NL East: Two up, three down

The National League East almost certainly can't involve anyone other than the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals in 2013. Each has won it in the last two years, and no one else is even close to contending for even a wild card spot.

Cliff Lee, with a 7.3 WAR in 2013, was the most productive player in the National League East by that measure (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The National League East shapes up, by 2013 WAR, as a matter of two clubs, the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals. The Braves won it last year. This year, it figures to be the Nationals, especially after spring injuries to Atlanta pitchers Kris Medlen and Mike Minor.

By 2013 WAR, this is quite a close race, with Atlanta scoring 45.7 against 44.7 for the Nationals. The Braves actually beat the Nats by 10 games in 2013, but the gap has been closed somewhat with the Nats adding nearly 5.0 WAR to their pitching staff between the additions of Doug Fister and Jerry Blevins, while the Braves lost catcher Brian McCann.

The other three clubs look weak here, though the Miami Marlins have a chance to come up fastest after young pitching made a good showing in 2013.

Following is a list of each team in the division, giving each club's "top half" position players by 2013 WAR, its "second-level" position players, its top-level pitchers and second-level pitchers. For the top-half position players, we give the player's position and where he ranked at the position across big league baseball in 2013 WAR, then the actual WAR value for the player. For every other category, we give the player's overall 2013 WAR ranking, understanding that pitchers and position players are ranked separately.

More about all of this, including some important clarifications, can be found here. Bear in mind, though, that the 2013 WAR totals for each club only include these top players, and every club will have players with little, no or negative WAR value that actually would drag down its totals.

Atlanta Braves (45.7 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 1B: Freddie Freeman 5, 5.5; SS: Andrelton Simmons, 1, 6.7; RF; Jason Heyward, 9, 3.6; LF: Justin Upton, 11, 2.6. Totals: four players 18.4 WAR.

Second-level position players — Chris Johnson, 144, 2.0; Ramiro Pena, 208, 1.0. Jordan Schafer, 213, 0.9. Totals: three players, 3.9 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Craig Kimbrel, 37, 3.3; Kris Medlen, 39, 3.3; Julio Teheran, 41, 3.2; Mike Minor, 45, 3.1; Ervin Santana, 52, 2.9; Luis Avilan, 72, 2.4; David Carpenter, 90, 2.1. Totals: seven pitchers, 20.3 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Alex Wood, 177, 1.1; Anthony Varvaro, 202, 0.8; David Hale, 222, 0.7; Freddy Garcia, 234, 0.6. Totals: four pitchers, 3.2 WAR.

The most striking reading on the Braves is four starting pitchers in that 31-60 range by 2013 WAR -- Medlen, Teheran, Minor and Santana — meaning four No. 2 starters. Their fifth-best starter, Avilan, is a No. 3 by these criteria. Thus, the Braves figure to win the pitching match-up in most games they play, even though this group doesn't include a clear No. 1. And they'll finish games better than anyone else in the National League with Kimbrel.

The shortstop, Simmons, is the best across the game by 2013 WAR. Despite winning the NL batting title in 2013, Johnson finished 20th among big league third basemen by 2013 WAR, meaning the Braves still could use an upgrade. With McCann gone, the Braves still have a plus catcher in Pena.

Washington Nationals (44.7 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — SS: Ian Desmond, 6, 3.7; 3B: Ryan Zimmerman, 10, 3.8; RF; Jayson Werth, 5, 4.8; LF: Bryce Harper, 5, 3.8; C: Wilson Ramos, 11, 2.4. Totals: Five players, 18.5 WAR.

Second-level position players — Denard Span, 110, 2.4;  Nate McLouth, 161, 1.6; Adam LaRoche, 217, 0.9. Totals: three player. Totals: Three players, 4.9 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Doug Fister, 21, 4.1; Jordan Zimmerman, 28, 3.7; Stephen Strasburg, 45, 3.1; Gio Gonzalez, 49, 3.0; Tanner Roark, 91, 2.0; Tyler Clippard, 105, 1.8. Totals: Six pitchers, 17.7 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Craig Stammen, 183, 1.0; Ross Ohlendorf, 188, 0.9; Rafael Soriano, 195, 0.9; Jerry Blevins,  204, 0.8; (4, 3.6)

The only club around here (or anywhere) for starting pitchers that looks better than the Braves is Washington, with Fister and Zimmermann in the top 30, then Strasburg and Gonzalez in the next 30. That's to say the Nats have two No. 1s and two No. 2s. And Roark, the fifth best starter on this club, comes in as a No. 3 by 2013 WAR. Add to all that five relievers who hit the top 240, and this team figures to pitch.

The Nationals could have done with a little more star turning by Harper, Zimmerman and Werth. That, and the discovery of a second baseman, would give this club a complete lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies (29.6 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — RF: Marlon Byrd, 4, 5.0; LF: Domonic Brown, 12, 2.5; (2, 7.5)

Second-level position players — Carlos Ruiz, 155, 1.7; Ben Revere, 227, 0.8; (2, 2.5)

Top-level pitchers — Cliff Lee, 2, 7.3; Cole Hamels, 16, 4.6; A.J. Burnett, 111, 1.7; (3, 13.6)

Second-level pitchers — Jonathan Papelbon, 125, 1.5; Jonathan Pettibone, 126, 1.5; Chad Gaudin 149, 1.3; Kyle Kendrick, 182, 1.0; Jake Diekman, 222, 0.7; (5, 6.0)

Look how little offense we can find on a club that includes Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. None of these old horses even made these rankings at any level. The Phillies had to sign free-agent Marlon Byrd just to reach two players into the top half in their positions.

Some pretty good pitching here between Lee and Hamels. The Phils have famously had trouble getting leads up to Papelbon as the closer.

Miami Marlins (26.7 in 2013 WAR) 

Top-half position players — RF: Giancarlo Stanton, 14, 2.4; C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 10, 2.9. Totals: Two players, 5.3 WAR.

Second-level position players — Ed Lucas, 168, 1.5; Christian Yelich, 176, 1.4; Jeff Baker, 235, 0.7. Totals: Three players, 3.6 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Jose Fernandez, 6, 6.3; Nathan Eovaldi, 80, 2.2; Steve Cishek, 83, 2.1; Henderson Alvarez, 100, 1.9; Mike Dunn, 117, 1.6. Totals: Five pitchers, 14.1 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Jacob Turner, 134, 1.4; A.J. Ramos, 197, 0.9; Tom Koehler, 203, 0.8; Kevin Slowey, 234, 0.6. Totals: Four pitchers, 3.7 WAR.

The framework for this club is the young starting pitchers, particularly Fernandez, Eovaldi, Turner and Koehler. Lots to like. And though Stanton ranked only 14th among big league right fielders by 2013 WAR, everyone knows he's real.

This is a club that tore down last season and started all over. Indeed, the Marlins had to go beyond starting over. The club made a move in the right direction in 2012, moving to its rightful home in the Little Havana section of Miami and changing its official location to "Miami," before the manager, Ozzie Guillen, made his bone-headed declaration of love for Fidel Castro. Then, a cast of veteran players tanked. No slack here for Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria, but there's also no reason to spend a bundle and finish in last place. It's more fun watching a young club try to improve.

New York Mets (24.5 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 3B: David Wright, 5, 5.9; CF: Juan Lagares, 10, 3.7. Totals: Two players, 9.6 WAR.

Second-level position players — Daniel Murphy, 150, 1.8; Josh Satin, 194, 1.2; Curtis Granderson,195, 1.1. Totals: Three players, 4.1 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Bartolo Colon, 14, 5.1; Dillon Gee, 78, 2.2. Totals: Two pitchers, 7.3 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Zack Wheeler, 170, 1.2; Carlos Torres, 197, 0.9; Bobby Parnell, 211, 0.7; Jonathon Niese, 220, 0.7. Totals: Four pitchers, 3.5 WAR.

They say it's worse in New York to be irrelevant than the be terrible. The Mets are both. They made a little bit of an effort to improve with the free-agent additions of Colon and Granderson. But it won't be nearly enough.

We didn't include pitcher Matt Harvey here because he is out all season with injury, but he would have added 5.2 WAR to the pitching staff. He and Colon would have given the Mets a front two in the rotation to rival anyone outside the Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners. David Wright is a great player. Not much else to say here.

Tight matches on deck for NL playoffs

The divisional round of playoffs in the National League stands to be among the most even ever. One pits two easy division winners against each other, and the other will decide, once for all, which National League Central club can claim the best outcome.

Hanley Ramirez was the key hitter for the Dodgers during their surge to the National League West championship (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Generic 2.0 license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The divisional round of playoffs in the National League stands to be as even as any such round that we have seen since expanded playoffs began in 1995, and that is kind of a mouthful, considering that each divisional series in the NL went the maximum five games just last year.

The difference is that such parity was unexpected last year. For instance, form pegged the Washington Nationals, who finished 2012 with the league's best record, to bounce the St. Louis Cardinals, who entered as the second wildcard and finished the regular season ten games worse. It didn't work out that way. The Cardinals know how to win in October, and they took it in five.

This time, the Cardinals are the top entrant, and they get to face the wildcard survivor. Vis-à-vis the Cardinals, however, the wildcard Pittsburgh Pirates aren't merely survivors. They are living, formidable adversaries who went to the final week of the regular season challenging the Cardinals for the National League Central title. Now, they meet in an extension and dénouement of the best divisional race across Major League Baseball this season.

And that's not even the better divisional series. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers will meet in a clash of divisional champions who prevailed easily and have waited on this moment for nearly a month. While the Pirates and Cardinals have fired their guns for the last three weeks, the Braves and Dodgers have cleaned and polished theirs. The Braves and Dodgers are fortunate to face each other instead of opponents conditioned by tense playoff races.

The difference between the Braves and Dodgers right now is the sense in which we know each club. The Braves, we know rather well. The Dodgers, as always this season, are mysterious.

The Braves will pitch, they will hit home runs, they will walk and they will strike out. They led the National League this season in ERA (3.18) and home runs (181), tied for the NL lead in striking out (1,384, with the New York Mets) and finished second in walks (542, behind 585 by the Cincinnati Reds). They're the team Earl Weaver would have loved: pitching, defense and three-run homers.

Defense? By the numbers, the Braves were third in NL defensive efficiency (.700) and second in zone fielding runs above average (63). Shortstop Andrelton Simmons led the NL in defensive WAR at 5.4 (per baseball-reference.com), while outfielders Jason Heyward (1.4) and B.J. Upton (0.3), and catcher Brian McCann (0.3) also were plus players defensively, according to WAR.

With Upton batting so poorly this year (.557 OPS), Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez switched up the lineup, moving Justin Upton from left field to right, moving Heyward from right to center and putting Evan Gattis and his 21 homers in left. The Braves also are going without second baseman Dan Uggla, who struggled all year and is left off the postseason roster.

Third baseman Chris Johnson (.321) and first baseman Freddie Freeman (.319) finished second and third in NL batting average. Freeman is the big bopper in this lineup with 109 RBI and an .897 OPS.

The Braves went to this season with Tim Hudson as their ace, but he is injured now. Regardless, the Braves are strong at the top of their rotation and in the back of their bullpen. The top starting pitchers are Kris Medlen (15-12, 3.11 ERA), Mike Minor (13-9, 3.21) and Julio Teheran (14-8, 3.20). Closer Craig Kimbrel led the NL in saves for the third straight year, hitting a career high of 50 saves.

Gonzalez did a skillful job with the Braves, dealing with the tanking of Uggla and B.J. Upton, along with season-ending injuries to Hudson and relievers Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters. He made all the right moves with the lineup. Once he fills out the lineup card, he lets them play. Only three NL clubs tried fewer steals than the Braves at 95 (they made 64), and he bunts an average amount.

However, Gonzalez may be mistaken for leaving left-handed pitchers Paul Maholm and Scott Downs off the roster for this series. Even when the Dodgers were on their 42-8 run, a left-hander as good as Maholm or Downs could cut them down. Especially with Matt Kemp off their roster, the Dodgers are vulnerable to left-handers. Among the key Dodgers hitters, Carl Crawford (.210 against left-handers), A.J. Ellis (.193), Andre Ethier (.221), Juan Uribe (.237), Jerry Hairston (.179) and Michael Young (.257) all are 30 points or more worse against left-handed pitching, and only rookie Yasiel Puig, among the key batters, is significantly better against lefties.

The Dodgers were 30-42 through June 21, then they hit that 42-8 streak, then they were 20-20 the rest of the way. It is true that most winning teams have two or three good runs of six weeks that account for how many more they win than lose during the course of the season, but 42-8 is a freak occurrence. We haven't seen it in more than 70 years. So, it is hard to go into the playoffs thinking the Dodgers are that 42-8 team.

And it is especially hard considering that Puig, one of the key figures during 42-8, hasn't been such a phenomenon since then. During the Dodgers' 20-20 finish, Puig batted .235 (31 for 132). With Kemp out for the postseason and Ethier probably limited to a pinch-hitting role during this round of games, the Dodgers are a $220 million payroll that's putting Skip Schumaker in center field and a .235 hitter who might do something silly in right field.

Before, during and after 42-8, the engine of this Dodgers team was the front three in their starting rotation: Clayton Kershaw (16-9, 1.83), Zack Greinke (15-4, 2.63) and Hyun-jin Ryu (14-8, 3.00). If these fellows make their pitches, no one is beating them. They'll strike out a dozen hitters in every game and win the series easily. Dodgers pitchers were second in the NL in strikeouts (1,292), so they match up well against Braves batters who struck out as much as any in the league. But if Dodgers pitchers are just a little off, the Braves hitters will make them pay, and the Braves have enough pitching to make that stand up.

For all of their star power offensively, the Dodgers didn't add up to the sum of their parts. Among NL teams, they were third in batting average (.264), third in on-base percentage (.326) and fourth in OPS (.722), but only seventh in runs (649). Of all the offensive players the Dodgers picked up during their celebrated shopping spree last summer, the only real star right now is shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who is every bit the hitter he was when he was as an MVP candidate in 2009. Ramirez batted .345 this year with a 1.040 OPS, and he was just as good with pitches coming from either side.

But Ramirez is long from being a Gold Glover at short. In fact, the whole left side of the Dodgers defense has never been good this season, and it stands to be a serious problem in a postseason context. The Dodgers will not beat any good teams in any games that depend on them playing balls hit towards left field. Fortunately for the Dodgers, most of Atlanta's key hitters -- particularly McCann, Freeman and Heyward -- are left-handed bats not known for staying inside the ball and hitting the other way.

The Dodgers will go as far in this series as their starting pitchers take them. The Braves are the better pick here, because they are stronger all around. But if your pitching  is better, the rest doesn't matter, and the Dodgers have the better chance of having better pitching.

Over in the NL Central series, the Pirates are the sentimental favorite and the Cardinals are the team that has had it too good for too long, which makes the Cardinals rather a prohibitive favorite. The Cardinals have won five rounds of playoffs in the last two years. They know what they are doing here. They also won the struggle with the Pirates and Reds for the NL Central title this year.

Even with Allen Craig likely to miss the entire postseason with a foot injury, the Cardinals have the deepest batting order of all the teams remaining across the major leagues. Almost everyone on this team hits. Sadly, almost no one on this team catches the ball. Consider that catcher Yadier Molina (2.1 defensive WAR), shortstop Pete Kozma (1.3) and second baseman Matt Carpenter (0.3) all are plus performers on defense by that metric. Yet, the Cardinals added up to -5.3 defensive WAR.

If the Pirates can pitch and not hit the ball too much up the middle, they will have a puncher's chance. And they do have a certain magic. Many commentators at PNC Park for the Pirates' wildcard win against the Reds say the crowd had an unmistakable effect. A lot of juice runs through that club right now. The Pirates just finished their first winning season in 21 years and Pittsburgh's NFL team is in the tank, so the baseball club is taking on a lot of good will.

We also know that the Pirates can pitch, finishing third in the NL with a 3.27 staff ERA. And their center fielder, Andrew McCutchen, is the best player still standing across the major leagues with his 8.2 WAR in 2013. While we're looking for reasons to like the Pirates, consider that they're not really the same offensive team that finished eighth in NL OPS (.709) or ninth in runs (634) since they added Marlon Byrd in August.

At least they shouldn't be that same club. Here's what's funny about the addition of Byrd, who replaced a succession of weaker bats in right field. After the Pirates picked him up, he batted .318 and an .843 OPS in 30 games. And the Pirates still batted only .238 in September, and they had the same .709 OPS in September that they had for the whole season. So, where would the Pirates be without him? And is there a chance that additional games in the postseason will give the Pittsburgh offense time to register growth?

Against the Cardinals, maybe not. Turns out that two frequent right fielders for the Pirates pre-Byrd -- Garrett Jones and Jose Tabata -- hit pretty well this year against St. Louis. Tabata batted .378 (17 for 45) with a 1.005 OPS, while Jones batted .321 (17 for 53) with three homers and a .995 OPS. Against the Cardinals this year, Byrd batted .333 (11 for 33) with three homers and a 1.088 OPS. We shouldn't be too surprised if Jones often gets the nod over newly acquired Justin Morneau at first base in this series. Putting Tabata's bat into these lineups will be more difficult.

The Cardinals did not jack up Pittsburgh pitching this year, batting .248 with a .658 OPS and only five homers in 19 games. In fact, half of their batting order was pretty weak against the Pirates in 2013. David Freese batted .154 (eight for 52) with a .555 OPS, Yadier Molina batted .173 (nine for 52) with a .496 OPS, Matt Adams batted .133 (four for 33) with a .345 OPS and Kozma batted .175 (10 for 57) with a .482 OPS.

But the Pirates should beware of Jon Jay, who batted .400 (24 for 60) with a .964 OPS against them this season. Other Pirate killers in the St. Louis lineup this year were Carlos Beltran, who bashed them for .297 (19 for 64) with an .836 OPS, and Matt Holliday, who hit Pittsburgh for .342 (26 for 76) and an .813 OPS.

Individual St. Louis pitchers also were decidedly mixed in their results this year against the Pirates. Adam Wainwright made three starts and covered 21 innings with a 3.00 ERA. Joe Kelly pitched 21 1/3 innings with a 2.53 ERA against the Pirates. But Jake Westbrook, Shelby Miller and Lance Lynn all appeared in at least three games this year against Pittsburgh, and all of them resulted in ERA readings above 5.00.

The Cardinals led the NL in scoring (783 runs) despite eschewing two of the best known techniques for scoring -- the home run and the stolen base. Among NL clubs, the Cardinals were 13th in homers (125), and they stole the fewest bases (45) in the fewest stolen base attempts (67). The secret, of course, is that they keep the line moving. The Cardinals led the NL in on-base percentage (.342) and they had the second fewest strikeouts (14).

And there is this indisputable point that is somehow controversial: The Cardinals hit like no one else with runners in scoring position and two out (two-out RISP). The controversy, of course, bears on whether clutch hitting, like hitting homers or reaching base or stealing bases or not striking out, is a repeatable skill. Research suggests that it isn't.

And if it isn't, then it's fair to expect that the Cardinals won't keep doing it as they have all season, that their clutch hitting is fundamentally lucky and their luck could run out an any time. With a week left in the regular season, we wondered aloud if their luck were about to expire.

But it certainly didn't expire during that final week, when, with two-out RISP, the Cardinals raised their batting average .301 to .305, raised their OPS from .813 to .821 and scored 17 runs in six games.

It is the nature of the question, though, that it remains. And the answer stands to have much influence on who advances from their series with the Pirates.

Bullpen blows up again: Atlanta 5, Dodgers 2

We might say that no lead is safe for the Dodgers, the way their bullpen is going, except that the Dodgers don't score enough to build big leads. Instead, they blow small leads, as they did in Atlanta for the third straight day Sunday, a 5-2 loss.

Receiving another chance to close out a lead, if only by default, Brandon League couldn't get the Atlanta Braves to hit the ball on the ground Sunday (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Share Alike-Attribution Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The game: May 19, Dodgers at Atlanta, National League. The Dodgers entered 17-24, fifth place NL West, seven games behind Arizona. Atlanta entered 24-18, first place NL East, 1 1/2 games ahead of Washington.

The pitchers: Dodgers, Matt Magill, right hander (0-0, 6.92). Atlanta, Mike Minor, left hander (5-2, 2.75).

The result: Atlanta 5, Dodgers 2 (Baseball-reference.com box score).

Summary: The Braves swept out the Dodgers, who blew their third late-inning lead in as many games in Atlanta. But the last two, including Sunday's, were such small leads based on so few runs that it's not reasonable to blame them entirely on the bullpen.

The pitching: Dodgers starter Matt Magill came out getting swings and misses at his four-seam fastball, finishing three strikeouts in the first two innings that way and notching a fourth strikeout during that time frame with his slider. But Atlanta starter Mike Minor matched Magill strikeout for strikeout. Through five innings, both pitchers had eight strikeouts. The difference was that the Dodgers, particularly Carl Crawford, hit some balls hard against Minor, which resulted in their 2-1 lead through five ... The Dodgers bullpen stitched it together in the sixth and seventh innings. In the sixth, lefty J.P. Howell came in with a runner on first and no outs, waited through a rain delay and, right away, had to put up with another runner on base by an error to bring up two on and no outs. But Howell struck out Brian McCann, then got a fly out from Andrelton Simmons. With Saturday's killer, Evan Gattis, coming up as a pinch hitter, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly brought in Ronald Belisario, who threw all sinkers and sliders to force an inning-ending ground ball ... Belisario began the seventh by getting the first two men out, then walking Jordan Schafer. With Jason Heyward, a left-handed hitter, coming up, Mattingly called on lefty Paco Rodriguez, who ruined that strategy by hitting Heyward. So Mattingly called right away on Kenley Jansen, who whiffed Justin Upton by throwing all cutters to end the inning ...

But Jansen began the eighth by allowing a single to Freddie Freeman and a walk to McCann, and the disaster was begun with the Dodgers still up, 2-1 ... Enter Brandon League ... When third baseman Juan Uribe right away booted Simmons' sacrifice, meaning the Dodgers couldn't make an out even when the Braves gave them one, the bases were loaded. Freeman, not a fast runner, was now on third, so the Dodgers might have still choked the inning with a ground ball. In some past failures, League could at least make hitters put the ball on the ground. Not this time ... That was a 94-MPH sinker that pinch hitter Gerald Laird lined to right for a single on the first pitch to knock in the tying run ... That was an 85-MPH splitter that Ramiro Pena hit deep to right for a sacrifice fly to drive in the lead run ... That was an 85-MPH slider that Chris Johnson lined cleanly to left field for another single to knock in another run ... Finally, League got someone to hit the ball on the ground -- because Schafer bunted. That drove home another run, too ...

The hitting: The Dodgers put single runs together with the top of their order in the early innings ... In the first, Carl Crawford led off with a line-drive double to left and moved up on a ground ball to the right side by Mark Ellis, just back from the disabled list. Next, Minor buried a two-strike curve to Matt Kemp in the dirt. Kemp swung and missed for the strikeout, while Braves catcher Brian McCann blocked the pitch. But Adrian Gonzalez followed with a fly ball to center, which knocked in the first run ... In the third, Crawford led off with a walk, took third on Kemp's hard double to left and crossed on another sacrifice fly to left by Gonzalez ... But after the third inning, the Dodgers made 14 straight outs before Andre Ethier walked with two down in the ninth and the Dodgers trailing by then, 5-2.

The base running: The Braves made more outs on the bases than the Dodgers, getting caught stealing twice. Dee Gordon, who makes a big share of the Dodgers' base-running mistakes, began the game on the bench, but entered in a seventh-inning double switch.

The fielding: Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis is letting passed balls by him again -- four this year -- but teams run on him at their peril. In the first inning, Ellis threw out Jason Heyward while Justin Upton swung at strike three to complete an inning-ending double play. In the fourth, Atlanta catcher Brian McCann tried to run on Ellis with Andrelton Simmons batting and two out, but Ellis threw him out ... For the season, Ellis has thrown out 10 of 23 attempting base stealers, 43.5 percent. The league average is 28.6 percent ... Playing shortstop, Nick Punto short-armed his throw for an error in the fifth, allowing Simmons to reach base as the leadoff hitter. The error cost the Dodgers a run, as Atlanta later in the inning hit two two-out singles against Dodger starter Matt Magill to get the run home ... Rain delayed the game with a man on first and one out in the sixth, Dodgers leading, 2-1. After play resumed, the Dodgers were a different team. It began with the very first hitter, when second baseman Mark Ellis botched a grounder, enabling Freddie Freeman to reach and putting runners on first and second ... The killer error came in the bottom of the eighth, runners on first and second, no one out, Dodgers ahead, still 2-1, and Simmons batting. Anyone seeing that game knew Simmons was bunting. But third baseman Juan Uribe came up too fast on the bunt down the third base line and didn't even field it. The error loaded the bases. If Uribe makes the play, they get one out, then the Dodgers can intentionally walk the next batter and maybe get out of it with a double play, except that reliever Brandon League couldn't make anyone hit the ball on the ground. Following Uribe's error came a clean single, a deep sacrifice fly, a clean single and a sacrifice bunt, all of which drove in runs.

Strategic moves: After a loss like this, blaming the manager seems almost obligatory. Surely, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly can't hang it all on his bullpen. In that spirit, but not as a second guess so much as a thought for the future, we'll offer one idea. In the seventh, Dodgers leading, 2-1, Mattingly brought in reliever Kenley Jansen while double-switching with Dee Gordon entering as shortstop to replace Nick Punto. It seemed like an odd choice, considering the following: 1) Punto, we believe, is the team's best defensive third baseman; 2) third baseman Juan Uribe was batting seventh and Punto eighth (The ninth spot was due up for the Dodgers in the eighth. That's where Mattingly slotted Gordon); and 3) with a 2-1 lead, it makes sense to double switch for defense. Thus, it seemed more sensible to put Gordon at short, move Punto from short to third and remove Uribe from the game. As it turned out, Uribe made a crucial error in the eighth to open up a four-run inning by the Braves. The Dodgers only had two more innings to bat at that point, so batting the pitcher seventh instead of eighth would not have been a huge sacrifice. As it turned out, leaving Uribe in to play third base was a huge sacrifice. As it turned out, the seventh spot didn't even bat for the Dodgers in what remained of the game.

What now: The Dodgers fell to 17-25, still fifth in the NL West, seven games behind Arizona. If it's any consolation to the Dodgers, Arizona has the worst first-place record in baseball, 25-19 ... The Braves are 25-18, leading the NL East by 2 1/2 games over Washington ... The Dodgers have a chance to right themselves as they go to Milwaukee for three games. The Brewers are the last-place team in the NL Central at 17-25, same record as the Dodgers ... And the Dodgers will have their three best pitchers going -- Clayton Kershaw, Zack Grienke and Hyun-jin Ryu. We say that as if the Dodgers hadn't just wasted two good starts from Chris Capuano and Matt Magill ... The Milwaukee series starts Monday (5:10 p.m. PDT) with the lefty Kershaw (4-2, 1.40) going against Brewers right hander Yovani Gallardo (3-3, 4.50).

Crawford crashes in left: Atlanta 8, Dodgers 5

More than anything else, poor fielding cost the Dodgers in an 8-5 loss Friday night to open a three-game road series against the Atlanta Braves, who lead the National League East. Dodgers left fielder Carl Crawford made two deadly misplays that were mostly responsible for Atlanta scoring six runs, combined, in the sixth and seventh innings.

It was a bad night in with the glove for Dodgers left fielder Carl Crawford (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The game: May 17, Dodgers at Atlanta, National League. The Dodgers entered 17-22, fifth place NL West, six games behind San Francisco. Atlanta entered 22-18, first place NL East, one-half game ahead of Washington.

The pitchers: Dodgers, Hyun-jin Ryu, left hander (4-2, 3.40). Atlanta, Paul Maholm, left hander (4-4, 3.94).

The result: Atlanta 8, Dodgers 5 (Baseball-reference.com box score).

Summary: The Dodgers handed the Atlanta Braves two game-breaking opportunities through poor pitching and poor fielding. The Braves broke the game with them, scoring six times between the sixth and seventh innings, keyed by Justin Upton's sixth-inning grand slam that put them ahead for good.

The pitching: Dodgers starter Hyun-jin Ryu consistently missed with his first pitch fastball, going ball one on the first pitch with 11 hitters using that selection. All four times when Ryu started a hitter with the changeup, that one missed, too. So, Ryu constantly worked from behind, which is why he already had thrown 100 pitches (44 balls) through five innings. Yet, three of those innings were all but trouble free. Ryu walked five and gave up two runs in his five-inning start. It could have been a lot worse, but he left five runners on base, combined, in the first and third innings ... Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, who replaced Ryu in the sixth, was the best Dodgers pitcher of the night. He faced three hitters and they all should have made outs, but two of them didn't and they ended up scoring (see below, about fielding) ... Ronald Belisario came in for the seventh and gave up two runs, but, he, too, was let down by the Dodgers defense ...

Atlanta left hander Paul Maholm almost doesn't have enough stuff to hit, topping out in the 86-88 MPH range. But he has that in many flavors, and he mixed them together adroitly against a Dodger lineup that entered the game batting .303 against left handers. Maholm didn't exactly have the Dodgers eating out of his hand, but they had to scratch for most of their runs. They scored a run in the second when Dee Gordon beat out the back end of a double play, added two unearned runs courtesy of an error by Atlanta second baseman Dan Uggla in the fourth, then the Dodgers scored in the sixth and the eighth on solo homers by Scott Van Slyke. So, the Dodgers touched Maholm for eight hits and a walk in his six innings, but the Dodgers didn't explode offensively ... Braves closer Craig Kimbrel, a right hander, appeared for the first time since May 9 and struck out two in his ninth-inning stint, completely overmatching left-handed hitting Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier.

The hitting: The two solo home runs by Scott Van Slyke were the clear offensive highlights for the Dodgers ... Blue had hits up and down the lineup -- except from No. 3 hitter Matt Kemp and cleanup man Adrian Gonzalez, who combined to go zero-for-nine. All five Dodger runs came from the five through seven hitters -- A.J. Ellis, Scott Van Slyke and Luis Cruz. The Dodgers even got a couple hits from the nine hole, one from starting pitcher Hyun-jin Ryu and another from pinch hitter Tim Federowicz ... Kemp and Gonzalez didn't kill rallies, but they didn't get them started, either. In the first and third innings, they came up with a runner on first and one out, only to both make outs to end the innings ... The Dodgers entered the game batting .303 against left handers, despite their 6-7 record against left-handed starters. Friday, the Dodgers were nine-for-34 (.264) against lefties and they scored enough runs to win. But once again, against a lefty, they didn't ...

It's hard to give the Braves too much credit for their hitting. Of their nine hits, four might be called "unearned hits," which either came after two-out errors or resulted from poor defensive plays. But those unearned hits were big, accounting for six runs between them ... The Braves scored two runs on their own in the third inning, with their one through four hitters putting together a sequence ... The big news in the offseason was the Braves acquiring Justin Upton and B.J. Upton, the Upton brothers. But the brothers are very different people this season. Justin Upton is batting third in the lineup, .286 with 14 home runs to lead the National League. B.J. Upton is batting eighth and hitting only .141.

The base running: Nick Punto of the Dodgers had the only stolen base in this game. No one was caught stealing and there wasn't any other action on the bases that didn't result from fielders dropping balls.

The fielding: Until the sixth inning, the Dodgers played a decent defensive game. In the second inning, second baseman Nick Punto made a nice back-handed stop to retire Jason Heyward on a ground ball. Shortstop Dee Gordon was eaten up by Chris Johnson short hop in third for single, but it didn't contribute to any runs ... Dodgers outfielders made back-to-back catches to steal extra-base hits in the fifth. With a man on first and no one out, Scott Van Slyke made a sliding catch at the right field foul line to rob Chris Johnson. The next batter, Brian McCann, hit a smash to center field, but Matt Kemp made a nice, falling catch going to his right ... The Braves didn't score that inning, but they would have scored at least twice if the Dodger outfielders didn't make those plays ...

Then, Braves hitters began peppering the left side of the Dodgers defense, exposing that weakness. With one out in the bottom of the sixth, Braves trailing, 4-2, they sent up Jordan Schafer to hit for pitcher Paul Maholm. Schafer hit a popper to medium left field. The left fielder, center fielder and shortstop all converged. It was left fielder Carl Crawford's play all the way. In particular, there's no way he should defer to the shortstop going back that deep. But Crawford deferred and no one caught the ball. No error marked on the play, but the Dodgers might have made two misplays. The center fielder, Matt Kemp, should have called for Crawford to take it (he might have, but there's no word on if he did or didn't), and Crawford should have caught it ... The next batter, Andrelton Simmons, hit a smash at third baseman Luis Cruz, but Cruz didn't catch it. That was an error. Reliever Matt Guerrier should have been out of the inning, and he wasn't ... Those two errors helped set up a game-turning grand slam by Justin Upton ... In the seventh, with two out and Ramiro Pena on third with a triple, Crawford misplayed a fly ball by Simmons and it fell for a two-base error to score Pena. Simmons then scored on a single by Jason Heyward.

One of the problems with quantifying defense is this: While we can make make reasonable assumptions to reconstruct an inning and decide how much an error costs a team, there is no way to tell how many runs are prevented by a sparkling play. In the fourth, with a man on first, Van Slyke popped one up down the right field line. The first baseman, second baseman and right fielder all chased, and it was Heyward, the right fielder, who came in hard and caught the ball tumbling to the ground. The Dodgers ended up scoring twice in that inning, and it almost certainly would have been more without that catch ... The next batter, Cruz, hit a ground ball to inside of second base, leaving second baseman Dan Uggla to decide whether to make a play on the lead runner at second or the batter at first. But you do have to catch it first, and Uggla didn't field it cleanly. Error. The runners ended up scoring on back-to-back, two-out singles ... In the second inning, Uggla made a nice play in short center field to keep Cruz's clean single from going up the middle, temporarily keeping a run from scoring ... But Uggla did not handle a soft liner in the third inning by Nick Punto, resulting in a hit. Mixed night for him ... In the fifth, Braves shortstop Simmons came up to the infield grass to turn a soft grounder by Ellis into an out.

Strategic moves: One of the easiest second guesses against a manager is for pulling, or not pulling, his starting pitcher. Friday night, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly made the right call by pinch hitting for starter Hyun-jin Ryu in the sixth. Ryu already had thrown 100 pitches. If he were about 20 pitches lower at that point, he has to go up there with two out and no one on to stay eligible for the sixth inning. But his control problems cooked him by then ... Ryu's short stint and high pitch count meant Mattingly was in his pen in the sixth inning. Along with two Dodger errors, reliever Paco Rodriguez walked Heyward on a 3-2 pitch that wasn't even close, loading the bases. Mattingly allowed the lefty Rodriguez to pitch to right-handed Justin Upton, who hit a deep grand slam. Mattingly told reporters after the game that he didn't want to burn up all his relievers so early in the game. Rodriguez already was the second reliever of the inning, and he did finish out the inning before Ronald Belisario came in for the seventh.

What now: The Dodgers fell to 17-23, fifth place in the NL West, still six games behind San Francisco. The Braves are 23-17, still leading the NL East by a half-game over Washington. Saturday night in Atlanta (4:10 p.m. PST), the Dodgers are sending lefty Chris Capuano (1-2, 6.60) against Atlanta's Kris Medlen (1-5, 3.44). Capuano prevailed in something of a training wheels start last weekend against Miami, clearing 6 1/3 innings and allowing only one run by throwing almost nothing but a sinker and a changeup. The Atlanta lineup will be much more challenging. The Dodgers haven't seen much of Medlen lately. He last beat them in June 2010 and last year he faced them for only 2/3 of an inning.

Wild card playoffs awash in absurdity, tragedy

Baseball is a game of tragedy and absurdity. Friday's one-game wild card round of playoffs showed us both. Absurdly, the Atlanta Braves booted their way out of the postseason and later complained, with justification, that they were robbed. For tragedy, we give you Josh Hamilton and the Texas Rangers.

Josh Hamilton probably played his last game for the Texas Rangers in the American League wild card round (Keith Allison, http://www.flickr.com/photos/keithallison/2752004750. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Baseball is based in failure, which is why it never fails to arouse a sense of the tragic.

Our newest dramatic tragedy in the game is the Texas Rangers, a better than average team -- nay, the best in the American League! -- brought down by its flaws, none more compelling than center fielder Josh Hamilton, a tragedy unto himself.

Baseball also is a theater of the absurd, though a play written not by Beckett or Albee, but by the writers of the infield fly rule, who, in their defense, wished only to quell one of the game's intrinsic absurdities -- the base runner who is at once forced and not forced. 

Early logicians, working long before Alexander Cartwright, were certain that the same thing could not both be and not be. But Schrodinger's black cat curled itself around a fall Southern evening Friday and we witnessed, again, that even if the same thing could both be and not be, we can't act on that. We must pick one. And pick it in time. And hope we get it right.

Sometimes, we don't, and so absurdity piles upon absurdity, until the players who have earned nothing through their feeble antics are complaining, legitimately, that they wuz screwed.

But the ludicrous plays favorites, too, so as one side winces, the other smiles, working happily along the lines of absurdity, finessing them for victory. That happens to be the calling card of the St. Louis Cardinals, the last team in last year's playoffs before winning the World Series, and the last team in this year's playoffs before winning their twisted National League wild card game in Atlanta Friday night.

The baseball postseason has begun. The solid, hard-won realities of the long run no longer hold. Tragedy and absurdity live here, in the time line of the short series.

The Cardinals beat Atlanta, 6-3, not necessarily deserving it, but graciously accepting it. The Braves out-hit the Cardinals, 12-6. But the Braves also made three errors. A throwing error by Atlanta third baseman Chipper Jones, the likely Hall of Famer playing for the final time, opened up a three-run fourth for the Cardinals, giving them a 3-2 lead. A throwing error in the seventh by Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons led to a two-run inning, giving the Cardinals a 6-2 lead.

The Braves attempted a comeback in the eighth. With one out and runners at first and second, Simmons hit a drifting pop up into short left field. The Cardinals shortstop, Pete Kozma, followed the ball going back, while left fielder Matt Holliday approached the ball coming in. The ball stayed in the air for a long time. The runners were frozen.

Finally, just as the ball was coming down, left field line umpire Tim Holbrook called the infield fly rule. At that moment, it appeared, Kozma and Holliday both gave up on the ball and it fell between them. The runners both advanced. However, had Holbrook not called for the infield fly rule, Simmons would have been safe at first, assuming the Cardinals fielders wouldn't have played the ball differently. With the call, though, Simmons was automatically out.

Atlanta manager Fredi Gonzalez came out to argue. Outraged fans pelted the field with garbage. The game was delayed for a little more than 20 minutes. The Braves wound up protesting the game.

But the commissioner's office denied the protest. So, the Braves may protest injustice, but their complaints ring hollow because of their own incompetence. The Cardinals advance to play against NL top seed Washington, not necessarily deserving to win. However, the Braves deserved to lose and the Cardinals took advantage, which is good enough to win.

Friday's American League wild card winner, the Baltimore Orioles, really were onlookers with the rest of us as a fine Texas Rangers operation that just never got it done completed its autumn unraveling.

The Rangers won AL pennants in 2010 and 2011 without winning the World Series. They had it won in Game 6 last year, but right fielder Nelson Cruz couldn't make the championship catch on a two-out fly ball in the ninth by the Cardinals' David Freese, who cleared the bases with a triple to tie the game and keep the Cardinals alive.

Being that close and missing, the Rangers came to this season hungry and held first place in the AL West for 178 days. They held a five game lead on the Oakland Athletics with nine games left. But the Rangers lost seven of those games.

On the last day of the season, with the Rangers and Athletics tied for first place and playing each other in Oakland, the Rangers took a 5-1 lead in the third inning. Playing an Oakland club with nothing to lose, the Rangers celebrated in their dugout. It would be the last happy moment, capping three years of happy moments, for the club that couldn’t ever get it all the way done.

In the fourth, the A's tied it, 5-5. Later in the inning, Hamilton blew a fly ball in center field, allowing in two more runs. The A's were on their way to a 12-5 win and the division title. Suddenly, the Rangers were relegated to wild card status facing a one-and-done mandate, predicting an ill future for a club playing badly. The Rangers would take it up in their own park against this year’s four-leaf clover of a baseball team, the Orioles, the break-even club that broke through by winning 29 of 38 one-run games.

There, it all came back to that beautiful, haunted athlete.

The Tampa Bay Rays (the Devil Rays, then) certainly understood the talent when they took 18-year-old Josh Hamilton from Raleigh, NC, with the first overall pick in 1999. But serious drug problems ruined his early twenties. At 22, he was out of the game.

Just for kicks, apparently, the Chicago Cubs took Hamilton from Tampa Bay in the 2006 Rule 5 Draft. That day, the Cincinnati Reds purchased Hamilton from the Cubs. The Reds paired Hamilton with a sobriety coach, the brother of manager Jerry Narron, and the world discovered that year the talent that had been forgotten.

And when the Reds moved Hamilton to Texas in a trade for right hander Edinson Volquez a year later, a superstar was born, and a two-time pennant winner in Texas came with him. In 2008, Hamilton mesmerized baseball fans with 28 bombs in the first round of the home run derby at Yankee Stadium. In 2010, Hamilton batted .359 and won the AL MVP.  Even this year, he struck his career high with 43 homers. He even stayed off the disabled list for the first time since 2008.

But Hamilton relapsed last winter, and the clock thus began on his time with the Rangers, with whom his contract was to expire after this season. Hamilton is said to be disturbed by an incident earlier this year, when he tossed a ball up to the stands and a fan plunged to his death trying to catch it. Anyone would be disturbed.

This is a fellow with a substance abuse problem who now had blood on his hands, albeit unintentionally.

Since July 7, the day the man died, Hamilton is a .254 hitter.

With his relapse, Hamilton already was on a short leash. By the All-Star break, he wasn't producing as we have seen, though he was named to the AL All-Star team. At the start of August, the Rangers and Hamilton suspended contract negotiations. Hamilton reportedly began having vision and sinus problems. And the Rangers faltered. From Sept. 1, they were 15-16 until the end of the season. 

Then came the debacle in Oakland, followed by a testy exchange in the dugout between Hamilton and Rangers manager Ron Washington. Sometime around then, a Rangers official told Fort Worth Star-Telegram columnist Randy Galloway that Hamilton isn't coming back to the Rangers even if he plays for free.

So, Hamilton went to the wild card game against Baltimore with a lot on the line. He lost all of it.

Batting in the first, Rangers down, 1-0, runners on first and third with no outs, Hamilton hit into a double play on the first pitch. A run scored to tie the game, but the big inning was dead. Hamilton batted again in the third with a runner on first and two out, game still tied. He struck out, looking at the third pitch. Hamilton led off the sixth with a first-pitch ground out to the pitcher.

Hamilton had one more chance, coming up in the eighth with two out, the Rangers down, 3-1, and Ian Kinsler at second base. The Orioles brought in lefty Brian Matusz. And Hamilton whiffed on three pitches, going for the tying run and neglecting to cut down his swing with two strikes.

Now, and awfully suddenly, Hamilton is a pariah where he once was a hero. He doesn't have a major league contract. He will be 32 next year. He'll sign somewhere, but not for anything near what his talent dictates. He has a substance abuse problem. And he has a man's death on his head.

Tragic. Wonder what he's doing now.

NL All-Star team ... uh, can we try this again?

The National League All-Star team playing Tuesday night in Kansas City is, at least measured by WAR, not very good. In fact, if we were to pick a team of NL WAR Stars and compare it with the real team of NL All-Stars, we would end up with only ten players in common.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Our task here is to produce a National League 25-man All-Star team based on WAR (wins above a replacement-level player) as calculated by baseball-reference.com.

We'll jump right into it. For a rationale about why this might be worth doing, as well as the American League version of our WAR All-Star teams, check here.

To begin, we will make up a 25-man National League All-Star team based mainly on WAR, deviating only to fill every starting position and make sure each team is represented by at least one player. After that, we will add five players (three position players and two pitchers) for a 30-man roster, then four more players for a 34-man roster, which brings us up to the roster length that will be in action Tuesday night in Kansas City.

Here is the 10-man pitching staff for the 25-man NL WAR team. The pitcher's WAR so far in 2012 follows his name:

Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati (3.6), R.A. Dickey, New York (3.6), Jordan Zimmerman, Washington (3.1), Mark Buehrle, Miami (2.9), James McDonald, Pittsburgh (2.8), Gio Gonzalez, Washington (2.7), Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco (2.7), Matt Belisle, Colorado (2.6), Ryan Dempster (2.6), and Kyle Lohse, St. Louis (2.6).

Unlike the American League, for which the starting pitchers on the real All-Star team lock step with WAR all the way through, the NL pitching staff diverges widely from a staff that would be picked by WAR.

The most glaring example is Cueto, tied with Dickey as the NL's best pitcher this year by WAR. Retired St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa, managing the NL All-Stars, left Cueto completely off the All-Star team, which can only be described as a farcical, petty omission. It goes back to the rivalry between the Cardinals and the Reds, which has gotten nasty through the years. This move by LaRussa, snubbing a foe like this after retirement, shows just how nasty that rivalry turned.

But maybe we're too harsh here, because Cueto isn't the only WAR warrior left off the team in Kansas City. Indeed, it you believe and support WAR (what a terrible acronym), then you are fuming about this NL All-Star pitching staff going to Kansas City, because it is terrible. The NL has included only one of its top 10 pitchers by WAR, which would be Dickey. Further down the list, we find only six of the top 20. So, we have a very low performing All-Star pitching staff relative to the right now.

Now watch them throw a combined no-hitter against the American League in Kansas City.

Here, now, is the starting lineup, and the batting order, for the NL WAR Stars:

Leading off is our right fielder, Atlanta outfielder Michael Bourn (3.9), fifth in NL WAR among position players. Following Bourn is Pittsburgh center fielder Andrew McCutchen, third in the league with his 4.4 WAR. Batting third is the great Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto, second in the league at 4.5. Cleaning up for the NL is New York third baseman David Wright, who leads the NL at 4.7 WAR.

Whew. And this lineup doesn't quit. Batting fifth is the reigning NL MVP and the most booed player in the game right now, Milwaukee left fielder Ryan Braun, eighth in the NL at 3.6. The No. 6 batter is the designated hitter, St. Louis left fielder Matt Holliday, sixth in the NL at 3.7. Batting seventh is Philadelphia catcher Carlos Ruiz, fourth in the NL at 4.0. The No. 8 hitter is Chicago shortstop Starlin Castro, 11th in the NL at 3.0. And the No. 9 hitter, Chicago second baseman Darwin Barney, seventh in the league at 3.6.

Surprising, eh? Who would have thought that the last-place Chicago Cubs could put three players just on the WAR pitching staff and starting lineup? That's an awful lot of talent for such a terrible team. It tells us that Cubs general manager Theo Epstein has a nice building block in his double-play combination, and that he has an awful lot more work to do.

And what a great batting order. Sadly, that is not the batting order, or even the lineup, that will appear for the NL in Kansas City. Among the players in our lineup, the fans selected only Votto. Then, the NL decision makers initially left Bourn, Holliday and Barney off the real NL All-Star team completely. Bourn and Holliday have since been added as replacement players, but Barney has not.

As we fill out the 25-man NL team with reserves, we will pass over some better players by WAR because we need to represent every club. The list here includes are San Francisco outfielder Melky Cabrera (ninth among NL hitters at 3.4), St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina (2.9, 13th), Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis (2.4, 17th), San Diego third baseman Chase Headley (2.3, tied for 18th), Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (2.2, tied for 20th) and Houston shortstop Jed Lowrie (2.1, tied for 25th).

There, we have it, our best 25-man NL team by WAR, complete with three catchers and at least one player from every team. None of our WAR reserves was named to the real NL All-Star team. Thus, out of 25 players on the NL WAR stars, only eight are on the real NL 34-man All-Star team.

Adding five more players for a 30-man roster, we start with two outfielders, Atlanta's Martin Prado (3.2) and Miami's Giancarlo Stanton (3.0). We should add an infielder to this mix, and now comes a hard case. Atlanta rookie shortstop Andrelton Simmons has played in only 33 games, and we should rightly argue that 33 games isn't enough to make an All-Star team. But his production is off the charts. Much as we ooh and ahh about the Angels' Mike Trout and his 4.6 WAR in 64 games, Simmons is sitting on 2.5 WAR in 33 games. Going by WAR, we have to include Simmons. The two additional pitchers are Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and Matt Cain of the Giants, who are tied for 11th among NL pitchers at 2.4 WAR.

Kershaw, Cain and Stanton all were named to the real NL All-Star team, but Simmons and Prado were not. Stanton has since been scratched due to injury.

Four more players get us to 34. Going down the list, we pick Carlos Beltran of St. Louis and Jason Heyward of Atlanta, both tied for 14th in the NL with Simmons at 2.5. The additional pitchers are Washington's Stephen Strasburg and Milwaukee’s Zack Greinke at 2.4 WAR, tied with Cain and Kershaw. Beltran is in the real NL starting lineup, Strasburg is on the real NL staff, and Heyward isn't on the real team at all.

The real originally named NL All-Star team and the 34-man NL WAR team have only 10 players in common -- Votto, Beltran, Cain, Dickey, Kershaw, Strasburg, Bourn, Braun, Castro and Cabrara. Add in Holliday, a replacement, and it gets up to 11.

Rather amazing how much disparity we have, even as the new metrics have crept into the front offices, between what the real NL roster says and what WAR says. 

The real NL roster includes four relief pitchers -- Cincinnati's Aroldis Chapman, Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel, Colorado's Houston Street and Pittsburgh's Joel Hanrahan -- with a combined WAR of 4.9. Again, managers love relief specialists, and WAR does not.

The rest of the real NL team, according to WAR, includes such howlers as Chicago's Bryan LaHair and San Francisco's Pablo Sandoval, both wandering around at 0.9 WAR. Other real NL All-Stars include such weak WARriors as Rafael Furcal of the Cardinals (1.1) and Cincinnati's Jay Bruce (1.3).

The combined WAR for the NL WAR Stars is 103.3. The combined WAR for the real NL All-Star team is 70.2. Naturally, we should expect a team selected on the basis of WAR to have a higher WAR than a team that isn't. But the difference here is hard to swallow. We're looking at a difference of 30 games in a period of a half season.

Somebody didn't pick the right team here. If WAR didn't pick the right team, it means WAR is deeply flawed. If the fans and LaRussa didn't pick the right team, then they are, at least in this respect.

Our hunch is that the NL team playing in Kansas City Tuesday night  isn't nearly as good as it could be. Then again, neither is the AL team.