, except for Puig, have produced in winning amounts over multiple Major League seasons, and Puig might be the monstrous talent of them all.

The catcher, A.J. Ellis, is a popular anti-star on this team. If he doesn't keep every pitch in the dirt from getting away, he and the pitching staff are splendid at cutting down the opponent's running game, offing 44 percent of attempting base stealers (28 of 63) against a league average of 28 percent.

Lots to like. There also is quite a bit about which to be wary. The main questions about the Dodgers concern health, aging and defense.

On the health front, we begin with Kemp, who had a period in his life -- roughly 2011 and the first month of 2012 – when he was the best baseball player in the world. As spring training begins in 2014, Kemp is fighting against a career threatening injury to the talus bone in his left ankle. He can't run yet.

Kemp played in only 73 games last season, a few less than Ramirez, who appeared in 86 games. Ramirez produced like no one else in 2013, a 190 OPS-plus. When he played. His durability in 2014 cannot be assumed.

Injury concerns also are at work in the starting rotation, with Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley both entering spring training as walking wounded. Those are two pretty good names to have at No. 4 and 5 in the starting rotation. Right now, though, those names can't go there. We are more likely to see the names of lefty Paul Maholm, who is a pretty good recent signing, and right-hander Dan Haren, who is as likely as not to spend the season at the chiropractor’s office. Along with Haren's troublesome back, there is some concern about Maholm's left elbow, which caused him to miss time last September. And if neither of them has it, we're back to Stephen Fife and Matt Magill.

Behind the plate, Ellis is entering his age 33 season, that magic moment when all but the very greatest players begin to decline sharply. Ellis already declined from a 118 OPS-plus in 2012 to 93 in 2013, and squatting behind the plate all day isn't conducive to freshness. Behind Ellis is Tim Federowicz, and we shouldn't be too surprised if he is catching the majority of games by September.

Defensively, who knows what to expect from incoming second baseman Alex Guerrero, the former shortstop for the Cuban national team? The transition to second base is hardly a no-brainer, especially when it comes to dealing with that back side runner on the double-play ball to the shortstop. And if he fights the transition, the Dodgers don't have Mark Ellis around anymore to clean it up. He signed with the Cardinals, who brought him in as a fallback position in case Kolten Wong isn't really ready.

The Dodgers also should be concerned about balls hit to the left side of the field, and with lefties Kershaw, Ryu and Maholm in the rotation, those will not be infrequent. Ramirez is minus-3.5 WAR defensively in his career at shortstop. In left field, Crawford lacks range and throwing arm, and teams that don't run on him are missing opportunities for extra bases. Juan Uribe at third base often enough fails the eye test at third base, even though his metrics there are pretty good.

Uribe is something of a metaphor for the Dodgers overall. Maybe synecdoche – a part that is representative of the whole – is more like it. Dodgers fans spent three years complaining about the three-year deal for $21 million to which the club signed Uribe back when they couldn't afford anyone better. But when he crushed that bunny pitch from Atlanta Braves reliever David Carpenter to win the National League Division Series last year, Uribe became a hero to millions. With that, the Dodgers signed Uribe for another two years at $15 million. But Uribe is entering his age 34 season, he contributed little except outs in 2011 and 2012, and he now is a candidate for decline.

The Dodgers aren't exactly candidates for decline. They can expect an exciting regular season during which they will win a lot more than they lose, and it is a major upset and disappointment if they don't return to the playoffs.

But when they get there, are they any better? Will Uribe be able to deliver that towering hit? Will there be enough towering hits across the club to push the Dodgers into the World Series? Because that's what it's really about at this point. It's World Series or bust. And as spring training begins, it's not obvious that the Dodgers have added the pieces to get them there, because they haven't really added anything.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Braves will lose for lopping off lefty Maholm

The Atlanta Braves probably lost their National League Division Series with the Dodgers before it started. Quality left-handed pitching is the one proven way to slow down the Dodgers when they are at their best, and the Braves decided to short themselves of left-handed starters.

Lefty Mike Minor did the Dodgers in Friday afternoon. For whatever reason, the Atlanta Braves elected to not have any other left-handed starting pitchers (Public domain image).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

After the Atlanta Braves evened up their National League Division Series with the Dodgers on the strength of six strong innings from left-hander Mike Minor Friday, it's more evident than ever that the Braves gave the series away when they set their pitching staff.

By leaving left-handed starter Paul Maholm off their roster for this series, the Braves undercut their ability to exploit the one discernible flaw on the Dodgers. Long ago, we mentioned here that the Dodgers were susceptible to good left-handed pitching. Even when the Dodgers were in the midst of 42-8, when they were winning every kind of game imaginable -- when they scored fewer than three runs and won, when they allowed more than four runs and won, when they were out-hit and won, when the other team scored first and the Dodgers still won -- the one way to slow them down was to throw at least a decent left-handed starter.

Maholm qualifies. He finished the season with a 4.41 ERA to go with his 10-11 record, but he is a veteran with some guile, and he was effective against the Dodgers – two starts, 13 1/3 innings, 12 hits and three earned runs (2.03 ERA) with three walks and six strikeouts.

The one hope for the Dodgers, we supposed, would be the return to form of Matt Kemp, who hits left-handers better than anyone. That possibility crumbled, though, when the Dodgers disabled Kemp at the end of the season.

Then, the Braves gave the Dodgers a gift, putting only one left-hander in their rotation for this series. With all the information and intelligence that goes into running baseball teams nowadays, it's remarkable that the Braves could just miss that.

We don't really know who made that call. Somehow, though, general manager Frank Wren and manager Fredi Gonzalez decided to take on the Dodgers with only one left-handed starter.

A recent Sports Illustrated piece points out that when we only consider players on the Dodgers' roster for this series, they are .282/.345/.424 against right-handers and .260/.324/.406 against lefties. That's a difference of 39 points in OPS, from .769 to .730.

On July 29, when we first touched on this, the Dodgers' .261 batting average against lefties led the league, their .321 on-base percentage ranked third, their .401 slugging average ranked third and their .721 OPS ranked second. When the season ended, the Dodgers were batting .253 against lefties (seventh), with a .315 on-base percentage (eighth), a.391 slugging average (seventh) and a .706 OPS (sixth). So, it's not merely that the Dodgers finished where they finished, but how they finished, which had to be at even lower rates during the last two months to bring down those averages.

Minor gave up a run in the first on a Hanley Ramirez double Friday, then the Dodgers didn't advance anyone else to second base through the fifth inning. The Braves won, 4-3, bringing the best-of-five series to a 1-1 tie.

It defies explanation, perhaps, but the Dodgers have a lot of right-handed batters who hit better against right-handed pitchers. And they have no left-hander hitters who hit better against left-handed pitchers. Left-handers especially neutralize Carl Crawford at the top of the Dodgers order, and, unless Nick Punto is playing, the bottom of their order is useless against lefties.

It would seem that the smart play for the Braves would have been to start Minor in Games 1 and 5, and Maholm in Game 2 or 3. That way, they get the majority of starts by left-handers. The Braves still could audible to rookie lefty Alex Wood for a start, but that’s not in the plans and he already has been used once in relief.

So, the Dodgers don't have to face another left-handed starter for the remainder of the series, which picks up with Game 3 at Dodger Stadium Sunday afternoon. That’s enough to make the Dodgers a rather comfortable favorite to win the series, perhaps as soon as Monday.

Tight matches on deck for NL playoffs

The divisional round of playoffs in the National League stands to be among the most even ever. One pits two easy division winners against each other, and the other will decide, once for all, which National League Central club can claim the best outcome.

Hanley Ramirez was the key hitter for the Dodgers during their surge to the National League West championship (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Generic 2.0 license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The divisional round of playoffs in the National League stands to be as even as any such round that we have seen since expanded playoffs began in 1995, and that is kind of a mouthful, considering that each divisional series in the NL went the maximum five games just last year.

The difference is that such parity was unexpected last year. For instance, form pegged the Washington Nationals, who finished 2012 with the league's best record, to bounce the St. Louis Cardinals, who entered as the second wildcard and finished the regular season ten games worse. It didn't work out that way. The Cardinals know how to win in October, and they took it in five.

This time, the Cardinals are the top entrant, and they get to face the wildcard survivor. Vis-à-vis the Cardinals, however, the wildcard Pittsburgh Pirates aren't merely survivors. They are living, formidable adversaries who went to the final week of the regular season challenging the Cardinals for the National League Central title. Now, they meet in an extension and dénouement of the best divisional race across Major League Baseball this season.

And that's not even the better divisional series. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers will meet in a clash of divisional champions who prevailed easily and have waited on this moment for nearly a month. While the Pirates and Cardinals have fired their guns for the last three weeks, the Braves and Dodgers have cleaned and polished theirs. The Braves and Dodgers are fortunate to face each other instead of opponents conditioned by tense playoff races.

The difference between the Braves and Dodgers right now is the sense in which we know each club. The Braves, we know rather well. The Dodgers, as always this season, are mysterious.

The Braves will pitch, they will hit home runs, they will walk and they will strike out. They led the National League this season in ERA (3.18) and home runs (181), tied for the NL lead in striking out (1,384, with the New York Mets) and finished second in walks (542, behind 585 by the Cincinnati Reds). They're the team Earl Weaver would have loved: pitching, defense and three-run homers.

Defense? By the numbers, the Braves were third in NL defensive efficiency (.700) and second in zone fielding runs above average (63). Shortstop Andrelton Simmons led the NL in defensive WAR at 5.4 (per baseball-reference.com), while outfielders Jason Heyward (1.4) and B.J. Upton (0.3), and catcher Brian McCann (0.3) also were plus players defensively, according to WAR.

With Upton batting so poorly this year (.557 OPS), Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez switched up the lineup, moving Justin Upton from left field to right, moving Heyward from right to center and putting Evan Gattis and his 21 homers in left. The Braves also are going without second baseman Dan Uggla, who struggled all year and is left off the postseason roster.

Third baseman Chris Johnson (.321) and first baseman Freddie Freeman (.319) finished second and third in NL batting average. Freeman is the big bopper in this lineup with 109 RBI and an .897 OPS.

The Braves went to this season with Tim Hudson as their ace, but he is injured now. Regardless, the Braves are strong at the top of their rotation and in the back of their bullpen. The top starting pitchers are Kris Medlen (15-12, 3.11 ERA), Mike Minor (13-9, 3.21) and Julio Teheran (14-8, 3.20). Closer Craig Kimbrel led the NL in saves for the third straight year, hitting a career high of 50 saves.

Gonzalez did a skillful job with the Braves, dealing with the tanking of Uggla and B.J. Upton, along with season-ending injuries to Hudson and relievers Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters. He made all the right moves with the lineup. Once he fills out the lineup card, he lets them play. Only three NL clubs tried fewer steals than the Braves at 95 (they made 64), and he bunts an average amount.

However, Gonzalez may be mistaken for leaving left-handed pitchers Paul Maholm and Scott Downs off the roster for this series. Even when the Dodgers were on their 42-8 run, a left-hander as good as Maholm or Downs could cut them down. Especially with Matt Kemp off their roster, the Dodgers are vulnerable to left-handers. Among the key Dodgers hitters, Carl Crawford (.210 against left-handers), A.J. Ellis (.193), Andre Ethier (.221), Juan Uribe (.237), Jerry Hairston (.179) and Michael Young (.257) all are 30 points or more worse against left-handed pitching, and only rookie Yasiel Puig, among the key batters, is significantly better against lefties.

The Dodgers were 30-42 through June 21, then they hit that 42-8 streak, then they were 20-20 the rest of the way. It is true that most winning teams have two or three good runs of six weeks that account for how many more they win than lose during the course of the season, but 42-8 is a freak occurrence. We haven't seen it in more than 70 years. So, it is hard to go into the playoffs thinking the Dodgers are that 42-8 team.

And it is especially hard considering that Puig, one of the key figures during 42-8, hasn't been such a phenomenon since then. During the Dodgers' 20-20 finish, Puig batted .235 (31 for 132). With Kemp out for the postseason and Ethier probably limited to a pinch-hitting role during this round of games, the Dodgers are a $220 million payroll that's putting Skip Schumaker in center field and a .235 hitter who might do something silly in right field.

Before, during and after 42-8, the engine of this Dodgers team was the front three in their starting rotation: Clayton Kershaw (16-9, 1.83), Zack Greinke (15-4, 2.63) and Hyun-jin Ryu (14-8, 3.00). If these fellows make their pitches, no one is beating them. They'll strike out a dozen hitters in every game and win the series easily. Dodgers pitchers were second in the NL in strikeouts (1,292), so they match up well against Braves batters who struck out as much as any in the league. But if Dodgers pitchers are just a little off, the Braves hitters will make them pay, and the Braves have enough pitching to make that stand up.

For all of their star power offensively, the Dodgers didn't add up to the sum of their parts. Among NL teams, they were third in batting average (.264), third in on-base percentage (.326) and fourth in OPS (.722), but only seventh in runs (649). Of all the offensive players the Dodgers picked up during their celebrated shopping spree last summer, the only real star right now is shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who is every bit the hitter he was when he was as an MVP candidate in 2009. Ramirez batted .345 this year with a 1.040 OPS, and he was just as good with pitches coming from either side.

But Ramirez is long from being a Gold Glover at short. In fact, the whole left side of the Dodgers defense has never been good this season, and it stands to be a serious problem in a postseason context. The Dodgers will not beat any good teams in any games that depend on them playing balls hit towards left field. Fortunately for the Dodgers, most of Atlanta's key hitters -- particularly McCann, Freeman and Heyward -- are left-handed bats not known for staying inside the ball and hitting the other way.

The Dodgers will go as far in this series as their starting pitchers take them. The Braves are the better pick here, because they are stronger all around. But if your pitching  is better, the rest doesn't matter, and the Dodgers have the better chance of having better pitching.

Over in the NL Central series, the Pirates are the sentimental favorite and the Cardinals are the team that has had it too good for too long, which makes the Cardinals rather a prohibitive favorite. The Cardinals have won five rounds of playoffs in the last two years. They know what they are doing here. They also won the struggle with the Pirates and Reds for the NL Central title this year.

Even with Allen Craig likely to miss the entire postseason with a foot injury, the Cardinals have the deepest batting order of all the teams remaining across the major leagues. Almost everyone on this team hits. Sadly, almost no one on this team catches the ball. Consider that catcher Yadier Molina (2.1 defensive WAR), shortstop Pete Kozma (1.3) and second baseman Matt Carpenter (0.3) all are plus performers on defense by that metric. Yet, the Cardinals added up to -5.3 defensive WAR.

If the Pirates can pitch and not hit the ball too much up the middle, they will have a puncher's chance. And they do have a certain magic. Many commentators at PNC Park for the Pirates' wildcard win against the Reds say the crowd had an unmistakable effect. A lot of juice runs through that club right now. The Pirates just finished their first winning season in 21 years and Pittsburgh's NFL team is in the tank, so the baseball club is taking on a lot of good will.

We also know that the Pirates can pitch, finishing third in the NL with a 3.27 staff ERA. And their center fielder, Andrew McCutchen, is the best player still standing across the major leagues with his 8.2 WAR in 2013. While we're looking for reasons to like the Pirates, consider that they're not really the same offensive team that finished eighth in NL OPS (.709) or ninth in runs (634) since they added Marlon Byrd in August.

At least they shouldn't be that same club. Here's what's funny about the addition of Byrd, who replaced a succession of weaker bats in right field. After the Pirates picked him up, he batted .318 and an .843 OPS in 30 games. And the Pirates still batted only .238 in September, and they had the same .709 OPS in September that they had for the whole season. So, where would the Pirates be without him? And is there a chance that additional games in the postseason will give the Pittsburgh offense time to register growth?

Against the Cardinals, maybe not. Turns out that two frequent right fielders for the Pirates pre-Byrd -- Garrett Jones and Jose Tabata -- hit pretty well this year against St. Louis. Tabata batted .378 (17 for 45) with a 1.005 OPS, while Jones batted .321 (17 for 53) with three homers and a .995 OPS. Against the Cardinals this year, Byrd batted .333 (11 for 33) with three homers and a 1.088 OPS. We shouldn't be too surprised if Jones often gets the nod over newly acquired Justin Morneau at first base in this series. Putting Tabata's bat into these lineups will be more difficult.

The Cardinals did not jack up Pittsburgh pitching this year, batting .248 with a .658 OPS and only five homers in 19 games. In fact, half of their batting order was pretty weak against the Pirates in 2013. David Freese batted .154 (eight for 52) with a .555 OPS, Yadier Molina batted .173 (nine for 52) with a .496 OPS, Matt Adams batted .133 (four for 33) with a .345 OPS and Kozma batted .175 (10 for 57) with a .482 OPS.

But the Pirates should beware of Jon Jay, who batted .400 (24 for 60) with a .964 OPS against them this season. Other Pirate killers in the St. Louis lineup this year were Carlos Beltran, who bashed them for .297 (19 for 64) with an .836 OPS, and Matt Holliday, who hit Pittsburgh for .342 (26 for 76) and an .813 OPS.

Individual St. Louis pitchers also were decidedly mixed in their results this year against the Pirates. Adam Wainwright made three starts and covered 21 innings with a 3.00 ERA. Joe Kelly pitched 21 1/3 innings with a 2.53 ERA against the Pirates. But Jake Westbrook, Shelby Miller and Lance Lynn all appeared in at least three games this year against Pittsburgh, and all of them resulted in ERA readings above 5.00.

The Cardinals led the NL in scoring (783 runs) despite eschewing two of the best known techniques for scoring -- the home run and the stolen base. Among NL clubs, the Cardinals were 13th in homers (125), and they stole the fewest bases (45) in the fewest stolen base attempts (67). The secret, of course, is that they keep the line moving. The Cardinals led the NL in on-base percentage (.342) and they had the second fewest strikeouts (14).

And there is this indisputable point that is somehow controversial: The Cardinals hit like no one else with runners in scoring position and two out (two-out RISP). The controversy, of course, bears on whether clutch hitting, like hitting homers or reaching base or stealing bases or not striking out, is a repeatable skill. Research suggests that it isn't.

And if it isn't, then it's fair to expect that the Cardinals won't keep doing it as they have all season, that their clutch hitting is fundamentally lucky and their luck could run out an any time. With a week left in the regular season, we wondered aloud if their luck were about to expire.

But it certainly didn't expire during that final week, when, with two-out RISP, the Cardinals raised their batting average .301 to .305, raised their OPS from .813 to .821 and scored 17 runs in six games.

It is the nature of the question, though, that it remains. And the answer stands to have much influence on who advances from their series with the Pirates.

Puig needs to cool it, or he'll cool down the Dodgers

Yasiel Puig, 22, is a wonder for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have become powerful contenders through his energetic style of play. As the competition becomes more serious, though, it becomes a question of whether his erratic style of play will derail the Dodgers' championship bid.

Yasiel Puig is hitting .352 for the Los Angeles Dodgers and winning games dramatically. But some of his dramas are potentially damaging (Ron Reiring/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The saga of Yasiel Puig brings up a lot of the old dualities concerning the relationship between genius and reality.

Of course, "genius" isn't typically the word to describe dominance on the baseball field, and anyone who finds himself constantly groaning about Puig's reckless throws and base running misadventures will agree that genius is no part of his game. Nor is Puig's expression of the game especially original. It's just endlessly dramatic, perpetually thrilling and consistently inspiring. Maddening, too. But we'll take it.

By now, everyone knows that Puig showed up at Marlins Park in Miami Tuesday 35 minutes before stretching, a little bit after the second bus arrived from the hotel. Traditionally, players who don't take either of the buses from the hotel, whether because they have other transport or because they stay at other locations, are required to be at the yard before the second bus arrives. Puig has a home in Miami and reportedly was caught in traffic. As Dodgers manager Don Mattingly told reporters, it happens.

So, Mattingly fined Puig the usual nominal amount, which is usually about $500, and benched the young star, which he was going to do, anyway. Puig was on an zero-for-11 and hadn't taken a day off since Aug. 4. Of course, his tardy appearance was huge news.

So, then, was his at-bat in the eighth inning, when he homered off the bench against the Miami Marlins to break a 4-4 tie and trigger a 6-4 Dodgers victory.

Moments like that are the upside with Puig, who was batting .352 with a .979 OPS. Puig was batting .353 against left-handers and .351 against right-handers with 12 homers in 261 at-bats -- seven of his homers coming in the sixth inning or later.

But it's only because Puig has such a flair for the dramatic that the Dodgers, or any other team, would put up with his warts, which include a tendency to show up veteran teammates on the field, throwing to the wrong base so he can show off his arm and running into outs as he attempts to show off his speed. Which is to say nothing of his harrowing confrontations with umpires.

Puig is untamed, flouting the conventions of the game, only to make the game his own in the end. Of course, that works against teams like the Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins, who have been losing all year long. In the playoffs, though, when all the teams you play are good, weaknesses not only are exposed, but they are exploited. When the playoffs come around, the Dodgers will lose a lot more from Puig's vices than they will gain from his virtues. The game is based in failure, and the fear remains that Puig will bring more failure on himself than he or his team can overcome.

Thus, the pundits have offered us two schools of thought about Yasiel Puig. One, which might be represented by MLB.com's Richard Justice, says leave the kid alone and let him be himself. Perhaps it is because of Puig's exuberance that the Dodgers have done as well as they have (50-20) since he came to the big leagues. The other, which might be represented by Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times, says the Dodgers need to harness Puig and get him under control before he kills them in the postseason.

The inclination here is to agree with Plaschke. Puig will never reach his potential, nor will the Dodgers reach theirs, so long as they can't bring his game under control. In particular, these confrontations with umpires really need to stop. If he starts going badly, then calls start going against him, and if he's still missing cut-off men and running into outs, he's not going to be a very good player, at all.

The Dodgers do need Matt Kemp back, but not to remove Puig from the lineup. Indeed, as recent outings against David Price, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels have reminded us, a good left-handed starting pitcher is the best antidote to the Dodgers. The Dodgers will need Puig and Kemp in the lineup simultaneously to handle left-handed pitching.

But if Puig doesn't learn, or isn't taught, how to handle his emotions and harness his game, there's a real good chance that it won't end well. For all the promise and excitement that Puig has brought to the Dodgers with his upside, his downside can still keep them from realizing that promise and excitement in their fullest manifestations.

Inside the numbers of the Dodgers' 40-8 surge

Breaking down the Dodgers' last 48 games, of which they have won 40, it seems as if there is no kind of a game or circumstance in which the Dodgers are likely to lose. The Dodgers are defying every tried and true indicator out there. No matter who scores first, the Dodgers are likely to win. No matter who hits the most, the Dodgers are likely to win. No matter how little the Dodgers score, they're likely to win.

These days, the Dodgers are winning games that teams just don't win (public domain image).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Let's just say something unpleasant right off the top: The Dodgers aren't really this good. No team is really this good.

The Dodgers have won 40 of their last 48 games, the first time any team has done that at any point in any season in 71 years. This is historic stuff we're seeing out there, night after night. With wins in their next two games -- and their scheduled pitchers are Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw -- the Dodgers would become only the fifth team ever to win 42 of 50 games. During this run, the Dodgers are 12-2 against clubs that are positioned, right now, to be in the playoffs.

Much virtual ink has been spilled on explanations for how this team has become so formidable so quickly. Remember, if you will, that the Dodgers were 73-89 in their last year's worth of games when they started play on June 22, the day they began this historic surge. The team included most of these same players for most of that time. They gave no indication of being able to win. There were injuries, of course, but there also have been injuries since. They've done almost all of this without Matt Kemp, after all.

Anyway, the ink that has been spilled, virtual and otherwise, is for naught, because the explanation for what has changed with the Dodgers is simple.

Everything. There’s simply no point in trying to isolate causes or reasons, because everything is going absolutely right for the Dodgers like we’ve never seen it go right for anybody.

There is no aspect of the game at which the Dodgers aren't dramatically improved and playing very well. And they're lucky. Just say it. The Dodgers are lucky. Carlos Marmol pitched two shutout innings for them in their 5-4, 12-inning win against the New York Mets Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium. The Chicago Cubs couldn't wait to get rid of Marmol, and now he's notching big outs for the hottest team in the game.

Attempting to quantify this remarkable run by the Dodgers, we shall extrapolate from a section of records commonly found in the game notes provided to the media by each team before every game. This stuff is wild.

For example, before June 22, the Dodgers were 21-17 in games during which they scored first. Not very good. Year by year, the team that scores first wins about 65 percent of the time. From June 22, though, the Dodgers are 28-0 when they score first. That's an awful lot better than 65 percent. When the opponent scores first, the Dodgers were 9-25 through June 21. Since then, they are 12-8, which is just a couple ticks worse than teams have generally done through the years when they score first.

Through June 21, the Dodgers were 23-7 when they led after six innings. Since then, they are 28-0. Through June 21, the Dodgers were 25-4 when they led after seven innings. Since then, they are 28-0. Through June 21, the Dodgers were 28-2 when they led after eight innings. Since then, they are 30-0. When the opponent led through six, the Dodgers were 0-26 through June 21. Since then, they are 5-8. When the Dodgers trailed through seven, the Dodgers were 0-29 before the surge and they're 4-8 since. When the Dodgers trailed through eight, they were 0-33 and they're 4-8 since. Notice that those eight losses in each case are the only eight losses, so no one has come back on them.

When games were tied after seven, the Dodgers were 5-8 through June 21, and they were 2-6 when they were tied after eight. Since then, the Dodgers are 8-1 and 6-1 under those circumstances. Before June 22, they were 3-4 in extra innings. Since, they are 4-0. The Dodgers had 11 comeback wins through June 21, and they have 15 since. In games decided in the final at-bat, the Dodgers were 1-5. Since June 21, they are 4-0. In one-run games, the Dodgers were 7-12 through June 21. Since then, they are 12-0.

Winning every time they score first, winning 60 percent of the time when the other team scores first, winning one-third of the time when they trail after seven innings, the Dodgers are winning games that teams just don't win. And there are many more such examples.

Presumably, the team with the most hits will win most of the time. That certainly was true in Dodgers games before June 22. The Dodgers were 22-10 when they had more hits than the opponent and 6-25 when they had fewer hits. From that point though, it doesn't matter who gets the most hits, because the Dodgers are likely to win. Starting with June 22, the Dodgers are 29-2 when they have the most hits, and a pretty snappy 10-5 when the other team has more hits. Somehow, the Dodgers were only 16-15 when they had 10 or more hits through June 21. Since then, they are 25-1 when they collect at least 10 hits.

Other measures give us an even sharper sense of how much better the Dodgers are playing. For example, through June 21, they were 17-18 when they didn't make an error. So, not only did they tend to squander errorless fielding, but they were errorless in fewer than half of their games. Since June 21, they are 24-4 when they make no errors, so they are errorless 58.33 percent of the time and they win almost all of them.

Through June 21, the Dodgers were 22-20 when they homered and 7-4 when they homered twice or more. Since then, the Dodgers are 24-2 when they homer and 11-1 when they homer more than once. Through June 21, by the way, the Dodgers batted around twice all year. Since then, they have batted around five times.

Remember how the Dodgers used to squander quality starts? Through June 21, the Dodgers were 21-16 when their guy went six or more innings and allowed three or fewer runs. Thus, only 29.2 percent of their games were quality start victories. Since then, the Dodgers are 26-3 when they get a quality start, so in 54.2 percent of their games the Dodgers received a quality start and won.

Decades of reading media game notes have made one truism clear, especially in the National League. The tipping point between winning and losing is scoring four runs as opposed to scoring three. Just as surely as the sun rises every day, team after team after team will have a winning record when it scores four or more, and a losing record when it scores three or less. Even an excellent team is in a jittery position when it scores three runs. Consider the Atlanta Braves, who have the National League's best record at 74-47. The Braves are second in league ERA at 3.20 and second in league scoring at 4.50 runs per game. But when the Braves score three runs or fewer, they are 15-38, and when they score exactly three, they're 8-10. When they score four or more, they're 58-9.

It would be helpful to see some good numbers on the matter, but when the league ERA is around 4.00, it would seem that four runs is where most games will tip. Consider the Houston Astros, who are 39-81. They can't even win one-third of their games. But when the Astros score four or more, they're 28-28. When they score three or fewer, they're 11-53.

You get the idea. The team that scores four or more has an excellent chance of winning. Even the Astros break even when they score four or more. And the team that scores three or fewer probably will lose. Even the Braves lose when they score three or fewer.

Now dig. Through June 21, the Dodgers were 11-33 when they scored three or fewer. And they were 19-9 when the scored four or more. They also were 24-9 when they allowed three or fewer and 6-33 when they allowed four or more. Since June 21, not surprisingly (and not even remarkably, considering some of the other numbers we've seen), the Dodgers are 29-1 when they score four or more and 29-3 when they allow three or fewer. But they're also 16-7 when they score three or fewer 10-5 when they allow four or more.

Those last two numbers are the most stunning of all. You just don't see teams win, let alone win two-thirds of the time, when they score three runs or fewer, or when they allow four runs or more. Call it magic, call it history, call it luck, call it damned good baseball, call it anything. But know this. It won't last. It's can't. That's nothing against the Dodgers. No team is this good.

Dodgers bashing everyone -- except left-handed starters

The Dodgers would seem to be unstoppable right now, winning 26 of their last 32 games and improving their standing by 12 games in five weeks. But there is this matter about failing to hit left-handed starters that defies easy explanation.

Contrary to what one might think, Andre Ethier is not the problem for the Dodgers as they struggle against left-handed starters (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Dodgers are what it's all about in baseball right now, winning 26 of their last 32, winning when they strike out 20 times, winning against teams that appeared in the 2012 playoffs, winning everywhere they go.

From a low point of 30-42 and 9 1/2 games out of first place on June 21, the Dodgers have soared to 56-48 and a 2 1/2-game lead on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West. Against teams that played in last year’s postseason, the Dodgers are 11-2 during this run. Hits make headlines, and the Dodgers are making plenty of both, batting .285, hitting 35 homers and scoring five runs per game during this 32-game romp.

However, hard as it is to find failure in this Dodgers surge, their 1-0 win at Dodger Stadium against the Cincinnati Reds on July 28 illustrated a flaw. The Dodgers continue to struggle against left-handed starting pitchers, and especially against good left-handed starters. In that 1-0 win on Sunday, the Dodgers struck out 20 times, their most since they moved to Los Angeles in 1958. Reds starter Tony Cingrani struck out 11 of them in seven innings.

During these last 32 games, the Dodgers have faced nine left-handed starters, and they have won their share, going 7-2. However, that's mostly a gift of their own outstanding pitching, as their batting has been little help in these games.

Here's the line for left-handed starters against the Dodgers during the run: 54 2/3 innings, 45 hits, 21 runs, 19 earned runs, 16 walks and 60 strikeouts. Left-handed starters are throwing a 3.13 ERA at the Dodgers during this period, with a WHIP of 1.116.

And this includes three real clunkers pitched to the Dodgers by left-handers of little or no distinction: Mike Kickham of the San Francisco Giants, Drew Pomeranz of the Colorado Rockies and Tyler Skaggs of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Throw those out, and the other six left-handed starts against the Dodgers have issued this line: 42 innings, 22 hits, nine runs, eight earned, eight walks and 48 strikeouts, which comes out to an ERA of 1.75 and a WHIP of 0.731.

In the 23 games started against the Dodgers by right-handers, they have scored 5.56 runs per game. In the nine games started against the Dodgers by left-handers, they have scored 3.67 runs per game.

A couple of peculiarities go along with this. For one, the Dodgers actually are one of the best hitting teams in the National League against left-handers. Their .261 batting average against lefties is best in the league, their .321 on-base percentage ranks third, their .401 slugging average ranks third and their .721 OPS ranks second. For another, their top producers aren't bad at all against lefties. Yasiel Puig is batting .365 against righties and .392 against lefties. Adrian Gonzalez is batting .310 against righties and .279 against lefties. Hanley Ramirez is batting .405 against righties and .311 against lefties.

Even Andre Ethier, who has never been known for hitting lefties, has done his part during this run of games. Though Ethier's .241 batting average against lefties this year closely tracks his lifetime .238 average against them, he is six-for-19 with a walk and five strikeouts against left-handed starters during these last 32 games.

But one can see how the Dodgers weaken against left-handers once they go down the lineup from Puig. Against right-handed starters, the Dodgers line up, two through five, with Puig, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. This group has demonstrated some prodigious feats of hitting in that alignment against right-handers. But we see that Gonzalez is just a little less productive against lefties, then Ramirez follows him by being nearly 100 batting average points worse against lefties. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly moves Ethier down the order or benches him against lefties and the No. 5 hitter in his place -- be he Jerry Hairston, Juan Uribe, or whoever -- simply doesn't produce.

Why Mattingly ever thinks Uribe is a good selection against left-handers, by the way, is a mystery. Mattingly has managed Uribe since the start of the 2011 season, during which time Uribe is a .167 batter against left-handers (31-for-186), including .204 this year (11-for-54).

While Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti seeks trade deadline upgrades, it would seem that a strong right-handed bat is an obvious target. But the Dodgers might not even have to particularly worry about that, because they have Matt Kemp waiting on the disabled list. No one destroys left-handers like Kemp, who batted .363 against them last season and has hit them for a .340 average throughout his career.

It's hard to criticize the Dodgers right now, and they certainly have the magic. Even striking out 20 times against Cingrani and the Reds, for example, their own pitching, led by lefty starter Chris Campuano, was even better, and there was that man, Puig, with the homer to win it in the 11th.

But they do have a vulnerability here, and a playoff opponent that can present them with left-handed pitches could cause them problems. Assuming, of course, that they reach the playoffs. Thus, there's still a good deal of this season riding on Matt Kemp. There always is. Even, it seems, when he is out of sight.