After Dipoto leaves, Angels nab Aaron, Killebrew

The Angels broke out their bats during the July 4 weekend in Arlington, scoring 33 runs in a three-game sweep of the Texas Rangers. We won't say for sure that the Angels players were glad to see general manager Jerry Dipoto go, but we're pretty sure they weren't upset to see him leave.

Angels slugger Albert Pujols reportedly had words with general manager Jerry Dipoto shortly before the latter resigned (Marianne O'Leary [UC International crop]/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

It's easy to say the wheels are coming off the Angels' season now that general manager Jerry Dipoto has left the building after a much-reported dust-up with the fellows in baseball uniforms. It's much harder to say the wheels are staying on.

We prefer to do things the hard way, so we're going in that direction. An air clearing like this isn't the worst that can happen with a baseball club that's really been flat-lining all season, just winning a couple and then losing a couple, ad nauseum, all the way from the start of April until now.

Not a bad idea to roll a head or two under the circumstances, and Dipoto ended up rolling his own.

In a short run of games since Dipoto gave way on July 1, the Angels have performed well, demolishing the Texas Rangers three straight in Arlington during the July 4 weekend by a combined score of 33-8.

Incidentally, the three-game sweep gave the Angels possession of the Harmon Killebrew Award
and the Henry Aaron Award.

It's easy to say Dipoto's departure must have made the Angels bats happy, at least immediately. How this plays out in the long term is anyone's guess, though it's hard by now to believe the players were thrilled with their former general manager.

One can imagine how it went over with the players when the guy in the polo shirt – the guy who didn't provide a lead-off hitter, or a clean-up hitter, or even a No. 6 hitter, the guy who traded away the old second baseman and didn't replace him, the guy who worked harder at poor-mouthing Josh Hamilton than at replacing him – when that guy went into the clubhouse and told players that the real problem was that the coaches weren't giving them good enough information. One can imagine.

But we don't have to imagine, because the reports tell us that what happened is what we would imagine. At least we know now who's the boss, and it isn't Mike Scioscia, the 15-year manager who's still under contract through 2018 at $6 million per year. Scioscia won the power struggle with Dipoto when Hall-of-Fame-bound first baseman Albert Pujols got his back. When the GM enters the clubhouse to run a meeting with the players and the most expensive and accomplished player on the team basically tells him to do his own job better, it's over.

So, the boss is Pujols, and everyone kind of knew that the moment he signed that 10-year deal for $240 million before the 2012 season. Angels owner Arte Moreno has much more invested in Pujols than in Scioscia or Dipoto. Now Pujols leads the American League with 25 home runs, his credibility is high and the general manager went across him. Cross Scioscia? Part of the general manager's job. Cross Pujols? Probably not the general manager's job.

Compare the situation with what happened last year in Oakland. Reports say a huge conflict arose between their general manager, Billy Beane, and their best player, Josh Donaldson, with manager Bob Melvin in the middle. After the season, Beane traded Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays. Beane has said the conflict did not motivate the trade, and it doesn't even matter. The Athletics will never be so invested in a player that Beane can't trade him for any reason he wants.

By the reports, Dipoto was dissatisfied at how basic scouting information was filtering through the coaching staff to the players. By the reports, Pujols told Dipoto that the roster this year just isn't as good as the roster last year.

We can't judge if Dipoto was right, but we definitely can judge that Pujols was right. The most obvious problem is a dreadful lack of depth in the batting order. When your lineup has Pujols and Mike Trout, but you still have one of the worst offensive teams in the Major Leagues, that's almost an achievement. Even after their hitting explosion in Texas, the Rangers still are 11th of 15 American League teams at 4.10 runs per game.

One doesn't have to be a player to see that the front office has failed his team. Time will tell, for example, if young left-hander Andrew Heaney is ultimately a good return for popular and productive second baseman Howie Kendrick. So far, though, time is saying the Angels are significantly downgraded at second base.

In so many ways, the Angels front office performed terribly throughout the Josh Hamilton saga. When you commit $125 million to a known and admitted drug addict, a constructive approach to a relapse has to be part of the equation. But the Angels didn't see it that way, because they never thought they were committed to $125 million. They thought Hamilton's drug problem would get him suspended without pay, the way performing enhancing drugs (PEDs) are, and that they could weasel out of his contract if he relapsed. When they learned otherwise, they were petulant and indignant.

We don't suppose for one second that Moreno's chaotic leadership isn't behind all of this, but Dipoto got in front of the microphones and played the heavy, and that couldn't have gone over well with players who are sympathetic to Hamilton. The Angels management reacted to Hamilton's problems with outrage, as if a drug addict's relapse somehow defied the moral and physical laws of the universe.

The Angels already knew Hamilton would miss the start of the season with shoulder trouble, even before we all learned of his relapse. Yet, they did next to nothing – they signed Matt Joyce – to account for Hamilton's absence in left field and the middle of the batting order. The problem isn't that the Angels don't have Hamilton, who OPS-plussed 114 last season. They can replace that with someone about as good as Juan Rivera used to be. The problem is that they don't have anybody.

So, the Angels figured all along that they would be rid of Hamilton's contract with a relapse, they rooted openly for him to be suspended because of the relapse, when they didn't get their way they sent Hamilton back to the Rangers for almost nothing and, all this time, they didn't make a serious bid to replace him. And they have a big whole in their lineup now because of it.

One day a couple of weeks ago, the general manager entered the players quarters and told them he was going around the field manager to fix the club's mediocre performance. If you're a player on that team, maybe the general manager can go to hell. The Angels happen to have a player who can tell him that.

We're not saying Pujols told Dipoto where to go. All we know is that Dipoto went somewhere.

Dick Allen Award: Marlins making runs matter

With Giancarlo Stanton having his best year and Dee Gordon adding juice to the top of their lineup, the Miami Marlins are much improved offensively. They are defending their first Dick Allen Award in two years this weekend against the Cincinnati Reds.

Giancarlo Stanton has 10 homers in June, approaching his own Miami Marlins records for most home runs in a month (Arturo Pardavila III/Creative Commons Attribution Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Miami Marlins are defending the Dick Allen title for the first time in two years this weekend, which makes this a worthwhile time to look at two players on that club who really are ripping it up.

The Marlins took the Allen by winning three of four at home against the Colorado Rockies June 11-14 before going into four interleague games against the New York Yankees. The Marlins picked up their National League schedule this weekend in Cincinnati, where they were 35-55 all-time against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds won the opener Friday night, 5-0, marking the 11th straight time the Reds held Miami to four runs or fewer going back to May 14, 2013, about a month before the Marlins last won the Allen. The Marlins returned the favor Saturday with a 5-0 win against the Reds behind seven shutout innings by Justin Nicolino, who allowed only four hits in his Major League debut.

So, the Marlins and Reds will meet Sunday for the Dick Allen. The Reds are taking their third crack this year at the Allen, but they have yet to win it and they are 2-6 this season in Allen games.

After giving the impression of being a team on the rise last season, the Marlins are only 30-40 overall this season playing in the weak National League East. The problem is not their offense.

In 2013, the Marlins ranked last in the National League with only 39 games in which they scored five or more runs. Last year, they improved to 56 such games, raising their ranking to ninth in the NL. This year, they have reached five or more runs in 28 games, which ties them for fifth with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Their best hitter is Giancarlo Stanton, who is one of the best hitters anywhere. Stanton leads the Major Leagues with 25 homers, reaching that mark in only 67 games. Stanton became the fourth player in the last 10 years to reach 25 homers that fast, behind Albert Pujols (who did it in 49 games in 2006), Alex Rodriguez (63 in 2007) and Jose Abreu (67 in 2014).

Stanton has 10 home runs in June, approaching his own club record for most home runs in any month (12 in May 2012). The most home runs in a month by any player this year is 13 by Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals in May.

Then, there's Dee Gordon, who went to Miami from the Dodgers in a batch of trades that ended with the Dodgers getting Howie Kendrick from the Angels to play second base. A lot of people around the Dodgers like Kendrick at second base, but it's hard to say they're better off without Gordon.

Friday night, Gordon reached 100 hits this season in his 65th game, becoming only the sixth player in the National League since 1961 to get there that quickly. The fastest was another speed merchant, Ralph Garr, who reached 100 hits for the Atlanta Braves in his first 62 games of the 1974 season. Gordon entered this weekend's series on a pace to have 131 hits at the All-Star break, averaging 1.5 hits per game. He had one hit in each of the first two games of the Cincinnati series.

The Marlin last won the Allen June 20-23, 2013, on the road, taking three of four from the San Francisco Giants. The Marlins defended the prize twice before losing three straight on the road to the St. Louis Cardinals July 5-7 that year. Historically, the Marlins are 24-24 in games for the Allen, winning the prize three times and defending it in three of five attempts. This weekend's series is their 15th series for the prize all time.

Between their last successful title defense and this year's Allen victory against the Rockies, the Marlins were 4-12 in Allen games, failing four attempts to win it.

All-time in the Allen games, the Reds are 53-53. This weekend's series is their 36th for the Allen. They have won nine titles since the prize began during the 2011 season.

West League: Dodgers streak to seven straight

The Dodgers brought two northern opponents to Chavez Ravine last week and cruised to a 6-0 homestand, bringing their winning streak to seven. They have the early lead in the West League. But they travel this week to the haunts of the floundering San Francisco Giants.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is swinging as much bat as anyone in the game right now, leading his club to a streaking start in all competitions (TonyTheTiger/Creative Commons Share Alike-Attribution 4.0 International license).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

A look at the early West League standings reveals that the balance of power in the west is in the south, particularly Southern California.

The Dodgers (9-3) have won seven in a row after wolfing down two northern opponents, the Seattle Mariners and the Colorado Rockies, in a 6-0 home stand that ended Sunday. The only other club that's even two games above even in the West League, the San Diego Padres, recently enjoyed a good home stand against two northern division clubs, winning three of four against the San Francisco Giants and two of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Maybe some of this will shake back as the Dodgers and Padres hit the road. We could find out quickly.

The Dodgers are in San Francisco Tuesday through Thursday, and even though the Giants are a scuffling 4-10, well, you know the rest.

Right now, though, the Dodgers are riding high. No one in the game is on-basing (.527), slugging (.939), or, therefore, OPSing (1.467) better than Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and he has company in that lineup. Two other Dodgers are in the OPS Top 20 across the Major Leagues — second baseman Howie Kendrick (tenth, 1.105) and rookie center fielder Joc Pederson (20th, .990).

So, the Dodgers are doing fine offensively without Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon. They probably ought to be better defensively with those three replaced, respectively, by Pederson, Jimmy Rollins and Kendrick. Pederson has been terrific with the glove. Rollins, Kendrick and Gonzalez have been less so. But the Dodgers lead all of baseball with a team OPS of .885, which covers a lot of defensive problems.

Much was made during the winter about the Padres bring in a new outfield, and it's worked out well so far, with Kemp (162 OPS-plus), Wil Myers (114) and Justin Upton (191) all hitting. But they haven't outshined the Padres' new pitchers, which is why the Padres are fourth across baseball in staff ERA at 2.79. Give it to newcomers James Shields (2.84), Brandon Morrow (1.29) and Craig Kimbrel (1.42 with four saves).

Games of April 5

St. Louis 3, at Chicago (NL) 0.

Games of April 6

at Cincinnati 5, Pittsburgh 2.

at Detroit 4, Minnesota 0.

at Kansas City 10, Chicago (AL) 1.

Games of April 7

St. Louis at Chicago (NL), ppd.

Games of April 8

at Chicago (NL) 2, St. Louis 0.

at Detroit 11, Minnesota 0.

at Cincinnati 5, Pittsburgh 2 (11 innings).

at Kansas City 7, Chicago (AL) 5.

Games of April 9

at Cincinnati 3, Pittsburgh 2.

at Detroit 7, Minnesota 1.

at Kansas City 4, Chicago (AL) 1.

Games of April 10

Detroit 8, at Cleveland 4

Minnesota 6, at Chicago (AL) 0.

at Cincinnati 5, St. Louis 4.

Pittsburgh 6, at Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 11

St. Louis 4, at Cincinnati 1.

at Chicago (AL) 5, Minnesota 4.

Detroit 9, at Cleveland 6.

at Milwaukee 6, Pittsburgh 0.

Games of April 12

Detroit 8, at Cleveland 5.

St. Louis 7, at Cincinnati 5 (12 innings).

at Chicago (AL) 6, Minnesota 2.

Pittsburgh 10, at Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 13

at Chicago (NL) 7, Cincinnati 6.

at Pittsburgh 5, Detroit 4.

Milwaukee 5, at St. Louis 4.

Kansas City 12, at Minnesota 3.

Games of April 14

Detroit 2, at Pittsburgh 0.

Chicago (AL) 4, at Cleveland 1.

Cincinnati 3, at Chicago (NL) 2.

Games of April 15

at Cleveland 4, Chicago (AL) 2.

Detroit 1, at Pittsburgh 0.

at Chicago (NL) 5, Cincinnati 0.

at Minnesota 3, Kansas City 1.

at St. Louis 4, Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 16

at St. Louis 4, Milwaukee 0.

at Minnesota 8, Kansas City 5.

Games of April 17

at Detroit 2, Chicago (AL) 1.

at Pittsburgh 6, Milwaukee 3.

at Minnesota 3, Cleveland 2.

at St. Louis 6, Cincinnati 1.

Games of April 18

Chicago (AL) 12, at Detroit 3.

Cleveland 4, at Minnesota 2.

at St. Louis 5, Cincinnati 2.

at Pittsburgh 6, Milwaukee 2.

Games of April 19

at Detroit 9, Chicago (AL) 1.

at Pittsburgh 5, Milwaukee 2.

at Minnesota 7, Cleveland 2.

at St. Louis 2, Cincinnati 1.

Moreno: LA's unsung baseball hero in 2014

After taking the heat for over-reaching his baseball operation to saddle the Angels with a poor club in 2013, Angels owner Arte Moreno doesn't receive enough praise for reversing his own course and giving the baseball people room to operate in 2014. The Angels are back to being an elite club this season, and Moreno's new patience has a lot to do with it.

Angels owner Arte Moreno has left his baseball club to his baseball people in 2014, and the results are obvious (public domain image).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

They don't give an annual award for the most reviled person in baseball across Los Angeles. If they did, they'd have to retire it, anyway. Frank McCourt would win it every year. Still.

If, however, active participation were a requirement, then it's hard to imagine a more likely winner in 2013 than Angels owner Arte Moreno.

As of one year ago right now, no rhetorical task across the game would have been much tougher than defending Moreno's leadership of the Angels' baseball operation. In short, he was an ignoramus and a busy-body, the proverbial  – and all-too-real – rich guy with a baseball club for his plaything. These guys never understand the game because they think baseball is like other sports, replete with game faces and outcomes dictated by brute force.

Moreover, Moreno is a marketing guy who saw his club as a marketing project because, you know, when you're a hammer, everything is a nail. Thus, Moreno reached past his baseball people for two consecutive offseasons, signing the likes of Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson and Josh Hamilton to $500 million worth of free-agent contracts while the organization's player development operation languished as one of the least promising across professional baseball.

It wasn't really until last season that the entire mess came home to roost. Pujols produced his worst season ever before finally going on the disabled list with a plantar fasciitis in his left foot, the Angels made the characteristic error of thinking Hamilton could whisk into a new position (right field) just because he was on a deal worth an annual $25 million, the club decided to sign Joe Blanton  instead of giving those starts to Garrett Richards, and a disjointed club turned in a disjointed season.

The Angels finished 78-84, their worst season since 2001, when they finished 75-87 in Mike Scioscia's first year as the club's manager. The Angels that had been built by Bill Stoneman had run their course, and the new direction was not promising. Some fans believed Moreno should respond with something big, like firing Scioscia, or firing general manager Jerry Dipoto.

But Moreno did nothing of the sort. In his darkest moment as the Angels' owner, Moreno instead did something really big.

He pointed the finger at himself. In interview after interview across the national media (since he deals so seldom with the local media), Moreno made himself accountable, said he's the owner and it's on him. Moreno couldn't be led into selling out his high-priced players for under-producing. He refused to pin it on his manager, and he said outright that he wanted to give Dipoto's systems a chance.

So, when the 2013 season ended amid speculation that Moreno might actually eat the last five years of Scioscia's contract, there was, indeed, no news. And throughout the offseason, there was little news – just a couple of trades and a couple of changes on the coaching staff, the kind of events to characterize an ordinary offseason for any club. But there was no news, no headline news, no big initiative designed to scream across the media. 

It was, in fact, rather a dull offseason, an offseason of baseball people making baseball decisions. The owner kept his hands off.

Now, if we didn't want to give Moreno credit for seeing the light, that would be easy to do. Surely, it wasn't an attractive proposition for the Angels to go into the big free-agent market again, since the club opened the season with a $155 million payroll and has so much money committed to future seasons that another big contract would remove any remaining flexibility, particularly with the club angling for a long-term deal with Mike Trout. Additionally, anyone looking at the talent on this club had to know it really wasn't as bad as the 2013 season showed.

In fact, the Angels enter Wednesday's game against the Dodgers at Angel Stadium with a 67-45 record, the second best across Major League Baseball. And it has a lot to do with the fact that the owner didn't make a chaotic situation even more chaotic by going crazy on his top people. Instead of pressing the baseball operation with marketing initiatives, Moreno let the baseball operation operate a baseball club. 

Everyone around the Angels, it seemed, could take a deep breath, which is for the best because the Angels run like mad and they needed a breath. The Angels are back to playing baseball a lot like we remember from their best days under Scioscia. The focus is on players already with the club. The new guys giving new blood to the club are their own guys.

There's Richards, starting every fifth day instead of some mediocre free agent. There's Erick Aybar at his demonic best, and Howie Kendrick hitting at his best, and Trout having his best year ever, and Jered Weaver getting hitters out without his old stuff, and C.J. Cron up from the minor leagues to lend a bat, and so on.

The owner has left the club alone, and the club is responding with a fierce brand of baseball unlike any other club around the game today. No club in the major leagues is more aggressive on the bases or on the field or, for that matter, in the batter's box. 

Credit the players because they are playing, and credit the manager because he dictates how the game is going to be played, and credit the general manager because he assembles the playing roster.

But also credit the owner for allowing all of that to happen just by staying away. It's not an easy thing to do. If any of us owned the Angels, or any other club, we'd probably have our mitts all over it. Some of us might figure out when the bottom goes out that we don't know what we're doing, but you can look around sports and find plenty of owners who never get the picture. Moreno has.

A year ago, Moreno was the most reviled man in baseball across Los Angeles. This season, Moreno is the city's unsung baseball hero.

The Angels according to WAR

The statistical confection known as Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has become something of a new religion among a certain strain of baseball fans. As such, it requires a leap of faith, which some of us aren't quite willing to take. Here's what WAR says about the Angels in 2013.

According to WAR, Angels pitchers are considerably better than they were last season, and Scott Downs, in particular, is about five times as good (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Angels have become a dangerous team since this season's terrible start, which was even worse than last year's terrible start. It remains that, at 43-45, they are well behind the pace of last year's outfit, which finished 89-73. At the rate that the Angels have won through their first 88 games, they would finish 79-83.

Again, though, the Angels started this year 15-27. Since then, they are 28-18. If they can keep playing at that 28-18 pace (a .609 percentage), they would finish 88-74, which gets them very close to the present pace for the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 50-40 and positioned for the second wild card at 90-72.

The question before us is this: Considering that the Angels, taking the first 88 games in total, are paced to finish ten games worse than they finished last year, what is that difference? How, specifically, are the Angels ten games behind last year's rate of victory?

Like many other commentators, we're intrigued by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as a way to measure specific player contributions to winning games. Unlike many of those same commentators, who talk as though WAR should be the last word on important questions like a player's worthiness for the Hall of Fame or a Most Valuable Player award, we're not sold on WAR. We're still kicking the tires and checking under the hood.

A check under the hood involves a critique of the methodology, a critical look at the assumptions involved in working out the formula for determining WAR. Tire kicking involves putting certain questions to WAR and seeing how it answers. What follows is an exercise in tire kicking.

Baseball-reference.com (insert deep bow here) bases WAR on the assumption that a team composed entirely of "replacement" players, players of the "4A" type who are easily available to every team, would win 48 games in a 162-game major league season. Thus, a team that wins 90 games in a season would have 42 games of WAR value -- the 48 games that a team full of replacements would win, plus 42 "wins above replacement."

One legitimate criticism of WAR is that it misses by a little. One of WAR's virtues is that it doesn't miss by much. But it does miss by enough to be questionable. For example, as the Angels won 89 games last year, we would expect their WAR to total 41. Instead, by the Baseball-reference.com version of WAR, it totaled 46.3. If the Angels had won at the rate that WAR would predict, they would have finished with 94 wins, which would have put them into the playoffs. In the world according to WAR, the Oakland Athletics would have won 95 instead 94, the Texas Rangers would have won the same 93 and the Baltimore Orioles would have won 87 instead of 93. So, the Angels would have been in and the Orioles would have been out.

That's a pretty different world. So, WAR raises at least as many questions about itself as it answers about player value, and that should be kept in mind as we put it to work. It's a long way from being perfected.

It's also a lot of fun. So, back to the fun. Let's look at the Angels.

So far in 2013, Angels pitchers have produced 6.6 WAR, which works out to 12.2 WAR over 162 games. As it happens, Angels pitchers produced 4.8 WAR for all of last season. If WAR is to be believed, then Angels pitchers actually are better this year than last year, even though they rank 11th in American League ERA this year (4.23) and they ranked eighth last year (4.02).

At the end of last season, the Angels let go of Dan Haren (-0.4 WAR in 2012) and Ervin Santana (-1.3) and, essentially, replaced them with Jason Vargas and Joe Blanton. Vargas, with a 1.9 WAR so far this year, projects out to about 3.7 WAR over a full season, though we know we're not getting that because he'll miss about six weeks with a blood clot. Blanton has a -0.4 WAR, which works out to about -0.8 over the full season. Between Vargas and Blanton, the Angels would realize about 3.0 WAR over the full season, an improvement of 4.7 WAR over the combination of Haren and Santana in 2012.

C.J. Wilson finished with 0.7 WAR last year and now has 1.3 WAR in 2013, which would take him to about 2.5 over the full season. That's an upgrade of 1.8 WAR. Jered Weaver last year had 4.0 WAR and, so far this year, has 1.4 WAR, which would get him to about 2.8 over the full season. But Weaver is the reverse side of Vargas in that the former already has been injured and we might expect him to outpace the WAR he has established so far. The way Weaver is going lately, he might match last year's 4.0.

Last year, the Angels brought in Zach Greinke as a short timer and he gave them 1.4 WAR. He's pitching across town now and the Angels don't have an obvious replacement. However, Jerome Williams is good enough for WAR purposes. Last season, Williams totaled -0.2 WAR. This year, so far, he is 0.6, which rates out to about 1.2. That's an improvement of 1.4, which was precisely Greinke's contribution last season.

Ernesto Frieri last year totaled 1.4 WAR and he has 0.9 WAR so far this year, so he would come in around 1.8 for a small increase. But Scott Downs is showing a big increase, up from 0.4 WAR last year to 1.2 so far this season. He would pace out to about 2.4 WAR this year, a full two games better for a situational left-handed reliever. Even Garrett Richards works out better this season. Last year, he finished with -1.0 WAR and this year he projects to about -0.2 WAR.

Taking the next five Angels pitchers by appearances in 2013, we find Michael Kohn (0.7 so far), Kevin Jepsen (-0.0), Dane De La Rosa (0.5), Robert Coello (0.0) and Sean Burnett (0.6). They total 1.8, which would bring them in around 3.5. Compare them with the Angels next five pitchers from 2012 in appearances: Jason Isringhausen (0.1 in 2012), Jepsen (0.4), Jordan Walden (0.3), LaTroy Hawkins (0.0) and Hisanori Takahashi (-0.3). They total 0.5. So, the Angels, considering the solid back of their staff, are about 3.0 WAR better than last year.

Assuming that the discrepancies involving Weaver and Vargas will come out in the wash, the body of pitchers so far considered would come in right about 12 WAR better than last year. As to the remaining pitchers from each year, the guys who come and go, the Angels are about two WAR worse in 2013.

Position play, WAR tells us, is where the Angels really suffer this year in comparison with 2012. Defensively, in particular, WAR tells us exactly what the eye tells us. The Angels are ghastly this year. In 2012, they totaled 4.6 defensive WAR. In 2013, they are -4.7 WAR, which comes to about -9.0 over the full season. Perhaps WAR is telling us something about the relationship between pitching and defense, because the common measures tell us that the Angels pitching is worse this year, while WAR tells us that the pitching actually is better and it's the defense that's worse.

Offensively, WAR tells us that the Angels are a little worse than last year. Their offensive WAR last year was 36.7 and their offensive WAR so far this year is 17.1, which paces out to about 33. The less mysterious measurements tell us that that the Angels are more than a little worse offensively this year. The Angels are down from third in the league to seventh in runs, down from third to fifth in OPS and their OPS-plus is down from 116 to 111.

The big differences are found in individual position players, where we see enormous declines in WAR. That 12-game improvement in WAR among the pitchers is much more than offset by a projected decline of about 20 WAR among the position players.

Erick Aybar last year was 4.3 WAR and he's 0.2 WAR so far in 2013, so he paces out to a four-game WAR drop. Alberto Callaspo has dropped from 3.5 WAR to 0.0 WAR, so his decline is that large. By letting go of Torii Hunter, who had a 5.8 WAR last year, and replacing him with Josh Hamilton, who is 0.2 this year, the Angels figure to be another five WAR in the red. Albert Pujols did 5.0 WAR last year and he's 0.8 so far in 2013, a drop of about 3.5 over the full season. Mike Trout has followed last year's incredible 10.9 WAR with 3.9 so far this year. He paces out to about 7.7 WAR in 2013, another drop of three games. Were these players to maintain their WAR levels, they would end up being about 20 WAR worse in 2013 than 2012.

All of that is somewhat offset by improvements from other players. Howie Kendrick, who finished last year with 3.1 WAR, already has 2.8 in 2013 and would come in around 5.5, an increase of about 2.5 games. Chris Iannetta finished 1.4 in 2013 and already has 1.3 in 2013, so he figures to come in about 2.5, an increase of about one game. Peter Bourjos last year had 1.2 WAR and he has 1.3 already this year, so he would be about 1.2 better over this full season, except that he can't stay in the lineup. Mark Trumbo, 2.7 WAR last year, is 1.5 so far this year, so he would come out about the same. So, we see an improvement of about five WAR in 2013 among these players.

But when we go to the secondary position players, we see mostly decline. The next five Angels position players by appearance in 2012 were Kendrys Morales (2.2), Maicer Izturis (0.3), Vernon Wells (0.6), Bobby Wilson (0.9) and John Hester (-0.1). They total up to 3.9 WAR in 2012. The next five of those players for 2013 are J.B. Shuck (0.3), Brendan Harris (-0.6), Hank Conger (1.0), Luis Jimenez (-0.0) and Andrew Romine (-0.3). They add up to 0.4, which paces out to about 0.8, another drop of three games from the comparable players of 2012.

Putting it all together, WAR tells us that the Angels, over 162 games, would be going on four games worse offensively (down from 36.7 WAR in 2012 to about 33 this year), about seven or eight games better in their pitching (up from 4.8 to 12.2) and about 14 games worse defensively (down from 4.6 to about -9.0). That accounts, give or take, for the 10-game difference to the bad this year for the Angels.

Outside of WAR's suggestion here that pitching really isn't the Angels' problem, which is a little surprising, this quick and dirty study supports much of what we can plainly see by quantifing our qualitative intuitions. We could already tell that Hamilton instead of Hunter has turned out to be a bad exchange. WAR gives us an inkling of how bad. We could already see that Pujols, Callaspo and Aybar aren't as good as they were last year. WAR gives us some purchase on the extent of those declines.

In some respects, though, we're finding WAR quite hard to believe. WAR tells us that Trout is -1.3 defensively in 2013. Really? This season, the Angels are 10th in American League ERA by starters at 4.43, compared with fifth last year at 4.04. But WAR would have us believe that they get better starts this season. According to WAR, the Angels are a couple of wins better behind the plate this year. That isn't obvious.

WAR certainly is a salty concoction. It makes our discussions, like our food, tastier and more interesting, in the right amounts. In excess, it causes thirst, bloating, high blood pressure and weakening of the bones (osteoporosis), which might also characterize a good many baseball arguments that take WAR as gospel. Perhaps, WAR should be taken with a grain of salt. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t use it. But it’s not a good main course.

Angels have a good lineup ... out there ... somewhere

If we could tell you of a batting order that is proven to work for the Los Angeles Angels, that scores about a run more per game than their other lineups, would you like to see them try it? We have found such a lineup. Unfortnuately, you will never see the Angels use it when they're healthy. But they can get close enough.

With Peter Bourjos back in the lineup for the Los Angeles Angels, we might suggest a lineup that could work (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Not including the games played in National League parks, the Angels have used 40 different lineups in their first 72 games. Their most frequently used lineup has been their most successful lineup.

And, yet, it is a lineup we will never see again when the Angels are fully healthy.

The reason, of course, was that they missed center fielder Peter Bourjos for a full two months with a hamstring strain and played most of their games without him. When Bourjos returned to the lineup on June 10, Mike Trout moved back to left field and J.B. Shuck moved back to the bench.

That was just part of the impetus for going away from the successful lineup. There were others. But, first, here is the lineup that has worked best, just naming the players and their positions in batting order:

Erick Aybar (shortstop), Trout (center field), Albert Pujols (first base or designated hitter), Mark Trumbo (first base or designated hitter), Josh Hamilton (right field), Howie Kendrick (second base), Alberto Callaspo (third base), Chris Iannetta (catcher) and Shuck (left field).

The Angels are 10-5 using that lineup. Those games produced 74 runs, 4.93 runs per game, a bit up from the club's average of 4.47. In four other games, the Angels used an identical lineup, except with Hank Conger instead of Iannetta catching. In those games, the Angels are 2-2 with 24 runs, an average of six per game. Put the two together, and that basic lineup is 12-7 with 98 runs, an average of 5.15 runs per game.

In all other games, we all know, the Angels are 20-33. They’ve scored an average of 4.23 runs in those games, which is beneath the American League average. They’re a whole different club.

Why that particular lineup should work as well as it has is a bit of a mystery. Aybar has only a .269 on-base percentage in 136 plate appearances from the leadoff position. Shuck, hitting right before Aybar most of the time in that configuration, is a good hitter, but a light hitter. It's not like the lineup has the obvious elements of a winner.

But there it is, scoring 5.15 runs per game. It was, in fact, the basic configuration for the Angels during the last seven games of their eight-game winning streak from May 18-26. Further, the lineup three times scored five or more runs in losses, and two other times it scored four runs in losses. It has been a highly effective lineup. With any kind of pitching, the Angels could have won three-fourths of their games using this lineup.

Some in the statistical community say lineups don't really matter. We agree that lineups don't necessarily add up, and we have said it before. That’s not the best way to look at it. Lineups either work or they don't work, and the reasons why may be conjectured, but they may as well be left to the baseball gods. The important matter is to find a lineup that works, then keep riding it.

Angels manager Mike Scioscia is not doing that, and he has his reasons. We don't like to second guess managers. They have so much more information than we have that we don't even know what their decisions really are.

Scioscia has taken to moving Aybar down in the order, pushing Kendrick's hot bat up a notch and moving Hamilton into the two hole. By the way, watching Hamilton dog the back end of two double-play ground balls he hit in a 3-2 loss to the Seattle Mariners at the Big A Tuesday night makes one think he should come out of the lineup altogether until he decides to run those out. But that’s another issue. As it is, Scioscoa moved Hamilton down to the seventh spot for the Angels’ next game, a 1-0 win Wednesday against the Mariners.

No one here is suggesting that Shuck should play instead of Bourjos. But here is a suggestion. Go back to that successful basic lineup, but with Bourjos in the nine hole instead of Shuck. Oddly enough, though understandably, the Angels have not tried that configuration.

Bourjos is a much better hitter than Shuck (.824 vs. .672 in OPS), though Bourjos strikes out a lot more often and walks a lot less.  However, Bourjos has an advantage of .381 vs. .329 in on-base percentage, and his ability to reach base from the bottom of the order could give the Angels a nice dimension to compensate for Aybar's ineffectiveness as a leadoff hitter.

It would be fun to see how it works. The Angels might get a few more wins out of it.

Five pitchers throw four-hitter: Angels 7, Kansas City 0

In 2007, the Kansas City Royals traded Billy Buckner to Arizona for Alberto Callaspo. Both of those players now are with the Angels, and it's safe to say the Angels and Royals are going in two different directions. The Angels ran their winning streak to seven Saturday with their third straight win in Kansas City.

Hank Conger homered for the Angels in their 7-0 win Saturday in Kansas City (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The game: May 25, Angels at Kansas City. The Angels entered 21-27, third place AL West, 10 games behind Texas. Kansas City entered 21-24, fourth place AL Central, 5 1/2 games behind Detroit.

The pitchers: Angels, Billy Buckner, right hander (0-0, 0.00). Kansas City, Jeremy Guthrie, right hander (5-2, 3.49 ERA).

The result: Angels 7, Kansas City 0.

Summary: The Angels won their seventh straight and, for all their offense lately, they would have won this game without a hit. A week ago, the Angels didn't know who would start in this game, and they ended up with five pitchers combining for a four-hit shutout.

The pitching: Billy Buckner made his first start of the year for the Angels, becoming the tenth starting pitcher the club has used this year. Despite a fastball that never touched 90 MPH (according to MLB.com's GameDay feature), Buckner started with strike one on seven of the first ten hitters he faced. In the next two innings, Buckner started seven out of nine hitters with ball one. By the fourth, though, the Angels had a 1-0 lead that Mike Trout manufactured all by himself ...

There were two key at-bats for Buckner, and they both went his way. In the fourth, after Alcides Escobar led off with a single, Buckner immediately went 3-0 on Alex Gordon, Kansas City's best hitter (.337). Escobar had Buckner's attention and the pitcher's concentration was split between the pitcher and the hitter. Gordon swung at a pretty good candidate for ball four, a fastball down, and fouled it off. Then, Gordon fouled off a fastball right through the zone as Escobar ran. Next pitch, Escobar ran again and Gordon fouled off an offering a lot like the last one on 3-2. On the next pitch, a knee-high fastball over the plate, Gordon flied out to medium center field ... Turned out to be big. After Escobar stole on the first pitch to Billy Butler, Buckner pitched around Butler for a walk. Following that, Eric Hosmer hit a line drive right at second baseman Howie Kendrick, then Lorenzo Cain grounded into a force to end the inning.

The other big at bat was the last hitter Buckner faced, Kansas City second baseman Chris Getz with runners at first and third and one out after a double, a walk and a wild pitch in the fifth. Getz fouled off the first three pitches, then, on 1-2, fished at a changeup down and away and pulled it weakly on the ground to Kendrick, who started a double play. Getz argued the call with first base umpire Marty Foster, but he was out ...

Kansas City starter Jeremy Guthrie didn't allow a hit until Hank Conger, who led off the sixth right after the Getz double play, homered with the left field breeze at Kauffman Stadium. The Angels only scored three against Guthrie through seven innings, but they blew up for four runs in the eighth ...

The hitting: Hank Conger's homer in the sixth inning for the Angels came left-handed. All eight homers in the switch hitter's career have come left handed ... Josh Hamilton's batting average remains in the usual neighborhood, .222 now, but he homered in the seventh inning. It was Hamilton's 900th career hit ... Mike Trout set the tone on the bases again for the Angels. In the fourth inning, Trout walked, stole second and took third on a throwing error by Royals catcher George Kotteras, then came across on a ground ball by Albert Pujols, who never had an easier RBI ... Trout scored twice in the game, he now has scored at least twice in five straight games, the longest such streak for the Angels since Don Baylor scored at least twice in seven straight games during the 1979 season ... Trout now has scored 39 runs and is tied with Detroit's Miguel Cabrera for the American League lead ... Mark Trumbo was one-for-four, extending his hitting streak to 10 games ... The Angels were three-for-six batting with runners in scoring position. The Royals were zero-for-five ...

The fielding: Angels shortstop Erick Aybar is really making a lot of high throws, and he made another one in this game, enabling his Kansas City counterpart Alcides Escobar to lead off the fourth with a single ... Otherwise, the Angels were solid defensively ... Third baseman Albert Callaspo came in on a surprise bunt by Eric Hosmer, barehanded it and made the throw to first to beat Hosmer, who slid in head first ... Kansas City third baseman Mike Moustakas responded in the next half of the inning, taking extra bases on the line from Howie Kendrick and throwing him out to end the frame ...

The base running: Mike Trout seems to do this every day. He led off the second with a walk, stole second and took third on a throwing error by the catcher, then scored on a ground ball by Albert Pujols. The ball doesn't have to go very far from second base for Trout to take third without challenge ... In the fourth inning, Kansas City's Alcides Escobar stole third base with two outs against Angels catcher Hank Conger. But the next hitter, Lorenzo Cain, grounded out and the Royals didn't score. Conger later threw out Kansas City's Mike Moustakas trying to steal second base ...

Strategic moves: The Angels were crowing a bit to reporters Saturday about the pitching depth in their organization, and they have a right to it, considering, as manager Mike Scioscia pointed out, that four of the five pitchers in Saturday's shutout weren't on the opening day roster. Those four would be Billy Buckner, Dane De La Rosa, Robert Coello and Michael Kohn. The one pitcher who was around on opening day was Scott Downs ... The Angels starting rotation has an ERA of 1.76 in the last seven games ... The starters in that stretch have included Buckner , who made his first appearance for the Angels Saturday, and Jerome Williams, who didn't enter the rotation until May. That stretch also includes one poor start by Joe Blanton, and one good start by Joe Blanton ... With all that happening, help could be on the way. Jered Weaver is scheduled for a bullpen session Sunday and there have been reports that he might take his next start with the Angels. Also, the Angels are saying that pitchers Tommy Hanson and Kevin Jepsen could be activated this week ...

What now: The Angels now are 22-27, still third place in the AL West, and still 10 games behind Texas. But they have won seven games in a row.  Last year, right at about this time (May 22-29), the Angels won eight straight games, rallying from an 18-25 start to reach 26-25. The streak narrowed their deficit to Texas in the AL West from eight games to 5 1/2 games ... Which just shows how much more poorly the Angels started this year. The present streak began when they were 15-27, 12 games behind Texas ... Kansas City has lost seven straight home games and 15 of their last 19 games overall ... The present run of 19 games began with the Royals down only one-half game in the AL Central at 17-10 through May 5. Next day, the Royals ran into -- ready for this, Angels fans? -- Chicago White Sox left hander Chris Sale. The Royals scored a run in the first against Sale, then Kansas City starter James Shields shut down the White Sox, allowing two hits and striking out nine through eight innings. In the ninth, Kansas City manager Ned Yost, brought in closer Greg Holland to protect the 1-0 lead. Royals fans have since then blamed Yost for making the pitching change, but that's not what cost the Royals the game. They just didn't make a play with two out. Second baseman Chris Getz fielded a ground ball behind second base, but he couldn't feed the shortstop for a force play that would have ended the game as the White Sox scored the tying run. It's been downhill ever since then for the Royals ... Last time the Angels lost a game, Sale beat them, 3-0, in Anaheim on May 17. Five days before then, Sale almost rang them up for a perfect game on a Sunday night, but settled for a one-hitter in a 3-0 victory. The White Sox aren't anywhere this season, but Sale is in the nightmares of the Angels and the Royals ... The Angels will go for the sweep in Kansas City Sunday (11:10 a.m. PDT). The Angels will send right hander Jerome Williams (3-1, 2.53) against Kansas City right hander Wade Davis (3-3, 5.91) ... In addition to everything else going right for the Angels these days, they're about to finish a four-game series in Kansas City without ever seeing Shields (2-5, 2.47).

Vargas vexes Sox: Angels 6, Chicago 2

Are the Angels changing before our eyes? Or is the Chicago pitching that wild? The Angels walked six times, twice with the bases loaded, in their 6-2 win Sunday against the White Sox. After walking 16 times in the last two games, the Angels now have more walks than the American League average, which is highly unusual under the field management of Mike Scioscia.

Howie Kendrick had two hits Sunday, the most for the Angels on a day when they walked twice with the bases loaded (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Share Alike-Attribution Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The game: May 19, Chicago at Angels, American League. Chicago entered the game 19-22, tied for fourth (and last) place AL Central, five games behind Detroit and Cleveland. The Angels entered 16-27, fifth place AL West, 12 games behind Texas.

The pitchers: Chicago, Jake Peavy, right hander (5-1, 2.96). Angels, Jason Vargas, left hander (2-3, 4.03).

The result: Angels 6, Chicago 2 (Baseball-reference.com box score).

Summary: The Angels got a very well-pitched game and Chicago did not. On the second of those, much credit should go to the Angels, who ran very aggressively and walked twice with the bases loaded to set up their victory.

The pitching: If everything else is equal, one doesn't expect Angels starter Jason Vargas to outduel White Sox starter Jake Peavy. But everything else wasn't equal Sunday afternoon, because Peavy was facing the Angels and Vargas was facing the White Sox ... That, and Vargas pitched beautifully in his seven shutout innings. He threw 114 pitches, and he changed speeds off the previous pitch on 94 of them. When he threw the same speed, he changed location. Vargas also pitched outside of the strike zone to good effect ... The White Sox waited for his fastball all day, and that's mostly what he threw, but he kept them so off balance that they couldn't get good swings at him ... If this game seemed different for the performance from Vargas, it was. Angels starters were 9-20 with a 5.08 ERA entering the game ... Reliever Ernesto Frieri walked the bases loaded in the ninth and gave up one run on a sacrifice fly, but he entered with a 4-1 lead and a man on in the eighth, so he still picked up his ninth save ... Peavy was going for his fourth straight win, but he walked five hitters in six innings, three of them in the fourth inning, when the Angels scored two runs. Of the five batters Peavy walked, two of them scored, and there were two instances when he walked in runs with the bases loaded ...

The hitting: After scoring nine runs Saturday, the White Sox reverted to form and hardly touched Angels starter Jason Vargas, who limited them to four hits in seven shutout innings ... The White Sox were zero-for-seven batting with runners in scoring position ... The Angels drew six walks after walking 10 times Saturday ... Get this! With those 16 walks in their last two games, the Angels have 140 for the season, which is actually above the American League average of 137 walks. The Angels, who have finished in the bottom half of the American League in walks in every season under the field management of Mike Scioscia, except his first, now are tied with Minnesota for seventh in American League walks. Last year, when the AL had 14 teams instead of 15, the Angels ranked 12th with 449 walks ... Angels right fielder Josh Hamilton, who entered the game seven-for-15 with two homers lifetime against Chicago starter Jake Peavy, was one-for-three with a single against him Sunday ... The Angels won this game even though Mike Trout didn't score, which is rare. The Angels now are 4-18 when Trout doesn't score a run, and 13-9 when he does ...

The base running: The Angels had Chris Iannetta on third and J.B. Shuck on first with no outs in the third. Erick Aybar hit a ball into the right-field corner. After White Sox right fielder Alex Rios slid to keep the ball from the fence, he threw to second baseman Jeff Keppinger, who was lined up for a throw to third. Shuck ran off first so fast that he was around third and halfway home when Keppinger let Rios' throw through and it reached White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez. With the play happening behind him as he reached second base, Aybar risked making the first out of the inning at third as he bolted to the next corner. He lost. Aybar was about halfway between second and third when Ramirez got the ball to third baseman Conor Gillespie, and he was out in an easy rundown ...

The fielding: Angels shortstop Erick Aybar dropped a back-handed short hop against Chicago's Jeff Keppinger in the third, enabling the batter to reach with a single ... White Sox center fielder Alejandro De Aza mishandled J.B. Shuck's single in the third, enabling Angels catcher Chris Iannetta to move from first to third ... Shuck made a nice running and sliding attempt to rob Conor Gillespie in the seventh inning, but the ball dropped just past the top of Shuck's glove for a leadoff double. One out later, Angels center fielder Mike Trout made a beautiful diving catch to his left, taking extra bases and an RBI from Jeff Keppinger. It's a tribute to Trout's reputation as a fly catcher that Gillespie wasn't already almost at third base. Instead, Gillespie waited, tagged and took third while Trout got up and threw. The Angels got out of it when the next batter, Tyler Flowers, grounded out ...

Strategic moves: Playing in the American League means you never have to hit for your pitcher. Managing the Angels means you have only one relief pitcher who is truly reliable. Put them together, and it's easy to see Angels manager Mike Scioscia's general game strategy with regard to his pitchers -- stretch that starter out as far as possible, then get the ball to Ernesto Frieri as soon as feasible. Sunday, Scioscia brought Frieri in for his second four-out save in as many days. After Jason Vargas gave him seven shutout innings, Scioscia gave the ball to Dane De La Rosa  and Scott Downs for one out each before giving the ball to Frieri with two out and a man on second in the eighth inning of a game the Angels led, 4-1. Frieri didn't have his best day, walking three hitters and giving up a run in the ninth, but he picked up his ninth save.

What now: The Angels improved to 17-27, still fourth place in the AL West, still 12 games behind Texas. The White Sox fell to 19-23, remaining tied with Minnesota for fourth place in the AL Central, six games behind Cleveland. With Sunday's win, the Angels have brought themselves even with the White Sox all-time. The series, which reached its 52nd birthday on Saturday, is tied, 351-351 ... The Angels are taking Monday off before Seattle drops into Anaheim for a two-game series that starts Tuesday. The Angels will pitch right hander Jerome Williams (2-1, 3.05) for the 7:05 p.m. PDT start. The Mariners will counter with recent Dodgers right hander Aaron Harang (1-4, 7.30), who probably wouldn't be helping the Dodgers even if they'd kept him ... The White Sox begin a three-game series at home against Boston Monday night. Right hander Dylan Axelrod (1-3, 4.27) is pitching for the White Sox against Boston left hander Jon Lester (6-0, 2.72).