A Dodgers-Giants division race? About time!

It's been 10 years since the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants duked it out in the National League West. Now, at long last, blaring out of the All-Star break, here it comes.

We thought a National League West race between the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants might materialize in 2012, but it didn't. This season, it has (public domain image).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

We're just about to that point at which every club across Major League Baseball has played 100 games, and the last month of Dodgers games will never be confused with 42-8.

But it's certainly good enough for now. And only for now.

For now, the Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants are right with each other on top of the National League West, trading the lead back and forth. The true reason is another June swoon by the Giants after they had won two thirds of their games. At the All-Star break, the Dodgers led the West by one game 54-43. A week following the All-Star game, the Giants hold the one-game lead at 56-44.

We're looking now at an enticing possibility, something we haven't seen in 10 years – a race for the NL West between the Dodgers and the Giants, who last really went toe-to-toe in 2004, when the Dodgers prevailed by two games over the Giants.

The Dodgers teased us a little in 2012, when they started so well, then the new ownership came in and splurged on players mid-season. But a true divisional race never materialized because that Dodgers club never synced together. The Giants won the division by eight games and played a solid postseason to win the World Series for the second time in three years while the Dodgers still hadn't won it since 1988.

Finally, last June, the Dodgers began to gel, hitting that 42-8 stride for the division championship while the Giants suffered the downturn of many defending World Champions. The Dodgers couldn't finish the job in the postseason, losing a six-game National League Championship Series to the St. Louis Cardinals, who then fell to the Boston Red Sox in the World Series.

Now, though, here at mid-season 2014, we've got that race that was happening on two coasts more than 3,000 miles apart for a pretty solid 65 years. The Dodgers and Giants have taken their turns this year, just as we might expect. Through June 8, the Giants were 42-21, 9 1/2 games ahead of the second-place Dodgers, stumbling along at a mere 33-31.

Then, all that Giants hitting went away. From June 8 until the All-Star game, the Giants were 10-22, batting only .234 with a team OPS of .630. The Giants, at their best, aren't a great offensive club, and they were well beyond their powers with a .717 club OPS through June 8. At the break, they were .688 (against a league average of .697). They really lost the home run stroke. Through June 8, they had hit 69 homers in 62 games, and they hit 17 homers in 32 games leading to the break.

The Dodgers were 21-12 from June 8 until the break, but they didn't become that by increasing their offensive potency. Through June 8, they slashed .253/.323/.407/.731. From June 8 until the break, they slashed .267/.339/.380/.718. Those slugging percentages tell us the Dodgers actually hit with less power, and they scored substantially less – 4.3 runs per game through June 8 and 3.9 from June 8 until the break.

But we've seen some pitching lately, have we not? On May 20, the Dodgers' team ERA peaked at 3.69. From then until the break, the staff tossed up a 2.92, bringing the season number down to 3.29. The Dodgers struggled early with their bullpen, which choked up about a dozen games in the first six weeks. Through May 20, Dodgers relievers notched 13 saves, five blown saves, three wins and nine losses. From then until the break, it was 17 saves, two blows, a win and a loss. That bullpen, which was supposed to be a huge strength, really is one now. Kenley Jansen is 29-for-32 in saves (90 percent) and the team is 82 percent against a league average of 68 percent.

The recovery of the Dodgers' bullpen is Reason No. 1 for the club's rise in the standings. And the bullpen isn't even where the Dodgers pitching staff is at its best. Day after day, their starting pitcher is simply better than the other guy. With Josh Beckett throwing the way he was throwing before going on the disabled list, their No. 4 is better than half of the other clubs have at No. 1. The Dodgers should out-pitch the other club every day, and that has been happening.

We could say the Dodgers will go as far as their pitching can take them, which is pretty far, but we don't have to. Imagine what this club can do when it starts hitting.

By many measurements, the Dodgers are an elite offensive club within the NL this year, and they're not nearly as productive as they could be. With only 78 homers in their 102 games, they would have to hit one per game the rest of the year to match last year's total of 138 homers. If those homers come, the Dodgers will light it up.

The Dodgers have a few left-handed hitters who might pick it up a little. Last season, Adrian Gonzalez ran a 124 OPS-plus and now he's carding a 114, while Andre Ethier is down from 120 to 94 and Carl Crawford is down from 107 to 94.

Oddly enough for a club whose best hitters are right-handed, the Dodgers continue as one of the league's worst hitting clubs against left-handed pitchers. Against lefties, the Dodgers split .231/.315/.360/.675 with a relative OPS-plus of 90 compared with the league, which splits .252/.317/.391/.708 against left-handers. Right-handed batters Matt Kemp and Juan Uribe OPS .613 and .606 against lefties.

Yet, the Dodgers are, by the measurements, better offensively than they were last season. In 2013, the Dodgers slashed .264/.326/.396/.722, ranking third, third, sixth and fourth in the NL. But they ranked only seventh in runs with 649. This year, they are slashing .258/.329/.397/.726, ranking second, third, third and third. And they're also third in runs with 424.

The difference in terms of their offensive efficiency, just to pick one, is Dee Gordon, a forgotten man, who, out of nowhere, became a second baseman – and an All-Star second baseman, at that. Gordon has added a running dimension that this club sorely needed. The Dodgers already have stolen 91 bases (and been caught 35 times), with Gordon already swiping 45 bases in 55 attempts. Last year, the Dodgers swiped only 78 bases all year (and were caught 28 times). Their stolen base leader, Carl Crawford, was 15-for-19.

So, the Dodgers approach their last 60 games as a strong contender with a lot of room to grow. It bodes well for the remainder of this season. But there is one thing standing in their way. The Giants.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from or are extrapolated from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Red Sox build champion by inches, not miles

Almost no one believed the Boston Red Sox were about to win the World Series when the 2013 baseball season began. Everyone else in the American League East appeared to be better. Just shows, once more, how easily we can be tricked by names and fame.

Who even noticed that John Farrell managed the Boston Red Sox to the 2013 World Championship (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license)?

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The winter is here, so it's time to scour the list of free agent players to determine the best new fits for one's team, and to investigate the trade market for deals.

Most of all, in some quarters, it's time to make a splash, to make headlines, to energize the fans and create a buzz for 2014.

However, as the Boston Red Sox showed us in 2013, building a champion isn't the same thing as lighting up the news ether. Come to think of it, the Los Angeles Angels of the last two years have made the same point.

When it's about building a champion, tiny, incremental approaches work just as well loading up star power, if not better. Improving your club by inches instead of miles works. Addition by subtraction works. Building for depth, rather than star power, works.

It also helps to have key players bounce back from injuries and poor seasons. It helps to install a field manager who might not be a big star or a big personality, but who understands that the players are the team.

It also helps to have players rising to the moment. And one of the greatest postseason hitters in the game's history.

On Aug. 25, 2012, the Red Sox made a blockbuster deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, clearing away about $275 in outstanding salaries and receiving almost nothing in return. On their way to a last-place finish, the Red Sox dealt away real big league talent like Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, who were good players for the Dodgers in 2013, and a solid bench player in Nick Punto. They dealt away pitcher Josh Beckett, who has seen some high points in his big league career.

In return, the Red Sox received a swag bag containing James Loney, Ivan De Jesus, Jerry Sands, Allen Webster and Rubby De Le Rosa. Before the 2013 season began, all the Red Sox retained from that group was Webster and De La Rosa.

As we baseball initiates digested the trade, all we could think was that the Dodgers, under their new ownership, were boldly building a pennant winner, while the Red Sox consigned themselves to a long haul of building themselves from the very bottom of the tough American League East to the top.

So, we had that wrong.

The Dodgers did, in fact, markedly improve their team. It didn't show up in the balance of the 2012 season, nor did it appear for the majority of 2013. However, the Dodgers put together that incredible 42-8 run, the best extended period for any team in more than 70 years, and won the National League West easily. Then, they won a round of playoffs against the Atlanta Braves before falling to the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series.

But the Red Sox ruled baseball in 2013.

Their new manager, John Farrell, is quite a bit less bombastic than his predecessor, Bobby Valentine, which had to even out the moods in that clubhouse. A pitcher, John Lackey, who had been counted by Red Sox fans among their most disappointing acquisitions, produced a nice year and helped solidify the starting rotation.

They improved their team by inches, rather than miles, bringing in players like David Ross, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara, Stephen Drew and Mike Carp. The total combined payroll cost for all of those players in 2013 came to about $30 million.

The Red Sox began 2012 with a payroll of $173 million, with hundreds of millions more in guaranteed future salaries. The reduced their payroll to $150 million in 2013, while dramatically reducing their future salary exposure. They improved by 28 wins, from 69 in 2012 to 97 in 2013. Addition by subtraction.

The signing of Uehara proved to be especially helpful. The Red Sox had hoped Joel Hanrahan, acquired by trade from the Pittsburgh Pirates, would be their closer. That failing, perhaps Andrew Bailey, acquired a year earlier from the Oakland Athletics, would be that man. But both were hurt and neither could close. It fell to Uehara, who was nearly unhittable (33 hits in 74 1/3 innings, 0.565 WHIP). They built for depth.

Mostly, though, it was about David Ortiz, who lasted only 90 games in 2012 due to an injury to his right Achilles tendon. Ortiz was all the way back in 2013, and the lineup the Red Sox built around him was relentless. And that's largely due to the full return of leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury, who missed two months of the 2012 season with a shoulder injury.

Based on our appreciation of on-base percentage and slugging percentage, the Red Sox lineup in 2013 was a blueprint for scoring. Their most frequent one through three hitters, Ellsbury, Victorino and Dustin Pedroia, produced solid on-base percentages, respectively, of .355, .351 and .372. None of that is league-leading production, but they're all tough outs and they all provided a bit of pop with slugging percentages ranging from .415 to .451.

Their most frequent five through seven hitters -- Napoli, Daniel Nava and Jarrod Saltalamacchia -- produced slugging percentages ranging from .445 to .482, none of which is top ten material, but they're all good, and they're real good in combination for those spots in the order. And they were tough outs, with on-base percentages ranging from .338 to .385.

In the middle of all that was the clean-up hitter, that powerhouse, Ortiz, who produced a .395 on-base percentage, a .564 slugging percentage and an OPS-plus of 160, fourth in the American League.

During the postseason, Ortiz produced not just big numbers, but key hits at critical junctures. Best of all was the grand slam in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series, tying that game in the eighth inning after the Detroit Tigers had taken a 5-1 lead and threatened to go up in games, 2-0, at Fenway Park.

After beating the Tampa Bay Rays in a four-game American League Divisional Series, the Red Sox beat the Tigers in a six-game ALCS, then defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in a six-game World Series.

In 14 games of postseason play, Ortiz reached base 34 times, batting .352 (18 for 51) with 16 walks (only seven strikeouts), five homers and 13 RBI.

Sometimes, the best addition is a player you had all along. That, too, is worth remembering as we crank up the hot stove for another winter.

Braves will lose for lopping off lefty Maholm

The Atlanta Braves probably lost their National League Division Series with the Dodgers before it started. Quality left-handed pitching is the one proven way to slow down the Dodgers when they are at their best, and the Braves decided to short themselves of left-handed starters.

Lefty Mike Minor did the Dodgers in Friday afternoon. For whatever reason, the Atlanta Braves elected to not have any other left-handed starting pitchers (Public domain image).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

After the Atlanta Braves evened up their National League Division Series with the Dodgers on the strength of six strong innings from left-hander Mike Minor Friday, it's more evident than ever that the Braves gave the series away when they set their pitching staff.

By leaving left-handed starter Paul Maholm off their roster for this series, the Braves undercut their ability to exploit the one discernible flaw on the Dodgers. Long ago, we mentioned here that the Dodgers were susceptible to good left-handed pitching. Even when the Dodgers were in the midst of 42-8, when they were winning every kind of game imaginable -- when they scored fewer than three runs and won, when they allowed more than four runs and won, when they were out-hit and won, when the other team scored first and the Dodgers still won -- the one way to slow them down was to throw at least a decent left-handed starter.

Maholm qualifies. He finished the season with a 4.41 ERA to go with his 10-11 record, but he is a veteran with some guile, and he was effective against the Dodgers – two starts, 13 1/3 innings, 12 hits and three earned runs (2.03 ERA) with three walks and six strikeouts.

The one hope for the Dodgers, we supposed, would be the return to form of Matt Kemp, who hits left-handers better than anyone. That possibility crumbled, though, when the Dodgers disabled Kemp at the end of the season.

Then, the Braves gave the Dodgers a gift, putting only one left-hander in their rotation for this series. With all the information and intelligence that goes into running baseball teams nowadays, it's remarkable that the Braves could just miss that.

We don't really know who made that call. Somehow, though, general manager Frank Wren and manager Fredi Gonzalez decided to take on the Dodgers with only one left-handed starter.

A recent Sports Illustrated piece points out that when we only consider players on the Dodgers' roster for this series, they are .282/.345/.424 against right-handers and .260/.324/.406 against lefties. That's a difference of 39 points in OPS, from .769 to .730.

On July 29, when we first touched on this, the Dodgers' .261 batting average against lefties led the league, their .321 on-base percentage ranked third, their .401 slugging average ranked third and their .721 OPS ranked second. When the season ended, the Dodgers were batting .253 against lefties (seventh), with a .315 on-base percentage (eighth), a.391 slugging average (seventh) and a .706 OPS (sixth). So, it's not merely that the Dodgers finished where they finished, but how they finished, which had to be at even lower rates during the last two months to bring down those averages.

Minor gave up a run in the first on a Hanley Ramirez double Friday, then the Dodgers didn't advance anyone else to second base through the fifth inning. The Braves won, 4-3, bringing the best-of-five series to a 1-1 tie.

It defies explanation, perhaps, but the Dodgers have a lot of right-handed batters who hit better against right-handed pitchers. And they have no left-hander hitters who hit better against left-handed pitchers. Left-handers especially neutralize Carl Crawford at the top of the Dodgers order, and, unless Nick Punto is playing, the bottom of their order is useless against lefties.

It would seem that the smart play for the Braves would have been to start Minor in Games 1 and 5, and Maholm in Game 2 or 3. That way, they get the majority of starts by left-handers. The Braves still could audible to rookie lefty Alex Wood for a start, but that’s not in the plans and he already has been used once in relief.

So, the Dodgers don't have to face another left-handed starter for the remainder of the series, which picks up with Game 3 at Dodger Stadium Sunday afternoon. That’s enough to make the Dodgers a rather comfortable favorite to win the series, perhaps as soon as Monday.

Redbirds rake Cap: St. Louis 7, Dodgers 0

St. Louis right hander Lance Lynn threw almost nothing but four-seam fastballs at the Dodgers Friday night, and struck out Dodger hitters like they didn't know it was coming. With nine strikeouts in six innings, Lynn notched an easy 7-0 win.

St. Louis right hander Lance Lynn improved to 7-1 with a 2.95 ERA after his 7-0 win against the Dodgers Friday night (djprybyl/Creative Commons Attribution Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles


The game: May 24, St. Louis at Dodgers, National League. St. Louis entered the game 30-16, first place NL Central, 1 1/2 game ahead of Cincinnati. The Dodgers entered 19-26, fifth place NL West, six games behind Arizona.

The pitchers: St. Louis, Lance Lynn, right hander (6-1, 3.27). Dodgers, Chris Capuano, left hander (1-2, 4.84).

The result: St. Louis 7, Dodgers 0 (Baseball-reference box score).

Summary: Nothing fancy about this Dodgers loss. St. Louis starting pitcher Lance Lynn just showed them the fastball, and they just couldn't hit it.

The pitching: In his last two starts, Dodgers left hander Chris Capuano had Tim Federowicz behind the plate and stymied Miami and Atlanta by mixing together sinkers and changeups. Friday, with Federowicz sent down, the Capuano worked with the Dodgers' regular catcher, A.J. Ellis, and the magic wasn't there. The pitching plan changed. In most at-bats with more than one or two pitches, Ellis called for at least one four-seam fastball, and Ellis also was more likely than Federowicz had been to call for a curve (all this, from the date on MLB.com's GameDay feature). Anyway, ‘twas a highly ineffective night for Capuano, who gave up six runs (five earned) in five innings ... The first three big blows for the Cardinals -- David Freese's RBI double in the second, Allen Craig's hard two-run double in the third and Craig's solo home run in the fifth -- all came off Capuano changeups ... The last of those gave the Cardinals a 4-0 lead ...

You almost couldn't have a simpler pitching plan than the game Cardinals starter Lance Lynn threw at the Dodgers. Just throw the fastball. In his six innings of work, Lynn threw 77 pitches -- 67 four-seam fastballs, seven curves and three sliders. In his first three innings, Lynn threw 40 pitches, all four-seam fastballs. In the fourth, Lynn came out with six straight curves, and got two hitters out that way, then went right back to the fastball. He struck out nine in six innings that way, allowing only two hits ...

The hitting: For the Dodgers, not much. Just three hits all night. The Dodgers were no match for Lance Lynn's ubiquitous four-seam fastball, which ranged between 92-95 MPH ... The Cardinals only totaled six hits, but four of them went for extra bases ... David Freese sat out all three games the Cardinals played at San Diego during the midweek after lacerating his right thumb making a tag on Sunday. Back in the lineup Friday, Freese responded with a double, a homer and three RBI in three at-bats ... The Cardinals were one-for-seven batting with runners in scoring position, and the Dodgers were zero-for-two ... We probably shouldn't be too surprised that the Cardinals lit up Dodgers starter Chris Capuano as they did. Here are some career numbers for Cardinal hitters against Capuano through Friday's game: Matt Carpenter, four-for-eight with a homer; Craig, seven-for-11 with two homers; and Freese, six-for-10 with a homer ...

The fielding: Carl Crawford sometimes looks like he just loses track of the ball in left field for the Dodgers. Friday night, in the first inning, he appeared to give up too quickly on a fly ball by David Freese that went off the fence for a double. With two out and a runner on first, Crawford gained nothing by playing it off the wall ... But Crawford didn't make, by any means, the only Dodgers defensive violation of the inning. The runner who was on first, John Jay, reached because Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez threw behind pitcher Chris Capuano covering the bag on a grounder to the right side. That should have been the third out of the inning ... On Freese's double that was under-played by Crawford, the left fielder threw to shortstop Nick Punto, who relayed to A.J. Ellis covering home against the on-coming Jay. Punto's throw was right there and Ellis was right there blocking the plate. However, as the ball skipped up toward Ellis, it his Jay's foot, and the runner was safe. The official scorer marked it as an error against Punto. Tough call … In the third inning, Crawford dropped Allen Craig’s double trying to pick it up off the warning track, and Carlos Beltran scored all the way from first base …

The base running: John Jay collided with Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis at home plate on a double by David Freese in the second inning to score the first Cardinals run. Ellis was knocked out for a little while, but it was a clean play by Jay, who slid in straight ... After Carl Crawford singled to lead off the game for the Dodgers, he was out by just a little less than a mile trying to steal second. The throw by Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina was right there. Molina is one of the best, throwing out 44 percent (225-for-507) attempting base stealers in his career, during which the National League average is 28 percent. This year, Molina is nine-for-23 (39 percent) ...

Strategic moves: Wondering if maybe the Dodgers shouldn't go back to the sinker-changeup program when Chris Capuano is pitching. Remembering the rationale provided by Capuano before his start against Miami a couple weeks ago, he said he looked that day to just execute his pitches and not worry too much about the hitters' weaknesses. Friday night, the Dodgers got back to being tricky with Capuano. But the sinker-changeup plan also worked against Atlanta, which has a tough lineup, so it worked better than the more complex formula Capuano threw at the Cardinals. Does mixing in four-seam fastballs and curves take some of the burrowing action off his sinker or some of the drop from his changeup? Don't know ...

What now: The Dodgers are 19-27, still fifth place in the NL West, seven games behind Arizona. St. Louis is 31-16, still leading the NL Central from 1 1/2 games ahead of Cincinnati in the highest quality division chase across the game, so far. Two left handers are taking the ball at Dodger Stadium as the series resumes at Dodger Stadium (4:15 p.m. PDT). It's Ted Lilly (0-1, 5.63) for the Dodgers against John Gast (2-0, 4.76).

Ryu rolls: Dodgers 9, Milwaukee 2

The Dodgers picked up the rubber game of their three-game series in Milwaukee, 9-2, Wednesday, largely because the Brewers couldn't pick up ground balls. The Dodgers actually did pick up ground balls and starting pitcher Hyun-jin Ryu picked up half of the outs he induced on balls that hit the ground.

Dodgers right hander Hyun-jin Ryu improved to 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA Wednesday as the Dodgers won, 9-2, in Milwaukee (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Generic 2.0 license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The game: May 22, Dodgers at Milwaukee, National League. The Dodgers entered the game 18-26, fifth place NL West, seven games behind Arizona. Milwaukee entered the game 18-26, fifth place NL Central, 10 1/2 games behind St. Louis.

The pitchers: Dodgers, Hyun-jin Ryu, left hander (4-2, 3.42). Milwaukee, Wily Peralta, right hander (3-4, 5.94).

The result: Dodgers 9, Milwaukee 2.

Summary: If it's any consolation to the Dodgers, they're not the worst last-place team in this league. Their victory gave them two out of three in Milwaukee, which isn't the worst last-place team in this league, either. Fortunately for the Dodgers and Milwaukee, there's still Miami.

The pitching: Dodgers starter Hyun-jin Ryu struggled with his control and velocity in the first two innings, during which he usually fell behind hitters, regardless of what he threw, and allowed three singles to go along with a walk. But he dialed up opportune ground balls, such as an inning-ending double play from Jonathan Lucroy with runners on first and second in the first inning, then an inning-ending grounder from Jeff Bianchi with a runner on third in the second inning. It had to help Ryu that his own hitters came through for him in the early innings, especially with a five-run second inning that gave him a 6-0 lead. A night earlier, we saw Dodgers consistently fail to hit with runners in scoring position through the early innings, and this was little help to Zack Greinke, who pitched under stress all night from his hitters failing and couldn't make it through the fifth inning. Ground balls produced 11 of the 22 outs that Ryu pitched ... Brandon League actually pitched the ninth without anyone scoring, but he came in with a 9-2 lead, so, uh, good for him ... He did get the Brewers to hit three ground balls, though ...

The Brewers had little hope with Wily Peralta, although the right hander was consistently 95-96 MPH with his fastballs. In the second inning, after Carl Crawford and Mark Ellis bashed first-pitch singles and Adrian Gonzalez reached on a fielding error, Peralta declined to test the strike zone and issued back-to-back, bases-loaded walks to Scott Van Slyke and Nick Punto, capping a five-run inning. Peralta allowed seven runs before he could get six outs. It figured that even the Dodgers could hold that lead ... The Brewers are on the bottom of the National League with a 4.53 staff ERA ....

The hitting: The Dodgers finished the day with 12 hits -- 10 of them were singles. They bunched five of them together with two walks and an error to score five runs in the second inning. They actually hit a bit with runners in scoring position (six-for-15) this time, but it was hardly a landmark performance against the National League's worst pitching staff ... Matt Kemp singled with a runner on third in the first inning Wednesday, going one-for-two with RISP for the game. This season, he now is .177 (eight for 45) with RISP. Eight singles ... Andre Ethier, who sat Wednesday, is eight-for-41 (.195) and a homer with RISP ... Ethier's replacement Wednesday, Scott Van Slyke, was two-for-four with a double and two RBI ... Dodgers pitcher Hyun-jin Ryu wore a zero for four collar Wednesday, dampening what has been a pretty good season at the plate between himself, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke as starting pitchers batting ninth. Between them, the three now are .245 (13-for-53) with a homer and five RBI ... As the day began, the three were a combined .253. Six American League teams were getting lower batting averages from their designated hitters -- Cleveland (.247), Oakland (.246), Detroit (.237), Chicago (.226), Houston (.207), Tampa Bay (.187) and Baltimore (.160) ... In fact, the AL average across the league for designated hitters was only .251 ... Even crazier, the NL was getting a .284 average from its designated hitters in inter-league games ...

The base running: One of the upsides to playing against the Brewers is that you get to run against their catcher, Jonathan Lucroy. Wednesday, the Dodgers were two-for-two stealing against Lucroy, and the Dodgers didn't even play Dee Gordon in this one. Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp swiped those bases. For the season now, Lucroy is only two-for-20 throwing out base stealers, 10 percent. The league average is 30 percent ... By contrast, Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis, who sat Wednesday, has been the NL's best at killing base thieves, 11-for-24 (45.8 percent). His replacement Wednesday, Ramon Hernandez, failed against the only Brewer who tried stealing against him. It was no one other than Lucroy. But Hernandez still is two-for-four this season ... We all know, of course, that the pitchers are vital as to whether their teams do or don't control the opposition's running game ...

The fielding: Nick Punto made an error for the Dodgers at shortstop Wednesday, and there's no apologizing for that, but he's one guy on this team about whom there is no question about his effort and alertness, so ... Remembering Tuesday, Punto couldn't handle hard short hop from Jeff Bianchi and everyone was safe, including Milwaukee's Carlos Gomez at third. Right away, though, Punto blocked a wandering Gomez off third base, took a pickoff throw from Matt Guerrier and made the tag for the out ... Good baseball play. The man redeems himself ... However, Brewers infielders Rickie Weeks and Jean Segura were beyond redemption Wednesday. Between them, their fielding misplays in the second inning cost the Brewers four runs and took them out of the game. With the bases loaded and one out, Dodgers leading only 1-0, Carl Crawford hit a routine ground ball to the left of Weeks, playing second base. It appeared that Weeks had a double play on his mind, but he didn't pick it up first. Instead, the ball bounced right past him, allowing two runs to score. The official scorer in Milwaukee, a soft touch, ruled it a base hit. The next hitter, Mark Ellis, singled, loading the bases. Then, Adrian Gonzalez hit a ball slightly to shortstop Segura's right. Segura, too, had a double play cooking, but he booted it, allowing another runner to score and keeping the bases loaded. Brewers pitcher Wily Peralta, apparently succumbing to the uselessness of getting ground balls, walked two more hitters to force home two more runs, capping a five-run inning .. In the sixth, Segura and Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez let a simple popup fall between them ...

Strategic moves: We all want Dee Gordon to succeed, because his speed is a nice dimension for the Dodgers' offense. Sadly, his mental errors are destructive. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly sat Gordon Wednesday after the shortstop made the worst squeeze bunt imaginable on Tuesday. Gordon bunted the ball right back to the pitcher, who had an easy play at the plate on Andre Ethier coming in from third ... There's talking among the Dodgers brass about bringing up outfield prospects Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig from Class AA Chattanooga. Probably not a good idea. They can't develop without playing, and it's not obvious where they would play for the Dodgers. The Dodgers certainly aren't going to sit Carl Crawford, the best of their outfielders right now, and that leaves only Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to be seated. Implausible ...

What now: The Dodgers improved to 19-26, still fifth in the NL West, but they gained a game on first-place Arizona, which lost to Colorado, so they are six games down. Milwaukee is 18-27, fifth in the NL Central and 11 down to St. Louis, pending the Cardinals' result at San Diego later in the day ... The Dodgers return to Los Angeles to play the Cardinals in a weekend series that begins Friday. Opening up that series, the Dodgers have scheduled left hander Chris Capuano (1-2, 4.84) against St. Louis right hander Lance Lynn (6-1, 3.27). Capuano is coming off two straight quality starts, during which he allowed a combined two runs in 13 2/3 innings against Miami and Atlanta ... The Cardinals lead the NL Central and have the best record in the National League, 29-16 entering Wednesday's games ... The Dodgers are done with Milwaukee for the year, winning four of six from the Brew Crew. Milwaukee won six of seven meetings between the two clubs in 2012 ... Teams playing against the Brewers this year apparently get better against them with familiarity. The Brewers are 8-8 in the first game of a series, 8-8 in the second game, 3-10 in the third game and 0-2 in the fourth game.

Bullpen blows up again: Atlanta 5, Dodgers 2

We might say that no lead is safe for the Dodgers, the way their bullpen is going, except that the Dodgers don't score enough to build big leads. Instead, they blow small leads, as they did in Atlanta for the third straight day Sunday, a 5-2 loss.

Receiving another chance to close out a lead, if only by default, Brandon League couldn't get the Atlanta Braves to hit the ball on the ground Sunday (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Share Alike-Attribution Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The game: May 19, Dodgers at Atlanta, National League. The Dodgers entered 17-24, fifth place NL West, seven games behind Arizona. Atlanta entered 24-18, first place NL East, 1 1/2 games ahead of Washington.

The pitchers: Dodgers, Matt Magill, right hander (0-0, 6.92). Atlanta, Mike Minor, left hander (5-2, 2.75).

The result: Atlanta 5, Dodgers 2 (Baseball-reference.com box score).

Summary: The Braves swept out the Dodgers, who blew their third late-inning lead in as many games in Atlanta. But the last two, including Sunday's, were such small leads based on so few runs that it's not reasonable to blame them entirely on the bullpen.

The pitching: Dodgers starter Matt Magill came out getting swings and misses at his four-seam fastball, finishing three strikeouts in the first two innings that way and notching a fourth strikeout during that time frame with his slider. But Atlanta starter Mike Minor matched Magill strikeout for strikeout. Through five innings, both pitchers had eight strikeouts. The difference was that the Dodgers, particularly Carl Crawford, hit some balls hard against Minor, which resulted in their 2-1 lead through five ... The Dodgers bullpen stitched it together in the sixth and seventh innings. In the sixth, lefty J.P. Howell came in with a runner on first and no outs, waited through a rain delay and, right away, had to put up with another runner on base by an error to bring up two on and no outs. But Howell struck out Brian McCann, then got a fly out from Andrelton Simmons. With Saturday's killer, Evan Gattis, coming up as a pinch hitter, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly brought in Ronald Belisario, who threw all sinkers and sliders to force an inning-ending ground ball ... Belisario began the seventh by getting the first two men out, then walking Jordan Schafer. With Jason Heyward, a left-handed hitter, coming up, Mattingly called on lefty Paco Rodriguez, who ruined that strategy by hitting Heyward. So Mattingly called right away on Kenley Jansen, who whiffed Justin Upton by throwing all cutters to end the inning ...

But Jansen began the eighth by allowing a single to Freddie Freeman and a walk to McCann, and the disaster was begun with the Dodgers still up, 2-1 ... Enter Brandon League ... When third baseman Juan Uribe right away booted Simmons' sacrifice, meaning the Dodgers couldn't make an out even when the Braves gave them one, the bases were loaded. Freeman, not a fast runner, was now on third, so the Dodgers might have still choked the inning with a ground ball. In some past failures, League could at least make hitters put the ball on the ground. Not this time ... That was a 94-MPH sinker that pinch hitter Gerald Laird lined to right for a single on the first pitch to knock in the tying run ... That was an 85-MPH splitter that Ramiro Pena hit deep to right for a sacrifice fly to drive in the lead run ... That was an 85-MPH slider that Chris Johnson lined cleanly to left field for another single to knock in another run ... Finally, League got someone to hit the ball on the ground -- because Schafer bunted. That drove home another run, too ...

The hitting: The Dodgers put single runs together with the top of their order in the early innings ... In the first, Carl Crawford led off with a line-drive double to left and moved up on a ground ball to the right side by Mark Ellis, just back from the disabled list. Next, Minor buried a two-strike curve to Matt Kemp in the dirt. Kemp swung and missed for the strikeout, while Braves catcher Brian McCann blocked the pitch. But Adrian Gonzalez followed with a fly ball to center, which knocked in the first run ... In the third, Crawford led off with a walk, took third on Kemp's hard double to left and crossed on another sacrifice fly to left by Gonzalez ... But after the third inning, the Dodgers made 14 straight outs before Andre Ethier walked with two down in the ninth and the Dodgers trailing by then, 5-2.

The base running: The Braves made more outs on the bases than the Dodgers, getting caught stealing twice. Dee Gordon, who makes a big share of the Dodgers' base-running mistakes, began the game on the bench, but entered in a seventh-inning double switch.

The fielding: Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis is letting passed balls by him again -- four this year -- but teams run on him at their peril. In the first inning, Ellis threw out Jason Heyward while Justin Upton swung at strike three to complete an inning-ending double play. In the fourth, Atlanta catcher Brian McCann tried to run on Ellis with Andrelton Simmons batting and two out, but Ellis threw him out ... For the season, Ellis has thrown out 10 of 23 attempting base stealers, 43.5 percent. The league average is 28.6 percent ... Playing shortstop, Nick Punto short-armed his throw for an error in the fifth, allowing Simmons to reach base as the leadoff hitter. The error cost the Dodgers a run, as Atlanta later in the inning hit two two-out singles against Dodger starter Matt Magill to get the run home ... Rain delayed the game with a man on first and one out in the sixth, Dodgers leading, 2-1. After play resumed, the Dodgers were a different team. It began with the very first hitter, when second baseman Mark Ellis botched a grounder, enabling Freddie Freeman to reach and putting runners on first and second ... The killer error came in the bottom of the eighth, runners on first and second, no one out, Dodgers ahead, still 2-1, and Simmons batting. Anyone seeing that game knew Simmons was bunting. But third baseman Juan Uribe came up too fast on the bunt down the third base line and didn't even field it. The error loaded the bases. If Uribe makes the play, they get one out, then the Dodgers can intentionally walk the next batter and maybe get out of it with a double play, except that reliever Brandon League couldn't make anyone hit the ball on the ground. Following Uribe's error came a clean single, a deep sacrifice fly, a clean single and a sacrifice bunt, all of which drove in runs.

Strategic moves: After a loss like this, blaming the manager seems almost obligatory. Surely, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly can't hang it all on his bullpen. In that spirit, but not as a second guess so much as a thought for the future, we'll offer one idea. In the seventh, Dodgers leading, 2-1, Mattingly brought in reliever Kenley Jansen while double-switching with Dee Gordon entering as shortstop to replace Nick Punto. It seemed like an odd choice, considering the following: 1) Punto, we believe, is the team's best defensive third baseman; 2) third baseman Juan Uribe was batting seventh and Punto eighth (The ninth spot was due up for the Dodgers in the eighth. That's where Mattingly slotted Gordon); and 3) with a 2-1 lead, it makes sense to double switch for defense. Thus, it seemed more sensible to put Gordon at short, move Punto from short to third and remove Uribe from the game. As it turned out, Uribe made a crucial error in the eighth to open up a four-run inning by the Braves. The Dodgers only had two more innings to bat at that point, so batting the pitcher seventh instead of eighth would not have been a huge sacrifice. As it turned out, leaving Uribe in to play third base was a huge sacrifice. As it turned out, the seventh spot didn't even bat for the Dodgers in what remained of the game.

What now: The Dodgers fell to 17-25, still fifth in the NL West, seven games behind Arizona. If it's any consolation to the Dodgers, Arizona has the worst first-place record in baseball, 25-19 ... The Braves are 25-18, leading the NL East by 2 1/2 games over Washington ... The Dodgers have a chance to right themselves as they go to Milwaukee for three games. The Brewers are the last-place team in the NL Central at 17-25, same record as the Dodgers ... And the Dodgers will have their three best pitchers going -- Clayton Kershaw, Zack Grienke and Hyun-jin Ryu. We say that as if the Dodgers hadn't just wasted two good starts from Chris Capuano and Matt Magill ... The Milwaukee series starts Monday (5:10 p.m. PDT) with the lefty Kershaw (4-2, 1.40) going against Brewers right hander Yovani Gallardo (3-3, 4.50).

Crawford crashes in left: Atlanta 8, Dodgers 5

More than anything else, poor fielding cost the Dodgers in an 8-5 loss Friday night to open a three-game road series against the Atlanta Braves, who lead the National League East. Dodgers left fielder Carl Crawford made two deadly misplays that were mostly responsible for Atlanta scoring six runs, combined, in the sixth and seventh innings.

It was a bad night in with the glove for Dodgers left fielder Carl Crawford (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The game: May 17, Dodgers at Atlanta, National League. The Dodgers entered 17-22, fifth place NL West, six games behind San Francisco. Atlanta entered 22-18, first place NL East, one-half game ahead of Washington.

The pitchers: Dodgers, Hyun-jin Ryu, left hander (4-2, 3.40). Atlanta, Paul Maholm, left hander (4-4, 3.94).

The result: Atlanta 8, Dodgers 5 (Baseball-reference.com box score).

Summary: The Dodgers handed the Atlanta Braves two game-breaking opportunities through poor pitching and poor fielding. The Braves broke the game with them, scoring six times between the sixth and seventh innings, keyed by Justin Upton's sixth-inning grand slam that put them ahead for good.

The pitching: Dodgers starter Hyun-jin Ryu consistently missed with his first pitch fastball, going ball one on the first pitch with 11 hitters using that selection. All four times when Ryu started a hitter with the changeup, that one missed, too. So, Ryu constantly worked from behind, which is why he already had thrown 100 pitches (44 balls) through five innings. Yet, three of those innings were all but trouble free. Ryu walked five and gave up two runs in his five-inning start. It could have been a lot worse, but he left five runners on base, combined, in the first and third innings ... Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, who replaced Ryu in the sixth, was the best Dodgers pitcher of the night. He faced three hitters and they all should have made outs, but two of them didn't and they ended up scoring (see below, about fielding) ... Ronald Belisario came in for the seventh and gave up two runs, but, he, too, was let down by the Dodgers defense ...

Atlanta left hander Paul Maholm almost doesn't have enough stuff to hit, topping out in the 86-88 MPH range. But he has that in many flavors, and he mixed them together adroitly against a Dodger lineup that entered the game batting .303 against left handers. Maholm didn't exactly have the Dodgers eating out of his hand, but they had to scratch for most of their runs. They scored a run in the second when Dee Gordon beat out the back end of a double play, added two unearned runs courtesy of an error by Atlanta second baseman Dan Uggla in the fourth, then the Dodgers scored in the sixth and the eighth on solo homers by Scott Van Slyke. So, the Dodgers touched Maholm for eight hits and a walk in his six innings, but the Dodgers didn't explode offensively ... Braves closer Craig Kimbrel, a right hander, appeared for the first time since May 9 and struck out two in his ninth-inning stint, completely overmatching left-handed hitting Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier.

The hitting: The two solo home runs by Scott Van Slyke were the clear offensive highlights for the Dodgers ... Blue had hits up and down the lineup -- except from No. 3 hitter Matt Kemp and cleanup man Adrian Gonzalez, who combined to go zero-for-nine. All five Dodger runs came from the five through seven hitters -- A.J. Ellis, Scott Van Slyke and Luis Cruz. The Dodgers even got a couple hits from the nine hole, one from starting pitcher Hyun-jin Ryu and another from pinch hitter Tim Federowicz ... Kemp and Gonzalez didn't kill rallies, but they didn't get them started, either. In the first and third innings, they came up with a runner on first and one out, only to both make outs to end the innings ... The Dodgers entered the game batting .303 against left handers, despite their 6-7 record against left-handed starters. Friday, the Dodgers were nine-for-34 (.264) against lefties and they scored enough runs to win. But once again, against a lefty, they didn't ...

It's hard to give the Braves too much credit for their hitting. Of their nine hits, four might be called "unearned hits," which either came after two-out errors or resulted from poor defensive plays. But those unearned hits were big, accounting for six runs between them ... The Braves scored two runs on their own in the third inning, with their one through four hitters putting together a sequence ... The big news in the offseason was the Braves acquiring Justin Upton and B.J. Upton, the Upton brothers. But the brothers are very different people this season. Justin Upton is batting third in the lineup, .286 with 14 home runs to lead the National League. B.J. Upton is batting eighth and hitting only .141.

The base running: Nick Punto of the Dodgers had the only stolen base in this game. No one was caught stealing and there wasn't any other action on the bases that didn't result from fielders dropping balls.

The fielding: Until the sixth inning, the Dodgers played a decent defensive game. In the second inning, second baseman Nick Punto made a nice back-handed stop to retire Jason Heyward on a ground ball. Shortstop Dee Gordon was eaten up by Chris Johnson short hop in third for single, but it didn't contribute to any runs ... Dodgers outfielders made back-to-back catches to steal extra-base hits in the fifth. With a man on first and no one out, Scott Van Slyke made a sliding catch at the right field foul line to rob Chris Johnson. The next batter, Brian McCann, hit a smash to center field, but Matt Kemp made a nice, falling catch going to his right ... The Braves didn't score that inning, but they would have scored at least twice if the Dodger outfielders didn't make those plays ...

Then, Braves hitters began peppering the left side of the Dodgers defense, exposing that weakness. With one out in the bottom of the sixth, Braves trailing, 4-2, they sent up Jordan Schafer to hit for pitcher Paul Maholm. Schafer hit a popper to medium left field. The left fielder, center fielder and shortstop all converged. It was left fielder Carl Crawford's play all the way. In particular, there's no way he should defer to the shortstop going back that deep. But Crawford deferred and no one caught the ball. No error marked on the play, but the Dodgers might have made two misplays. The center fielder, Matt Kemp, should have called for Crawford to take it (he might have, but there's no word on if he did or didn't), and Crawford should have caught it ... The next batter, Andrelton Simmons, hit a smash at third baseman Luis Cruz, but Cruz didn't catch it. That was an error. Reliever Matt Guerrier should have been out of the inning, and he wasn't ... Those two errors helped set up a game-turning grand slam by Justin Upton ... In the seventh, with two out and Ramiro Pena on third with a triple, Crawford misplayed a fly ball by Simmons and it fell for a two-base error to score Pena. Simmons then scored on a single by Jason Heyward.

One of the problems with quantifying defense is this: While we can make make reasonable assumptions to reconstruct an inning and decide how much an error costs a team, there is no way to tell how many runs are prevented by a sparkling play. In the fourth, with a man on first, Van Slyke popped one up down the right field line. The first baseman, second baseman and right fielder all chased, and it was Heyward, the right fielder, who came in hard and caught the ball tumbling to the ground. The Dodgers ended up scoring twice in that inning, and it almost certainly would have been more without that catch ... The next batter, Cruz, hit a ground ball to inside of second base, leaving second baseman Dan Uggla to decide whether to make a play on the lead runner at second or the batter at first. But you do have to catch it first, and Uggla didn't field it cleanly. Error. The runners ended up scoring on back-to-back, two-out singles ... In the second inning, Uggla made a nice play in short center field to keep Cruz's clean single from going up the middle, temporarily keeping a run from scoring ... But Uggla did not handle a soft liner in the third inning by Nick Punto, resulting in a hit. Mixed night for him ... In the fifth, Braves shortstop Simmons came up to the infield grass to turn a soft grounder by Ellis into an out.

Strategic moves: One of the easiest second guesses against a manager is for pulling, or not pulling, his starting pitcher. Friday night, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly made the right call by pinch hitting for starter Hyun-jin Ryu in the sixth. Ryu already had thrown 100 pitches. If he were about 20 pitches lower at that point, he has to go up there with two out and no one on to stay eligible for the sixth inning. But his control problems cooked him by then ... Ryu's short stint and high pitch count meant Mattingly was in his pen in the sixth inning. Along with two Dodger errors, reliever Paco Rodriguez walked Heyward on a 3-2 pitch that wasn't even close, loading the bases. Mattingly allowed the lefty Rodriguez to pitch to right-handed Justin Upton, who hit a deep grand slam. Mattingly told reporters after the game that he didn't want to burn up all his relievers so early in the game. Rodriguez already was the second reliever of the inning, and he did finish out the inning before Ronald Belisario came in for the seventh.

What now: The Dodgers fell to 17-23, fifth place in the NL West, still six games behind San Francisco. The Braves are 23-17, still leading the NL East by a half-game over Washington. Saturday night in Atlanta (4:10 p.m. PST), the Dodgers are sending lefty Chris Capuano (1-2, 6.60) against Atlanta's Kris Medlen (1-5, 3.44). Capuano prevailed in something of a training wheels start last weekend against Miami, clearing 6 1/3 innings and allowing only one run by throwing almost nothing but a sinker and a changeup. The Atlanta lineup will be much more challenging. The Dodgers haven't seen much of Medlen lately. He last beat them in June 2010 and last year he faced them for only 2/3 of an inning.

As Kemp goes, so go the Dodgers ... badly

Nearly a half-season of games have come and gone since the Dodgers made the big trade with Boston to add offensive pieces around Matt Kemp. But Kemp hasn't given them much to build around -- just seven homers, 31 RBI and a .248 batting average in those games. 

Dodgers centerfielder Matt Kemp has struggled offensively since the front office added hitters to their lineup (Creative Commons image).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

We've realized for quite some time that the Dodgers go as Matt Kemp goes. We're realizing it now more than ever.

Last Aug. 20, the Dodgers stunned the baseball world by taking on $273 million in contracts from the Boston Red Sox. By adding Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, the idea was that the Dodgers would add pieces around Kemp's anticipated production. Before the Red Sox trade, the Dodgers traded to receive Hanley Ramirez from Miami. Thus, the Dodgers added three pieces to Kemp and Andre Ethier, surely enough to create a productive offense in any ball park.

Crawford wasn't available until this season, and Ramirez has all but missed the entire 2013 season, so the group hasn't been together as hoped. But the Dodgers have always had four of those big bats around, and those big bats haven't added up to a big offense.

The Dodgers have played 70 games since the Boston trade – 40 in 2012 and 30 in 2013 – a pretty representative number of games. The Dodgers are 32-38 in those games. The Dodgers have scored a grand total of 250 runs in those games, 3.57 runs per game. They have scored 104 runs in 2013, 14th out of 15 National League teams.

It's commonly understood and not at all surprising that the Dodgers are getting nothing offensively from their shortstops and third basemen, which points to the damage from constant injuries to Ramirez this season. But if we're really looking for a surprising weak link in the Dodgers' surprisingly weak offense, that one is easy.

It's Matt Kemp.

Check out the numbers for Kemp and the Dodgers for the last 40 games of the 2012 season, starting with the Boston trade.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dodgers	1357	146	347	63	4	38	138	99	305	25	9	.256	.314	.392	.706
Kemp	140	19	33	7	0	6	18	9	42	2	1	.236	.289	.414	.704

The Dodgers were 19-21 in those 40 games. Kemp played in 36 of them, during which the Dodgers were 17-19. The Dodgers, as a whole, batted slightly better than Kemp, and they reached base slightly better than Kemp, while Kemp slugged slightly better than the team. But all of these numbers are dismal. And the OPS readings are nearly identical -- .706 for the Dodgers and .704 for Kemp.

So, along comes 2013. A new year. Let's see how different it has been, comparing Kemp with the Dodgers in 2013.

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dodgers	996	104	255	41	2	21	98	110	204	16	3	.256	.335	.364	.699
Kemp	114	13	30	6	0	1	13	10	31	4	0	.263	.323	.342	.665

Kemp is in the lineup every day, and the Dodgers are 13-17 in 2013. In all of his 29 starts, he has batted third or fourth. One hates to mess with Kemp, because the talent and dedication are unmistakable. He's not dogging. He's just struggling. But he is absolutely choking this lineup from an RBI position in the batting order.

The Dodgers' No. 1 and No. 2 hitters -- Carl Crawford and Mark Ellis -- have been excellent, so far. Crawford is batting .311, he has a .383 on-base percentage, he has an .878 OPS (144 OPS-plus), and he has scored only 21 runs in 28 games. Ellis has played in 20 games with only 10 runs to show for it, despite a .342 batting average, a .363 on-base percentage and an .815 OPS (127 OPS-plus).

These guys are setting the table and Kemp isn't eating. Here's a helpful set of numbers from baseball-reference.com (and, as always, that's where we get our numbers). Kemp had 13 RBI in his first 122 plate appearances. The average big league player with 122 plate appearances had 13 RBI. But with Crawford and Ellis on base in front of Kemp, the Dodgers' No. 3 hitter had many more opportunities than the average big league player. Kemp came to the plate with 99 runners on base, 49 of them in scoring position. The average player with 122 plate appearances came to the plate with 73 runners on base, 35 in scoring position. But Kemp has the same 13 RBI.

If Kemp drove in runs at the rate of the average hitter, given that he has more run-producing opportunities in his 122 plate appearances, he would be around 20 RBI. If he were hitting the way we expect Matt Kemp to hit, which is at a level well above the average player, he might be approaching 30 RBI and battling for the league RBI lead.

With runners in scoring position, Kemp has six singles in 33 at-bats for batting and slugging averages of .182, driving in 10 runs. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Kemp has two singles in 13 at-bats for three RBI to go with batting and slugging averages of .254. With two outs, Kemp is seven-for-39 with a double and a homer for five RBI, but his batting average is .179 and his slugging average is .282. In the first inning, which is generally the best chance to score, Kemp is five-for-25 with two doubles, three RBI and a long slash line of .200/.231/.280/.511.

Kemp is tearing it up in the fifth through seventh innings against tiring starters and low-shelf relievers. During those innings, he is 17-for-40 (.425) with three doubles, a homer and eight RBI. In all other at-bats, he is hitting .176 (13-for-74) with no homers and five RBI.

Kemp’s troubles create ripple effects going down the lineup. For example, Gonzalez, batting right behind Kemp, is hitting as expected, .337/.398/.500/.898 for a 150 OPS-plus, about what he has done in his best years. In his first 112 plate appearances of 2013, he drove in 20 runs against an average player’s 11 RBI in 112 plate appearances. Gonzalez is driving in the extra runners the Dodgers have on base for him. He came up with 79 runners on (35 in scoring position), compared with the average hitter's 67 base runners (32 in scoring position). There could be a lot more, except that Kemp is ending a lot of innings, forcing too many at-bats for Gonzalez with the bases empty.

Surely the Dodgers didn’t count on Gonzalez, their cleanup hitter, to lead off innings 30 times already. He’s leading off innings in 26.5 percent of his plate appearances. During his career, he has led off 20.2 percent of the time. Throughout his career, Kemp has been a good two-out hitter (.283 batting, .488 slugging, .842) OPS. But he’s not even close to that, and it’s costing Gonzalez RBI opportunities.

We’re only a month into the season and the numbers are small, but the numbers are large enough to point up a large problem for the Dodgers’ offense. This team is designed for Matt Kemp to lead the league in RBI, and the hitters in front of Kemp are performing in such a way that he should lead the league in RBI. That's not happening.

We've figured for a long time that the Dodgers would go as Matt Kemp goes. Now, we're sure of it.

How else are they going to find them?

At first, one thought the Dodgers were making a move just for the sake of making a splash when they took three huge contracts off the hands of the Boston Red Sox. But when you look at the kind of talent that might be available in free agency for the next couple years, that trade and the Hanley Ramirez deal make a lot of sense.

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

With their audacious reaches for trades, the new Dodgers owners are bidding for the love of their fans. But you know who loves 'em already? The owners of the Florida Marlins and Boston Red Sox. One suspects there will be others.

Two clubs have dusted their hands of major contract problems, thanks to Guggenheim Baseball. The Dodgers have become speculators in bloated contracts, and if it doesn't work out well in the end for the Dodgers, you can already say it's worked out great for the Marlins and Red Sox.

In total, the Dodgers have unburdened the Red Sox and Marlins of $311 million in outstanding contracts, the pro-rated portion of this season included. The Red Sox are feeling $273 million of relief after the Dodgers took Adrian Gonzalez (owed $131 million through 2018), Carl Crawford (owed $107 million through 2017) and Josh Beckett (owed $35 million through 2014). A month earlier, the Dodgers took Hanley Ramirez and $38 million through 2014 off the Marlins payroll.

In those deals, the Dodgers also received Nick Punto and Randy Choate. In those deals, the Dodgers gave up Nathan Eovaldi, James Loney, Allen Webster, Ivan DeJesus, Scott McGough and two players to be named, including Rubby De La Rosa.

It can't work out badly for the Dodgers, and it might even be the best this club can do for itself for a long time. It can't work out badly because the Dodgers have money to burn. They can afford some mistakes. And it's probably the best the Dodgers can do for a long time because ... look at the free agent lists.

The free agent roll this winter features no one like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder or C.J. Wilson. Everyone who makes the star test -- Robinson Cano, David Wright, Curtis Granderson -- has an attractive club option for 2013.

Jake Peavy will be out there. He has one of the most hilarious provisions ever placed in a contract -- a $22 million club option for 2013. Like there was ever a chance the club would pick that up. He's a real good pitcher, though. Next, you might look at Jose Valverde, a fine closer for the last six years, picking up a fair number of Cy Young and MVP votes here and there. His numbers are down this year, particularly his strikeouts, but he puts on a show. If he's on, Dodgers fans would love him.

That's kind of where the free agent list leads. The pickings are slim.  The next possibility one imagines comes from way out of left field: Mariano Rivera. He's 43 now, he will be coming back from ACL surgery, and he is not under contract with the Yankees for 2013. Remember, he was going to retire after this year, but he has vowed that he will not go down that way. You want a star? That's a star. And if talks for 2013 are going a little slow between Rivera and the Yankees, are the Dodgers audacious enough to make a move?

No wonder Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti said this to reporters at the trade announcement: "July and August may have been our free agency." One might think he meant it was the Dodgers free agent season for 2012. But it's probably their free agent season for 2013, as well, because that free agent class is nothing. And forget about 2014, which is an even worse class. Your best players there are Nelson Cruz and Hunter Pence, No. 6 hitters on a good team. A 30-year-old Tim Lincecum is on the list, but it's anyone's guess what his value will be at that point.

Viewed against this backdrop, these recent Dodgers trades aren't merely bold, nor are they as wacky as one might first think. They make a lot of sense.

The Dodgers are acquiring the very best players that are available, period. Their problem isn't that they have money to burn and they're burning it. Their problem is that they have money to burn and there is no other way for them to use that money on top-drawer players than the way we have seen them do it. Namely, by relieving other clubs of contracts that they don't want.

It's not an entirely new strategy. During his years as the general manager in St. Louis, Walt Jocketty picked up Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen when their old clubs were fine with seeing them go. If a player and his club aren't seeing eye-to-eye, that doesn't mean the guy can't play.

These days, it isn't even that personal. The magnitude of a player's contract makes him expendable. Can you imagine the flash that went before the eyes of Red Sox executives when they realized that the Dodgers would really take these contracts off their hands? This was a once-in-a-freak-lifetime opportunity. The Red Sox took almost nothing. It was very sly of the Dodgers to include James Loney.

Every club out there has a contract or two that has the general manager walking the floor at night. Now they have relief. The Dodgers will take your contract that you no longer want, if they want that player. It's the only way they're going to find big league players.

For now. The team president, Stan Kasten, emphasized that the organization won't be where he wants it until the Dodgers are producing a steady stream of players, homegrown stars, Dodger players playing for the Dodgers. That's the ideal.

Player development has always been the true pride of the baseball operation, though, until not long ago, it happened in the shadows. Now, the fans are involved, and they love to talk about the up-and-coming talent. It's safe to say these new owners care a great deal about how they are perceived, and they know there is a lot more to be gained by creating talent than by writing checks to free agents.

Fortunately, for the Dodgers, it's not a matter of cost effectiveness like it is in smaller markets. It's a matter of creating the right kind of baseball culture, and the kind of teams that are really intimate with the fans. It's going to take years. The Dodgers didn't have a lot happening before the trades, and now the pipeline seems next to bare. But they can afford to buy their players until they start piping in their own guys.

In the meantime, love the pyrotechnics as the Dodgers lay out to win now. It is to be hoped that the baseball will be as interesting as the trades.