Mariners clobber Rays for third AL traveling title

The Seattle Mariners, the only team to win multiple American League traveling championships this year, did it for the third time this season with a three-game sweep at home against the Tampa Bay Rays during the weekend. The Mariners outscored the Rays 28-7.

Mike Zunino drove in 10 runs for the Seattle Mariners during their three-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

The Seattle Mariners captured their third American League traveling championship of the season over the weekend, trouncing the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-game sweep. 

Neither the series not any game within it was ever close. The tightest contest was a 7-1 Seattle win on Sunday. The Mariners outscored the Rays 28-7 over the three games in Seattle. 

The Rays failed in their bid to become the first team to defend the American League traveler twice this year. They won it by taking two of three from the Minnesota Twins in Minnesota May 26-28, then defended it by winning two of three from the Texas Rangers in Texas May 29-June 1. 

The Mariners are the only club that has won the AL traveler more than once this season. They last held it with a defense May 5-7 against the Rangers in Seattle, only to lose four straight against the Toronto Blue Jays in Toronto May 11-14. 

The Mariners batted .362 and OPSed .971 in the three games against Tampa Bay (totals from baseball-reference.com). Mike Zunino led the way for Seattle with 10 RBI, including seven in a 9-2 victory on June 3. Nelson Cruz hit two homers for Seattle, leading the club.

Seattle will put the American League traveler up against Minnesota in a three-game series at home Tuesday through Thursday. The Mariners are second in the AL with 11 games of title defense, following the Angels, who have 16.

Mariners best of a weak lot in Happy Chandler West

Nobody in the Happy Chandler West was good enough to even be in the expanded playoffs across big league baseball. Somebody had to win, though. It was the Seattle Mariners.

In a division with no 2016 playoff clubs, the Seattle Mariners were the best in the Happy Chandler West.

The Mariners, at 33-34 and .579, finished four games ahead of the San Francisco Giants, who did barely better than even with their 40-39 record.

Seattle secures first title in tight MacPhail League

The Toronto Blue Jays, across the full schedule, were the best team in the Lee MacPhail League. But considering only the games within those clubs, the title went to the Seattle Mariners.

Though the Lee MacPhail League included a very strong 2016 postseason club in the Toronto Blue Jays, the Jays were outgunned for the league championship by the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners finished 31-22 and .585, two games ahead of the Blue Jays and their 34-29, .540 production.

But it was a tightly packed league, with all seven teams finishing within seven games of each other. The basement club, the Baltimore Orioles, were 30-35 and .462, seven games out of first place.

Iwakuma no-no preserves Aaron for Mariners

Seattle Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma threw the first no-hitter in the history of any traveling trophy Wednesday, leading the Seattle Mariners to a 3-0 win against the Baltimore Orioles in Seattle. Iwakuma's gem gave the Mariners their first Henry Aaron Award title defense in more than four years. A no-hitter Wednesday for Hisashi Iwakuma has the Mariners riding as high as they've ever been in the Henry Aaron competition (LiAnna Davis/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license). By BILL PETERSON Big Leagues in Los Angeles Hisashi Iwakuma made traveling trophy history Wednesday, recording the first no-hitter ever in any of the competitions to clinch a Henry Aaron Award title defense for the Seattle Mariners. Iwakuma struck out seven and walked three in the first complete game of his career, a 3-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles in Seattle. With the win, the Mariners captured two-of-three from the Orioles, mounting their first defense of the Aaron, which they captured by winning two-of-three from the Texas Rangers at home last weekend. The Mariners lost the opener of this series, 3-2, Monday, but stormed back with two victories to defend the prize. The heroics began Tuesday, when Austin Jackson singled with the bases loaded in the bottom of the tenth inning to give the Mariners a 6-5 victory. Iwakuma missed most of three months this season with a strained right latissimus dorsi muscle. Being 34 with a contract expiring at the end of the season, he could have been dealt to a contender in return for prospects at the trading deadline. Instead, he has brought Henry Aaron glory to the Northwest with the best performance of his career. It was only the second Aaron defense for the Mariners since the interleague traveling distinction was initiated in 2011. That year, the Mariners won the Aaron from the San Diego Padres by taking two of three in Seattle July 1-3, marking the first time that the Aaron switched leagues. The Mariners defended the prize by taking two of three on the road from the Oakland Athletics July 4-6, but they lost it to the Angels in a four-game sweep July 7-10 in Anaheim. The Mariners hadn't held the Aaron since winning it in a four-game split from the Minnesota Twins July 25-28, 2013, in Seattle, taking the tiebreaker, 16-13. The Mariners immediately lost the Aaron in a three-game sweep on the road against the Boston Red Sox. That marked the last time the Mariners even played for the Aaron before last weekend. The Mariners won two other Aarons in 2012, but failed to defend it either time. Now, Seattle will take the Aaron on the road for three games against the Boston Red Sox this weekend. 2015 Henry Aaron Award standings
	W	L	P	T	G	D	A
DODGERS	15	10	8	1	22	6	7
San Francisco	15	15	8	1	17	4	6
ANGELS	14	5	6	1	16	4	5
Texas	12	10	7	2	15	3	5
San Diego	10	7	5	1	13	3	4
Baltimore	7	6	4	1	7	1	1
Pittsburgh	6	3	3	1	6	1	2
Milwaukee	5	7	4	1	6	1	2
Kansas City	5	2	3	1	5	1	2
Boston	3	7	3	1	3	0	1
Seattle	6	4	3	1	3	1	1
Washington	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
Colorado	6	10	5	0	0	0	0
Arizona	2	7	3	0	0	0	0
New York (AL)	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
Chicago (NL)	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
Miami	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
Minnesota	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
Atlanta	3	4	2	0	0	0	0
Cleveland	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
Houston	0	3	1	0	0	0	0

Numbers in bold indicate league leaders.

W — Wins. L — Losses. P — Times played for title. T — Titles won. G — Number of games that team held title after winning it. D — Title defenses. A — Title defense attempts. Standings are given in order of games holding the title.

2015 Henry Aaron Award results 
(There is no tiebreaker for the Aaron. The champion keeps it unless the challenger wins outright. However, the runs are given for series ending in ties).

San Francisco 2, Arizona 1 — April 6-8 at Arizona.
San Diego 3, San Francisco 1 — April 10-12 at San Diego.
San Diego 2, Arizona 1 — April 13-15 at San Diego.
San Diego 2, Chicago (NL) 1 — April 17-19 at Chicago.
San Diego 2, Colorado 2 — April 20-23 at Denver (San Diego, 26-16).
DODGERS 2, San Diego 1 — April 24-26 at San Diego.
DODGERS 2, San Francisco 1 — April 27-29 at Los Angeles.
DODGERS 3, Arizona 0 — May 1-3 at Los Angeles.
DODGERS 2, Milwaukee 2 — May 4-7 at Milwaukee (DODGERS, 28-16).
DODGERS 2, Colorado 0 — May 8-10 at Colorado.
DODGERS 2, Miami 1 — May 11-13 at Los Angeles.
DODGERS 2, Colorado 2 — May 14-17 (Colorado, 16-12).
San Francisco 3, DODGERS 0 — May 19-21 at San Francisco.
San Francisco 2, Colorado 2 — May 22-24 at Denver (Colorado, 31-26).
San Francisco 3, Milwaukee 0 — May 25-27 at Milwaukee.
San Francisco 2, Atlanta 2 — May 28-31 at San Francisco (Atlanta, 17-16).
Pittsburgh 3, San Francisco 0 — June 1-3 at San Francisco.
Pittsburgh 2, Atlanta 1 — June 5-7 at Atlanta.
Milwaukee 2, Pittsburgh 1 — June 8-10 at Pittsburgh.
Milwaukee 2, Washington 2 — June 11-14 at Milwaukee (Washington, 20-16).
Kansas City 2, Milwaukee 0 — June 15-16 at Milwaukee.
Kansas City 2, Milwaukee 0 — June 17-18 at Kansas City.
Boston 2, Kansas City 1 — June 19-21 at Kansas City.
Baltimore 2, Boston 1 — June 23-25 at Boston.
Baltimore 3, Cleveland 0 — June 26-28 at Baltimore.
Texas 3, Baltimore 1 — June 29-July 2 at Baltimore.
ANGELS 3, Texas 0 — July 3-5 at Arlington.
ANGELS 2, Colorado 0 — July 7-8 at Denver.
ANGELS 2, Seattle 2 — July 9-12 at Seattle (Angels, 20-19).
ANGELS 4, Boston 0 — July 17-20 at Anaheim.
ANGELS 2, Minnesota 1 — July 21-23 at Anaheim.
Texas 2, ANGELS 1 — July 24-26 at Anaheim.
Texas 2, New York (AL) 2 — July 27-30 at Arlington (New York, 35-19).
Texas 2, San Francisco 1 — July 31-August 2 at Arlington.
Texas 3, Houston 0 — August 3-5 at Arlington.
Seattle 2, Texas 1 — August 7-9 at Seattle.
Seattle 2, Baltimore 1 — August 7-9 at Seattle.

West League: Who are these Houston Astros?

The Houston Astros lead not only the American League West at the moment, but also the West League, though in a very close race. The Astros made a big move during the past week with a successful road trip through Seattle and Oakland.

Houston Astros left-hander Dallas Keuchel is about as good as any pitcher going right now (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Just who are these Houston Astros who we spy now at the top of the West League standings?

They don't seem like much. They are 11th in the 15-team American League in scoring with 70 runs. And, though they are second in the American League with a 3.18 ERA, most of their pitchers are pretty weak in that basic category.

But when you have a left-hander getting people out the way Dallas Keuchel is doing it, it's going to make those team numbers look good. Keuchel has allowed only two earned runs in 29 innings — both of those runs in the same game — ranging over four starts. He's only 2-0 after a no-decision on April 24, when he tossed nine shutout innings before the Astros rallied for a 5-4 win at Oakland in 11 innings.

So, Keuchel has a 0.62 ERA. He has given up only 13 hits, four per nine innings.

The Astros have won eight of their last 10, all in the West League, and this last week has been quite a feat — five wins on a six-game road swing through Seattle and Oakland. The Astros began the week 2 1/2 games behind the Dodgers, but the Dodgers lost three straight in San Francisco before winning two of three in San Diego. So, the Astros now have a lead of one-half game in the West League and the league's South Division.

The San Francisco Giants now visit the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium the first half of this week, so we shall see if the Dodgers pin them back.

The Arizona Diamondbacks still lead the North Division by one-half game on the Colorado Rockies, but neither club is setting the West on fire. The Diamondbacks are 8-7 in the league.

Games of April 20
San Diego 14, at Colorado 3.
Oakland 6, at ANGELS 3.
Houston 7, at Seattle 5.

Games of April 21
San Diego 7, at Colorado 6.
Texas 7, at Arizona 1.
at ANGELS 14, Oakland 1.
Houston 6, at Seattle 3.
at San Francisco 6, Los Angeles (NL) 2.

Games of April 22
Oakland 9, at ANGELS 2.
at Seattle 3, Houston 2.
at Arizona 8, Texas 5.
at Colorado 5, San Diego 4.
at San Francisco 3, DODGERS 2.a

Games of April 23
at ANGELS 2, Oakland 0.
at San Francisco 3, DODGERS 2, 10 innings.

Games of April 24
at ANGELS 3, Texas 2.
Houston 5, at Oakland 4, 11 innings.
at Colorado 6, San Francisco 4.
DODGERS 3, at San Diego 0.

Games of April 25
at ANGELS 4, Texas 1.
Houston 9, at Oakland 3.
San Francisco 5, Colorado 4, 11 innings.
DODGERS 11, at San Diego 8.

Games of April 26
Texas 5, at ANGELS 4, 11 innings
Houston 7, at Oakland 6.
at San Diego 3, DODGERS 1.

2011 Second Division standings and summary

The Texas Rangers had the best record in the Second Division for 2011, but they only played two teams, so they don't get promoted. Instead, the Cincinnati Reds go to the top level, just two years after starting these standings in the Third Division. The Los Angeles Dodgers, just relegated for 2011, are going back to the top in 2012.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Texas Rangers finished 2011 with the best record in the Second Division. However ...

A couple of important rules concerning promotion and relegation in these standings need to be addressed.

One, which doesn't apply here, states that no team can be promoted without at least 10 wins, and no team can be relegated without at least 10 losses. Obviously, the schedules within these divisions can't be balanced, because we're playing them off the actual Major League schedules and, sometimes, a team just won't play enough to produce a representative performance. It would seem wrong for a 9-3 team to be promoted over a team that goes 21-9, and it would seem pretty cheap to demote the 3-9 team instead of the 9-21 team.

The second rule, which does apply here, says a team must play against at least three teams in its division to be promoted or relegated. In this case, the Rangers played only two teams -- the Seattle Mariners, against whom they finished 15-4, and the Atlanta Braves, against whom they were 2-1. Should a team be promoted to any division, let alone the First Division, for going 15-4 against a terrible Seattle team in 2011? We don't think so, either.

So, the Rangers can claim the Second Division championship, but they can't be promoted. Instead, the Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds are moving up. The Dodgers, of course, had just been demoted to the second tier after the 2010 season. The Reds, who started this thing as a Third Division team in 2010, already will be in the First Division for 2012.

Going down in 2012, are the Mariners, who had those struggles with the Rangers, also going 0-3 against the Braves and 5-1 against the San Diego Padres. The Padres really got a lot of work in the Second Division, and didn't do it very well, finishing 25-38. They actually finished 1 1/2 games more out of first place than the Mariners, but their .397 percentage topped the Mariners (.321).

2010 Second Division standings and summary

The four clubs in this group that went to the Major League playoffs in 2010 also composed the top half of the Second Division standings. In the end, the World Series, a 4-1 victory for the San Francisco Giants over the Texas Rangers, earned the Giants a First Division promotion for 2011 and denied that advance to the Rangers.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

As the eight clubs going to the 2009 playoffs were assigned to the First Division for 2010, this Second Division group that didn't make the 2009 playoffs might have been ticketed for greater things to come.

In fact, four of these clubs — the Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers — reached the Major League playoffs. The Giants and Rangers went to the World Series, with the Giants winning.

Riding a 7-2 playoff record against Second Division clubs, the Giants were the clear Second Division winner, and that playoff run did it. In the end, the Rays, Braves and Rangers all finished within two games of the Giants, but there's only room to promote the Giants and Rays to the First Division for 2011.

The Seattle Mariners, whose 61-101 regular season record was the worst in the Major Leagues, barely escaped relegation. The two relegants for 2011 are the Florida Marlins (80-82) and the Detroit Tigers (81-81).

The Tigers are instructive about how a season looks different when we consider only certain opponents. They only played against Atlanta, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Texas within the Second Division, finishing 8-19. Which means they were 73-62 against all other clubs, which doesn't really matter here.

Good news and bad for teams missing playoffs

The last two teams eliminated this year from playoff contention have two different stories to tell. The Seattle Mariners made a big move up after years of straggling in the AL West. The Milwaukee Brewers made an even bigger move up in the NL Central, but they then made a huge move down, casting themselves as the most unfortunate flops of the regular season.

Ryan Braun's production disappeared during the last weeks of the season, and the Milwaukee Brewers are missing the playoffs after leading the National League Central for much of the year (Johnmaxmena2/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The playoff races just finished advanced ten clubs to the postseason, and it also eliminated a few. 

The two that lasted the longest before going away were the Seattle Mariners in the American League and the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League. Each, therefore, has a sad story to tell, but the Mariners still can spin the outcome positively, and the Brewers can't.

The Mariners made absolutely no sense signing free agent Robinson Cano for 10 years at $240 million, considering how many holes they had to fill in their offensive lineup. But Cano produced a terrific season (142 OPS-plus, 6.4 WAR), just what the bubblegum card says he'll do, and the Mariners had a chance because of him.

The Mariners began the year making no other big changes in their lineup, though they added Kendrys Morales and Austin Jackson as the year went along. Even with reinforcements, the Mariners actually lost nearly three games of offensive WAR from 2013 (down to 17.2 from 20.1) and the Mariners also declined in the American League rankings in OPS, falling from tenth (.695) to last (.676). They  improved from 12th with 624 runs to 11th with 634 runs.

The Mariners would have been lost without Cano. Baseball-reference.com puts him at 34 Runs Above Average (RAA) in 2014, and there's no one else in that lineup except for Kyle Seager (29 RAA). The Mariners, as a club, are minus-44 RAA.

So, credit Cano for his super-human feat of preventing Seattle's tepid offense from getting worse, but the Mariners wouldn't have climbed without much better pitching behind Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. The Mariners replaced a lot of poor starts from 2013 with better starts this year from James Paxton (120 ERA-plus) and Taijuan Walker (142 ERA-plus). Chris Young (100) and Roenis Elias (95) weren't bad. 

Less heralded than the Cano acquisition last winter was the Mariners' free-agent signing of Fernando Rodney as their closer. But it was no less important. Rodney filled a need with 48 saves. The rest of the bullpen lined up behind him. The Mariners shot up to first in American League ERA (3.17) from 13th (4.31).

The Mariners won only 71 games in 2013, and you can see how much Cano and Rodney brought to their mix, bringing them to 87 wins in 2014. Going forward with the Mariners, we wonder if the good pitching in the middle of their staff this year was a fluke, but we're sure the club's terrible offense isn't. They mattered on the last day of the season for the first time in a while, and they might matter a little more if they can add a bat or two.

The more maddening case is the Brewers, who managed to madden us even though no one actually expected them to climb in a division that sent three other clubs to the playoffs last year. The Brewers don't have a No. 1 starter, and they've never filled the hole left at first base when Prince Fielder departed as a free agent three years ago. Then, the season started, and the Brewers went out 20-7 through April 29 with a 6 1/2-game lead in the NL Central and a 2.59 staff ERA. Halfway through the season, they were still in first place, 49-32 with a 5 1/2-game lead.

The Brewers were baffling. They didn't seem that good, and you knew the Cardinals were hanging around. But the Brewers were solid during the second half of 2013 (42-39), and they did that without Ryan Braun and Francisco Rodriguez. Maybe they were on to something.

They weren't. By the midway point of the season, the Brewers already inflated their staff ERA by a full run to 3.59. Their staff ERA for their second 81 games was 3.75, putting their full-season ERA at 3.67 in a league averaging 3.66.

And their hitting disappeared. First 81 games this year, the Brewers scored 4.6 runs per game and slashed .260/.319/.419 /.738 with 86 homers. Second 81 games, they were 3.5 runs per game, .240/.302 /.374/.676 and 64 homers. They ended up a league average team offensively, averaging right between those extremes overall, but that second half batting dip, combined with pitching that was just average, resulted in the Brewers going 33-48 down the last 81 games.

The bulk of that margin was a horrendous final six weeks of the season, during which the Brewers were 11-25 and they fell like a stone through the standings. That run began as the first-place club with a 2 1/2 game lead, and it ended in third place, eight games out. Braun really vanished down that stretch – splitting .236/.314/.358/.672 with four homers.

So, the Brewers limped in at 82-80, barely knowing what hit them, except that they didn't hit anything. But there's something else worth noting. Take a look at these standings from the National League Central division, counting only the last 81 games of 2013 and the first 81 games of 2014 for each club.

               W  L

St. Louis    92  70

Milwaukee  91  71

Cincinnati   87  75

Pittsburgh   84  78

Chicago      66  96

Turns out, the Brewers had a pretty good year in there. It's just not a year that anyone would recognize, roughly July 2013 through June 2014. But it's a solid year of games showing a club that can put it together for a period of time. It helps a lot if all those games are during the same season. And the problem for the Brewers is that, in each of the last two years, they have stunk up half of their season. Just as they tumbled at the end of 2014, they started 2013 at 32-49 in their first 81 games. In those 162 games during the past two years, the Brewers are 65-97, a last-place team.

This season, in a sense, the Brewers were both a first-place team and a last-place team. In the postseason, they are no place.

Is the extra pitcher worth it?

Like the Oakland Athletics, the Detroit Tigers added a premium pitcher to a deep rotation at the non-waiver trading deadline and took a player out of their daily lineup to do it. Again, the questions about the Athletics' deal apply to the Tigers, even if Austin Jackson isn't as big of a loss as Yoenis Cespedes.

The Detroit Tigers made a deep starting rotation deeper by acquiring David Price from the Tampa Bay Rays. Is it worthwhile to deepen a deep starting rotation for the postseason (Keith Allison [original], UCinternational [crop]/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license)?


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The non-waiver trading deadline passed last week with quite a lot of smoke. Where there's smoke, there ought to be fire, but it remains to be seen if any of these deals will wind up so hot.

We've already discussed the deadline deal between the Oakland Athletics and the Boston Red Sox, in which left-handed pitcher Jon Lester and left fielder Yoenis Cespedes switched coasts. We don't believe it will add up as a plus for the Athletics, who added the pitcher at the expense of the mid-lineup hitter.

Another deal in much the same spirit occurred between three clubs – the Detroit Tigers, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Seattle Mariners. At the All-Star break, the Rays were nine games down in a division without a great club, which led us to believe the Rays would ride it out and take a crack at winning. But Thursday's three-wheeled deal perhaps was more than the Rays could refuse. They gave up left-hander David Price, their top pitcher, who wound up with the Detroit Tigers. The Rays brought in middle infielder Nick Franklin from the Mariners, while lefty Drew Smyly and 18-year-old Class A shortstop Willy Adames came in from Detroit. The Mariners bagged center fielder Austin Jackson from the Tigers to complete the trade.

Again, we scratch our heads. This time, it's about the Tigers, though not so much as we scratched them over Oakland's acquisition of Lester. The Tigers wound up giving quite a lot for Price – a good starting pitcher, their center fielder and a good prospect. But the Tigers already had depth in their starting rotation, more than any other club in the American League, including Oakland, and it is puzzling that they would pay the price they paid to add depth to a deep rotation when the postseason specifically doesn't reward depth in the starting rotation. The Tigers already had Justin Verlander (9-9, 4.79, 0.4 WAR), Max Scherzer (13-3, 3.27, 4.2), Rick Porcello (12-5, 3.24, 3.7) and Anibal Sanchez (7-5, 3.57, 2.4), along with Smyly (6-9, 3.93, 1.8). They have replaced Smyly with Price (11-8, 3.11, 2.7) at the immediate cost of Jackson (.730 OPS, 1.8 WAR).

A fourth consecutive American League Central title for the Tigers is all but a fait accompli. They entered Monday's games with a five-game lead on the Kansas City Royals and no one seriously believes the second-place club here can mount a challenge unless the Tigers were to entirely collapse. In any case, the Tigers are too far along to be selling out for division championships. They're trying to make that step they haven't made since 1984. They're trying to win the World Series.

So, this trade, for the Tigers, is about the playoffs. And the same kind of analysis that we applied to the Athletics applies to the Tigers. We can figure now that the front three pitchers for the Tigers during the postseason will be Price, Verlander and Scherzer. The fourth man will be Porcello. In that case, Sanchez becomes a non-entity during the postseason.

Again, we raise the question: Is it worth it for the Tigers to add Price to their postseason rotation if it means 1) Fewer starts for a fine pitcher in Porcello; 2) No starts for a fine pitcher in Sanchez, and; 3) Jackson has to be replaced in the every day lineup by someone who isn't as good?

Price is a terrific pitcher. No one can or should dispute that. The question isn't whether Price is worth having, but whether he's worth having for a club that already had enough good starters already, and whether it's worth Price to take starts away from, for example, Porcello or Sanchez. And the Tigers also have deprived themselves of a decent center fielder whose offense and defense will not be easily replaced.

We've been rather hammering on this lately. We argued on July 31 that the Dodgers should not make this sort of trade, we argued on Aug. 1 that the Athletics should not have made that sort of trade, and we argue here, today, that the Tigers should not have made this sort of trade.

We have here two instances of the wrong kind of club making the wrong kind of trade. To credit Oakland general manager Billy Beane and Detroit general manager David Dombrowski, at least they traded for top quality pitchers, unlike so many general managers we've seen at trade deadline. The criticism here is that both clubs already had enough quality and depth in their rotations to prosper in the postseason, so they ended up paying heavily for entities they do not need, and to the detriment of their offensive and defensive platoons.

The good news for the Tigers is that Price is under contract for 2015, so, unlike Oakland's deal for Lester, this one isn't a rental. The Tigers have Price in 2015, and they can build their 2015 club with that in mind.

As always, baseball is unpredictable. Among the game's pleasures is that it invites us to make predictions about the future, then, in time, tells us if our predictions are on target.

In the weeks leading to the trade deadline, for example, it required absolutely no ingenuity to find commentaries bemoaning that expanded playoffs and recent changes to draft compensation rules were killing this non-waiver trading period. In July, it turned out, five players were traded right as or after they were named All-Stars in their leagues – Cespedes, Price, Lester, Jeff Samardzija (from the Chicago Cubs to Oakland) and Huston Street (from the San Diego Padres to the Angels).

Lots of interesting changes here. We're predicting that the Angels will emerge from the clearing smoke better than anyone involved in an All-Star trade, that the Tigers didn't help themselves and that the Athletics hurt themselves. Perhaps the next few months will prove us wrong. Or not.

AL West: WAR says A's, spring injuries disagree

Looking at the 2013 WAR values for players on the 2014 Opening Day rosters for the clubs of the American League West, the Oakland Athletics would have to be favored. But early injuries are among the reasons the Los Angeles Angels might have a chance.

Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane and his staff have accumulated more high WAR value players than any other club in the game (Brett Farmiloe/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Following is a team-by-team look at each team in the American League West entering the 2014 season, listing each team's players who finished in the top 240 among position players and the top 240 pitchers by 2013 WAR.

It is a new season and the slate is wiped clean. In fact, the injuries of spring training already have forced equivocations and commentaries to demonstrate where these lists might steer us wrong. But they are a starting point.

We list each team in the division, giving each club's "top half" position players by 2013 WAR, its "second-level" position players, its top-level pitchers and second-level pitchers. For the top-half position players, we give the player's position and where he ranked at the position across big league baseball in 2013 WAR, then the actual WAR value for the player. For every other category, we give the player's overall 2013 WAR ranking, understanding that pitchers and position players are ranked separately.

More about all of this, including some important clarifications, can be found here. Bear in mind, though, that the 2013 WAR totals for each club only include these top players, and every club will have players with little, no or negative WAR value that actually would drag down its totals.

By the following readings, alone, the Oakland Athletics would be the favorites to win the AL West. However, the world is changing all the time.

Oakland Athletics (49.4 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 1B: Brandon Moss, 15, 2.2. 2B: Eric Sogard, 15, 2.1. SS: Jed Lowrie, 15, 2.3. 3B: Josh Donaldson, 1, 8.0. RF: Josh Reddick, 11, 2.6. CF: Coco Crisp, 8, 4.3. LF: Craig Gentry, 6, 3.6. Total: seven players, 25.3 WAR.

Second-level players — Nick Punto, IF, 126, 2.2. Derek Norris, C,149. 1.8. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, 155, 1.7. John Jaso, C, 197, 1.1. Stephen Vogt, C, 0.7. Total: Five players, 7.5 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — A.J. Griffin, 73, 2.3. Jarrod Parker, 99, 1.9. Total: two pitchers, 4.2 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Jim Johnson, 123, 1.5. Ryan Cook, 135, 1.4. Sonny Gray, 146, 1.4. Dan Otero, 148, 1.3. Sean Doolittle, 156, 1.2. Dan Straily, 165, 1.2. Scott Kazmir, 173, 1.1. Luke Gregerson, 214, 0.7. Tommy Milone, 231, 0.6. Total: Nine pitchers, 10.4 WAR.

Take a look at those top-level pitchers. Neither is with the club as it opens the season. Parker is gone for the year with Tommy John surgery, and Griffin is down right now with elbow problems of his own. It's also not sufficiently appreciated that the A's are without Bartolo Colon, who tossed a pretty 5.0 WAR for them in 2013 before signing as a free agent with the New York Mets. Thus, the A's are without their top three starting pitchers from 2013, and two of them aren't coming back this year.

However, the A's have a whopping nine pitchers on that second-level list, and some of them, like Gray, Straily and, maybe, Kazmir, figure to be much more productive in 2014. But pitching depth, which the A's have, is not the same as pitching dominance, which they lack.

On the position side, this club is solid, though not spectacular. The A's have a top-half player at every position except catcher. Of course, catching is a little different, because some clubs (like the A's) will split that position and, therefore, not place a catcher in the top 15. However, Norris, Jaso and Vogt totaled 3.6 WAR in 2013, which is rock solid.

The A's should be the division favorites going into 2014, but their pitching is wobbly at the top levels, and that's where they appear to be the most vulnerable. Their biggest strength is a deep bullpen, which they will need.

Texas Rangers (42.6 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — SS: Elvis Andrus, 4, 4.3. 3B: Adrian Beltre, 6, 5.5. CF: Leonys Martin, 12, 3.4. LF: Shin-Soo Choo, 3, 4.2. Total: Four players, 17.4 WAR.

Second-level players — Alex Rios, OF, 135, 2.1. Prince Fielder, 1B, 158, 1.7. Geovany Soto, C, 172, 1.4. Total: three players, 5.2 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Yu Darvish, 10, 5.8. Derek Holland, 36, 3.3. Neal Cotts, 59, 2.6. Tanner Scheppers, 74, 2.3. Alexi Ogando, 77, 2.2. Martin Perez, 114, 1.6. Total: six pitchers, 17.8 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Robbie Ross, 156, 1.2. Jason Frasor, 168, 1.2. Total: two pitchers, 2.4 WAR.

The Rangers are starting the season without their front two starting pitchers from 2013. Darvish is down for a while with neck stiffness, and Holland is out until at least the All-Star break with a microfracture in one knee. And the Rangers can't offset these losses with the kind of pitching depth that Oakland has.

Additionally, the Rangers have disabled Soto and a couple good guys not on this list, lefty Matt Harrison and infielder Jurickson Profar. The Rangers also traded second baseman Ian Kinsler and his 2013 WAR of 5.0 for Fielder and his 1.7 WAR in 2013. If Fielder can bounce back to All-Star level productivity, he will make up the difference for the Rangers losing Kinsler, but that wouldn't be enough to make up for losing Holland.

We'll see how the Rangers patch it together. The suspicion here is that this club has seen better days. However, they do get a little reprieve in that the main division competition, the Oakland Athletics, are dealing with severe depletions among their top-level pitchers.

Los Angeles Angels (36.3 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 2B: Howie Kendrick, 9, 3.4. CF: Mike Trout, 1, 9.2. Total: two players, 12.6 WAR.

Second-level players — Chris Iannetta, C, 145, 1.9. Erick Aybar, SS, 155, 1.7. Josh Hamilton, OF, 165, 1.5. Albert Pujols, 1B, 169, 1.5. Hank Conger, C, 199, 1.1. J.B. Shuck, OF, 217, 0.9. Total: six players, 8.6 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Jered Weaver, 29, 3.7. C.J. Wilson, 35, 3.4. Hector Santiago, 55, 2.8. Joe Smith, 103, 1.8. Total: four pitchers, 11.7 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Dane De La Rosa, 150, 1.3. Garrett Richards, 201, 0.9. Michael Kohn, 231, 0.6. Ernesto Frieri, 239, 0.6. Total: four pitchers, 3.4 WAR.

No club in this division has more legitimate room for improvement than the Angels. First, this club has famously under-performing stars from 2013, like Hamilton and Pujols, both of whom look good this spring. For that matter, Aybar should be much better than 1.7 WAR.

On the pitching side, Weaver is a fascinating case who just keeps going as his velocity declines, and Wilson is about as good of a No. 2 starter as you can find. And take a look at Santiago, ranked 55th among all pitchers in 2013 WAR. If we go through the starting pitchers and say, "OK, the top 30 starters by WAR are No. 1 starters (one for each club), and the next 30 are No. 2 starters ... ," then Santiago shapes up as a legitimate No. 2. He still needs to establish that kind of durability, but the potential is there.

Unlike the three clubs listed above, the Angels broke camp without serious injuries to their pitching staff. This club has started badly for the last two seasons. But, in view of problems facing Oakland, Texas and Seattle concerning the disabled list, the conditions are in place for the Angels to go off on a good start. If the Angels can work up an early lather, they can be the club many thought they would be for the last two years.

Seattle Mariners (35.1 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 2B: Robinson Cano, 1, 7.6; Nick Franklin, 13, 2.3. 3B: Kyle Seager, 8, 3.9. Total: three players, 13.8 WAR.

Second-level players — Brad Miller, SS, 141, 2.0. Michael Saunders, OF, 180, 1.3. Dustin Ackley, OF, 201, 1.1. Justin Smoak, 1B, 203, 1.1. Total: four players, 5.5 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Hisashi Iwakuma, 3, 7.0. Felix Hernandez, 13, 5.2. Yoervis Medina, 98, 1.9.  Total: four pitchers, 15.9 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — James Paxton, 173, 1.1. Stephen Pryor, 237, 0.6. Total: two pitchers, 1.7 WAR.

It remains mysterious why the Mariners sprung $240 million over 10 years for Cano when they already might have their second baseman of the next 10 years in Franklin. The Mariners ended up putting Frankin in a shortstop competition with Nick Miller, who ran a nice 2.0 WAR in 76 games last season. Franklin lost, so his 2.3 WAR begins the season at Tacoma.

Iwakuma is down for the first month of the season after a spring training injury, another big blow. The Mariners have some interesting young pitchers, including Paxton.

In total, this is looking like a badly built team with only one decent right-handed hitter, Corey Hart, who didn't play at all last season. The Mariners are a fourth-place team paying Cano $24 million per year, and they would be a fourth-place team without that contract.

Houston Astros (22.2 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — C: Jason Castro, 3, 4.5. Totals: one player, 4.5 WAR.

Second-level players — Matt Dominguez, 3B, 124, 2.2. Dexter Fowler, CF, 133, 2.1. Jose Altuve, 2B, 206, 1.1. Totals: three players, 5.4 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Jarred Cosart, 62, 2.6. Jesse Crain, 69, 2.4. Brett Oberholzer, 81, 2.1. Scott Feldman, 118, 1.6. Chad Qualls, 107, 1.8. Totals: Five pitchers, 10.5 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Kevin Chapman, 204, 0.8. Totals: one pitcher, 0.8 WAR.

Three straight years of not even winning 60 games make the Astros the least competent operation of the last 50 years and, unlike the New York Mets of the early 1960s, they're well past being an expansion team.

The Astros have added some meat to their pitching staff with Crain, Feldman and Qualls. But they're still not close to fielding a competitive Major League club.

50 wins on July 1: Playoffs likely for Boston, Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Boston Red Sox each have 50 wins on July 1. History says that means each will last to at least the playoffs. History also says the World Championship is an unlikely outcome for either club.

Boston's Dustin Pedroia, left, and Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen, right (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

At the start of business on July 1, we note two major surprises on top of the baseball standings. The Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates not only are both in first place, but both already have banked at least 50 victories.

The Pirates are, 51-30, the best record in the game. The Red Sox, 50-34, hold the best record in the American League.

Neither team has significantly invested in free agent signings. Nor has either team been through what we might call a phased rebuilding.

The Pirates have lurched along without a winning record for 20 years. In 2010, they won 57 games for the whole season. However, in the last few years, after going on nearly two decades of drought in their player development system, they have produced quality performers such as Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez and Starling Marte. They have improved themselves around the edges by adding in the likes of Russell Martin, Gaby Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez and Francisco Liriano. The Pirates brought in a firm rotation anchor with the A.J. Burnett acquisition, in which they helped the New York Yankees dump part of a salary. They really have improved by inches, rather than miles. And they finally found a manager, Clint Hurdle, who has a winning touch. Put it all together and the Pirates lead a very competitive National League Central division.

The Red Sox were a force in the American League from the start of the present divisional alignment until September 2011, when they had their infamous collapse with a 7-20 finish. They figured out last year, when they won 69 games, that their clubhouse was too wealthy and complacent. They shed salaries and brought in veteran war horses like Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli, really not exciting anyone. But all of those players have a little bit of magic this year, and huge contributions from bit players like Daniel Nava, Jose Iglesias and Mike Carp have made the Red Sox a deep club. And they have two stars, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz, who are playing like it.

Neither team walked in with blue prints making so much sense that anyone could see that they just had to work. But the standings tell us they're working. And history suggests something more: they're probably going to keep working. At least to the playoffs. Starting with 1996, the first full season under the present divisional alignment, 23 teams have arrived on July 1 with 50 or more wins. Only four have failed to reach the playoffs. All but six ended up winning their divisions. Of those 17 division winners, nine reached 100 or more victories.

Once the playoffs begin, though, it's a different story. Of the 23 clubs starting from 1995 that reached 50 wins by July 1, only six reached the World Series. And only two of those won it. In 1998, the New York Yankees had an incredible year, finishing 114-48 and winning their first of three straight World Series. Then, we saw a flash in the pan, the 2005 Chicago White Sox, who started strong and ended strong, sweeping the Houston Astros in a four-game World Series, little to be heard from again.

Here's the list, year by year.

1996: The Atlanta Braves were 50-30 on July 1, but only three games ahead of the Montreal Expos in the National League East. The Braves ended 96-66, won the NL East, then lost the World Series to the New York Yankees in six games after winning the first two in New York by a combined score of 16-1.

1997: The Baltimore Orioles were 51-27 in July 1, 5 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees in the American League East. The Braves were 52-29, 3 1/2 up on the Florida Marlins in the NL East. The Orioles held on and won their division by two games over the Yankees at 98-64. But the Orioles lost the American League Championship Series (ALCS) in six games to the Cleveland Indians. The Braves continued their surge to finish 101-61, nine games ahead of the Marlins in the NL East. However, the Marlins got the better of the Braves in the National League Championship Series (NLCS), then beat Cleveland in a seven-game World Series.

1998: The Braves, again, were dominant, 54-29 on July 1, 8 1/2 games ahead of the New York Mets in the NL East. But the Yankees were legendary, 56-20, 10 games ahead of Boston in the AL East. Both teams continued their dominance through the regular season. The Braves finished 106-56, 18 games in front of the Mets. But they lost to the San Diego Padres in a six-game NLCS. The Yankees finished 114-48, the best 162-game record in history to that point, 22 games ahead of the Red Sox. The Yankees went on to enjoy an 11-2 postseason, including a four-game sweep of the Padres in the World Series.

1999: The Indians were 50-26 on July 1, leading the AL Central by 12 1/2 games over the Chicago White Sox. They finished 97-65, 21 1/2 games ahead of Chicago, but fell in a five-game divisional series to the wild card Red Sox.

2000: This time, it was the White Sox turn to start fast in the AL Central, reaching 50-29 on July 1 for a 9 1/2-game lead on the Indians. The Indians surged in the second half, but the White Sox still won the division at 95-67 before losing the first round of the playoffs in a three-game sweep by the wild card Seattle Mariners.

2001: It was all about the Mariners, who were 58-21 on July 1, a full 20 games ahead of the Oakland Athletics and the Anaheim Angels. The Mariners did not let up in the second half and finished 116-46, the best record ever for 162 games. But the Athletics were even better in the second half, 64-19, ending with 102 wins and the wild card berth with the AL's second-best record. Both teams knuckled under to the Yankees in the playoffs, the A's in the first round and the Mariners in a five-game ALCS. But the Yankees couldn't complete the run in the shadow of Sept. 11, falling to Arizona in a seven-game World Series.

2002: A very strange year, with four teams hitting 50 wins before July 1. Two of them didn't even reach the playoffs.

In the American League, it was the Yankees (50-31) and the Mariners (51-30). In the National League, it was the Braves (51-30) and the Dodgers (50-31). With their great start, the Mariners still led the Angels by only 3 1/2 and the Athletics by only five games in the NL West. Both teams rallied in the second half. The A's put up a 57-24 and took the division with 103 wins. The Angels claimed the wild card with a 52-30 second half and a 99-63 overall record. The Mariners were only 42-39 after July 1, finishing 10 games behind the Athletics and missing the playoffs completely. The Yankees led the Red Sox by only two on July 1, but kept it up and finished at 104-57, winning the division by 10 1/2 games. The Minnesota Twins beat the Athletics in the first round of the playoffs, while the Angels cut out the Yankees. The Angels beat the Twins in a five-game ALCS before defeating San Francisco in a seven-game World Series.

In the National League, the Braves were off to their typical start and led the Expos by 8 1/2 games in the NL East on July 1. The Dodgers were a similar story to Seattle, leading the NL West by only 1 1/2 games on Arizona and 4 1/2 games on the Giants on July 1. The Dodgers were 42-39 in the second half, during which the Giants and Diamondbacks each won 50. Arizona won the division and San Francisco claimed the wild card. The Dodgers finished third in the division at 92-70. The Braves put up another 50 wins in the second half and finished 101-61, 19 games ahead of Philadelphia. However, the Giants beat the Braves in the divisional round and ultimately lost the World Series to the Angels.

2003: A lot of themes that we've seen in these last few years repeated themselves one final time here. On July 1, the Mariners (53-28), Yankees (52-30) and Braves (51-29) were cruising with comfy divisional leads. Once again, it was not to be for the Mariners. Oakland, down seven games on July 1, were 50-31 from that point, while the Mariners were 40-41. The A's won the AL West at 96-66, three in front of the Mariners, who again  missed the playoffs. The Yankees kept it going, though, winning the AL East by six games at 101-61. The Yankees ultimately won the AL pennant,  beating the wild card Red Sox in a seven-game ALCS. The Braves finished 101-61, winning the NL East by 10 games over the wild card Marlins. But the Braves lost their first playoff round to a Chicago Cubs team that finished the regular season only 88-74. The Marlins, for the second time in seven years, took the wild card to the World Championship, beating the Yankees in a six-game World Series.

2005: The White Sox were 53-24 on July 1, leading Minnesota by 10 1/2 games in the AL Central. Cleveland played a 51-34 second half and put a scare into the Sox, but it was only temporary. The White Sox won the division at 99-63, then finished off an 11-1 postseason by sweeping the Houston Astros in a four-game World Series.

2006: A super hot race took place in the AL Central. On July 1, the White Sox were back at 52-27, but they trailed 55-25 Detroit by 2 1/2 games. The Twins sat in a distant third, 11 games down. But the Twins were 53-31 in the second half and won the division at 96-66, one game ahead of the Tigers. The White Sox fell out of it completely at 90-72. The Tigers went to the World Series, where they lost in five games to an 83-78 St. Louis Cardinals club.

2007: The Angels were the hot starters, 50-31 on July 1 with a four-game lead on Seattle in the AL West. The Angels also had the division's best record for the remainder of the season and won it at 94-68. But the Angels lost in their first playoff round to the Red Sox, who ultimately beat the Colorado Rockies in a four-game World Series.

2008: A new team made the scene here. The Tampa Bay Rays were 50-32 on July 1, 1 1/2 games ahead of Boston in the AL East. In the National League, the Chicago Cubs were 50-33, 2 1/2 up on St. Louis in the NL Central. Both clubs continued their winning ways through September. The Rays won the AL East at 97-65, while the Cubs won the NL Central at 98-64. But the Cubs lost to the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs. The Rays went all the way to the World Series, where they lost to the Philadelphia Phillies in five games.

2011: It was all Phillies through September. On July 1, they were 51-31. At the end of the regular season, they were 102-60, winning the NL East by 13 games on Atlanta. But the Phillies fell to St. Louis in the divisional round, then the Cardinals beat the Texas Rangers in a seven-game World Series.

2012: The Rangers were tearing it up on July 1, 50-29, 6 1/2 games ahead of the second place Angels. But the Athletics were 57-26 after that point to finish 94-68, one game ahead of Texas for the AL West title. The Rangers settled for the second wild card and their dismal finish ended with a one-game loss to the Orioles.

Where we've seen clubs win 50 by July 1, only to lose the division, the circumstances usually involved close competitors who heated up in the second half. As far as the Pirates and Red Sox are concerned, the close competitors part of it is in play. The Pirates are only two games ahead of St. Louis in the NL Central, while the Red Sox are only 2 1/2 ahead of Baltimore in the AL East. Furthermore, the Red Sox and Pirates also have to watch for real challengers from down in the division. The Cincinnati Reds are positioned as the NL's second wild card, though they're 5 1/2 behind Pittsburgh in the NL Central. In the AL East, there is no team that can be counted out.

Thus, the Pirates and Red Sox both are susceptible to being caught. But history says it is unlikely. Until the World Series. If they get that far.