Nationals start strong in First Division

The Washington Nationals play only 15 games this season in the First Division, so they need to make all of them count. Last week, they opened with a three-game sweep on the road against the San Francisco Giants. Next week, they're in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers, who are in the relegation zone.

Ryan Zimmerman led the way offensively for the Washington Nationals this week against the San Francisco Giants (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

In eight years of playing out the promotion/relegation scheme across baseball, it's never been the case that any team played every other team in its division. By contrast, every team plays every other team every year in basketball, hockey and soccer.

Unlike the other sports in which we operate ordinal divisions with promotion and relegation (soccer style, one might say) baseball draws up huge scheduling imbalances that require us to draw up special rules.

The results lead to questions in baseball about what kind of performance should count as good enough to win a division or be promoted, and what should count as a poor enough performance to guarantee relegation.

From the start, it has been stipulated that any team that wins a division or is promoted in the three eight-team divisions (First, Second and Third) must have played against at least three other teams in the division and must have won at least 10 games. For a team to be demoted from these divisions, a team must have played at least three of the other teams and lost at least 10 games. It also was established that two teams will be promoted from each of these divisions (except the First) and two will be demoted from these divisions every year.

The rules were introduced to keep light schedules from unduly influencing promotion and relegation. They have worked well. There are a couple of other rules, which don't need to be addressed here. And the Fourth Division, which has only six teams, involves other rules still.

This comes up because the Washington Nationals are on the docket for only 15 games in the First Division this year. It is the lightest schedule any team has ever had in the First, Second or Third Divisions.

The schedule is light for the Nationals because there are only three National League teams in the First Division (the others are the Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants). Further, the Nationals have only one interleague opponent in the First Division, which is the Texas Rangers.

It all means that the Nationals must win 10 of their 15 games to even be eligible for the First Division championship, if they don't make the playoffs. The trade-off is that the Nats can't be demoted without losing at least 10 games. Keep in mind, though, that the playoffs also count in the baseball ordinals. That's one of the special rules. Last season, they were decisive.

One can see now why the moment is of some importance, for the Nationals finally played in the First Division this week, sweeping three in San Francisco against the Giants. In the next 10 days, the Nats will play six more First Division games. They will play three in Los Angeles against the Dodgers June 5-7 and three at home against the Rangers June 9-11.

By sweeping the Giants in a series made infamous by the Memorial Day brawl centered on Bryce Harper and Hunter Strickland, the Nationals have made all of those games crucial to the First Division race. 

Harper drew the headlines after retaliating against Strickland, who threw at the National star's hip in their first meeting since Harper hit two home runs off him in the 2014 playoffs. But the star for the Nationals was Ryan Zimmerman, who went five-for-12 (.417) with two homers and five RBI in the three games.

Looking here at the standings, one sees the Nationals listed on top at 3-0 with a 1.000 winning percentage, ahead of the Red Sox at 9-4 and .692, even though the Red Sox are a game ahead of the Nationals. Again, we note the imbalance. Most often, the percentage column and the games behind column will match, but not always. If one team wins the percentage column and a different team wins the games column, we declare a split championship. Fair enough.

There is more to note in the First Division standings. Down there on the very bottom are the Texas Rangers, already 2-10. The Rangers appear doomed for demotion. But they have 17 games left in the First Division, so there's still time for them to dig their way out of relegation.

For that to happen, though, the Rangers will need two other teams to collapse. Joining the Rangers in the relegation zone at the moment are the Dodgers at 4-6, all against the Giants. Next week's series with Washington visiting Dodger Stadium looms large at the top and the bottom of the First Division standings.

The Second Division is mostly the way we last found it, with the New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks holding the promotional positions. The relegation zone is crowded, with the Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals all within one-half game of each other. The Pirates and Mets meet this weekend in a key series.

Likewise, the Third Division looks about the same. The Houston Astros have all but written their ticket for promotion. The Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox are scheduled lightly in this division, 23 games for each club, so making the 10-win threshold with a good enough percentage for promotion will challenge each club.

The interesting club here is the Angels, who still are a .500 team across their big league schedule despite numerous injuries. Mike Trout went on the disabled list on May 31 for a thumb surgery.

The good news for the Angels is that they have only six Third Division games in June and July, but 26 such games from Aug. 1 through the end of the season. Trout should be back by Aug. 1. The Angels also hope for the returns of pitchers Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs by then. 

If the Angels can get a healthy club working for the last two months of the season, they're looking at an excellent chance for promotion back to the Second Division. 

The Minnesota Twins took over first place in the Fourth Division last week by going into Baltimore and sweeping three games from the Baltimore Orioles. The Twins beat Baltimore every which way. First, on May 22, the Twins thumped Baltimore, 14-7, with homers by Miguel Sano and Max Kepler. The next day, Ervin Santana pitched a complete-game shutout for a 2-0 win. On the third day, the Twins took a 4-0 lead early and held on for a 4-3 victory.

The sweep doesn't finish Baltimore off, by any means, but it's merely another episode in their snake-bitten stay in the Fourth Division, to which they were banished for their fold in the 2014 American League championship series.

The Orioles began this history in the Fourth Division in 2010 and, despite their success under the field management of Buck Showalter, they have never been promoted past the Third Division.

Dick Allen Award: Marlins making runs matter

With Giancarlo Stanton having his best year and Dee Gordon adding juice to the top of their lineup, the Miami Marlins are much improved offensively. They are defending their first Dick Allen Award in two years this weekend against the Cincinnati Reds.

Giancarlo Stanton has 10 homers in June, approaching his own Miami Marlins records for most home runs in a month (Arturo Pardavila III/Creative Commons Attribution Generic 2.0 license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Miami Marlins are defending the Dick Allen title for the first time in two years this weekend, which makes this a worthwhile time to look at two players on that club who really are ripping it up.

The Marlins took the Allen by winning three of four at home against the Colorado Rockies June 11-14 before going into four interleague games against the New York Yankees. The Marlins picked up their National League schedule this weekend in Cincinnati, where they were 35-55 all-time against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds won the opener Friday night, 5-0, marking the 11th straight time the Reds held Miami to four runs or fewer going back to May 14, 2013, about a month before the Marlins last won the Allen. The Marlins returned the favor Saturday with a 5-0 win against the Reds behind seven shutout innings by Justin Nicolino, who allowed only four hits in his Major League debut.

So, the Marlins and Reds will meet Sunday for the Dick Allen. The Reds are taking their third crack this year at the Allen, but they have yet to win it and they are 2-6 this season in Allen games.

After giving the impression of being a team on the rise last season, the Marlins are only 30-40 overall this season playing in the weak National League East. The problem is not their offense.

In 2013, the Marlins ranked last in the National League with only 39 games in which they scored five or more runs. Last year, they improved to 56 such games, raising their ranking to ninth in the NL. This year, they have reached five or more runs in 28 games, which ties them for fifth with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Their best hitter is Giancarlo Stanton, who is one of the best hitters anywhere. Stanton leads the Major Leagues with 25 homers, reaching that mark in only 67 games. Stanton became the fourth player in the last 10 years to reach 25 homers that fast, behind Albert Pujols (who did it in 49 games in 2006), Alex Rodriguez (63 in 2007) and Jose Abreu (67 in 2014).

Stanton has 10 home runs in June, approaching his own club record for most home runs in any month (12 in May 2012). The most home runs in a month by any player this year is 13 by Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals in May.

Then, there's Dee Gordon, who went to Miami from the Dodgers in a batch of trades that ended with the Dodgers getting Howie Kendrick from the Angels to play second base. A lot of people around the Dodgers like Kendrick at second base, but it's hard to say they're better off without Gordon.

Friday night, Gordon reached 100 hits this season in his 65th game, becoming only the sixth player in the National League since 1961 to get there that quickly. The fastest was another speed merchant, Ralph Garr, who reached 100 hits for the Atlanta Braves in his first 62 games of the 1974 season. Gordon entered this weekend's series on a pace to have 131 hits at the All-Star break, averaging 1.5 hits per game. He had one hit in each of the first two games of the Cincinnati series.

The Marlin last won the Allen June 20-23, 2013, on the road, taking three of four from the San Francisco Giants. The Marlins defended the prize twice before losing three straight on the road to the St. Louis Cardinals July 5-7 that year. Historically, the Marlins are 24-24 in games for the Allen, winning the prize three times and defending it in three of five attempts. This weekend's series is their 15th series for the prize all time.

Between their last successful title defense and this year's Allen victory against the Rockies, the Marlins were 4-12 in Allen games, failing four attempts to win it.

All-time in the Allen games, the Reds are 53-53. This weekend's series is their 36th for the Allen. They have won nine titles since the prize began during the 2011 season.

East League: The Nationals are coming

The New York Mets still lead the East League. But the Washington Nationals, the club that was supposed to dominate a weak National League East, finally are being that club. A 10-2 run in the last two weeks has shot the Nationals up the East League standings.

Bryce Harper was the big star for the Washington Nationals the last couple of weeks, hitting six homers during a 12-game stretch. (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Despite cooling off quite a bit in the last couple of weeks, the New York Mets remain the leaders in the East League.

But the New York Yankees are right with them now, and the Washington Nationals are gaining with a 10-2 run from April 28 through May 10. With that streak, the Nationals picked up 3½ games on first place, and now trail the Mets by three games. The Yankees are 1½  game behind the Mets.

The Nationals helped themselves quite a lot by winning three of four from the Mets at CitiField April 20-May 3, including back-to-back 1-0 victories by pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister.

But the real trigger to this has been Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper, who hit six homers with five doubles and 17 RBI in those 12 games to go with a .356 batting average and a 1.319 OPS. As a team, the Nats batted .306 with 17 homers and an 852 OPS in those games, averaging 6.0 runs per game.

The Yankees have won 10 of their last 15 in the East League, reducing their deficit to the Mets from three games to 1½ games.

This week will be pretty light in the East League. During the early part of the week, the only league action involves the Yankees at the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays at the Baltimore Orioles. At the end of the week, the only two Eastern teams playing each other will be the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins.

Games of April 27
at Boston 6, Toronto 5.
at New York (AL) 4, Tampa Bay 1.
at Atlanta 8, Washington 4.
New York (NL) 3, at Miami 1.

Games of April 28
Toronto 11, at Boston 8.
at New York (AL) 4, Tampa Bay 2.
Washington 13, at Atlanta 12.
at Miami 4, New York (NL) 3.

Games of April 29
at Boston 5, Toronto 2.
Tampa Bay 3, at New York (AL) 2.
Washington 13, at Atlanta 4.
at Miami 7, New York (NL) 3.

Games of April 30
Washington 8, at New York (NL) 2.

Games of May 1
New York (AL) 3, Boston 2.
at Tampa Bay 2, Baltimore 0.
at Miami 4, Philadelphia 3.
at New York (NL) 4, Washington 0.

Games of May 2
New York (AL) 4, at Boston 2.
Baltimore 4, at Tampa Bay 0.
at Miami 7, Philadelphia 0.
Washington 1, at New York (NL) 0.

Games of May 3
New York (AL) 8, Boston 5.
Baltimore 4, at Tampa Bay 2.
Philadelphia 6, at Miami 2.
Washington 1, at New York (NL) 0.

Games of May 4
Tampa Bay 5, at Boston 1.
at Toronto 3, New York (AL) 1.
Philadelphia 5, at Atlanta 2.
at Washington 6, Miami 4.

Games of May 5
at Boston 2, Tampa Bay 0.
New York (AL) 6, Toronto 3.
at Atlanta 9, Philadelphia 0.
Miami 2, at Washington 1.
at New York (NL) 3, Baltimore 2.

Games of May 6
Tampa Bay 5, at Boston 3.
at Toronto 5, New York (AL) 1.
at Atlanta 7, Philadelphia 5.
at Washington 7, Miami 5.
at New York (NL) 5, Baltimore 1.

Games of May 7
at New York (AL) 4, Baltimore 3.

Games of May 8
at New York (AL) 5, Baltimore 4.
at Toronto 7, Boston 0.
at Philadelphia 3, New York (NL) 1.
at Washington 9, Atlanta 2.

Games of May 9
Baltimore 6, at New York (AL) 2.
at Toronto 7, Boston 1.
New York (NL) 3, at Philadelphia 2.
at Washington 8, Atlanta 6.

Games of May 10
at New York (AL) 6, Baltimore 2.
Boston 6, at Toronto 3.
New York (NL) 7, Philadelphia 4.
at Washington 5, Atlanta 4.

Games of May 11
at Baltimore 5, Toronto 2.
New York (AL) 11, at Tampa Bay 5.

Games of May 12
at Tampa Bay 4, New York (AL) 2.
Toronto 10, at Baltimore 2.

Kershaw no Koufax ... and thank heaven!

Comparisons between Clayton Kershaw and Sandy Koufax are inevitable and, fortunately, misguided. Kershaw will never be used as Koufax was used, which means we don't have to worry that Kershaw will retire at age 30 with a traumatically arthritic left arm. That aside, Kershaw not only is the best pitcher, but the best complete baseball player going today.

Clayton Kershaw, left, and Sandy Koufax, right, aren't exactly mirror images (Original crop and collage. Kershaw photo by kla4067/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license. Koufax photo by unknown. It is believed that this cropped, low-resolution image constitutes fair use in the absence of a public domain image).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

Appropriate witness to the greatness of Clayton Kershaw is easily to be found, except in these pages, and we shall attempt to rectify that error forthwith.

Our version shall contain a slightly different wrinkle, however, for the usual account contains the details of Kershaw's standing merely as a pitcher, of which he is the best in the world at this moment, and for at least the last three or four years of moments, and, perhaps for three or four years of moments hence, if not for longer. 

If all one knows about Kershaw is the man on the mound and the pitches coming from his hand, that, alone, imparts the knowledge that the Dodgers left-hander is the best. The fastball isn't 100 miles per hour, but he has gotten it to 98, and he works it 92-95 with puzzling late movement that sometimes tails in on a right-handed hitter, highly unusual for a left-handed pitcher. But that slider, which touches 88, probably is his best pitch, and his looping 12-to-6 curveball is his most beautiful. They all work. Sometimes, rarely, he throws a changeup. It works, too. 

If all one knows about Kershaw is what appears on the spreadsheet, the black ink imparts the knowledge that the Dodgers left-hander is the best. Kershaw won his 19th game of 2014 on Sept. 14 in San Francisco, a 4-2 win against the San Francisco Giants. With 19 wins, Kershaw leads the National League, despite missing the entire month of April with injury. He missed four or five starts that way, enough for four or five wins. He's 19-3. He also leads the NL in complete games (six), ERA (1.70), winning percentage (.864), ERA-plus (210), fielding independent pitching (1.86), WHIP (0.826), fewest hits per nine innings pitched (6.1), strikeouts per nine innings pitched (10.6) and strikeouts per walk (7.82). He already won the Cy Young Award in 2011 and 2013, finished second in 2012, and has to win it again this year.

Kershaw now is working on his fourth straight NL ERA title, his third straight league leadership in ERA-plus, his fourth straight league leadership in WHIP, and his third league leadership in four years in fewest hits allowed per nine innings (which also is his fourth in six years). 

Comparisons with the all-time great Dodgers left-hander Sandy Koufax are inevitable, and they are rather forced. Each is the best left-hander of his time. That's where it ends, and where it should end. These are different times, and they are different men. Additionally, the great Koufax we remember and the great Kershaw of today are in different stages of their careers.

Behold, to begin, this composite of Koufax's last four seasons, 1963 through the present point in 1966. We'll never see anything like it again.

The closest to it that we will see today is this composite of Kershaw's last four years, 2011 through this point in 2014. It dazzles, but it does not compare.

We should remember, however, that Kershaw was much younger for the last four years than Koufax during 1963-1966. Kershaw is 26 today. Koufax was 30 when he retired at the end of the 1966 season. When we compare Koufax in the four years through his age 26 season to Kershaw's four years to this point, Kershaw is ahead, hands down. Here is the composite for Koufax for the four years ending with his age 26 season in 1962.

The Koufax we came to know began in 1963, his age 27 season, when he won the first of his three Cy Young Awards in four years. Kershaw will never be that guy, which is for the best. Teams invest too much in their premium pitchers today to load them up with 330 innings per year and force their retirements just so they may have functioning arms for the rest of their lives. Koufax did just that, and for just that reason, after the 1966 season.

At his retirement press conference, Koufax was asked, famously, how he could walk away from all the money he could make as a baseball player. Koufax replied that if a man lost the use of one of his arms, he would pay any amount of money to get it back and that, in a sense, is what he was doing. Koufax made $125,000 in 1966, claiming the highest salary in the game due largely to his dual holdout with Don Drysdale. 

Koufax already knew he was in trouble when he missed the last six weeks of the 1964 season with traumatic arthritis in his left arm. At the end of spring training in 1965, his arm was black and blue from hemorrhaging. He papered over it with cocktails of pain-killing drugs, ointments and ice, then pitched 335 2/3 innings that year. His feats of sacrificial endurance continued through Game 7 of the World Series, when he entered on two days of rest before all but ditching his curveball by the third inning. Throwing almost all fastballs, Koufax beat the Minnesota Twins, 2-0, in a complete-game three-hitter. 

Then came 1966, with its 27-9 record, its 1.73 ERA, its 41 starts, its 27 complete games, its five shutouts, its 323 innings and its 317 strikeouts, all league-leading totals. Then came his retirement.

Kershaw will never go through anything like that, and we should be grateful. No club would be dumb enough to abuse a great pitcher to that extent. The reason no club would be that dumb isn't so much that clubs are enlightened, as that they are invested. The Dodgers have Kershaw signed to a seven-year contract worth $215 millions. Or, we should say, Kershaw has the Dodgers signed to that contract. Koufax had the Dodgers signed to nothing, so tearing him up cost the Dodgers nothing. Those were the days before the union mattered, though Koufax also deserves credit for helping to make the union matter. His dual holdout with Drysdale showed players what they might accomplish by bargaining collectively. His early retirement showed players what they might lose by not bargaining collectively, though they were beginning to realize that already.

Kershaw is signed for six more seasons, at annual salaries from 2015 through 2020 ranging from $30 million to $33 million. At the end of that contract, Kershaw will be 32. Those salaries are guaranteed. The Dodgers are paying them even if Kershaw's arms fall off. The Dodgers will bear most any burden to keep those arms from falling off. The bore no such burden for Koufax.

So, Kershaw isn't Koufax, and we don't want him to be Koufax. Kershaw is something else, entirely, and, for this, he doesn't receive nearly his deserved credit.

Kershaw isn't merely a great pitcher, the greatest of our time. He is much more than that, an outstanding baseball player at all facets of the game. Pitchers aren't supposed to be great baseball players, and few are. They are supposed to be great pitchers, and few are even that. Kershaw is a great performer in every aspect of the game. He might not be Babe Ruth if he had the chance, but comparisons with Babe Ruth make about as much sense as comparisons with Koufax – if comparisons between Ruth and anyone make any sense, or, for that matter, if comparisons between Koufax and anybody make any sense. Ruth, of course, was a dominant left-handed pitcher with the Boston Red Sox before he became a dominant power hitter with the New York Yankees.

Kershaw has one home run in his whole life, a memorable blast on Opening Day 2013 to beat the Giants, 1-0. In his last four seasons, he is a .196 hitter, remarkable for any pitcher, considering that they place no emphasis on hitting. As a batter, Kershaw has positive WAR in his career (1.2). It is absolutely no rarity for Kershaw to throw a complete game and go one-for-three at the plate. Excepting the concern about possible injury, a manager in a bind wouldn't hesitate to run him up there as a left-handed pinch hitter.

Nor would such a manager hesitate to use Kershaw as a pinch runner, because he has more presence of mind and competitive drive on the bases than many everyday players. We saw a great example on Sept. 2, when the Washington Nationals visited Dodger Stadium. Batting with one out in the bottom of the fifth in a scoreless game, Kershaw singled. When Dee Gordon followed with a ground single to center field, Kershaw challenged Nationals center fielder Bryce Harper with a sprint to third base. Kershaw won the challenge, easily beating Harper's throw and enabling Gordon to take second. Kershaw, the pitcher, set a tone that day. Kershaw, the batter and base runner, finished it. With two out that inning, Adrian Gonzalez hit a ground ball to short and the Washington shortstop, Ian Desmond, lost so much nerve thinking about an aggressive Kershaw and a speedy Gordon that he threw wildly to home and both runners scored. The Dodgers won that game, 4-1.

As a defender, Kershaw's perfectionism continues. He won a Gold Glove in 2011, and certainly could argue for more. Kershaw has made only four errors in his entire career, which comes to 209 appearances (207 starts) his fielding percentages have been higher than the league averages for pitchers ever year starting with 2009 and, by the defensive runs saved metric, he saves five runs per game as a defender compared with other pitchers over the last four years.

Koufax, great of a pitcher as he was, never was any match for Kershaw as a hitter, base runner or fielder, by the metrics or by eye witness testimony.

It isn't simply that Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher of our time. There isn't a better complete player, period.

Editor's note: All advanced statistics in this piece are from Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.

NL East: Two up, three down

The National League East almost certainly can't involve anyone other than the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals in 2013. Each has won it in the last two years, and no one else is even close to contending for even a wild card spot.

Cliff Lee, with a 7.3 WAR in 2013, was the most productive player in the National League East by that measure (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The National League East shapes up, by 2013 WAR, as a matter of two clubs, the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals. The Braves won it last year. This year, it figures to be the Nationals, especially after spring injuries to Atlanta pitchers Kris Medlen and Mike Minor.

By 2013 WAR, this is quite a close race, with Atlanta scoring 45.7 against 44.7 for the Nationals. The Braves actually beat the Nats by 10 games in 2013, but the gap has been closed somewhat with the Nats adding nearly 5.0 WAR to their pitching staff between the additions of Doug Fister and Jerry Blevins, while the Braves lost catcher Brian McCann.

The other three clubs look weak here, though the Miami Marlins have a chance to come up fastest after young pitching made a good showing in 2013.

Following is a list of each team in the division, giving each club's "top half" position players by 2013 WAR, its "second-level" position players, its top-level pitchers and second-level pitchers. For the top-half position players, we give the player's position and where he ranked at the position across big league baseball in 2013 WAR, then the actual WAR value for the player. For every other category, we give the player's overall 2013 WAR ranking, understanding that pitchers and position players are ranked separately.

More about all of this, including some important clarifications, can be found here. Bear in mind, though, that the 2013 WAR totals for each club only include these top players, and every club will have players with little, no or negative WAR value that actually would drag down its totals.

Atlanta Braves (45.7 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 1B: Freddie Freeman 5, 5.5; SS: Andrelton Simmons, 1, 6.7; RF; Jason Heyward, 9, 3.6; LF: Justin Upton, 11, 2.6. Totals: four players 18.4 WAR.

Second-level position players — Chris Johnson, 144, 2.0; Ramiro Pena, 208, 1.0. Jordan Schafer, 213, 0.9. Totals: three players, 3.9 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Craig Kimbrel, 37, 3.3; Kris Medlen, 39, 3.3; Julio Teheran, 41, 3.2; Mike Minor, 45, 3.1; Ervin Santana, 52, 2.9; Luis Avilan, 72, 2.4; David Carpenter, 90, 2.1. Totals: seven pitchers, 20.3 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Alex Wood, 177, 1.1; Anthony Varvaro, 202, 0.8; David Hale, 222, 0.7; Freddy Garcia, 234, 0.6. Totals: four pitchers, 3.2 WAR.

The most striking reading on the Braves is four starting pitchers in that 31-60 range by 2013 WAR -- Medlen, Teheran, Minor and Santana — meaning four No. 2 starters. Their fifth-best starter, Avilan, is a No. 3 by these criteria. Thus, the Braves figure to win the pitching match-up in most games they play, even though this group doesn't include a clear No. 1. And they'll finish games better than anyone else in the National League with Kimbrel.

The shortstop, Simmons, is the best across the game by 2013 WAR. Despite winning the NL batting title in 2013, Johnson finished 20th among big league third basemen by 2013 WAR, meaning the Braves still could use an upgrade. With McCann gone, the Braves still have a plus catcher in Pena.

Washington Nationals (44.7 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — SS: Ian Desmond, 6, 3.7; 3B: Ryan Zimmerman, 10, 3.8; RF; Jayson Werth, 5, 4.8; LF: Bryce Harper, 5, 3.8; C: Wilson Ramos, 11, 2.4. Totals: Five players, 18.5 WAR.

Second-level position players — Denard Span, 110, 2.4;  Nate McLouth, 161, 1.6; Adam LaRoche, 217, 0.9. Totals: three player. Totals: Three players, 4.9 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Doug Fister, 21, 4.1; Jordan Zimmerman, 28, 3.7; Stephen Strasburg, 45, 3.1; Gio Gonzalez, 49, 3.0; Tanner Roark, 91, 2.0; Tyler Clippard, 105, 1.8. Totals: Six pitchers, 17.7 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Craig Stammen, 183, 1.0; Ross Ohlendorf, 188, 0.9; Rafael Soriano, 195, 0.9; Jerry Blevins,  204, 0.8; (4, 3.6)

The only club around here (or anywhere) for starting pitchers that looks better than the Braves is Washington, with Fister and Zimmermann in the top 30, then Strasburg and Gonzalez in the next 30. That's to say the Nats have two No. 1s and two No. 2s. And Roark, the fifth best starter on this club, comes in as a No. 3 by 2013 WAR. Add to all that five relievers who hit the top 240, and this team figures to pitch.

The Nationals could have done with a little more star turning by Harper, Zimmerman and Werth. That, and the discovery of a second baseman, would give this club a complete lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies (29.6 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — RF: Marlon Byrd, 4, 5.0; LF: Domonic Brown, 12, 2.5; (2, 7.5)

Second-level position players — Carlos Ruiz, 155, 1.7; Ben Revere, 227, 0.8; (2, 2.5)

Top-level pitchers — Cliff Lee, 2, 7.3; Cole Hamels, 16, 4.6; A.J. Burnett, 111, 1.7; (3, 13.6)

Second-level pitchers — Jonathan Papelbon, 125, 1.5; Jonathan Pettibone, 126, 1.5; Chad Gaudin 149, 1.3; Kyle Kendrick, 182, 1.0; Jake Diekman, 222, 0.7; (5, 6.0)

Look how little offense we can find on a club that includes Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. None of these old horses even made these rankings at any level. The Phillies had to sign free-agent Marlon Byrd just to reach two players into the top half in their positions.

Some pretty good pitching here between Lee and Hamels. The Phils have famously had trouble getting leads up to Papelbon as the closer.

Miami Marlins (26.7 in 2013 WAR) 

Top-half position players — RF: Giancarlo Stanton, 14, 2.4; C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 10, 2.9. Totals: Two players, 5.3 WAR.

Second-level position players — Ed Lucas, 168, 1.5; Christian Yelich, 176, 1.4; Jeff Baker, 235, 0.7. Totals: Three players, 3.6 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Jose Fernandez, 6, 6.3; Nathan Eovaldi, 80, 2.2; Steve Cishek, 83, 2.1; Henderson Alvarez, 100, 1.9; Mike Dunn, 117, 1.6. Totals: Five pitchers, 14.1 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Jacob Turner, 134, 1.4; A.J. Ramos, 197, 0.9; Tom Koehler, 203, 0.8; Kevin Slowey, 234, 0.6. Totals: Four pitchers, 3.7 WAR.

The framework for this club is the young starting pitchers, particularly Fernandez, Eovaldi, Turner and Koehler. Lots to like. And though Stanton ranked only 14th among big league right fielders by 2013 WAR, everyone knows he's real.

This is a club that tore down last season and started all over. Indeed, the Marlins had to go beyond starting over. The club made a move in the right direction in 2012, moving to its rightful home in the Little Havana section of Miami and changing its official location to "Miami," before the manager, Ozzie Guillen, made his bone-headed declaration of love for Fidel Castro. Then, a cast of veteran players tanked. No slack here for Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria, but there's also no reason to spend a bundle and finish in last place. It's more fun watching a young club try to improve.

New York Mets (24.5 in 2013 WAR)

Top-half position players — 3B: David Wright, 5, 5.9; CF: Juan Lagares, 10, 3.7. Totals: Two players, 9.6 WAR.

Second-level position players — Daniel Murphy, 150, 1.8; Josh Satin, 194, 1.2; Curtis Granderson,195, 1.1. Totals: Three players, 4.1 WAR.

Top-level pitchers — Bartolo Colon, 14, 5.1; Dillon Gee, 78, 2.2. Totals: Two pitchers, 7.3 WAR.

Second-level pitchers — Zack Wheeler, 170, 1.2; Carlos Torres, 197, 0.9; Bobby Parnell, 211, 0.7; Jonathon Niese, 220, 0.7. Totals: Four pitchers, 3.5 WAR.

They say it's worse in New York to be irrelevant than the be terrible. The Mets are both. They made a little bit of an effort to improve with the free-agent additions of Colon and Granderson. But it won't be nearly enough.

We didn't include pitcher Matt Harvey here because he is out all season with injury, but he would have added 5.2 WAR to the pitching staff. He and Colon would have given the Mets a front two in the rotation to rival anyone outside the Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners. David Wright is a great player. Not much else to say here.

Beckett bombs, Dodgers blunder: Washington 6, Dodgers 2

The Dodgers didn't make pitches or plays in their 6-2 loss to the Washington Nationals at Dodger Stadium Monday night. The Dodgers batted only one-for-11 with runners in scoring position, and they matched that performance on the field and the bases.

Dodgers starting pitcher Josh Beckett had to leave Monday night's 6-2 loss to Washington with groin pain after three innings (Keith Allison/Creative Commons Share Alike-Attribution Generic license).

By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The game: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, National League. Washington entered 20-17, second place NL East, one game behind Atlanta. Los Angeles entered 15-21, fifth place NL West, seven games behind San Francisco.

The pitchers: Washington, Jordan Zimmermann, right hander (6-1, 1.59). Los Angeles, Josh Beckett, right hander (0-4, 5.13)

The result: Washington 6, Los Angeles 2

Summary: Jordan Zimmermann tossed a nice start for the Nationals, scattering nine hits in 7 2/3 innings, while Josh Beckett had to leave after pitching the first three innings for the Dodgers, during which he allowed four runs. But the real difference in this game was that the Nationals made plays and the Dodgers didn't.

The pitching: Washington's Jordan Zimmermann didn't throw anything but a four-seam fastball for the first two innings and the Dodgers barely touched him. That was his ball game. Here it is. Hit it. Through five innings, he threw 59 pitches, all four-seamers except for eight sliders and four curves. Through seven innings, Zimmerman threw 83 pitches, all four-seamers except for 14 sliders, four curves. Through all of that, the Dodgers scored one run. They simply could not hit Zimmermann's fastball. All of the Dodgers hits against Zimmermann (they only had six through seven innings) came on fastballs, but so did all but three of their outs ... Zimmermann struck out five and walked none …

Dodgers starter Josh Beckett completely lost his control in the third inning and couldn't find the plate with either fastball or his changeup. He walked the pitcher leading off the inning on five pitches, then went 2-0 to Steve Lombardozzi before the hitter ripped a liner past Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Right off that, Beckett walked Bryce Harper on five pitches, then he went 2-0 to Ryan Zimmerman before the batter doubled to right, driving in two runs. Beckett left the game after the third, complaining of groin pain.

The hitting: When you have one of the fastest runners in the game, Dee Gordon, on third, with nobody out and the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier coming up, you should score. Unless you're the Dodgers, in which case you probably shouldn't. At least, the Dodgers didn't when that chance came their way in the fourth inning. The best swing the Dodgers got was Ethier's hard beater into the ground for the third out ... No big surprise there. Washington starter Jordan Zimmermann entered the game with opposing hitters batting .156 with runners in scoring position, and the Dodgers were batting .228 with runners in scoring position ... Kemp did get a hit later on with a runner in scoring position, extending his hitting streak to 12 games ... Washington hitters didn't exactly destroy the ball. Other than Ryan Zimmerman's third-inning double and the smash by Steve Lombardozzi that preceded it, Washington hitters just put the ball in play and let the Dodgers fielders take care of it. Or not.

The base running: Dee Gordon did some nice stuff on the bases  -- and some questionable stuff. In the fourth, he stole second, forcing an errant throw from Washington catcher Kurt Suzuki and taking third with no outs. But he didn't score, partly because nobody hit behind him, and partly because he didn't seize opportunity. When the next hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, popped out to second baseman Danny Espinosa in short center field, Gordon didn't run, even though the second baseman was running toward the outfield. That was a run the Dodgers missed … In the eighth, with one out, Gordon hit a ground ball, but beat out the back end of the double play to keep the inning alive. Now, the Dodgers were down, 6-1, with two out in the eighth and Gordon on first. Adrian Gonzalez then singled to right field, where Roger Bernadina, instead of Bryce Harper, was playing for the Nationals. Gordon didn't even consider trying to take third. He scored, anyway, because Matt Kemp followed with a single. Gordon would have broken all the verities of the game if he were thrown out at third to end the inning with his team behind. So, we can't really blame Gordon for not putting his speed to work there. But there is that little voice that wanted him to force a throw ... In the sixth, Carl Crawford stole third base with Kemp batting and two out. But Kemp popped up to end the inning ... The Nationals twice took third base from first on singles to right field.

The fielding: Washington made several good-but-not-great plays, those plays a team must make to contend. The Dodgers blew several fairly routine plays, which is one reason they're in last place ... In the fourth, with Dee Gordon on third and no outs, Washington second baseman Danny Espinosa made a nice catch with his back to the infield in short center on Adrian Gonzalez's pop-up. To end the inning, Washington first baseman Adam LaRoche kept a late hop from hitting his face on a ground ball by Andre Ethier, but recovered and made a seated throw to Jordan Zimmerman at first for the out. In the sixth, Washington shortstop Ian Desmond went quickly to his left to take a grounder up the middle from A.J. Ellis, then threw to first for the out ... Even the big disaster of the night at least illustrated that the Nationals are serious about their defense. In the fifth, Ellis hit a smash to deep right field. Washington right fielder Bryce Harper went after it full speed in a 6-0 game and smashed into the fence face first. Ellis ended up with a triple and scored on a ground ball. Harper, on the ground for several minutes with cuts on his forehead, chin and right hand, is day-to-day ...

Now, the Dodgers. In the third, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez misplayed a smash from Steve Lombardozzi for an error. The ball skidded into right field and opened up a three-run inning. In the fifth, shortstop Dee Gordon crossed in front of second base to misplay grounder by Lombardozzi, even though Dodgers second baseman Skip Schumaker was behind him for a relatively routine play. Gordon ended up screening off Schumaker and the ball went into center field for a single. One batter later, after Bryce Harper walked, Dodgers reliever Javy Guerra made a bad pickoff throw trying to take Lombardozzi off second. Gordon ended up having to lay out to the third base side trying to catch the throw, but it went into center field, allowing Lombardozzi to score and Harper to take third ... In the sixth, the Dodgers added two more miscues. First, catcher A.J. Ellis let a passed ball by him, allowing Jordan Zimmermann, who had singled, to take second. Later, Roger Bernadina hit a ground ball to first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, but pitcher J.P. Howell didn't cover first base in time and everyone was safe ... The Dodgers did make one notably nice defensive play, when third baseman Nick Punto went to his right to take a hard bouncer down the line from Danny Espinosa, then made a sharp throw to first for the out.

Strategic moves: Sometimes, one wonders what Don Mattingly is to do. Entering the Monday game, his No. 3 hitter, Matt Kemp, was six-for-36 (.166) with runners in scoring position, and his No. 4 hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, was 14-for-28 (.500) in those situations. With the tough right hander, Jordan Zimmerman, going for Washington, Mattingly flipped them, so the left-handed Gonzalez would bat third and the right-handed Kemp would bat fourth. How did that work out? Kemp was one-for-three with runners in scoring position, and Gonzalez was zero-for-two.

What now: The Dodgers fell to 15-22, increasing their last-place distance from San Francisco to 7 1/2 games in the NL West. Washington improved to 21-17 and remains one game behind Atlanta in the NL East. Tuesday night, it's back to left hander Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 1.62) for the Dodgers in their series with the Nationals at Dodger Stadium. The Nationals are going with veteran right hander Dan Haren (4-3, 5.17).

Zimmermann stops another good lineup: Nats 3, Tigers 1

Jordan Zimmermann might be the hottest pitcher in big league baseball. He shut down a potent lineup for the third straight time Wednesday, leading the Washington Nationals to a 3-1 win against the Detroit Tigers. Zimmermann now is 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA.

Washington Nationals pitcher Jordan Zimmermann has rifled through the lineups of the Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers in his last three starts (Keith Allison/Creative Commons).


By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Game: May 8, Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals, interleague. Detroit entered 19-11, first place AL Central, 1 1/2 games ahead of Kansas City. Washington entered 17-15, second place NL East, two games behind Atlanta.

The pitchers: Detroit, Anibal Sanchez (3-2, 1.82). Washington,  Jordan Zimmermann (5-1, 1.64).

The result: Washington 3, Detroit 1

Summary: Zimmermann survived a sketchy first three innings and lasted seven, allowing seven hits and two walks for the win. He improved his record to 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA. Bryce Harper hit a solo homer and a sacrifice fly to lead the Washington offense.

The pitching: Zimmermann entered the game with wins of 1-0 against Cincinnati and 2-0 against Atlanta before shutting down the tough Detroit lineup. Zimmermann went almost exclusively with a four-seam fastball and slider, telling reporters that his changeup and curve didn't feel right. Zimmerman slogged through tough times early. After the Detroit leadoff hitter, Austin Jackson, lined out to right to start the game, Torii Hunter reached on an error by Washington first baseman Adam LaRoche. The Tigers usually make the pitcher pay for errors, and Miguel Cabrera made a bid to do it, but his line drive was caught by shortstop Ian Desmond going to his right. Hunter, who had to think the ball was going through, was thrown out off first base by Desmond.

Fielder led off the second against Zimmermann by smashing a curve off the center field fence for a double. But Andy Dirks and Jhonny Peralta each beat pitches into the ground for outs and Fielder didn't advance before the Tigers were out of the inning. With two out in the third, Hunter doubled to left off a slider and Cabrera ripped a fastball into right field to drive in Hunter. But Zimmermann worked out of it by walking Fielder and striking out Dirks swinging at a slider. After that, Zimmerman cruised through the next four innings, giving up three hits and retiring the side in order twice.

Sanchez entered the game 8-0 lifetime against the Nationals and he deserved a better fate in this one. One of the runs against him scored on a sacrifice fly, another scored on an unlikely homer and another scored on a throwing error. Sanchez worked around a couple infield hits in the second inning against the Tigers defense, which is never quite tight. The infield hits loaded the bases with two outs, but Zimmerman was due up and he grounded into a force out. Sanchez pitched well enough to win, but he didn't receive enough offensive or defensive support from himself or his teammates

The hitting: Starting Harper with soft stuff isn't always the best idea. In the third, Harper batted with one out and Denard Span on third after triple. The Tigers played the infield up and Sanchez threw a changeup (86 MPH), hoping for a ground ball. Instead, Harper lifted it into left field for a sacrifice fly, giving the Nats a 1-0 lead. In the fifth, Sanchez started Harper with a curve (81 MPH), which Harper deposited into the right field seats to give the Nats a 3-1 lead. Detroit catcher Alex Avila told reporters that it was the first curve Harper saw in the game, adding that one doesn't normally expect that first curve of the game on the first pitch of an at-bat to leave the yard. Most hitters aren't looking for the curve ball there. But Nationals manager Davey Johnson said in his postgame press conference Harper doesn't have to go up looking for the curve because he tracks the ball so well that he can adjust quickly. Harper is hitting .313 with 10 homers and 20 RBI.

The base running: You wouldn't expect LaRoche to beat Hunter's right field arm from second to third, and that's not exactly what happened in the fourth inning, either. With runners at first and second and one out in the Washington fourth, Kurt Suzuki flied out to Hunter in medium right. Surprisingly, LaRoche took off for third. Hunter made a strong throw, but it bounced off the infield grass by the third base cutout, struck LaRoche's arm on the way up and caromed over third baseman Cabrera's head. Sanchez admitted to being late backing up the play. The ball went into a camera well attached to the third base dugout and LaRoche was awarded a base for the overthrow, which plated him to give the Nats a 2-1 lead. LaRoche explained to reporters after the game that he took the chance because Zimmerman was due up with two outs, so third base was worth a try. That aside, forcing the Tigers to throw the ball around is never a bad strategy, though it didn't always work. In the first inning, Span got himself picked off at first base by Sanchez after starting the game with a single.

The fielding: Besides Sanchez not backing up Hunter's throw at third, the Tigers had some other moments. Span's single fell between the shortstop, left fielder and center fielder. The Tigers had a play on third against Span when he tripled in the third, but second baseman Omar Infante's relay from right wasn't even close, forcing Cabrera well up the left field line. Two straight infield hits in the second could have cost the Tigers, but they didn't. With two out and a runner on first in the Washington second, Danny Espinosa bunted in front of the plate and Avila couldn't pounce in time to throw him out at first. Next up, Suzuki hit a soft single that never passed the infield grass in front of shortstop. The bases were loaded. Both are tough defensive plays, especially the second, but the Tigers don't have defensive playmakers at those positions. The Tigers got out of it, anyway. Zimmerman, the next hitter, batted into a force out to end the inning.

Strategic moves: On April 26, Zimmermann threw a complete game, 1-0 shutout at the Reds, giving up four hits and throwing just 91 pitches. On May 1, Zimmermann threw eight shutout innings at Atlanta, allowing two hits and striking out eight in 107 pitched. Wednesday, Zimmerman was at 101 pitches, 72 strikes, through seven innings. Johnson said he thought about sending Zimmermann against the Tigers in the eighth, but, because of a Tuesday rainout, Zimmermann was on a week of rest instead of the usual four days. The first Tigers due up in the eighth were Cabrera and Fielder. So, Johnson just went to the pen for fresh arms -- Tyler Clippard in the eighth and Rafael Soriano in the ninth. It worked, as it usually does.

Clippard gave the Tigers a chance in the eighth, walking Dirks and Peralta with two out and Avila coming up. Avila hit a two-run homer in Houston to beat the Astros last Friday night. The left-handed hitting catcher also is batting .186 -- .211 against right handers and .067 against lefties. Tigers manager Jim Leyland said in the Detroit Free Press that he probably would have sent Victor Martinez up against a left hander, but, in this case, he said he hoped Avila "runs into one" like he did in Houston. Avila struck out swinging at a 94 MPH fastball from Clippard, but Leyland said he was satisfied that Avila got a couple good swings.

What now: Washington (18-15) remains two games behind Atlanta, which beat Cincinnati, 7-2. Detroit (19-12) remains 1 1/2 games ahead of Kansas City, which lost to Baltimore, 5-3. The Tigers remain an impressive 8-4 against clubs at or above .500. The Nationals are 9-12 against those teams. The Nationals and Tigers will finish off this rain-shortened, two-game series Thursday (1:05 PST). The Tigers' scheduled starter, Doug Fister (4-0, 2.48) hasn't thrown a clunker all year. Washington starter Dan Haren (3-3, 5.01) has thrown some clunkers, but he lasted a combined 14 innings in his last two starts against good hitting clubs (Cincinnati and Atlanta), allowing only three earned runs.

Nationals shape up as new NL East dynasty

The National League East has been a division of local dynasties. The Atlanta Braves won it for 11 straight years. Then the Philadelphia Phillies won it five straight times. Time for a new dynasty. The Washington Nationals.

Bryce Harper is up for the Washington Nationals for the whole season in 2013. He will be good for a very long time. So, one supposes, will the Nationals (MissChatter/Creative Commons).

By BILL PETERSON

Big Leagues in Los Angeles

The Atlanta Braves won the National League East every year from 1995 through 2005, rebooted and returned in 2010 with a consistently strong team. But not strong enough to win the division again.

The Philadelphia Phillies were primed to become the division's next kingpin, but that didn't happen right away. The New York Mets combined young stars David Wright and Jose Reyes with Carlos Delgado's last good year and Carlos Beltran's best year to win the division in 2006, when they were easily the National League's best team. 

The Mets were going to win the NL East again in 2007. They held a seven-game lead through Sept. 12. But the Phillies went to Shea Stadium and swept three from the Mets, cutting the difference to 3 1/2 games and starting up a race. Turns out, the Mets lost 12 of their last 17 and the Phillies won 13 of their last 17 to sneak past the Mets by a game. By then, the Phillies had a core of Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Cole Hamels in place. Aided by astute pitching additions such as Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, the Phillies would win the division five straight times, adding on six playoff series victories, two NL pennants and a World Championship.

Along, then, came 2012, which began with Howard and Utley on the disabled list. The Phillies couldn't cover and went to the All-Star break with a 37-50 record, losing 12 of their last 15 and falling to 14 games out of first place. Ryan and Utley were back in the lineup for the second half and the Phillies were their old selves, 44-31 after the All-Star break as they rallied to the fringe of the wild card race. 

By then, though, the division was changed, maybe for a very long time.

A young group of talent with the Washington Nationals leaped forward, managed by the great Davey Johnson. From 69 wins in 2010 to 80 wins in 2011, the Nationals already were 49-34 at the 2012 All-Star break, and they just never let go, even though the Braves stayed right with them and the Phillies began winning consistently.

Now, 2013 is coming, and it's just impossible to predict that anyone but Washington will win this division. The Nationals are even better now than at the start of last year. Bryce Harper is up this time for the whole season. Kurt Suzuki, who substantially upgraded their catching after a mid-season trade, is around for the whole year. Jayson Werth is back after missing half of last season with a wrist injury. The Nationals traded for a good center fielder, Denard Span. They signed a good free agent, Rafael Soriano, as their new closer. Stephen Strasburg will not be limited to 160 innings.

And all of that will be added to an impressive core of young, established talent. Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Ross Detwiler, Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen and Drew Storen all will be between 25 and 29 years old in 2013. The Nats also brought back free agent Adam LaRoche, the next guy down from Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto among National League first basemen.

The only way to ruin this team is at the negotiating table, and that's not coming around for another nine months. So, make way for the Nationals. A lot of people believe the Braves will make trouble for them. We don't. Sometimes, we think the Phillies might have one last campaign, and that if they can go to it with all their guys for the whole year, they might teach these kids lesson. But the news coming from spring training said Halladay is out of velocity and command, and Lee didn't get people out, and that staff full of aces might be down to Cole Hamels.

Of all the clubs across the National League, the Nationals are the easiest to pencil in as a division winner. Last year, the Nats were among the best offensive clubs in the National League. This year, they might be the best, certainly the best in the NL East. Their pitching staff -- starting rotation and bullpen -- is right there on top of the NL with Cincinnati, if not a little ahead. Defensively, they are plus up the middle with Suzuki, Espinosa, Desmond and Span, and all of those guys can kick in offensively. Balls hit to the left side will have to deal with Zimmerman and Harper. Almost the entire team is younger than 30, but the Nats also have key veterans like LaRoche, Werth and Dan Haren who have, between them, been on nine postseason teams outside of Washington. And they have the best manager going.

Johnson is 70 years old, he has 16 years of managing in the big leagues, and he has finished first six times and second seven times. It says volumes about what has happened in baseball management that Johnson didn't work for ten years, from 2001 through 2010, because Johnson isn't the kind of guy who's sitting behind his desk in his underwear at one in the afternoon waiting for the general manager to come down and dictate the lineup. But he knows better than anyone what to do when the light goes on. So, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo took a lot of heat last year for sitting Strasburg after 160 innings, but if he's willing and able to work with Johnson, then he's got something going that a lot of other GMs in the game don't.

Only one little chink in this armor presents itself, and it is the kind of thing that can hurt. There are times in life when you need to get a left-handed hitter out in the sixth or seventh inning to keep the game under control, and the Nats don't have an obvious left-handed reliever for the job. Their two good lefties from last year's bullpen, Mike Gonzalez and Tom Gorzelanny, both signed as free agents with Milwaukee. Veteran lefty Zach Duke made the Nats as a reliever, but he is a four-pitch guy without a magic bullet and he has been slapped around by left-handed hitters for a .748 OPS in his career entering 2013. 

Maybe it won't matter. Maybe Washington's starters will go seven innings every day. Maybe the Nationals will score so much that they can take a punch in the sixth or seventh inning. When you scan this club looking for flaws, all that emerges is this one little, common situation, but games turn on this situation. Chances are, the Nats will whistle past it. Although the Nats will not sneak up on people this year, taking them down is going to be a big job.

Our favorite candidate is the Phillies, assuming, for the purposes of forecast, that Halladay will not be great and that Lee is just working on pitches this spring. Along with bringing Howard and Utley back for the whole season, the Phillies made some nice upgrades.

Domonic Brown finally happened this spring, and he profiles as a fast, powerful right fielder along the lines of Atlanta's Jason Heyward and Miami's Giancarlo Stanton. The Texas Rangers made a big mistake in trading away Michael Young, and Philadelphia is the beneficiary. In his best days, Young was a 200-hit machine and, more recently, he excelled in a super-utility role to help the Rangers win two pennants. He's 35 now and he was down last year, but he's playing for another contract and the Phillies are giving him third base. Expect a productive season from him.

The Phillies paid Jonathan Papelbon $11 million last year to be their closer, then kept losing leads before they could give him the ball. During the winter, they signed Mike Adams, who is about as good as it gets for an eighth-inning reliever. And Phillippe Aumont is ready to make a contribution. Seattle took Aumont No. 11 overall in the 2007 draft, then shipped him to the Phillies in exchange for Lee in 2009. The Phillies moved Aumont to the bullpen, he started getting people out, and now appears to be the time for the 6-foot-7 right hander. 

Progressing year by year, the Braves reached the playoffs in 2012 as a strong first wild card with 94 wins. But they made some changes and they're licking some wounds. They might have too many holes for a return to the playoffs.

Catcher Brian McCann, a key piece of this team, is entering his age 29 season off shoulder surgery. He hasn't played all spring and, even if he does return before the end of April, his throwing arm will be an issue. Zapping out base stealers has never been a strong part of his game -- 24 percent against a league average of 27 percent during his career. Chipper Jones, now retired, was still producing last year and the Braves don't have an obvious replacement, though the spring numbers suggest that a platoon of Chris Johnson from the right and Juan Francisco from the left might work. Second baseman Dan Uggla suffered a big offensive decline in 2012 and he is entering his age 33 season. And Brandon Beachy, who led the NL with a 2.00 ERA when he went under the knife last year, still is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The starting rotation is questionable. Tim Hudson is 37, and he's always been pretty good, but it's pretty easy to name eight or nine guys who you would rather have as a No. 1 starter. Kris Medlen went 10-1 as a midseason call-up last year, but it's not established that he can maintain for a whole season. Lefty Paul Maholm is 31 with two straight solid seasons behind him (3.66 ERA, 351 innings combined). The Braves will hope for more of the same and better yet from 25-year-old lefty Mike Minor. Julio Teheran, 22, is thoroughly unproven. The Braves do have three very solid performers for their bullpen in Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty.

The Braves made headlines by bringing in the two Upton brothers, Bossman Junior and Justin, but it's not obvious that the Uptons are upgrades, for they replace two dynamic players in Martin Prado and Michael Bourn. Prado, in particular, is one of the game's unsung heroes, a .300 hitter and .800 OPS performer at five positions with presence of mind and flair for the dramatic. He doesn't show up in the baseball columns, but he definitely shows up in the games. The Braves might miss him more than they know, but they're still powerful contenders in a three-team race with Washington and Philadelphia.

The top three will feast on a dreary bottom two, the New York Mets and Miami Marlins, both of which are scandalized by their own ownership.

The National League, in recent years, has suffered from the travails of its three big city teams -- the Mets, the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers appear to have solved their problems with new ownership, the Cubs have, perhaps, intensified their problems with new ownership, and the Mets are muddling along with the same ownership. Mired in debt and entangled in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme for the last several years, Mets owner Fred Wilpon appears no closer to building a contender. The Mets have some guys who might someday be somebody, but right now they've got nobody except for third baseman David Wright.

We're not as hard on Miami owner Jeffrey Loria as a lot of commentators are, but we're not as easy on him as Bud Selig, either. Loria is under a lot of heat for unloading several established players from his 2012 club, never mind that the Marlins' $118 million outfit was a last place team in 2012. If you're going to finish last, you might as well spend only $35 million, which the Marlins are paying this year. Either way, Loria's sell-off doesn't approach the most outrageous sell-off in Marlins history, which would have been Wayne Huizenga's fire sale right after the Marlins won the 1997 World Series.

That certainly wasn't the only Marlins folly under Huizenga. Putting the team in Fort Lauderdale for all those years was even worse. This franchise needed to be in Miami all along, but Huizenga is a Fort Lauderdale guy, so that's how it went. The more rabid South Florida baseball fans are in Miami, particularly the Cuban community. The Marlins might never sign a big time Cuban defector because of it. The pressure would be too great. But the Marlins stand to work up a solid base of fans there. 

So, all was looking great for the Marlins going to 2012 as they were set to open Marlins Park in the Little Havana section of Miami and Loria ponied up with a $118 million payroll.

Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox were hoping to unload manager Ozzie Guillen before his mouth damaged the franchise, and Loria was glad to take him -- just in time for Guillen's mouth to damage the Marlins. Proclaiming, "I love Fidel Castro," just as the Marlins were about to open a new stadium in Little Havana might have been the most tone-deaf remark of 2012, at least right with any number of statements made during the election season. The season just had to fail. A Miami baseball team with a manager saying he loves Fidel Castro is a public relations disaster even if the team does win.

So, the Marlins are starting over, and they might as well. Guillen is gone, and so are key players from last season's belly-up ball club. Loria still is there, which isn't great news. But it's a new season, and that's always great news.