Nationals start strong in First Division

The Washington Nationals play only 15 games this season in the First Division, so they need to make all of them count. Last week, they opened with a three-game sweep on the road against the San Francisco Giants. Next week, they're in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers, who are in the relegation zone.

Ryan Zimmerman led the way offensively for the Washington Nationals this week against the San Francisco Giants (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

In eight years of playing out the promotion/relegation scheme across baseball, it's never been the case that any team played every other team in its division. By contrast, every team plays every other team every year in basketball, hockey and soccer.

Unlike the other sports in which we operate ordinal divisions with promotion and relegation (soccer style, one might say) baseball draws up huge scheduling imbalances that require us to draw up special rules.

The results lead to questions in baseball about what kind of performance should count as good enough to win a division or be promoted, and what should count as a poor enough performance to guarantee relegation.

From the start, it has been stipulated that any team that wins a division or is promoted in the three eight-team divisions (First, Second and Third) must have played against at least three other teams in the division and must have won at least 10 games. For a team to be demoted from these divisions, a team must have played at least three of the other teams and lost at least 10 games. It also was established that two teams will be promoted from each of these divisions (except the First) and two will be demoted from these divisions every year.

The rules were introduced to keep light schedules from unduly influencing promotion and relegation. They have worked well. There are a couple of other rules, which don't need to be addressed here. And the Fourth Division, which has only six teams, involves other rules still.

This comes up because the Washington Nationals are on the docket for only 15 games in the First Division this year. It is the lightest schedule any team has ever had in the First, Second or Third Divisions.

The schedule is light for the Nationals because there are only three National League teams in the First Division (the others are the Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants). Further, the Nationals have only one interleague opponent in the First Division, which is the Texas Rangers.

It all means that the Nationals must win 10 of their 15 games to even be eligible for the First Division championship, if they don't make the playoffs. The trade-off is that the Nats can't be demoted without losing at least 10 games. Keep in mind, though, that the playoffs also count in the baseball ordinals. That's one of the special rules. Last season, they were decisive.

One can see now why the moment is of some importance, for the Nationals finally played in the First Division this week, sweeping three in San Francisco against the Giants. In the next 10 days, the Nats will play six more First Division games. They will play three in Los Angeles against the Dodgers June 5-7 and three at home against the Rangers June 9-11.

By sweeping the Giants in a series made infamous by the Memorial Day brawl centered on Bryce Harper and Hunter Strickland, the Nationals have made all of those games crucial to the First Division race. 

Harper drew the headlines after retaliating against Strickland, who threw at the National star's hip in their first meeting since Harper hit two home runs off him in the 2014 playoffs. But the star for the Nationals was Ryan Zimmerman, who went five-for-12 (.417) with two homers and five RBI in the three games.

Looking here at the standings, one sees the Nationals listed on top at 3-0 with a 1.000 winning percentage, ahead of the Red Sox at 9-4 and .692, even though the Red Sox are a game ahead of the Nationals. Again, we note the imbalance. Most often, the percentage column and the games behind column will match, but not always. If one team wins the percentage column and a different team wins the games column, we declare a split championship. Fair enough.

There is more to note in the First Division standings. Down there on the very bottom are the Texas Rangers, already 2-10. The Rangers appear doomed for demotion. But they have 17 games left in the First Division, so there's still time for them to dig their way out of relegation.

For that to happen, though, the Rangers will need two other teams to collapse. Joining the Rangers in the relegation zone at the moment are the Dodgers at 4-6, all against the Giants. Next week's series with Washington visiting Dodger Stadium looms large at the top and the bottom of the First Division standings.

The Second Division is mostly the way we last found it, with the New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks holding the promotional positions. The relegation zone is crowded, with the Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals all within one-half game of each other. The Pirates and Mets meet this weekend in a key series.

Likewise, the Third Division looks about the same. The Houston Astros have all but written their ticket for promotion. The Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox are scheduled lightly in this division, 23 games for each club, so making the 10-win threshold with a good enough percentage for promotion will challenge each club.

The interesting club here is the Angels, who still are a .500 team across their big league schedule despite numerous injuries. Mike Trout went on the disabled list on May 31 for a thumb surgery.

The good news for the Angels is that they have only six Third Division games in June and July, but 26 such games from Aug. 1 through the end of the season. Trout should be back by Aug. 1. The Angels also hope for the returns of pitchers Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs by then. 

If the Angels can get a healthy club working for the last two months of the season, they're looking at an excellent chance for promotion back to the Second Division. 

The Minnesota Twins took over first place in the Fourth Division last week by going into Baltimore and sweeping three games from the Baltimore Orioles. The Twins beat Baltimore every which way. First, on May 22, the Twins thumped Baltimore, 14-7, with homers by Miguel Sano and Max Kepler. The next day, Ervin Santana pitched a complete-game shutout for a 2-0 win. On the third day, the Twins took a 4-0 lead early and held on for a 4-3 victory.

The sweep doesn't finish Baltimore off, by any means, but it's merely another episode in their snake-bitten stay in the Fourth Division, to which they were banished for their fold in the 2014 American League championship series.

The Orioles began this history in the Fourth Division in 2010 and, despite their success under the field management of Buck Showalter, they have never been promoted past the Third Division.

Angels going great, but others are just as good

Since falling to 62-60 on Aug. 19 and all but eliminating themselves from the playoff race, the Angels are 18-7. And it has been barely enough to keep them alive, because Oakland and Baltimore have been as good or better. Now, the Angels are righted with about two weeks left, but Baltimore has a clear schedule advantage for the second wild card.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

When last we left the Angels four weeks ago, they had suffered three weeks of unfathomably poor pitching, lost 13 of 18 and fell from wild card leader only two games down in the AL West to 62-60 and 4 1/2 games short of any playoff spot.

With 12 of their next 15 coming on the road, including a series each at playoff contenders Detroit and Oakland, the obituaries were being written for the Angels when they began that run on Aug. 21.

Since then, the Angels are playing about as well as anyone in the game, 18-7, including 11-4 on the road. And they've needed every bit of it. If the Angels were 15-10, we would be saying it's too little too late. The Angels would be about six games down for the second wild card with three teams to jump. As it is, they are 2 1/2 behind Baltimore for the second wild card, and no one stands between them.

One has to love how the Angels are playing while also lamenting that it hasn't helped very much. Often enough, a club goes on a hot streak and some feeble nemesis helps out by going on a cold streak. But it doesn't go like that for the Angels.

All the clubs the Angels are or would be trying to catch are as hot as they are, including AL West leader Texas (17-9), first wild card leader Oakland (19-7) and second wild card leader Baltimore (16-9). Thus, for going 18-7, the Angels have only gained 1 1/2 games in the AL West (they are down 7 1/2 games now), they have gained only one game on the first wild card (they are down 4 1/2 games) and they have gained two games on the second wild card (they are down 2 1/2 games).

But the good news runs deeper for the Angels, because they now have their starting rotation back in order, making those wins possible. Since Aug. 19, Zack Greinke has a 1.70 ERA, eating 37 innings with his five starts. Since then, Dan Haren has a 2.35 ERA in five starts covering 30 2/3 innings. Jered Weaver has a 2.73 ERA in four starts. Ervin Santana has a 3.00 ERA in five starts. The worst of the lot is C.J. Wilson, who has a 4.40 ERA in his last five starts, but the Angels have won all five of those starts.

And, again, the Angels will need all of it to stay in the race to the end, because outside factors are not in their favor. It seems they never are this year.

The Angels play three at home this week against the Texas Rangers, then three at home against the Chicago White Sox. That’s two division leaders. Baltimore, the team the Angels are trying to catch, stays on the road this week for three at Seattle and three at Boston. That’s two teams that are playing out the string. Next week, the Orioles go home for four against Toronto and three against Boston. The Angels start next week at home against Seattle, then they go to Texas for three.

Remember, the Angels need to gain 2 ½ games on the Orioles, basically in the next two weeks. Those schedules are not promising. The Orioles will close out their season with three at Tampa Bay, while the Angels will close with three at Seattle. But it’s hard to believe the Angels will be in striking distance as the last series begins.

The playoff race is shaping up as something of a hard luck story for the Angels. The moment they went to the trouble to trade for Greinke, the pitching rotation tanked. Then, the Angels righted themselves and went on a roll, but everyone they needed to catch matched them practically win for win since Aug. 20. So, now the Angels have crawled into view of the playoffs, but that view is obstructed by Baltimore’s very easy schedule.

Wait ‘til next year for the Angels? Probably, but with all the talent they’ve put together, we’ve still got two interesting weeks of this year. This club still has a chance. It just isn’t a very good one, unless Baltimore unaccountably collapses.

Angels starters sputter through August

On paper, and often on the field, the Angels have featured one of the best starting rotations in baseball, from the back to the front. Now, all of a sudden, their veteran starting superstars are falling behind hitters. The Angels have 40 games to climb into the wild-card playoff, but the next 15 are critical.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Less than a week after the non-waiver trading deadline, the Angels had all of the baseball world thinking they were about as good as it gets. And they were.

The Angels were, and remain, a club with jolting offensive capacity, very good defense and a starting rotation of front-line talent.

But there was something about the Angels that gave pause going back into July. Because the Texas Rangers are so strong atop the AL West, the Angels were going to the playoffs as a wild-card team, meaning as a road team. And July taught the Angels that they would not succeed that way. They lost three of four at Detroit, two of three at New York, then two of three at home against Tampa Bay.

To succeed in the playoffs, the Angels knew they needed another piece, so they added Zack Greinke. We think they overpaid for Greinke because a wild-card playoff position isn't worth the talent they gave up. However, we totally understand the serious motivation for bringing in Greinke. This organization is trying hard to win.

The next big indicator of road warring would be a four-game series at Texas July 30-August 2. The Angels won the first two. Good sign. And at the end of business on July 31, they were 57-47, a mere two games out of first place in the American League West. This space said right as the series started that the Angels had no chance of catching Texas. But after winning those first two games, the Angels could have left Arlington tied for first place.

What has happened to the Angels since Aug. 1 almost defies any possibility that it could have been predicted. Veteran pitchers who know how to pitch and who have been top-level producers suddenly are falling behind hitters. The manager, Mike Scioscia, says the pitchers aren't "controlling counts."

Since that high point of their season, the Angels now have lost 13 of their last 18, falling all the way to nine games behind the Rangers. Indeed, the Angels also have fallen beneath the Oakland Athletics in the division and the wild card race, where the Angels led at that high point. But they now have dropped also behind Detroit, Tampa Bay and Baltimore and they must now make up 4 1/2 games just to nudge into the second wild card.

In August, C.J. Wilson is 0-2 in four starts, allowing 24 runs (20 earned) in 21 2/3 innings. Opposing hitters are torching him for a .326 batting average and a .972 OPS. In August, Dan Haren is 0-2 in three starts, allowing 13 runs (11 earned) in 13 innings. Against 61 batters in August, Haren has allowed four homers. In August, Greinke is 1-1 in four starts, but he has allowed 20 runs (all earned) in 25 innings, allowing a .316 batting average and an .892 OPS.

Even the great Jered Weaver has kicked in a bad start, giving up nine runs in three innings on Aug. 17 against Tampa Bay. Oddly, the only reliable Angels starter in August is Ervin Santana, who is 1-0 three starts with 19.1 innings, a 3.26 ERA, and a .192 OBA.

Haren has struggled all year with a bad back. Wilson's trouble is more recent, as is Greinke's. On the whole, then, the collapse of the Angels' starting rotation is a very new development. Perhaps, also, it is to be short-lived.

But it can't live for any longer if the Angels are to remain serious contenders. They now face 12 of their next 15 on the road, including trips to Detroit and Oakland for wild-card scraps. One hates to think of the Angels pitchers, with their recent failures, taking on the green monster in Fenway Park, but that's the task, Tuesday through Thursday.

If these starting pitchers don't come around right now, the Angels are going to bury themselves in a hurry. Kind of a strange ultimatum for a pitching staff that has always been four deep in quality pitchers (if not quality results), then added a fifth.

Of all that might have side-tracked the Angels this year, is it going to end up being big-salaried starting pitchers losing track of the strike zone and throwing up home runs? Sadly, we might soon find out.

Angels hits, missing in April, showing up now

Weeks ago, the Angels couldn't hit, and they lost more than they should. Now, the Angels can't pitch, and they win more than they should. What happened to all those hits the Angels didn't get in April? They are getting them now.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

For sheer versatility in a baseball team, you can't beat the Angels. About six weeks ago, it seemed every game they were in was a pitchers duel, and the Angels lost more than they should. Now, every game they're in is a slugfest, and the Angels win more than they should.

It's not the optimum situation for the Angels, who will fight with the Baltimore Orioles three more times at the Big A this weekend before taking a breather for the All-Star break. They would like more security about their starting rotation, which used to be about 80 percent reliable and now is more like 50 percent reliable. One figures that Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson will succeed in their turns, but the rest has become trouble.

Dan Haren finally had to give in and go to the disabled list with back trouble that has plagued him all season. His effectiveness has been limited to 6-8, 4.79. Ervin Santana's effectiveness has been even more limited, to 4-9 and 5.75. The bad news there, perhaps, is that Santana's trouble doesn't have a physical explanation, so far as we know. Haren and Santana have, between them, pitched 207 innings of the 735 1/3 innings logged so far by the staff, about 28 percent of the innings. But they have combined to give up 36 homers, nearly half of the 75 home runs allowed by the entire staff.

Further into the rotation, we find Garrett Richards, a young right hander who is going to struggle from time to time. And the Angels still don't know when their No. 5 starter, Jerome Williams, is coming off the disabled list.

But the Angels still won the first of four with the Orioles Thursday night, 9-7. Finally, the Angels' offense is paying them back for all those misfires at the start of the season. They weren't as poor of a hitting club as they appeared when they were losing 3-2 all the time, and now they're not as good of a hitting team as they appear while they win 9-7.

Angels pitchers have allowed 60 runs in their last eight games. In the general run of baseball, that's an eight-game losing streak. At best, one would expect six losses in those eight games. But the Angels actually have won four of them, even though they scored only 46 runs.

Though the Angels began the year with starting pitching as their strongest component, the bats are carrying them through this most victorious stretch of the season. In the last four weeks, June 8-July 5, the Angels are batting .308. In those 25 games, of which the Angels won 17, they have flashed a well rounded offense with 33 homers and 26 steals in 31 attempts. The only downside to their offense is an average of 2.7 walks per game, which is up very slightly from the 2.4 walks per game they were averaging when they fired hitting coach Mickey Hatcher in mid-May.

This surge in the Angels' offense coincides with the installation of Torii Hunter as the No. 2 hitter in Colorado on June 8. A month earlier, of course, along came Mike Trout, the closest thing we have in the game to Rickey Henderson right now, and he took over the leadoff position. Then, Albert Pujols began to hit in the No. 3 hole. And then it became a really sharp idea to slide Hunter into the No. 2 position, because he doesn't just hit the ball to right field, but he hits the ball hard to right field.

Now, with Kendrys Morales hitting cleanup and Mark Trumbo in the No. 5 position, this top half of the Angels batting order can produce with anybody. Behold the numbers for Trout through Trumbo, one through five, from June 8 until now:

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
Trout	104	29	39	6	0	5	16	10	0	24	1	0	2	0	17	0	.375	.427	.577	1.004	.442
Hunter	94	18	29	1	0	4	18	5	0	21	1	0	1	4	2	0	.309	.347	.447	.793	.357
Pujols	94	18	32	8	0	5	18	11	4	9	2	0	2	3	3	0	.340	.413	.585	.998	.329
Morales	71	6	21	5	0	1	9	3	0	18	2	0	0	2	0	0	.296	.342	.408	.751	.385
Trumbo	100	13	25	1	2	8	24	6	2	20	1	0	0	3	0	1	.250	.299	.540	.839	.236

On the question of whether replacing Hatcher with Jim Eppel has made a material difference in the club's offense, we offer no answers. However, at least coincidentally, the Angels are a much different and better offensive team in the seven weeks since the change. Take a look at this table showing the Angels' per-game averages and rate stats in games through May 15, when Hatcher was fired, along with the same numbers for the games since then:

Games	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Through May 15	33.4	3.6	8.4	1.6	0.1	0.9	3.4	2.4	0.1	6.7	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.8	0.5	0.1	.250	.301	.379	.680
Since May 15	34.6	5.1	9.9	1.7	0.2	1.2	4.8	2.9	0.2	6.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.8	1.0	0.3	.287	.344	.451	.795

Between hits and walks, the Angels are putting two more men on base every day, and now they're hitting an extra home run for every three they used to hit. If one or two of those extra runners is on when one of those extra homers comes up, it changes a game. Notice also that the Angels are way up in their base stealing efforts, which is getting them over, and their sacrifice flies, which is getting them in.

Of course, Hatcher and Eppel have less to do with this than Trout, Hunter, Pujols and company. If you were ever worried that the Angels would get back those hits they didn't get in April, they're getting them back now. And just when they need them.

Pujols debut marks just the start for Angels

Despite frequent predictions of imminent glory, the real payout from the Angels' acquisition of Albert Pujols should come some time after 2012.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in LA

The Angels aren't the Angels anymore. They are Albert Pujols and whatever the Angels can put around him. It's a proven approach. The St. Louis Cardinals won two world championships that way.

How the Angels build around Pujols will be their story for this and the next several seasons. The Angels take on big contracts every year. The whole promise of Pujols is that he is a different kind of contract, a different kind of player, an anchor who can hold a team through rough waters. But he is not a one-man team and the team he joins now is two years removed from its last finish less than ten games down in the American League West.

The Angels start their season at home Friday night against the Kansas City Royals. Pujols will bat third and play first base. He will be the best player on the field. But he's not, yet, the definitive centerpiece of his team. He is a solution in the midst of a problem. Right now, he's a huge contract added to the Angels' stack of contracts, some of which are among the worst in the game. When you realize the Angels are on the hook to Vernon Wells for $21 million in each of the next three years, that $240 million over ten years for Pujols doesn't sound like such a desperate overbid.

According to Cot's Contracts, the Angels are paying Pujols only $12 million in 2012 -- less than they are paying Wells, Torii Hunter ($18 million), Jered Weaver ($14 million) and Dan Haren ($12.75 million). Close behind is Ervin Santana ($11.2 million).

After 2012, contracts for Hunter, Bobby Abreu ($9 million in 2012), Erick Aybar ($5.08 million) and Maicer Izturis ($3.8 million) expire. The Angels will have 2013 options for Haren ($15.5 million), Santana ($13 million) and Chris Iannetta ($5 million). They also will have arbitration decisions to make about Kendrys Morales, Jerome Williams, Alberto Callaspo and Hisanori Takahashi.

If the Angels pick up all of those 2013 contract options, they would end this season with around $450 million in salary exposure for future years ending in 2021, the last year of the Pujols deal. That's about $50 million per year for the next nine years. Their new television contract with Fox, reportedly $3 billion over 20 years, pays $150 million per year, $100 million per year more than their old deal. They can cover it.

For all their big contracts right now, in other words, the Angels have incredible flexibility for the future seasons of their contact with Pujols. If the Angels play their cards right, this 2012 club won't be close to their best club in the next ten years. Once the Angels shed their contractual commitments to decaying veterans and replace them with live players, they will take off.

The task of building these clubs nominally goes to General Manager Jerry DiPoto, hired last October, six weeks before the club signed Pujols. With the Angels, though, who calls the shots is as interesting as the shots that are called. Owner Arte Moreno is a big-picture, strong-willed sort who has been influential in recent free agent signings. Manager Mike Scioscia also is known as a strong voice in player personnel moves.

That process has only just begun. Fans should not be surprised if the Angels can't overtake the Texas Rangers this year. They still have a distance to cover. The Angels who Pujols joins have less punch than the Cardinals he left behind.

The Angels who Pujols joins are a solid ten games inferior to the Rangers, as demonstrated by two consecutive seasons ending exactly that way. So, that ten-game difference isn't some random fluxuation of statistical probability. It's the difference between the Rangers and Angels when Pujols signed.

Pre-Pujols, the Angels had one, and only one, strong feature -- the starting rotation front three of Weaver, Haren and Santana. The bullpen was shaky, and still is. Around the regular lineup, the Angels had one, and only one, position -- second base with Howie Kendrick -- for which they did not need an upgrade to average major league productivity for a regular at that position. Pujols brings them up to two.

It's true that the Angels signed C.J. Wilson off the Rangers, improving themselves while weakening their nemesis. We'll see if the Rangers made up for it on their end by going to Japan for Yu Darvish. And don't be too surprised, by the way, if Wilson ends up closing games for the Angels, because a chance remains that they will need someone to do it, and Wilson has done it well.

The Rangers aren't going away quietly. They are an angry, hungry group after two straight pennants without a world championship to show for it. They came within one out of winning it all last year. They've got the ethos to get it done, starting at the very top with the great Nolan Ryan, and they have assembled a much better club for doing it. They’re a serious operation. They're not packing it in over a good offseason for the Angels. They have money, too.

The Angels have just begun to build a true challenger by signing Pujols. They've got intriguing young talents like Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout, and aging pieces like Hunter, Wells and Abreu are starting to fall away.

Pujols will put a jolt into this staggering offense this year. But he doesn't have enough help.  We all remember that he one-manned the Cardinals to gold in 2006, but that was an 82-win team in a weak division prevailing by guile. The more formidable Cardinals of the Pujols years included one or two additional top-notch producers. The Angels don't have that. They won three straight divisions, 2007-2009, basing their offense on expensive veteran star outfielders whose decline we have since witnessed with our own eyes. Only when that team crumbles away and we see a new team built around Pujols will we see the Angels with whom he makes his true mark.

The 2012 season will be a year of transition in Anaheim. It might even be victorious. But for that to happen, Pujols will not be enough and the Angels still probably don’t have enough to go with him. They still need some players reversing the aging process, or some other players accelerating the maturation process. That’s this year. Next year and beyond, they’re going to need new players to go with Pujols.